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1/27 06z QPF summary ICON: GFS: GGEM: UKMET: GEFS: GFS AI AIGFS: EURO: AIFS: EPS:

Tip started the thread. Death Knoll. (Insert Psycho babble response) j/k John

22" after a big day 2

Grocery stores are quiet around here because nobody can get out of their unplowed neighborhoods to get to them, lmao. VDOT, where art thou?

I think today is a day where each model can jump 200-250 miles in either direction. Once within 72-96 hours that’s much less likely as you get 50-100 mile moves and then the typical 25-50 shift within 24-48 hours

I’m extrapolating a big nor’easter. Somewhere.

I think we got about 2 ...maybe 3 cycles remaining. After that, it's probably a consensus go or no go

Snowed on and off much of the day yesterday... picked up around 2" of pure fluff. Snowing again lightly now with 1-3" in the forecast.

I know its the 84hr NAM but the uppers look much for like the EURO-AI then the EURO.

WB 12Z 12K NAM at range:

Timing is everything with this weekend's system. The Euro phases the upper low later and farther east, leaving the mountains with cold air aloft but limited divergence and moisture. The GFS phases earlier, allowing stronger upper-level divergence to overlap deeper moisture and throw precip back into the Appalachians.

Going out to sea is more a product of this closing off too early than issues with the trough orientation.

I was responding to Donnie 2 states.

The key points to remember for today IMO 1. the key piece of energy that will generate the trough lalter this week is still far north in Canada and there is sparse sampling up there. 2. The trough down south later this week has to take on a negative tilt sooner than later and further west for this storm to get close enough to the coast to give us a major storm. If it waits to go negative further east the storm will ride up the coast further east. 3. The reason the trough has to go negative earlier and further west is because the upward motion in the atmosphere is on the northeastern flank of the trough promotes heavier precip and this will be centered over the metro if the storm is close to the coast and out to sea if it goes negative to late.

Well, at least the possibility of it going north is pretty much dead lol. .

You want zero interaction and or have the kicker late or non existent

It might even miss them, per the euro

Sure. I think a scraper is most likely. Or just a total miss

No doubt it’s a great looking set up…at least as it currently stands, but we all know these little things change as the said timeframe approaches, and that’s where the uncertainty lies. Hopefully they change slightly in our favor.

The ridge axis so far west gives me more hope this won’t slip out to sea. It’s in a place where honestly it’s better for the Apps. If it was say over the Dakotas that would be more of a problem. But a couple of tweaks which are very doable at this stage and we’re back to monster solutions.

8.5° Since I got a PWS in 2013, the lowest temperature I have recorded was 3.6°. Perhaps that gets dethroned this week.

That’s ridiculous, but we shouldn’t need laws to do things like return your shopping cart and clean your car of dangerous debris.

From past experiences once there is a kicker its pretty much game over

Was just coming here to post this! Big changes from even just a few days ago