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  2. WinstonSalemArlington
    This was Accuweather's forecast for last winter:
  3. WinstonSalemArlington
  4. Ginx snewx
    Full moon goon to new moon goon. Two weeks later the biggest goon of them all.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't mean this to be insulting, either....I have had some brutal forecasts....anyone being honest and transparent has.
  6. strongwxnc
    High end totals out of GSP Forecast totals
  7. OSUmetstud
    I deleted that because the RONI/ONI standard deviations for OISST and ERSSTv6 are very similar which means it must have been scaled despite the differences.
  8. CoastalWx
    You guys had snow though iirc? Pretty sure it even changed down on the upper cape.
  9. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  10. Typhoon Tip
    Tomorrow's sounding is interesting meteorologically ... which means nothing to a snow-obsessed, dystopian d-drip seeking audience but it is what it is... This is the first time I've seen the 900 to 800 mb layer be that cool modeled so far this autumn, but the wind being W and paralleling the hydrostatic thickness contours, that means zip actual CAA. So, the west wind is sourcing from a mild region and albeit feebler sun work to offset about evenly. We just end up with -2 at 800 mb over a milder llv ... steepened the lapse rate.. Probably will cause gustier chop to the wind. 2 meter's possibly approaching 20 C though, and above normal.
  11. WinterWolf
    This was 10/30/20….looking from Chesire to the ENE, toward the southeast side of Southington. Chesire had no accumulation, but as you can see, there is certainly accumulation off in the distance toward Southington.
  12. bluewave
    Even the ONI wasn’t able to fully capture the full magnitude of the warming with the 2023-2024 event. Key Mechanisms and Findings Dual Warming Centers: Unlike typical El Niño events that center primarily in the eastern Pacific, the 2023–2024 event featured asynchronous double spatial peaks, combining a central Pacific peak (driven by zonal advective and thermocline feedbacks) with eastern Pacific warming. [1, 2] Synergistic Amplification: The dual Pacific warming centers worked together with an eastward-extended North Atlantic jet stream to amplify sea surface temperatures across multiple tropical basins.[1] Record Temperature Impact: Sea surface temperature anomalies accounted for roughly 92% of the interannual global warming spike, pushing the July 2023–June 2024 average global mean surface temperature to a record 1.58 °C above pre-industrial levels. [1]
  13. Stormlover74
    And euro hasn't been overly enthused. Could just be a quick quarter to half inch and thats it
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Either way, it all boils down to a warmer baseline.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Pretty sure Forky missed the nice season we had last year...honest question @forkyfork, what would you need to see to forecast a decent winter? It was petty obvious to a lot of folks that the combination of high solar/very strong easterly QBO and modest-eastern biased La Nina would yield a plethora of chances last winter.... I get that the ridges were larger, troughs smaller as compared to similar patterns 50 years ago...not the point-
  16. ChescoWx
    Of interest the NWS COOP site Phoenixville 1E recorded a low of 32 degrees on Tuesday morning the 6th this is the 20th earliest freeze since records began in 1890. Their average 1st freeze is October 23rd. We should see a beautiful fall day today with highs a few degrees above normal near 70. We turn a bit cooler for the weekend with rain holding off till later Sunday afternoon with the remnants of the Hurricane in the Gulf. We look to turn much chillier again by the middle of next week.
  17. ChescoWx
    Of interest the NWS COOP site Phoenixville 1E recorded a low of 32 degrees on Tuesday morning the 6th this is the 20th earliest freeze since records began in 1890. Their average 1st freeze is October 23rd. We should see a beautiful fall day today with highs a few degrees above normal near 70. We turn a bit cooler for the weekend with rain holding off till later Sunday afternoon with the remnants of the Hurricane in the Gulf. We look to turn much chillier again by the middle of next week.
  18. Keith Central PA
    Well you can't get negative snow, can you?..It will snow in NYC this winter but it will have temps above normal.It's going to be a warm winter, every Super Nino has.But snow is all timing and luck.
  19. jconsor
    Impressive microwave pass confirming the last recon message which showed a closed eyewall. https://x.com/yconsor/status/2108197204842446876
  20. Brian5671
    Looks a bit slower on overnight modeling as the cane stays a bit west and slower...upton reduced to 40% chance of showers here (after 2pm) from an all day washout yesterday
  21. TauntonBlizzard2013
    That October 2020 snow event was awesome. Weirdly, one of my favorite weather events. Rain changing to snow and accumulating on October is not something you see around here. It wasn’t a dusting either. I think we got like 4-5”
  22. roardog
    Forky likes to oversimplify the atmosphere. If it was that simple then why did December 2006 through the first three quarters of January 2007 have a more hostile pattern than the same period in 1997-1998? 2006-2007 was a much, much weaker east based El Niño.
  23. Maggie Valley Steve
    I don't see that much change in my thinking on rainfall amounts for the Mountains. I am seeing some indication of higher winds, particularly for the Ridgeline and the Valleys as Isaias is absorbed by the trough and transitions into an upper low. Wind gusts to 50 look possible along the Ridges and in the Valley areas gusts to 40 could be possible.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    We all agree it's an uphill battle, but it's the close-minded, bandying about of absolutes in a divisive manner that folks take umbrage to....it's a nuisance at the very least, and a barrier to constructive dialogue at worst.
  25. WestBabylonWeather
    When should we have a better idea on Sunday timing?
  26. Today
  27. CT Valley Snowman
    I think going below average is fine, but I have too much respect for SNE climo, the CC related propensity for more extreme precip events including large snowfalls, and the 2nd half of winter "wildcard" pattern like 82-83 to just go complete ratter. I'd probably honestly go 25-40" in Boston rather than 15-30" if one was using 15" increments.
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