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Just based on what I see, I think after the 15th we turn mild. Then late month winter tries to return.

PNA losing relevancy after mid Feb due to changing wavelengths. -PNA becomes more favorable for snows here than a +PNA by latter Feb.

Also have to remember peak climo too…if it pans out, with a good track, it’ll easily be snow just away from the coast with a storm of that magnitude. And SST are frigid so that will help(the shore/and everybody) as well.

If models were a buffet... I'd take a side of GFS for this weekend, scoop of the UKMET for midweek, and for my main course I'll take the Euro for next weekend. Once the desert cart comes around for late feb / early march, I'll see what I want off of that.

Are we getting that inverted trough into Connecticut by us?

We were planning to head out after kid is out of school Fri. May have to pass unless loudoun cancels.

A decent storm signal, but as of now still a 240 hr (well, slightly under) pipe dream.

INCOMING.... not sure if it's rain, sleet or snow. Probably rain at least to start but it may be snow further north into Hampton roads.

Much like the addition of lanes to 440, such capital and maintenance expenditures on our roadways do little to tame the natural behaviors of area wildlife (Nissan Altimas).

Is it possible that the pattern is beginning to feel the warming ENSO?

Too bad Lake Erie is frozen over, but hopefully the front passing can stir up some nice squalls.

No way, not there, lol

I don’t think there will be some stupid cold antecedent, this will be on the edge for ptype

We can hope. But usually when your idea the southern extent you get screwed... Unless you have a massive block that makes it slide south.. But it is still time to track.. So that is good

The model which started this train has lost interest. Since the 12z ensembles are in, my 7 model blend has dropped to 5.15".

The one difference I would note and I'll use the last storm as an example. When I cleared the board at 10pm I recorded 15.8 inches depth as the snow had ended. The next morning there was another 0.5 so I added that for a storm total of 16.3. I'm sure if I measured depth that morning it was probably closer to a 15 inch depth.

My good friend Andy organizes and founded the Western MA Backcountry Alliance. (Also covers S VT) It's a great group of people. Check it out sometime. https://www.wmassbcalliance.org/

Waste your time.. We appreciate your input!!

The legacy EPS and the EPS-AI are getting stronger and stronger with the -PNA

This winter has been relatively boring for me, given I was abroad for the only significant snowfall. That said, the retention of this pack is fantastic, the best I've seen since 2015. Once I smashed through the crust I have a couple nice tracks through the cemetery and am able to cross country ski two weeks after the snowfall, and will be able to for the foreseeable. Sledding hills have been taken for granted and are mostly empty. Today was gorgeous for cross country.

If anything, the legacy EPS and the EPS-AI have gotten even stronger with the -PNA since yesterday

Ukie says don't even write off the pre-PD3 event lol Models breaking persistence too quickly has been a thing for as long as I've played this game. In both directions many times. Since most of our winters kinda stink it feels like that only works against us but persistence is a real thing and toning down warmth in the LR has been happening since early fall lol. It doesn't surprise me at all that guidance has been easing off the warmth part of the pattern. Remember JFM 2014? Day 15 warmth was a staple in guidance. Remember how it went lol? We need a pattern change or it will just keep being dry and cold. Looks pretty locked in that flow will be MUCH more active than its been for many weeks. Back off on the warmth and keep sending shortwaves our way every 3-4 days and we're bound to chaos/luck into something.

Repeat of February 2018 incoming

Friday night into Saturday morning looks like a sneaky little system. I could see us getting 1-2” maybe 3”