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Could this be designated PD-3 (or PD-III) if it proves to be a heavy snowstorm anywhere in the east coast region? Or would that happen after the fact only?

It's an outlier within that group, but it belongs in that group relative to the other 3, as it's much closer to the CMC/AIFS on track and having at least significant snowfall, especially at the coast.

The GFS op is definitely an outlier with the ridiculous amount of snow it’s showing in southern NJ, Delmarva, Maryland. No other model shows anything even remotely close

Model Mayhem continues. So, at 0Z, the Euro/UK/ICON all have the surface low move ENE from Cape Hatteras with very robust precip fields (with snow on the NW side of those fields) that are just too far SE to do much for people who live on land, while the GFS/CMC/AIFS/Weathernext2 have surface lows that move ENE from about Norfolk, 100+ miles N or Hatteras, with robust precip fields which are close enough to land to put down a lot of snow at the coast and lesser amounts as one goes inland. Which camp do I believe? No idea, but I will say that the fact that the 0Z Euro ensemble mean is well NW of the Op Euro tells me that the Op Euro has a decent chance of being a bit of a SE outlier and that it should move NW and show more snow. If that were the case, that would tip the balance towards a snowier solution, IMO, since right now, the two best models (Euro-AIFS and Euro-Op) are in different camps.

Oh yeah the mean went up on the EPS and AIEPS with several big hits in there about 8-10 on the EPS

This has actually been the most consistent part of forecasting this the last couple days, the inverted trough/NORLUN feature plus the general lighter snows having to do with the upper level feature dropping through. The last couple model runs have been fairly consistent across the board with delivering a light to moderate snowfall. The 0z suite is solid in C-PA, Euro included, with ensemble support for such things. What is still wildly different is the evolution of the coastal itself. 0z GFS threw down like 30” on a big part of the Delmarva, while the 0z Euro has 1-2” at best there and way offshore with the developing coastal.

you have some weenievista maps, wxbell isn't out yet

Eps is also improved. Nice trends.

@psuhoffman the Ai ensembles have snow by tomorrow night lol

Euros been out for a while, its worse than 18Z but better than 12Z. still off shore

We’re not at Mid range. Storm basically starts day after tomorrow

So Ukmet, Icon and Euro dont have much of anything. Gfs, Cmc and the AI models at least give us a moderate event.

…AI euro MUCH improved‼️‼️

Forgive me, but...why do you always sound surprised everytine there's model discrepancy in the mid-range? The models are not so good that chaos at this range is some kind of unthinkable thing, lol

Yep, on its own for now

Euro is bleh. Better than 12z but significantly worse than 18z.

Euro still gives us a few inches even with the low way overshore.

Snowing for 18hrs at 32 or below into the night. Think it would do just fine. But also so I believe any these models are right? No

Because it’s so weak. Snow tv

And for you. Good luck getting 5 inches with no rates

Its even worse than 18z after some positives earlier in the run. It might be struggling.

At 84 it throws a mixed bag into region

The GFS shows 2 feet in Sailsbury, what could go wrong?

NE MD likes this run. But everyone else doesn’t. Wild how different the solutions are on every model now even inside 96hrs.

Overall the EC is worse than 18Z but better than 12Z The CMC para is a tick SE of the OP, but improved a lot from its 12Z run.