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HRRR way out in fantasy land is pretty dry. Hope that isn't a trend today in the models.

With the ridge out west and confluence laid over SE Canada the main shortwave has no choice but to slowly dig

No it has nothing to do with surface features. The upper levels just aren't quite supportive of a significant coastal impact. The 500mb heights on Friday from the Atlantic south of Nova Scotia directly west to the NY/PA border are too low. There is too much suppression. That forces the ULL all the way down to Savannah Ga and there's not enough time to develop ridging in NY State and recover the baroclinic zone closer to the coast. An area of low surface pressure responds to the upper level divergence, forming and tracking well offshore.

So it's really early but ...12z NAM noticeably west of 06z with less confluence at 12h

I remember when Forky said during warm spells there would never be BN months again. We are beating old normals too.

Only -6 here, no fake cold (light snow)

I feel pretty good when normally conserative GSP has maps like this out and this is only through 7am Sunday

12Z HRRR came in bone dry. But it's not time to look at that yet.

And the cheese stands alone. The 6Z EPS ensemble mean is the last model of any I know of (to be fair I didn't check the Tanzanian - that's an inside joke on the weather boards) to still show appreciable snow inland from the coast (due to a few western hits) and just about all other models aren't even showing snow at the coast anymore (not counting Montauk). The CMC and GFS ensembles have finally thrown in the towel also. Yes, we're still 3+ days out so it's still possible for significant shifts west, but that's not the way to bet, especially in the time of AI models, which I don't recall making big shifts inside 3 days (but could be wrong on that).

5°. Station in Darlington hit -1°

35.5 here-we wont get every storm. We've had 4 big events and it's only the end of January. I'll take that any day

DT has been bad for a long time but that may be the worst snow map I have ever seen

My forecasting approach was developed from working at the NWS, and as such, I tend to engage in a more cautious and incremental process. That said, I will go ahead and mention that the probabilities are increasing for the potential of blizzard conditions along portions of the NC and SE Virginia coastal areas.

Respectfully disagree, the Feb 6th period is gaining a lot of traction over night. Euro Ai, ensemble, etc etc, shortwave gets trapped between ridge out west and some leftover confluence. Reminds me of Feb 4-5 95 for some reason

-1.5 in Sparta before I left for work. I got all the way to -13 on the car driving through the low flat spots in Lafayette which are plentiful on the north end of town toward Rosses Corner. Random nerd land question. What's the "official" meteorological protocol for rounding off the negative numbers? +1.5 would round to 2. But what about -1.5? Typically five and above rounds up, which would actually mean -1. Are they rounding based on stated value or absolute value? My home weather station seems to prefer the first method. I noticed early this morning -0.5 was rounding off to a low of 0, but as soon as it clicked to -0.6, it began reporting the low as -1, so I am curious.

2015: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62470-january-2026-obs-and-discussion/page/84/#comment-7969408

I'm in the Charlotte area and typically listen to Brad P. but I like to sample around for other forecasts. It's really telling how all the forecasts differ. Brad P. hasn't released his call yet, but saying the 2-4 is likely where Allan here is saying 5-10. I'm no met and I really only lurk most of the time, but even I can see that the next 12-24 hours will be make or break for those higher end totals. Hoping for at least 4 here in CLT cause we haven't seen that in a LONG time.

If they roll with the mods this morning, yes i believe they will upgrade to a warning with Advisory’s getting issued for the southern valley to the Plateau .

My guess in 40-42 a year on average

-4.6 Dec -1.2 Jan IJD Just looked at ORH snow 37 this month wow

I'm not sure. But if one were to only look at the Euro OP runs for 1/27 12z, 1/28 0z, 1/28 12z, and 1/29 0z..one would think it's coming/trending closer.

I'll be watching the Raritan Bay for ice development. Hasn't had significant ice for a decade.

One thing that could be a positive for the Piedmont is if the storm continues to tick south that initial deformation band will more likely settle over the area.

Most sites were +3 after 19-20 days. Not usually easy to erase that in the last third of the month but we did with room to spare in most locations. Stacking BN winter mos lately, quite a streak.