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  2. Eskimo Joe
    While everyone is focused on the severe weather risk, we've busted into Heat Advisory criteria south of I-70. Some places pushing 110s for heat index.
  3. Intensewind002
    1.33" and still raining heavily here, fairly frequent lightning for 2 hours now
  4. ncjoaquin
    Being on a lake in a storm is the worst!
  5. SnoSki14
    Yeah that's where the biggest threat would be. No surprise here they are the tornado capital of the northeast
  6. CoastalWx
    I wonder if this stuff is gonna screw up SNE later.
  7. yoda
    Another MCD for C into S VA into NC with STWatch needed soon in it... I guess we will get lumped into that Mesoscale Discussion 1649 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Areas affected...ortions of southern Virginia...western North Carolina...far northeast Tennessee...southeastern West Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181756Z - 181900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue to increase in intensity this afternoon with a risk for damaging wind gusts. Trends are being monitored and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop across the higher terrain of WV, NC and VA at 1755z, and also along a confluence zone extending from northern VA into western NC. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer has contributed to MLCAPE of 2000 to 3000 J/kg and low-level lapse rates of 8.5 to 9 deg/C. In the presence of minimal CINH, storms should continue to increase in coverage through the afternoon and move generally east. Shear in the cloud-bearing layer will average 20-25 kts across northern portions of the discussion area and 15-20 kts farther south, sufficient for updraft organization and a risk for damaging wind gusts. Trends are being monitored and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed shortly. ..Bunting/Thompson.. 07/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 36938187 37458132 37957998 38207909 38197842 37907734 37557681 36927645 36077666 35487802 35237929 35118087 35298160 35678207 36228209 36938187 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
  8. kdxken
    Rain and heavy smoke. For those on the spectrum enjoy.
  9. high risk
    I think they're going to do what I suggested earlier. Put a tornado box to our east and northeast where the better low-level shear is in place, and put a severe box over the rest of MD and northern and central VA.
  10. SnowenOutThere
    I suppose memorable is a sliding scale. I didn’t mean to imply we’ll see a widespread tornado or severe outbreak, but I think it might be a day where we reference it by date in the future when discussing upcoming severe systems.
  11. yoda
  12. Psychguy
    Tornado watch just issued.
  13. NJwx85
    Tornado Watch
  14. high risk
    It's going to be an active day for sure, but I'm not sure I'm ready to say that it will be memorable. You're spot on about the high end instability, but while the shear is good, low-level shear is marginal and might actually decrease through the afternoon as the warm front advances to the northeast.
  15. Voyager
    Yeah, it got better here too Is the rain more widespread that originally forecast? I thought there would be a distinct lull, and even potential clearing between the first round, and what comes later, but looking at radar, clouds and rain still stretch across most of the central part of the state from southwest to northeast.
  16. AlexD1990
    Interestingly, stops at AA county
  17. roardog
    I feel like there’s just been a lack of typhoons in general. The entire Pacific has been very quiet for years if my memory is correct, even record low at times. So if we get an active Pacific season like snowman keeps saying then that is another thing that’s different than recent years.
  18. AlexD1990
    Radarscope just lit up with a tornado watch
  19. 87storms
    One of the more humid days I’ve experienced here.
  20. SolidIcewx
    Ive mowed only once in the last 5-6 weeks
  21. 87storms
    Deep thunder in the distance. Had to cut my hoops sesh short bc quite frankly I don’t like the idea of the smoke hiding the lightning. The grass here is mostly green…kinda wild seeing others to the east struggling to get precip.
  22. MN Transplant
    92/79 for a 109 HI
  23. high risk
    Time for that box, SPC.... Wind profiles definitely favor rotation today. Whether the rotation can be achieved at low levels is less clear.
  24. Ginx snewx
    Smoke um if ya got um
  25. SnowenOutThere
    I think we may be in the best severe setup of the year. We’re over 5000 CAPE, have 40 kt 0-6km shear, and okay enough ML lapse rates. There’s even 100+ surface helicity according to mesoanalysis! The smoke seems to also be inhibiting storm crowding by keeping or LL lapse rates down too. The storms now popping up on radar all have the bean look of supercellular development. We may be in for a memorable day. @vortex95 @high risk@WxUSAF@wxmeddler would love to hear your updated thoughts as storms begin firing! Also, just checked and our composite indices are crazy! We’re at 8 in Nova for supercells and 1 for sig tor (2 east of Baltimore)
  26. NEG NAO
    there is not going to be any clearing north of Trenton in NJ this afternoon - look at radar - all the clearing and building unstable air will be Trenton and points east and south and thats why I think those areas will get the most out of round 2 starting later today and tonight
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