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GFS 6" - 10" for all in subforum, steady as she goes....Merry Christmas!

You have been beating this drum for days. It’s getting old and you are becoming just as bad as some others. give it a rest.

You know what's going through the mind right now...what if the banding actually occurs even farther north then what guidance has (which we know is something that is rather common)...that could essentially put like along or south of the MA Pike through BDL and kevin into the jackpot zone lol

Tick tick tick…more at 12z Merry Christmas

Merry Christmas gang!

This is like a carbon copy of you disregarding BL temps in the last storm (though I personally didn't have that issue - many, yourself included, did). Trends are bad for us, mixing is pretty much guaranteed now. I don't control the weather, just saying what models and trends are indicating. Merry Christmas!

The whole system seems a bit over-wrought. Wouldn't be the first time the guidance proved too amped ... Then in now-cast the lower edge of verification start materializing ... Thing is, source-origin and climo. It's not favoring upper ranged numbers. This event is born of a dry sourced polar wave (clipper-esque), and isn't joining or phasing with a deeper moisture source - only the Lakes upstream as a moisture inject ... and it's not physically very clear that's actually being sourced, either. Additionally, it is moving fast. It smacks a little like over-cooked QPF moving above climatology velocities through the area. Could snow hard but too briefly. Will go ahead with the consensus but ... I won't personally be surprised if this under performs by some.

12Z GFS slightly colder outcome for everyone and a little more precip for the southern crew.

GFS looks very euro like and reasonable

Merry Christmas yall. Enjoy the time spent with friends and family. Cherish the memories

Tic toc

As for Mammoth...their webcams are awesome. I dropped a link for their cams on the mountain. They range from 8000' to 11000'. We stayed at 9000' this past summer when we were out there. It is crazy to see everything buried now. The ground was bare two days ago - they had almost no snow below 9500'. Very late season for them. Colorado restorts have bare ground. But...it is easy to see how the Donner party got caught. People were hiking up until two days ago in the 10,000' range...today, you would be stuck. The 6z AIGEFS lent a bit of support to the 0z GEM - it doubled its colder members since 0z. We probably are going to have to look at ensemble members in order to sort the cold fronts out for early January. The mean will continue to be skewed until the last minute I think. https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

yup...damn trees and hills and valleys wrecking havoc on the radar beams. If I ever won a billion dollar powerball (well I would have to play the lotto first) I would pay to have a radar installed at BDL

We get hit hard on gfs. Why are you complaining?

yeah I would think watches for at least wor counties, CT is such a weird state with 3 offices covering such a small area.

EPS/GEPS at 00Z long range were close, GEFS not much but at 06Z GEFS was closer to those 2. Seems main difference is GEFS though stronger on the negative side on the AO/NAO is more + on the EPO and - on the PNA than the EPS/GEPS. But if we go with history as GA has posted a few times, odds favor the +PNA in January in these similar winters.

Cloudy 36f dew point 25f going up to 50 under sunny skies forecast I saw this morning. Ummm I don’t think so looks like warmth is being shooed away.

I would have to think we see winter storm watches expanded through much of CT...maybe the trigger is pulled for a warning in Fairfield?

I’ve give up on snow for a few months if I could get that set up! .

Merry Christmas n a Happy Holiday to all. Light frz rn mixed with some snow forecast for later today with some snow along the border. Untreated surfaces will be slick.

That's great to know!! Thank you for that insight. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

It's fairly unstable too into the DGZ. That could certainly argue for some rates locally approaching 3"/hr but I don't think those rates would be sustained for a full hour or multiple hours. Such a tough forecast...you almost have to have a large swath of something like 5-8" or 6-9" and then just use text to emphasize that swath ma be a bit more narrow as those totals are highly dependent on where the banding occurs and how wide the banding is.

I think the last time Orange County had widespread 20”+ was back in December 2002. Monthly Data for December 2002 for Orange County, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. GARDNERVILLE COOP 20.1 PORT JERVIS COOP 34.0 WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 22.5 WEST POINT COOP 30.5