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  2. This is a better depiction of the lake level without previous years shown. It is on the way to the lows we saw over the summer once again and this week at least looks completely dry.
  3. Low of 28F, as we speak, at 300 feet ASL, Connecticut River Valley.
  4. My expectations are low, but not that low..I'll take the over on both of those seasons for snowfall at my locale..especially 2023...1997 will be close. There are pretty clear differences that have been discussed which should cause this season to behave differently than those ones later in the season. That said, early season will probably be worse. I expect a quick recovery after that block...
  5. Yup, this is the point, and of course there is variability depending on what trees there are, or that one has in their area. If you have alot of, or predominantly oaks where you live, it’s gonna be dull for the most part. If you have more maples and birches…then it will be so much more colorful. It doesn’t mean the foliage is a dull year(of course it can be some years), just means you don’t have the colorful trees in that area.
  6. Today we should see highs from mid 60's in ridge locations to the low 70's in valley spots with lows tonight in the upper 30's to low 40's. It should be one of the better weather weeks of the year with almost no chance of rain. By Saturday morning we should see lows in the low to mid 30's with a freeze possible in the colder valleys! Temperatures will be near normal through Thursday but by Friday we drop to about 5 degrees below normal, before we return to near normal by Sunday. Of note 7 years ago today back in 2019 Chester County was at the start of a 3 day storm that left as much as 1.56" of rain at Coatesville 1E. This was the remnants of Tropical Storm Nestor which tracked within about 190 miles of the county.
  7. We are just going to have to wait until we get through December and January to see what happens in February. The issue with the seasonal models is that they default to an El Niño climatology package in February which incudes many weaker events. 2023-2024 and 1997-1998 didn’t necessarily follow the typical February climatology. This event is much stronger than both of those so we should probably keep expectations low and if we do better than those two years in February it’s a nice surprise.
  8. Today we should see highs from mid 60's in ridge locations to the low 70's in valley spots with lows tonight in the upper 30's to low 40's. It should be one of the better weather weeks of the year with almost no chance of rain. By Saturday morning we should see lows in the low to mid 30's with a freeze possible in the colder valleys! Temperatures will be near normal through Thursday but by Friday we drop to about 5 degrees below normal, before we return to near normal by Sunday. Of note 7 years ago today back in 2019 Chester County was at the start of a 3 day storm that left as much as 1.56" of rain at Coatesville 1E. This was the remnants of Tropical Storm Nestor which tracked within about 190 miles of the county.
  9. Interesting they blew before this week. It's not super warm up high on North Ridge but it's probably still in the low 50s with full sun. Later this week some cloud cover works it's way in overnight and might not get the wetblub they need to blow more. I got a ticket for 11/15 as I'll be up there with some friends for the weekend. Would be my earliest lift serve day in several seasons.
  10. Incredible temperature variance due to cold drainage this particular morning... Cold drain and uneven distribution by dawn isn't in and of itself very unusual, but varying 20 F over short distances, is. It is occurring among a lot of the non-standard NWS sites in the interior. ORH was 43 for a low, now 52... Same in Sterling and N. FIT ... yet, it's 31F at the Oxbow site along Rt 2... Interesting Some of these chillier sites are likely to see a 20 to 25 F bounce this morning.
  11. Not going to lie, it’s frustrating to not see the pattern materialize as I think it’s causing false hope that will ultimately get crushed and creating opportunities for grifting
  12. A lot of us have been in the main ENSO thread.
  13. Two mornings in a row of 39 degrees. Got to 39.9* at 739am today. I am def liking this wx over last weeks.
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  16. Not excited about 38 degree rain storms? lol
  17. Clots are no joke man. I was diagnosed three years ago with a DVT in my calf, and a PE as I had multiple clots in my lungs. Spent three days in the hospital and wondered what if I never made it there? Scary situation. I will be on thinners for the rest of my life and even though I have full movement, my leg still has swelling. Hopefully Hurts can get off thinners and resume his football career, but it might be the end of it in Philly. Went to the Flyers game last night. They looked like they had a little more giddy up on the ice than the first 6 games.
  18. Living in an Oak forest and folks can understand why I want a full blowdown here. Take them all. Last year had zero acorns. This year the small acorn trees masted but all the acorns came down in the Nor’easter. None since thankfully
  19. Last November told the story of the coming winter. We'll see if this year November does the same.
  20. Right, I'm not saying it's the "golden ticket" for winter, but it certainly doesn't hurt...this also ties into what I am talking about in the northern Pacific later in the season. Not to mention that this particular block in unprecedentedly strong as modeled.
  21. These October Ural to Scandinavian blocks have become the new normal especially in October in the low Arctic sea ice era since 2007.
  22. Yep we have to see if it continues to dip during the season. Thats what altered alot of forecasts last winter. The long range 0z Euro AI eps also shows the PV taking a big hit.
  23. JB is resorting to AI now to try and explain atmospheric physics?
  24. Another heavy frost. Min 31.8° So much for upper 30s.
  25. These strong Scandinavian-Ural blocks have become fairly common post 2007 with the record low Arctic sea ice state. We also saw this late October into early November SPV weakening and bounce back pattern in 2021 and 2022. But as always it’s the Pacific which has the final say.
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