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Hard to fathom how much cold air is gonna be around yet it’s gonna intrude

Some mixed signals across guidance that suggest maybe spots can hit that criteria with the Feb 1-3 storm threat.

Or 5 TO game against Pittsburgh, that's the one I feel was a blown opportunity.

Sleet incoming at 42.

btw the 3k NAM is ALSO noticeably colder in the upper levels than its 12z run

High was a little further south with better damming signal into the mid atlantic this run. Minor but we only need minor improvements here

Through 12z for those who dont have access:

That’s the classic CAD/overrunning trap: the cold air is stubborn near the ground, but 850–700 mb winds can crank WAA over it. So you don’t dislodge the high, you just ride precipitation over it and introduce a warm nose. The surface map looks invincible, and meanwhile sleet is doing victory laps.

Just a few random thoughts...there've definitely been small but additive bumps SE over the last several runs of the non-GFS guidance. It's largely been caused by the PV over the Upper Midwest/Plains ahead of the storm refusing to lift out at all, along with subtle trends for perhaps a slower ejection of the storm into the Plains (lets the PV press in more ahead of it) and some lingering run-to-run disagreement over how well the storm phases over the southern Plains. Overall, I don't expect more than relatively small adjustments from here on in, but a quick look at how guidance has been trending and what still could change in my eyes... This is the European ensemble mean 500mb heights for the last several runs valid at 12z Sunday. There still are subtle run-to-run adjustments both with the exact placement of the PV and with how well-phased the trough ejecting into the Plains is...to me, the there haven't been substantial trends either way with the PV while the trough has trended perhaps a bit less phased overall. Heights are still rising plenty ahead of the storm and there may be room for a subtle trend back northwest if we see a better phase, but unless we see trends towards the PV lifting out quicker I don't think it makes a huge difference for those who are on the outside looking in for heavy snow. This is just the 500mb height and vorticity trends from the operational Euro...there are not clear trends towards a more or less phased solution overall, though there may be a slight trend for the trough to eject into the Plains slower, which in theory could give the PV a little more of a chance to press in ahead of it. The red circles are the main pieces of energy phasing together with this storm...the Baja low and shortwave diving into Canada have not been fully sampled yet, but will becoming increasingly sampled in the next sets of 0z/12z runs. There may be some opportunity for trends regarding how well the storm phases over those next cycles, though my guess is there won't be a significant trend either way. The shortwave circled in blue isn't really phasing into this, but will help dictate how much the PV presses into the upper Midwest/Plains Lakes north of the storm. My guess is we won't see a notable trend with the PV from here on out, though I've been surprised before. Overall, I think it's the PV over the Plains that is skunking those who needed more of a NW trend than we got and it doesn't seem like that's changing as the storm becomes more imminent. There is still room for subtle trends based on a quicker/slower phase, though any northwest trends won't be huge. It wouldn't shock me if there's enough bump SE before we're done, though I personally don't want that if we can avoid it...

BTW, Good luck with your surgery, hope it goes well!

Yeah, it came in right after I sent...I'm about to get 45 now

Here is what I was looking at when I made the south call:

Why does the NAM take so long? Is it running on a windows 95 computer?

Bigfoot does it.

I bet 30 to 40 miles south of ATL doesn't top a half inch of precip. Its what happens here the last 8mos.

Thermal changes level off at 42, but some good snows 12z

Dumps 3.2 inches out here from 36 to 39. We get hammered.

Yea I was watching that as well. But I don't see any other model being nearly as insane as HRRR. I tend to think it's an outlier. I would like to trust NAM a bit more in this set up.

Hey thanks for doing this! Well, the biggest thing is those H5 vorticity maps you guys always share when there's a storm, and what a phase looks like. I never quite know what I'm looking at as it looks like spaghetti sauce to me, lol

Nice that a good part of this event will be taking place during the day !

MU is in….

Correct.

Bunch of amateurs you are! I used to live in the North...Now that's constant back and forth and stress November through March. I don't miss it.