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Spring 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
Carvers Gap replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
My partly cloudy has turned into unexpected rainfall. Not a lot but will take it. @Met1985, definitely looks like another strong front. This will delay my garden by about a week. I sure didn't see that coming after weeks of temps in the low to upper 80s. What a flip!- 212 replies
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Spending a couple days in Savannah for my anniversary. Perfect weather yesterday and today! Beautiful!!!
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
April PDO -1.48 (actually lower than March's -1.43 PDO). This is a huge surprise, especially if we're heading towards a super el nino. 1972 (-1.70), 2009 (-2.23), and 2023 (-3.08) are the only strong/super el ninos that had a lower PDO in April. 1972 and 2023, of course, stayed negative, while 2009 went towards a neutral PDO. -
I’m gonna be super pissed if the weather gods pull this one away.
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
ChescoWx replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Many lower spots reached the 30's this morning with the Warwick DEOS the chilliest at 30.9 degrees. We warm up nicely today to near normal highs around 70 today. We warm to close to 80 degrees tomorrow before we start another cooling trend. Shower chances also look to increase Wednesday into Thursday before we clear up on Friday. Below normal temperatures look likely from Thursday through the weekend. -
E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2026 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Many lower spots reached the 30's this morning with the Warwick DEOS the chilliest at 30.9 degrees. We warm up nicely today to near normal highs around 70 today. We warm to close to 80 degrees tomorrow before we start another cooling trend. Shower chances also look to increase Wednesday into Thursday before we clear up on Friday. Below normal temperatures look likely from Thursday through the weekend. -
Beggers can't be choosers. The ground is so dry that even last weeks rainfall the ground just soaked up super quick but either way we need rain.
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The April and FMA relative and non-relative have just been released and they suggest the most recently calculated differential is ~0.6C: 1. FMA: ONI +0.11 RONI -0.48 0.59 diff vs 0.56 diff. JFM 2. April alone: ONI +0.36 RONI -0.24 0.60 diff. vs 0.55 in March -
And here we are ... 63+ already. Full sun. But of a breeze but we're probably making 74 for a high so that won't be much of a factor. Tomorrow's warmer yet... So it was 53 here yesterday. Dry though. Grading is subjective silliness but will play ball for min and say it was a C day. Today is an A.
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Looks to have gotten worse overnight
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Itstrainingtime replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Also, I need to remember that a lot of you live in areas that are notably cooler than here in Lanco. Your chilly 50 degree day might be a very pleasant 60 down here in the sun. 60 in early May feels a lot different than 60 in February. I can tell you that I was sweating profusely on Saturday. -
Go figure, we couldn't get snow in February and are now gonna get slammed in May.
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Records: Highs: EWR: 94 (2001) NYC: 92 (2001) LGA: 92 (2001) JFK: 88 (1965) Lows: EWR: 37 (1941) NYC: 38 (1917) LGA: 41 (1957) JFK: 42 (2005) Historical: 1774: TR. OF SNOW AT MT. VERNON- MOST GARDEN PLANTS FROZE ON 5TH Snow was reported in the Williamsburg Gazette to have fallen in Dumfries, Va. George Washington's at Mount Vernon, logged in his diary a cold day with spits of snow and a hard wind from the northwest. Thomas Jefferson near Charlottesville observed the Blue Ridge Mountains covered with snow. The late-season snow and frost killed most of the fruit crop in the northern part of the state. (Ref. Virginia Weather History) 1812 - A storm produced snow from Philadelphia to Maine. A foot of snow fell near Keene NH, and in Massachusetts, nine inches fell at Waltham, located near Boston. (David Ludlum) 1917 - A late season snowstorm in northwest Texas produced up to eight inches of snow in Potter County and Armstrong County. (David Ludlum) 1922 - Austin, TX, was hit twice by tornadoes which struck within thirty minutes of each other. Twelve persons were killed in the tornadoes. (The Weather Channel) 1952: Record heat occurred across parts of the upper Midwest as temperatures soared in the 80’s and 90’s. Daily record highs included: Sioux City, IA: 93°, Moline, IL: 93°, Chicago, IL: 92°, Rockford, IL: 92°, Kansas City, MO: 92°, St. Louis, MO: 92°, La Crosse, WI: 91°, Columbia, MO: 91°, Madison, WI: 90°, Springfield, IL: 90°, Milwaukee, WI: 89°, Green Bay, WI: 89° and Springfield, MO: 89°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1961: At least 10 tornadoes touched down in Oklahoma, including a large tornado near Cheyenne that was observed from many surrounding communities. One person was killed and more than 20 farmsteads were severely damaged or destroyed by a tornado that tracked from just west of Geary, to south of Kingfisher. One farmstead was struck by two tornadoes within 5 minutes. This tornado outbreak occurred exactly one year after an outbreak that produced a dozen tornadoes across Oklahoma on May 4th, 1960. A multiple vortex tornado struck Trombe d'Evereau, France killing one person and injuring 100 others along a five mile path. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1977 - A tornado 500 yards in width struck Pleasant Hill, MO, severely damaging the high school and grade school. Only minor injuries were reported among the more than 1000 teaches and students due to excellent warnings and prior tornado drills. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the southeastern U.S., with South Carolina hardest hit. Thunderstorm winds toppled trees seventy feet high in Spartanburg County SC, and knocked homes off their foundations near Bishopville SC. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced large hail in North Carolina, but brought welcome rains to much of the rest of the eastern U.S. Residents of New England finally saw sunshine after about a week of clouds and rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Southern Plains Region and the Lower Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms spawned fifteen tornadoes, and there were 340 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Hail three inches in diameter, and 9.39 inches of rain, resulted in more than 130 million dollars damage at Monroe LA. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 100 mph at Epps LA and Fort Worth TX. A thunderstorm north of Mineral Wells TX produced high winds which unroofed a nightclub, turning it into a "topless club." (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Lower Ohio Valley to Virginia and the Carolinas. A tornado at Augusta Springs VA killed two people and injured ten others, and another tornado caused 1.7 million dollars damage at Colonial Heights VA. Temp-eratures soared into the 90s in northern California. The high of 98 degrees in downtown Sacramento was their hottest reading of record for so early in the season. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1996: Partlow, Spotsylvania County, VA a man was injured when lightning struck a tree near the porch where he was standing. He went into shock but remained conscious. Another lightning strike started a fire in an abandoned trailer. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History) Golf ball size hail caused significant crop damage across northern Manatee and southern Hillsborough counties in Florida. 77% of the tomato crop and 90% to 100% of the cucumber, bell pepper, and green bean crop were severely damaged or destroyed. Losses were estimated at over $18 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2002: Road signs and four power poles were blown down when a tornado crossed Highway 350 in West Texas. The most intense activity was across the eastern basin where three supercell storms moved parallel to Interstate 20 producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Two tornadoes were observed in northern Mitchell County just before midnight along with hail to the size of baseballs. Damage was estimated at $100,000 dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Itstrainingtime replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I happened. I got frustrated because we just finished a top 10 warmest April ever but reading this thread you'd think it was the opposite. Saturday was 8-10 degrees below normal...fine, but there were quite a few days in April that were 20-25 degrees above normal. We've had both warm and cold but the warm has been WAY more dramatic, enough so that it resulted in a well AN month. Also, that is what defines this time of year. This is not abnormal weather. I'm sorry that I lost my wits. I apologize to all of you. -
64 / 38 in this 48 hour warmup reprieve 70s today / 80s tomorrow in the warmest spots. Clouds / showers - cooler Wed - Thu. With a possible nice weekend for mothers day coming up later this week, still would heed caution with trough into the east. Overall cooler than normal through the mid month ahead of a moderation towards a more persistent warmer one.
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
WmsptWx replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
What the hell is going on? -
May 4 1926: Morris goes from winter to summer temperatures in one day. The morning low was 32, followed by a high of 89. For Monday, May 4, 2026 1812 - A storm produced snow from Philadelphia to Maine. A foot of snow fell near Keene NH, and in Massachusetts, nine inches fell at Waltham, located near Boston. (David Ludlum) 1917 - A late season snowstorm in northwest Texas produced up to eight inches of snow in Potter County and Armstrong County. (David Ludlum) 1922 - Austin, TX, was hit twice by tornadoes which struck within thirty minutes of each other. Twelve persons were killed in the tornadoes. (The Weather Channel) 1977 - A tornado 500 yards in width struck Pleasant Hill, MO, severely damaging the high school and grade school. Only minor injuries were reported among the more than 1000 teachers and students due to excellent warnings and prior tornado drills. (The Weather Channel) NOTE: Thumbs up to that school district 1987 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the southeastern U.S., with South Carolina hardest hit. Thunderstorm winds toppled trees seventy feet high in Spartanburg County SC, and knocked homes off their foundations near Bishopville SC. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced large hail in North Carolina, but brought welcome rains to much of the rest of the eastern U.S. Residents of New England finally saw sunshine after about a week of clouds and rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Southern Plains Region and the Lower Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms spawned fifteen tornadoes, and there were 340 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Hail three inches in diameter, and 9.39 inches of rain, resulted in more than 130 million dollars damage at Monroe LA. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 100 mph at Epps LA and Fort Worth TX. A thunderstorm north of Mineral Wells TX produced high winds which unroofed a nightclub, turning it into a "topless club." (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Lower Ohio Valley to Virginia and the Carolinas. A tornado at Augusta Springs VA killed two people and injured ten others, and another tornado caused 1.7 million dollars damage at Colonial Heights VA. Temperatures soared into the 90s in northern California. The high of 98 degrees in downtown Sacramento was their hottest reading of record for so early in the season. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) NOTE: Having drills in school for different scenarios is a good thing.
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One of these days I'll get more than 0.5" from an event...
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You're gonna miss IWX.
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First 70 this year in town yesterday. Was nice to have the window open. Shwrs moved through early this morning. Gusty W winds on tap today with highs in the 50's.
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
so_whats_happening replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I would like to see how this actually translates to surface readout coming up. -
32.45 for the low. Hopefully that was the last one. Summah coming in a week or so.
