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MJO Phases 7 & 8 & both really good as you move into DEC. Phase 6 is good in DEC until 2nd half of DEC. Phase 7 & 8 gets better each week as you progress into DEC. Phase 7 starts getting worse as you get into JAN. https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html

I hate to be that guy, but when is this wave onshore for better sampling, tomorrow afternoon?

18z euro is south. Gotta get that post in.

Just as long as we can keep the cold, it looks promising. 45 mph gusts today…definitely not normal wind.

18z Euro went weak pos, but further south a touch.

Yeah well that's what I said lol, and specifically that this time of year that setup is going to be rain for the coastal plain probably every time. Inland where you are, different story. I would expect precip to at least start as snow out there unless HH GFS scenario verifies. Probably snow/mix quickly to rain in your yard in that case.

Thought the same thing! And the graphic shows 6-9” in my county! .

Possibly mentally for some. Lots to work out still

Agreed. Even 2-3 weeks later, a carbon copy of this system will give most of us some snow down to the bay.

I saw it, Thats why i had the comment.

Euro and Euro AI are slightly south and east. Gfs is alone.

Gfs is alone Euro is also now slightly south and east

We always here in Middle Tn get hosed by inverted troughs,still remember when we had a Winter Storm Warning that was right before the snow dome talk came in,was suppose to get 3-5" and the models missed the inverted trough and we just got rain instead,because it missed the warm nose

GFS and Euro at polar opposites.

Now it is. Wont be in 6 weeks. I dont hate a HP off of the NE when the ocean is 38 degrees. Out here at least.

Not sure because his response was to the 18z icon which doesn't show that at all. Now the gfs is another story

Euro was pretty bad last year if we are being honest. This will be the first time this season we get to do some model comparisons. My WAG is we get a small thump to slop. More North and west obviously. When all else fails just go with climo.

Euro AI is even flatter

A fundamental problem that has been pretty persistent on all model simulations is HP to the north exiting stage right as the storm approaches. That's complete death for snow chances for lower elevations/coastal plain at our latitude esp in early Dec. Places well inland and further north should see some frozen initially depending on the amplitude of the shortwave trough and exact track of the surface low.

By "Old School" do you mean 8 months ago?

Yes, even a half inch should accomplish that.

It’ll likely pass thru 2 or 3 cycles selling a NW bias between 24 and 60 hours

Close to a inch when I left.. in Rindge now to meet a couple other people for our show we're going to tonight and just a dusting here.. I think we got that thin band perfect

Lmao. So Detroit has an advisory for 5-7", Ann Arbor has a warning for 5-8", and Toledo has a warning for up to 6". Im sure the general public knows the difference

Yeah, I'd hold off on using it for at least another couple days if at all, I'm sure its going to get quite entertaining going forward.