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Im not surprised at all with the volatility from basically all the models. We had an SSW or at least a significant weakening of the PV. We also have the MJO doing its thing and it's a good thing at that. The models have had a really tough time in the mid-range this season. A lot going on in the atmospheric river.

Those moths are great in spring into early summer for eating Oaks. Those are the winter moths or Silkworms , Cankerworms .and Leafrollers . There’s a few different species.. We had a huge crop the last 2-3 years here.. each one heavier than the last . Hoping for full deforestation soon

.39 rain today.

The NAM is tentatively scheduled to be retired in March 2026. After a ton of delays through the years for various reasons, we finally have a time. I'd expect it may shift a bit, but the point is, the end is finally near.

Another fairly well modeled to overperforming event

Choose and cut Christmas tree farm

It's probably gonna be amazing scenery in the western UP. Heavy wet snow clinging to everything then it freezes up then fluffy drifty lake snow. 2-3 feet possible near Ironwood. Always not fair when a lake belt gets slammed with synoptic snow first. So jealous!

A colder pattern is now poised to develop in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region. The odds of a moderate (4" or above) to perhaps significant snowfall (6" or above) in Chicago Saturday into Sunday has increased. The daily record snowfall for November 29-30 is as follows: November 29: 3.0", 1942 November 30: 3.0", 1907 Those 3.0" amounts are also the two-day records for November 29-30. Even if the daily mark isn't set on either day, the two-day figure for November 29-30 will likely be broken. In the wake of the storm, Chicago will likely have its snowiest fall since 2019 when 8.3" of snow was recorded. The snow should then spread into Detroit, Windsor, and Toronto Saturday night and Sunday.

How many perished in srn VT?

100% agreed. I do not get excited for acute threats until we're inside D3 anymore.

Winter is coming

I still say we all create the first weather model betting app.. put money on GFS vs EURO..etc. u know the models will get better in a hurry with all that competition

When Roundy speaks, I listen. This is heartening.

Holy shit! That’s insane.

Yes, moths here tonight too.

And that’s what I was meaning last week about wire to wire…as great as 95-96 was(and it was awesome here..still holds the record), if you melt out completely like that, that’s not wire to wire imo. And yes, 95-96 came roaring back big time…and it doesn’t get any better than that season, but that melt out broke the wire to wire imo. But that’s just my interpretation. It’s like going 15-1 and then winning the superbowl…absolutely incredible season and postseason! But ya can’t say you went unbeaten/undefeated…or wire to wire.

Cool but 7 days out. Maybe something to keep track of. I don't see a VA snow in this one.

Way too early in the season for a big event in our neck of the woods. But establish the pattern, and hope it sticks as we slide further into December

Worth noting that the 1703 windstorm in southern England was on these dates in the Julian calendar and would have been on December 7-8 in the modern calendar (the change took place in 1752). The storm is often called the Daniel Defoe storm because the famous writer described it. There was also a storm surge up the Severn estuary that reached heights of over ten feet above high tide levels. This storm happened near the tail end of the Maunder minimum and that era had a number of very destructive windstorms around the North Sea region as well. Although that was a much colder climate, the year 1703 was relatively warm; there is some speculation that the low was an extratropical hurricane remnant although no direct evidence of this can be found; it did track in from the southwest.

@nrgjeff, basketball season is here! Vols get a big one against Houston. I like how they played down the stretch in that game. How are the Jayhawks this year?

This feels suspiciously too high. It's worth mentioning I've noticed the AIFS-ENS has a tendency to show snowfall in areas that are just really heavy rain no matter the temp. For instance, I remember Jamaica had a 1-2" snowfall mean right before Hurricane Melissa made landfall. I'd personally stick to the traditional ensembles until they can fix whatever this issue is

It’s a cult.

Dude that is heartbreaking. How many hours apart is that ?