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I think when folks see totals in the 60s while BOS is 110 they feel cheated.

All models are now pretty much in agreement for a 2-4" event for the metro area Thursday afternoon and night. With higher amounts possible further south.

The last thing I want to think about when we aren't even to mid winter is a strong nino next winter.

They use a process known as 'reanalysis' - basically, taking what is physically known about the system, and then putting data that was empirical ( or very closely estimated to be consistent witth - ) and feeding that data to the mathematics. The results pain a likeness that is 82 ... 91 ...99%tile of what was natural. So, reanalysis is not always perfect, but if we are over even 60% in confidence/reconstruction, that is significant - and significance can the be tested against other data sets that are also related. If two sources come back with similar results, that improves the confidence. They're indicating at the bottom of that article, "These findings are the result of a statistical analysis of the 250mb jet stream using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis dataset." In order to get more discrete than that would have to go to the source/server they are referencing, and delve into the papers "methodology" section

I've never followed their long-term forecasting. I do watch them for their severe weather stuff.

Whiners in CT about 2015? 106 inches who is whining? Look at those max depths state wide. Only whiners are those who constantly think they should JP in areas that rarely Jackpot

I'm not even all that upset about this weekends cutter, that system is going to be a big player and setting up the pattern behind it for mid and late January. I want to see things hold through the remainder of the week and on weekend guidance before truly becoming excited but it's great to finally see a look which is more conducive for amplifying northern streams with some southern stream involvement. That 13th-15th period and 17th-19th period is very close to producing something

Agreed... snooze fest for a while...

I've been sitting at 45 for several hours. It feels like 70 and muggy after being up on the cold Tug Hill lol

A timeless question. Both can be annoying (and I have done both) but are fine, and normal weenie fare, in smaller doses. But. Factoring in post volume? imo the first is worse.

I'm at 59.

The 12z GEM has a storm along the coast during the 14-15th and a northern vortex crashing in. Close miss but still some snow. Good overall pattern though. As for Bam, I generally have steered clear of that site most winters....flip-flop city but some really good content at times. Right now, the MJO seems decoupled from the NA weather pattern to some extent (certainly some influence). I think the window from the 11th-21st(maybe a little longer) is a good window. Then, it looks like another ridge will retrograde through the East. The positive from the GFS is that it RAPIDLY moves the Alaskan ridge through the Aleutians into Asia. The faster that goes, the faster that we see the ridge develop in the West again. February looks like it will have another deep trough develop between Feb1-10. Remember, I am big on finding windows for winter precip, and then watching details as that window draws closer. I do think there is a chance the ridge locks out West, but maybe a 40% chance on that.

12z Euro pounds us with 2-4 inches on Saturday

My total in Clifton was 37.75" which was the driest on my record of 52 years. Previous driest. was 38.84" in 1976, 39.00" in 1985 and 39.45" in 2012

The irony is we trended much cooler in our little corner of the country in New England due to the CAD that’s dominating much of this week and during the weekend cutter. But it’s all mostly irrelevant anyway in terms of snowfall. We’re not expecting much in SNE between now and 1/15 anyway.

I have never been impressed by the BAM weather crew. Lot's of bold talk about how it's "meteorology not modelology" then they flop around like a freshly caught mackerel with each new run.

CMC's buckin for the 15th.... either way, that's a pig +PNA amplitude. I'd be almost - if it were not for the last 10 years of oddities ruling the outcomes - be surprised if something didn't manifest during that period, because regardless of this Canadian run ( which is easy to do HAHA), that signal is very much still active in the index modalities

12z model cinema is pretty meh

That weekend system has trended so cold that much of NNE away from coasts ends up with net gain and ice while SNE relishes in cold rain

Also those anomalies are probably heavily skewed from the few systems bringing brief anomalously warm temperatures through the midwestern states and even here potentially this weekend if that system does indeed cut like that

Mistake 1: moving back here Mistake 2: NY entered into a Clean Energy agenda and put huge mandates on utility companies to move off gas powered electricity which costs billions and that is being passed on to you thru huge hikes. Mistake 3: simultaneous with mistake 2, the former governor forced them to close Indian point. This clean energy source provided 25% of New York’s electricity. Long story short, enjoy your bill. It’s gonna be higher next year.

Not sure I agree with that post. If anything, much of those anomalies, particularly central states are probably driven moreso by overnight temperatures. But the pattern moving towards the 2nd and 3rd week of January is looking conducive for some coastal storm potential. I don't think that look has changed all that much over the past several days.

Still only 39 today was supposed to hit 50

I am curious (not doubting the validity of the findings), but how did they determine the jet stream speeds from 100 years ago?

I'm from St. Louis.............. I want to measure it in my gauge. A "soaker" must be more than an inch. A quarter inch only lays the dust for about 36 hrs..