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I just measured .4” in Marysville! Beatuful surprise snow to freshen up the snow pack.

I think it’s just a confirmation bias. You see a shitty OP run and your like, “oh FFS look at this, you know this will happen” see a nice OP run and it’s, “no way on earth that’s happening”

Ops have most definitely led the way picking up on flips at times but it's pretty logical. Beyond 5 days, ops are about as accurate as a single ensemble member. They basically are a single ensemble member. There are times when ops consistently diverge from the mean long range pattern and its the first sign of a change. Works both ways though. Sometimes ops consistently diverge from the mean at long range only to cave in that direction (for better or worse lol). That said, it always grabs my attention when ops keep spitting out a cold pattern in the lr when ensembles are grim. It can be the first sign of a flip that isn't showing on the means. You can take it a step further and sort through individual ensembles and see how big the camp is that agrees with the op and see if that camp starts growing over time. Gives more confidence to the idea. Make sense?

What is the average time frame for one to remain negative? Wonder what effects it will have going into spring. Also with a -NAO wonder what effects it will have.

I was thinking 71 and 46 but that's just me

That -WPO has got to be one of the most persistent features I've seen on models. Don't take this as an addition to the warm vs cold debate, I'm just struck by how well that Aleutian ridge is holding on. It's not just that there is a ridge there either, but how stout it has been.

The winter canceled chatter is quite prevalent in some forums. I for one will not complain for some warm days. This cold snap was brutal. The electric bill could use some rest. lol.

What do you mean by "non-initialized warm front", exactly?

That crucial tenth of an inch of snowfall recorded at PIT today assures us of double digits for the month of December for the first time since 2020.

Ah good call! That’s it

Had a low of 9 this morning.

Is that really a cutter? It doesnt even make it into the contintental US. Its just a northern stream storm a few hundred miles north of us.

Pattern where you have to be patient and hope we get what we need to get to shake things up a little down the line

Did Friendship Airport open in 1950?

Previous years with similar ENSO/IOD/PDO patterns. They tend to have cool Decembers, but torch in January and February.

Ok Brett, so if we use this logic of yours, where’s your take on the 12z Euro? Not a peep from you about it? Why not? It looked pretty sweet. But no comments on it from you…I mean it is whats being advertised..right? Just like that GFS run you were bitching about earlier today. Either one of those have just as much chance of verifying…right? The fact is…both of those runs have a very low chance of verification 8-10 days from now. See how this works brah.

The 18z GFS joins(?) the 12z Euro in muting the chinooks with multiple cold front. I did notice ensembles beginning to cool off at 12z (look at the run 2 run for reference). I hesitate to say the GFS joins the Euro since the GFS was the first to the party and then went and smoked a cigarette on the back porch at lunch.

It’s either gonna be toasty or chilly on Xmas. Every GFS run oscillates between that at this range. I could see C Va at 70 and N Va at 45 with this set up.

I found 3 instances at Detroit where more than half the seasons snowfall fell by December 15th. Thru Dec 15...season total 2005-06: 21.0"...36.3" 1890-91: 17.2"...31.4" 1932-33: 13.1"...25.9" For comparison, season average is 42.7" with avg to Dec 15th being just 5.5". 2025-26 is at 12.6" to date.

So you're saying you're not happy for the rich kids in the Hamptons frolicking in 8"?

It happened here

Yes indeed! It's tapering off here now, I just measured exactly .5".

We just don't know. Could they happen? Sure, but it's just really hard to know. For anyone.

Miller bs edit - maybe that ridge orientation does’t work as is for a miller b