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Only one thing to do: fire Elias and clean out the FO. But I'm not sure we need a full rebuild, or that all our young players are simply busts. Not buying that part...I think it's Elias & Sig's system that has been choking the core. Key example? Look how well Adley is doing this year. What did he say? "Simple thoughts at the plate". Which makes ya wonder...where did the complications come from? We were all ready to call him a bust! But his bat is all the way back, and now he can throw people out thanks to a change in coaching! If that kind of change can happen with him...who knows?

Not a drop today at home. Gorgeous mid 60s day here in Montana though

I'll bet the under on that. Alonso is not gonna wanna just up and switch when he just got here just because things are rough this first year. Players do not always think the way fans do. (Why you are so hung up on this idea of him in particular I have no clue--it is incredibly rare for that kind of deal to be given up on by player or team in just half a season...c'mon you ever heard of that? Lol It would have to be an unusual, toxic situation for that to happen that fast) And besides, Alonso seems like the type to go all in when he commits to a team and a city. He is not going anywhere dude, lol And I think the assumption everything will be torn down under a new GM is premature. There is more to work with here than some think. And what if...it's the system of over emphasis and micromanaging of analytics (and culture of the FO) is the culprit, and not the talent? You change that and this can turn around in a year, imo

I like the deck chair that slides back and forth like something out of Poltergeist.

Sounds like damage control in link title --"not nearly the rainfall we need." Ok, who ever said it would be enough? The point is we got a solid widespread rain event. You have to start somewhere to come out of drought conditions. Geez, wx does not work in nice, neat, even increments and balances out 1-1 when talking short periods of time. A case of you can look at the glass half-full or empty (yes, the pun is there but not intentional!).

Sorry, I couldn't resist!

What happened to your warm front *absolutely* needed for the big R+ in a summer month? Nor'easter is still a nor'easter in July. Only difference is that they are weaker and smaller, but much higher PWATs tend to compensate to give solid QPF. The OER was neat to see today streaming in from the due E!

A question I’ve wondered about for a while is if our area always benefits from emls. The tor threat way back in March had a weak one and it kneecapped our cape. It seems that sometimes that temperature increase (or slower rate of decrease) does more harm than it helps.

The AMOC stuff is interesting to me. I've seen some theories regarding the cold blob possibly causing persistent troughs over that area Tip's reference to our corner of the planet being cooler relative to other regions?

Even if it was 4-8" widespread, it still would not have been that bad overall b/c it was going to be spread out and most importantly, very dry antecedent conditions overall across SNE! So much of the MSM and hype masters have no clue, or do know, but ignore b/c deflates hype. They think "one-size-fits-all" and the one size is always means the worst. That's now how the wx works and we can do much better now due to improved modeling and understanding of the wx. There is no effort to quantify or scale wx events anyone -- again, it always "the worst." So you see my overall critical position on how wx is treated in general is not w/o merit. This rain was very beneficial and we needed it, but that is good news and doesn't sell.

Yes, you could clearly see two level of pcpn on radar, low and high, moving in different directions and overlapping, which likely lead to the dense small drops (super "sheet" drizzle?). Almost like warm process rain but w/ more baroclinicity.

Nice li'l tight/coherent wrap up. Models showed this well. Don't always need a deep sfc coastal low for "fun 'n games!"

Couple days of shrinkage then back to our usual low hanging family jewels. We shall overcome these trying times.

Can you imagine the consternation alone if this was a fcst snowstorm? 24 hr ago, DXR would have had 2 ft and PVD a foot, and a dusting at BOS. CoastalWx would be like, "HOW CAN THIS BE????!!!!" and basically ready to call it quits, and then the big backlash comes in and saves the day! Reminds a bit of the Bliz of 96 in ern MA. Got about 5" in Woburn w/ an initial burst in the evening, then MEH for the next 8 hr (2SM -SN and I got about 2"). Then the "backlash" came in and I got another 8". So a great storm total (for 1996), but it was piecemeal. Not a smooth event! Also, one of the storms in the Jan-Feb 2015 blitz. SNE got a burst of S+ in the evening, and then it completely stopped, and BKN conditions w/ stars visible along the S Coast. This mesoscale thing w/ a arc of snow moved into srn NH, then drifted back S after midnight, and then incredible development w/ super TS++ predawn into later that morning. Rumor has it CoastalWx passed out a few times due to his ecstasy! Again, not a smooth event, but it all worked out in the end!

Nice soaker. We had a good deluge for 6 hours embedded in the lighter rain. Ok I’m ready to go back to summer.

First warm blob, now cold blob, next it will be NEUTRAL blob, and they will find an issue/problem w/ it!

A two-day total of 2.06 inches. Getting that much rain without a tropical system is always welcome. Lots of CTG lightning and loud Thunder too. Lasted longer last night though. Im glad to have gotten this which the grass and trees, plants were thrilled. This was a shot from the employee lot at work as the storms were moving into Eastern Durham/Western Wake Counties

Let there be light!!!!!! I set my ac to 63, took a long shower and now I'm attempting to get hyperthermia Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Dvorak CI is back up to 7.0 which is 140 kt, after being down 5.5 last night. 7.0 would normally assign 140 kt, but since the eye is so large and a bit ragged, JTWC went w/ 130 kt, which is reasonable. The eye pressure may be as low now as it was when Bavi peaked at 155 kt, however, tightness of the inner core and eye size are paramount. After a couple of ERCs, the overall size of the storm expands and inner core tightness is less (overall power of the storm is basically the same, just spread out more). Also, a slow gain in latitude is increasing Coriolis, and this results in a gradual decrease in tangential winds speeds over time. It's one reason why you rarely see pinhole eyes N of 30N. Eye size is challenge, It depends on if you use IR or VIS, and within IR, what color table you use! Attached is Bavi's eye currently using EIR, BDIR (Dvorak), and VIS. I get 55 nm, 40 nm, and 30 nm for a diameter, respectively! Notice the difference between EIR and BDIR, The BDIR shows the stadium bowl eye structure better than the EIR.

Like the prerequisite 70F on Grinchmas eve

Feels like its been a hot minute since we have had a stormy summer. Really digging this season so far.

2.60” event total

High of 95. Picked up only .03". Looks like a very good chance of storms tomorrow.

If my weather station is correct, we had over 5” here on the Worcester/Auburn line. Amazing how much the ground has just soaked all of that up. .

Was refreshing down at the water. My powerboat died so I’m probably getting a sailboat this week. Looking forward to getting back out there in the elements