All Activity

Festive if anything, to open the holiday season. Maybe a whitening on the newly strung garland and lighting. Beats 62 and open golf courses in my world. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, A POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN PRECIPITATION PAIRED WITH SUFFICIENTLY COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MAY SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT. WHILE THERE'S A LARGE SPECTRUM OF PLAUSIBLE OUTCOMES AMONGST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, THE MULTI-ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY FOR 1"+ (10:1) SNOWFALL IN 24 HOURS CENTERED ON SATURDAY-SATURDAY EVENING IS >=60% EVEN AT THIS EXTENDED LEAD TIME. THE ECMWF/EPS DEPICTION HAS BEEN GENERALLY MORE ROBUST THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE SUITES, BUT ULTIMATELY IT'S MUCH TOO FAR OUT FOR SPECIFICS, ASIDE FROM FEELING COMFORTABLE WITH ~60% POPS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. OUR MAIN MESSAGE IS TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES AS THIS TIMEFRAME DRAWS CLOSER FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS TO POST-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL. -LOT

Just great...more wind!

Only looked real quick on phone but next couple weeks look windy? Storm track to west and north of region = CAA.

Too soon. Let the hope and hype build for another 48-72 hours before you crush dreams.

December 2021 was a very warm December in the Eastern US (I think only 2015 was warmer). If we're not going to get any snow in December, then I hope it's a torch. At least it can come back to average at some point in the winter (like January 2022). The worst possible outcome is a cooler December with no snow (like December 2022).

Currently 32.3° with some snow melting. Min was 29° shortly after midnight.

This is unbelievable. Thank you for doing this.

The difference between 0z and 6z on the GFS is stark regarding the long range pattern. I think it likely we deal with warm temps through the first week of December, but that is not set in stone as there is a cold front possibly coming through Dec 6th(up in the air so to speak).

Today will be New York City's (Central Park) 1,395th consecutive day without a 4" (10.2 cm) or above daily snowfall. That will break the record of 1,394 days that was set during February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932.

EURO and GFS going for a coastal around the 5th. I believe Ray said chance of one around that period

Dec 2021 was one of the strongest -PNA's.. what I see on models right now is a "moderate -PNA event" in early Dec. I also don't know that it sustains beyond like a week. We'll see. If it lasts into mid-December that would be a little different from what we have seen this year (where -PNA's last 7-10 days then go away).

Boston, MA - 53” NewYork, NY(Central Park) - 27” Philadelphia, PA - 21” Baltimore, MD- 16” Washington, DC- 13” Albany, NY- 65” Hartford, CT - 61” Providence, RI- 40” Worcester, MA - 71” Hyannis, MA - 33” Burlington, VT - 93” Portland, ME- 75” Concord, NH - 69”

@Stormchaserchuck1 It looks like the record +PNA streak is finally about to come to an end. The ensembles (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) have the most negative long range PNA forecast I’ve seen in a very long time….years in fact

I'm not going to bet you money, maybe another time, but I will bump this on Dec 14. I don't think you're going to get that snow.

@Gawx Just looked at the new ECM zonal wind forecast, this is looking like almost a sure bet for a classic wave reflection event with a rapid recovery and strengthening of the SPV in December

Weekend duster starting to dab out and extended losing the sauce, sad

Good temp inversion this morning. 31 at my house and 38 up in Hazleton which is 1,000ft higher than Tamaqua.

I know @Chambanais pulling hard for the 00z Euro.

Looks like it'll take another day or two to work out the fine details with this lead wave. Lots of moving parts. The large scale pattern really does support a high-end storm evolving out of this immediately following the lead wave. Hope we can sync things up properly to take advantage of it.

Still hovering just above freezing here.

I haven't looked at the UKMET in a while. The 0z is also significantly divergent from the (hideous) GFS as early as day 5 and pretty cold at the end of its 7 day run. It actually tries to get some snow into our area on Sunday with the weak in-between shortwave. Other guidance has this feature very weak or further north. I'm happy with any model run that doesn't send repeated cutoffs to CA. I'd love to see the ECM and EC-AI move away from the southwest cutoff at 0z.

Still look like its getting into Africa before Christmas

A measured 1.5 at 1850’ at 11pm from the clipper. Lull from 10pm on, but starting to pick up slightly as the upslope takes over. .

I usually do not post in this forum but I feel for you guys too. AS I said a few days ago in the Philly forum: Where the hell these long range so called weather gurus snow weenies seeing snow for our area on facebook and other media sources and who are just trying to make a few advertising bucks playing up the polar vortex bs but the current models are sure are NOT portraying anything like this right now for our area.. Every single snow chance has now dwindle to rain/mix event and also an insignificant rain event at best for our area as the cold dry air is winning the battle. The models have shown only one positive thing in the last two weeks for a major pattern change and a possible major snow event for us but when it will ever occur will just be plain luck. If you old timers recognize the current major pattern shift on the last weeks runs which we have not seen in nearly 6-10 years is identified as the four corner lows which are developing and pushing into the Gulf of America. Then these lows are quickly re-energized with a ton of moisture and are setting up for a good Miller A type of storm event- rain or snow along the east coast. The lows south of New Orleans into Tampa are impressive on the model runs. This is the best look in model runs in a long time as it appears the GOA is opening back up for business, however these low pressure systems are also quickly becoming southern sliders too. The cold dry air that does come through with a cold front is NOT retreating back up into Canada so quickly before the moisture reaches us. Would not be surprised if the Carolina's up to Washington DC sees more accumulating snow then us this year. This pattern is slowly setting up for a lot nuisance mix storm events snow/sleet to rain for our area if this keeps up. A pure snow event will be hard to come by in the next few weeks I basically want a 2-4 in long duration three day rain event asap to get the trees feet wet before the ground freezes and to get runoff back into the soon to be dry streams. Trout fishing and landscaping this spring will be severely hampered too if you do not get some significant rains in the next 2-3 weeks. When LCA declares a drought watch folks,its pretty serious. I have USGS gauging stations in my backyard for the Little Lehigh and if this stream dries up, the businesses will be greatly affected too throughout PA Quote