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it's ours

I am surprised that it being 24 hours out that MRX has not updated surrounding areas to a WWA and for that matter included a few counties around the present WSW with advisories. I guess however, knowing how conservative they are it reflects their normal movements.

We are 36-48 hours from the start and the UKMet has half an inch for Raleigh and the GEFS has double digit snowfall. Go figure

I love the "It's not going to snow, but I was still fascinated by all of the moving ennui particles on modeling...still interested in seeing just how it ultimately doesn't snow" I couldn't give two shits once I know it won't snow.

That and the BN after, keeping a nice, white, useful snowpack in place. Oftentimes we get 2' of snow and it's 45 the next week and gone into slush and puddles. The globals haven't shown a high much above freezing in SNE before Valentine's Day.

the old McDowell county special

This is a Miller "who?" because no one knows anything

We're still in a good spot for at least a 2-4 event and likely 3-6.

Anyway, looks like a threat of a few inches next Wednesday.

I miss the 2009 and 2018 storms where nothing ever wavered but an inch or two haha. We can’t latch onto a storm 2 days out much less a week anymore

The SLP that’s near the NC coast actually gets absorbed by the one further offshore on the GFS.

Never get the hype with overrunning events. In theory, seems great but it almost always comes down to us somehow trying to thread this impossible needle between an amped up system that bring temp issues and a colder storm that has no juice.

Hard to tell at this point what are trends and what are just windshield wiper wobbles. GFS jumped back up but we lost the Candian/RGEM. Gonna be an interesting 24-48 hours.

Well let's get some clippers to give us several options of a few inches out of time, and maybe one of them can blow up into a major storm

Gfs is clipper city

ACK grazer

That works...

How far east is this puppy trending? It looks like RI is just on the edge of things.

Noticed some models want to keep it snowing longer as well.

Gfs is clipper city

Yup, same. 0 at my house, but got to the little hollow at the end of my road and it was -4. Passed through Leominster and it was 5. Fake cold can be extreme.

So... Maybe?

Whatever we get, yes, will be snow on snow, no waiting for most roads or lawns to cave. You won't have the inevitable watch the mulch go white, okay, now the grass, then driveway and roads. This stuff will stick, so, hopefully, will pile up quick.

Are we sure the ensembles aren't just smoothing things out? As we get closer to the event they become less relevant I would think.

i know you are only being half serious, but i'd be leary of assuming the trends that "always" happen will happen again. last year i was pretty pumped to see the 10"+ totals models were spitting out in new orleans, mobile, the florida panhandle and south georgia. i "knew" that the models would trend north and might get me close to the bullseye. i wound up with zero snow while the gulf coast got dumped on as the models called for many days.