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Total here was 1.6", nice storm, BBasile got nailed pretty good. It was moving but kept reforming south and east of here, made it look almost stationary for a bit.

Always makes me sad this time of year. You look forward to this time of year so much come April and May and it just freaking flies by

Perfect weather day. 74/51F. Great vis. Drought situation. Assuming we don't get a shower tomorrow night the grand August total is 1.66". For July it was 1.64". Amazingly dry. Thankfully we did get .80" on August 23rd. In my general area I know Brian has been extremely dry too. He got a nice thunderstorm a little while back that I missed. Brian, what is your total for July and August?

Not saying cold and BN, but those summer temps and dews are losing persistence. Doesn’t mean we can’t torch for a day or two here and there. This week had a chance, but WF and ridge runners will ruin it. Labor Day weekend looks cool and then we are well into September.

I'm not sure how many people here have read Genesis from the bible, but there's actually some scripture about fall. Genesis 1:3 And the Lord said, let there be Fall ,and on the first day he realized that it really sucked.. So on the second day he said, let there be football, and the Lord saw that it was good. I hate fall with a passion. I consider it the season of death , depression, shortening days and nasty a** pumpkin flavored food and drinks. If it's not going be blistering hot with high humidity and afternoon thunderstorms, then it needs to be in the single digits with snow on the ground and the next storm already in focus.

Yeah we’re AN this August and yet the back was broken in July?

It never ends. 3 month arid pattern followed by a couple wet weeks that benefits some and fails the usual places, followed by another region-wide drought pattern. It's been going on for years.

I don’t see any chilly BN autumn pattern modeled. Pac typhoons moving west never translates cool in east.Looks normal at worst to slightly above. Nothing like last September

“Not happening but omg here it is”

But yeah after this week back broken. Then it’s 8 months of Autumn.

He’s the only person looking at the gfs. Haven’t looked at it in weeks.

August has had plenty of warmth and dews. No way.

Yeah most folks who look at models uninstalled soon after.

Where's the torch the two trolls were talking about? Best get here soon .

Wiz' is gonna have a thread some day that's titled "May 1st - October 2nd, convective episodes so plenty I'm totally bunning out"

On the bright side we might get some epic LES this winter if the lakes stay warm during cold snaps

Realistically, other than some elevated dews the back was broken towards the end of July.

Time 2 torch

Looking forward to a wetter Sept here in the N sub, Going through my modelling method, Early Sept looks to have a rather stubborn SE ridge with LP's moving across the N. A boundary may hang out across the S sub during this time. As we move into the 2nd week, I'm expecting that ridge to breakdown, and we should start to see much cooler wx start to arrive, especially by mid month. The 2nd half of the month looks like a rollercoaster in the jet. End of the month happened to catch my eye as a very significant storm may develop in the W sub. We'll see how this works out. Definitely need good rains up here, and I think Sept will deliver.

I’d usually decry a jinx thread for a threat this early until I remember my overall odds have been crummy all season anyway. So let’s do it! (CT/NY/PA/NJ) sigh….

Yikes, here we go again.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium range guidance consensus depicts a persistent ridge fortified across the central CONUS through the Days 4-8 (Tuesday-Saturday) period. Multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and smaller scale impulses will pivot around the broader upper ridge and traverse the Pacific Northwest to northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast through the week. The best chance for rounds of organized strong to severe thunderstorms will be with impulses overspreading a moist boundary layer from the Upper MS Valley to the southern New England/Mid-Atlantic regions. Details regarding the timing and placement of some of these impulses varies among medium-range guidance, rendering predictability too low for several potential severe scenarios. ...Days 4-7 (Tuesday-Friday) - Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... The Northeast to Mid-Atlantic will experience the east-northeast periphery of the aforementioned upper ridge, with multiple impulses expected to overspread the region through the middle of the week. At least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected each day Tuesday-Friday. At the moment, medium range guidance consensus shows the strongest signal in a mid-level impulse impinging on southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic on Day 5/Wednesday, where severe probabilities have been maintained. Guidance also depicts these same regions to have adequate vertical wind shear and instability Tuesday and Thursday, perhaps even extending into Day 7/Friday. Like Wednesday, several members of medium range ML/AI generated guidance also has severe probabilities over these regions Days 4-7. Unlike Wednesday though, deterministic medium range guidance varies in place and time of the more subtle impulses expected to support severe weather over the Northeast. It is acknowledged that severe probabilities will likely be needed in the future. However, probabilities have been withheld outside of Wednesday out of prudence given the degree of changes in forecast details expected in the coming days.