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Dr. No awaits

u gotta wake up early for the good posts™

Well this definitely came out of nowhere! And to think I was making peace with maybe seeing a few flurries early tomorrow morning!

Taking notes... GFS, ICON, and CMC all three trended closer to the coast for the Sunday system.

Best, and most educational part of the thread.

That's a Scooter Special on the GFS Probably will be gone in 6 hours

Thought this thread could be a good way to make our forum a bit of a nicer place! Basically the gist is to tell another poster (or the community in general) something that you appreciate about them/generally be nice to them. You can pick as many or as few people as you want. Additionally, if picked you don't need to feel pressured to respond or anything. I'll start off by recognizing @NorthArlington101 for being supportive of the newer posters on here as without him I might've quit this forum a while ago. Additionally, he is a chill guy who's helped me with UVA and stuff. Additionally, I'd like to @ @bncho for being a newer poster here who's already starting to add to our community as it's always nice to have more people interested in our hobby. Finally, I'd like to thank @Eskimo Joe for all of his analysis this year and general less pessimistic outlook than years past as his increased presence this year has been part of the reason that I feel our forecasting ability is higher than in years past. Of course, honorable mention to Terpest, Cape, Psu, MillivilleWx, WxUSAF, WxMeddler, and more for dealing with all of my (and others) questions about storm setups to help our whole subforum become more knowledgeable!

cmc also has something brewing for the 18th...

Just wait until the Euro takes a dump on our face at 12z and watch the vibe change quickly again.

The fact that this comes back onto modeling is not a big surprise as that happens a lot over the years. The fact that it’s the GFS that had it originally and then totally lost it and is now bringing it back as a blizzard, which says to me that there’s a more than 50% chance that this will be a storm of some significance. Definitely the biggest euro run of the last few days.

told you not to move west

I know, I know. Yall are dying out here starving for a decent snow. I'm rooting for yall.

The other interesting part of this is if we do get snow it doesn't warm up immediately after and may stay cold enough to keep it on the ground a little longer.

Other than mountain NW flow, I don’t believe anyone east of Asheville has seen a decent snow in five or six years .

CMC/Icon also ticked west for Sunday funday storm. Enough time/moves left for this to be next on watch list. Still a progressive trough, and not a longwave stable look, so it needs to dig and pop fast, as any delay in doing so would be headed for scooterville (SE Coast/fishy) kinda deal.

We'll see what ye olden Euro has to say. CMC did trend a bit west from 6z.

Amazing how quickly the vibes can change around here.

Give it a rest

That’s an understatement

The jump west from the 06z run was big. Don’t want too much of a jump this far out.

clown maps for GFS and CMC

At least we know there’s likely going to be a storm south and or east of us. That’s about all you can ask for in the middle of January and whatever happens, happens. .

Still a solid low end warning event on GGEM for eastern zones. Just not a ridiculous Blizzard.

Well the GFS illustrates pretty well what we need to see happen to get such a solution. Even the euro isn't too far off but it just goes to show how sensitive setups like this are.

Hopefully it doesn’t mean a low over 128