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August SOI is traditionally a much stronger signal for a warm Northern US December than Nino 3/3.4/4. Month looks like it will finish among the lowest ever SOI readings for August. Vast area of Southern Canada/Northern US favored warm at a strong correlation already. For whatever reason, the August SOI is more predictive for Dec temps than the Sept SOI as well.

Today's Highs: PHL: 87 BLM: 85 ACY: 84 TTN: 84 New Brnswck: 82 TEB: 82 LGA: 82 EWR: 1 NYC: 79 ISP: 79 JFK: 78

About to get something from this hoco cell that popped up

Outlook does imply they may bypass a PTC and go straight to a TS watch/warning at 10 or 5. Makes sense with the blowup this evening and better model support. Looks to be on track between High Island and Cameron for the watch/warning. Might extend down to Galveston.

They don't fly far but they can jump fast if you try to stomp them.

Southern South America has been seeing a cold winter (their winter is our Summer). That's fairly normal for an El Nino "expected effect". The Southern Hemisphere +PDO is sort of there, warm ring around a cold tongue. Areas expected to be warm in El Nino have been running +10F or more in winter - good preview for our winter in the northern US I'd expect.

Nice call on the cherry, 70% on the 7pm CDT outlook. .

The top 3 in the coldest lows range are all close to me and 1986 is the year our family purchased this property and the year this house was built but back then we only spent the summers here. From Tony's chronology I can see that 1982 also had a cold outbreak around this time. Both strong el ninos. Meanwhile that super heatwave in 1953 was fully underway by now. It seems like back in the 80s it was both hotter and drier and colder and drier. Back then we could get desert dry air from the southwest or polar dry air from the north which is why we got those early fall like airmasses in August 1982 and 1986. Now you need rain and a muggy onshore to get cool air. With poor sky conditions too. Chris is Lake Harmony the only coop that reports snowfall around here? I've been trying to find snowfall averages around this area. Can you locate other snowfall reporting sites around here within a 10 mile radius at or above 1500 feet? Thanks!

This close to land and landfall? Pretty high. Just need a few reliable obs. Does appear there is a good circulation but most of the day it had no real convective activity around it. I'd still guess without recon in there they will go PTC first and full upgrade in the morning unless it goes bonkers tonight.

Please do!

First year I’ve seen them. Only at work (they’re everywhere), but haven’t seen any here at home. Odd.

Early afternoon in Vail I saw the strongest thunderstorm of my CO trip. It got so dark just before the start! I considered it to be severe with very strong winds at the start bringing down cold air into the 50s. The winds must have been 50++, which the aspens handled well. Soon after good drought helping heavy rain fell followed by lots of pea sized hail that lasted ~5 minutes.

That makes sense, what are the possibilities of going straight to TD at some point.

I saw my first one in southborough today. They're quicker than I thought.

Doubt they would do a special for a PTC. Could get a hint that one is coming with the update at 7 and going red.

Nice storm in Lanco. .

Pretty impressive lightning show and storm. Rain still coming down, but at .87 now, temp down to 72.

Few sprinkles between 5 and 6 pm here, Clifton Forge just 4 miles to my east got a decent amount.

I’ve learned to trust the crew at the NHC about jumping the gun. That said I’m not calling for it, but all the visuals & ascat passes say that they could issue a special for PTC. Nice diurnal blow up starting now. .

Do you guys see a lot of the maple trees with black or brown spots on the leaves? For my area, the last 2-3 years, there have been a lot of the black spots on silver maple and Norway maple leaves towards the end of the year. I think it's mold. I don't know how widespread it is. Some maples are losing leaves now, but, of course, not with color.

Os got the sweep. Gunnar back to being Gunnar? See what it gives.