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The euro twins being tepid is kind of concerning, as typically, you’d expect them to handle this kind of setup the best.

AI ensembles look more juiced through 120, let’s see if that translates for us.

AIFS looks good. Would be a nice little 4-6” cleanup Saturday morning

Check this Mammoth cam out.... https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

GEFS ensemble guidance was not fully onboard either and the Euro - AI was further east - southeast and could easily follow the Euro OP

See what the euro ensembles sure at this range

Your mood suffers terrribly when runs go bad . You simply cannot control yourself in the posts and it entirely changes the tenor of the forum . Especially early in the morning

melting here slowly-up to 45

This is probably the more rational approach. I recall someone saying we’d probably be happier not having access to op runs beyond day 5 lol.

Euro at H5 is rather bizarre. It just squashes the whole block south.

It was awful in the medium range on 1/18-19 too. Skynet crushed it.

I wouldn't worry about the Euro since it's all alone. However this is a delicate setup, so something could easily go wrong to cause no storm for our area. At least we have a chance of seeing something big, and it'll be interesting tracking it over the next few days.

Loathe the fact the EURO won't get on board and pretty much supports DT's thoughts on this

Eastern sub winter.

Been a pretty lackluster month up here compared to Jan, 3.3".

We've been here before. Nobody knows what this storm is gonna do. Get it till Friday still showing this out come an maybe I'll bite. Still wayyy too much time for this to go either way. But i'd sell weathergeek an snowman to make it happen

I think you need to look at a D5-6 system in the aggregate right now. Euro has consistently been the least amplified but it has overall come northwest over the last few cycles. The 06z run was more amped than this one but most of the previous runs were not. Other guidance continues to trend toward a pretty signficiant system. Also, both AI models have been bullish on this which has generally been a positive signal this winter. You have a solid Hudson Bay block but it’s not exceptionally strong. You also have a potent shortwave that is already fairly amplified out west of us and the block is the one thing stopping it from being too amped. Taking all of these factors together, I think this is in a pretty good spot right now. There’s no guarantees. For a D6 system, it has more support than we typically see.

Regular Euro vs. the world... as of right now.

Is this administration sending them bad CONUS initialized data?

The fact that I’m living rent free in your head from an obvious joke of a post is the definition of emotional.

EPS mean stronger vort than previous run. Too soon to tell for qpf, mslp, but I don’t think its a giant step back.

If we are not going to get big snow I hope for something like the EURO to happen. We don't get it, no one does. Even looking at GEFS and EPS, there are not a lot of big snow producers. I see a lot of people are buying in due to large number of op models showing big snow for their areas, but IMO they are setting themselves up for disappointment. Model agreement as we know doesn't mean storm will happen.

AI is among us?

The fact that Will has been unaffected after all the shots this region has taken this decade should concern us all.

no snow for you...you come back one year