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I just went and bought a snowblower based off of this post

18z GEFS…solid bump

Cantore is headed to Washington DC.

FYI that is taking sleet and considering it snow

I love those "blizzards" with 5-15 mph winds

Phew. Remember how we felt at Christmas? Last year when we whiffed? We’re on track to make up for it and then some…

Solid run by the 18z GEFS but u can see the slow wobble north with the snow. Where does it stop?

Please keep the storm south. I have to travel up north to Vermont on Sunday. I'd much rather it hit North Carolina. My nephews (4, 3 on Sunday, and 5.5 months) have probably never seen a snowstorm before, and they'd probably welcome it. I've seen my fair share of snowstorms, and don't really need it right now.

That’s ip/zr.

I’ve been trying to keep up with the info here on the models. I live right around the 40/75 split…can someone give a best guess on what we will see? Weather channel lowered our snow to 3-5 inches. While that would be great, I was anticipating more out of this system. Can anybody simplify what is really expected? And what do we need to increase our snow forecast for this storm? Thanks! .

I see Reynolds on WJHL is apparently showing the 12Z GFS forecasted Totals.

Yeah, more or less. I was alarmed and concerned but when the 12Z CMC, UKMET, Euro, all came in (and the ensembles, including the GEFS), I considered the GFS to be a major outlier solution.

One of the biggest forecasting misses in modern East Coast history

Camel non filter wides! .

I have. After the big miss on the winter hurricane of 2000, that following December the models and even NOAA was calling for 12-18” across Central NC. Storm systems did not phase, and so we got zip. Not even rain. Just dry.

Anybody on the inside have access to Cantore's flight plans?

Just got back from Japan last night. It was part of a Japan/Taiwan vacation, but we squeezed in a couple days at Shiga Kogen. It's on the Ikon, so my lift tickets were free, but cost $57/day for my son (adult window price). We essentially had the entire mountain to ourselves skiing weekdays. The lifts and hotels are a bit dated, but you can't beat the price. $200/night for a hotel room on the mountain that included a full buffet breakfast and a 7 course dinner. We stayed at a traditional Japanee lodge, so we slept on futons on the floor. They had a nice natural fed onsen in the lodge which was nice to soak in after a day in the deep pow. It was an overall awesome experience, and we'll probably go back next year. The only thing that sucks is the 12 hours of a flight, but when you add it all up, it's a better deal than skiing out west and a waaaaaay better experience. As for the snow. Not sure if they average as much snow as they've been getting this winter, but they got dumped! If you're not used to skiing deep, deep pow, Japan might not be for you. They do a good job grooming, but if you duck into the woods, or seek the higher elevations, do not stop! But if you do, do not get out of your skis! The pow is so dry and light you will sink down to your thighs.

Was just coming to comment on this. Those are all-time record lows on that map.. We rarely ever see that extreme on modeling, and have seen -10s occur about once a decade...mid 80s, early mid90s, mid-late 2010s.....I think we would have to have deep snowpack to get there. But the overall setup on modeling (HL and EPO block) would support very cold temps if we get snow on the ground. While the GFS run is over cooked, its low temps do have some support across modeling. I cannot imagine those temps w/ the power out or no alternate source of heat.

George says blizzard. That's all I need to hear.

Being honest I was never sweating the 12Z GFS run. We dont have a big storm without that model losing it 4 or 5 days before onset. It is like clockwork.

Just going off climatology, the GFS is almost certainly going to correct north. Central Georgia is not seeing two feet of snow.

In some of the lightest green #blessed

I wonder if this storm could rival the 1940 blizzard that set the all-time snow record in Richmond for 21”.

And probably continuing to snow for about 8 more hours

I love a good snow porn but come on now :eyeroll. Pretty to look at though. .