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Long range HRRR has a crusher on the 12z run

Sooooo for ASH area cement type with little wind ?(up coming event)?

Looks nothing like it

It’s pretty much stacked early on….those “blizzard loops” happen in maturing storms when the sfc low starts getting “pulled” in by the upper low.

He was done with this though after the overnight euro shat the bed.

You put it better than I could. Thanks.

I'm going to try and get into IBSP Monday (research purposes). I feel somewhere between there and Squan will be the bullseye. Matter of finding somewhere that doesn't have massive drifts

Yes plus temps a little above freezing means probably white rain in NYC until early-mid afternoon. I was surprised rhe blizzard warning starts 6 am but u guess that's as a precaution.

Not right along the coast in Monmouth or Ocean - I bet there is a mixing or change over at some point for at least a while

Nothing posted as of yet

Aside from that initial tuck east of Jersey, we don't get much of a stall/loop like some of this past biggies. Probably the only thing holding back the widespread 2-3ft totals..

Possibly more if the Nam is to be believed

It’s wrong biased

That would probably slide NE but yeah…the dry conveyor will start getting wrapped around the low.

Is hrrr warm biased this far out?

Don’t ya think?

I don't think we're done after this. I saw 10-20" but I try not to pay attention to other maps to avoid tainting my forecast. We should be fine. I'm not seeing any big dry slotting issues.

Absolutely, that’s why I highlighted the 18hr look because past that’s truly beyond the pale for the HRRR lol, and is already shaky. I will take the better result but yeah doesn’t really move things

will be interesting to see how the barrier islands in Ocean County do with this storm - I remember traveling west from Silverton which had 1 inch to Southern Lakewood - 7 miles away which had 7 inches from a storm

Someone on the coast is going to get pummeled with 30”

See, you understand! Haven't had a 10+ snow since 2018 (I wasn't here for Jan 2022)

Shitty job and I bet your dog(s) laugh when they see you do it

That track and intensity verbatim would be 2-3 ft area wide. Incredible.

I’d take even the Nam or 3k showing it vs relying on the LR HRRR