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Given the 18z euro ropes us in often, I expect today to be a good happy hour run. 12z and it’s ensembles and AI were good improvements.

You've out-Neiled him!

Could be a top 5er on the Cape when you include the wind potential too. If they get 18”+ with hurricane force wind gusts…not too many can match that. Jan ‘05 of course…Feb 1952…Jan 2015…then maybe Feb ‘87.

I know this is a miss or 1-3 inch max for up here, but just hoping the GFS is more right about later next week and not that ugly Euro I saw. School vacation week has literally wore the snow off the trails, we need 6 inches bad, but probably realistically a foot to start battling the March sun

2/20 18z GEFS 24H Mean Total QPF

Problem is where I am in the valley I am either too far north, too far south, or (in the last few cases) get skunked by virga and dry air and lose moisture to moisten the column Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Having a 3 day ensemble mean have a 976 low is crazy.

Whatever the real amounts will be...this is why we here in Baltimore sweat more than most. Always right on the edge--have no clue where I fall with this one. In the past my yard has occasionally been just close enough to get some love when the upper eastern shore gets slammed. But other times not so much, lol

Indeed. Which is why in my hot UHI backyard im gonna be sweating thermals. Maybe the mesos will show better temps and I can stop worrying

Too bad it won't all melt before his return, so he never sees it.

UKMET to 66 looked similar to 12z

And that should help pull down cold air and cool the column with heavier rates

Hoping for a huge event, but my expectations are very low. 6-8" would be my O/U locally, anything over that is a win and below that is an L

Sarcasm. It can only go downhill henceforth, forthwith, from here on out. IT GON SNOW!!!

2-3 Feet might push this winter up from an F to a D

in case the classic rhyme is a jinx, I'll just say the trend is our amigo

For who Albany

Depends on rates

Easy now...

Every run is deeper and closer to the coast.

Deepest and furthest west mean yet…

I'm on that 33 lol. And that's 21z. Worse earlier in day

I have been surprised at how much BOX has been pooh-poohing this, and a lot of other media, too. Rather than communicating uncertainty, they're doing the "no big impact but it could come north maybe." Even at their 1834Z AFD was "it's just going to hit the Cape and South Coast nbd." They must be furiously typing out the next AFD now, I hope?

Forecast above, reality below.