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Good burst of snow this morning.

i cannot identify a difference between the 0z and 12z CMC

Doesn't make sense - they have 2" for Bel Air, then 43% of getting 1"+ 1" is much more realistic around here - the 12z GFS looks like ~1", less SE

More like Tuesday afternoon. Looks like I'll be out plowing by midnight/2am if the timing on the models holds

It will

Gfs looks about right to me in terms of reasonable solutions.

We got some of that here too! Pleasant surprise, not a bad thing at all.

A dusting in the city

I believe a good comparison would be December 5/6 2009. Offshore track resulting in hours of white rain. Areas just north and west had a moderate accumulation. Actually a perfect benchmark track.

GSP mentioned Winter Weather Advisory coming either later this afternoon or tomorrow morning for all of the Mountain areas including the SW Mountains for tomorrow night. Looks like snow changing to freezing rain event. They are also mentioning the next event would be Thursday night into Friday with snow likely for all areas including Asheville/Hendersonville before changing to sleet/freezing rain. The upcoming medium range continues to advertise a fast progressive pattern with moisture every day or two into next week.

Yes you will

Its the furthest east of all guidance, I'm not sure what to make of that as i didn't follow how it has been this summer and only going on how it was last winter and it was off a bit then too.

TEMP _________DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 -3.3 2.5 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.1 SNOW _______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD ____DTW ___ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV 10.0" 20.0" 40.0" 37.5" 45.0" 92.0" 40.0" 6.5" 80.0"

Gfs is a toaster here. Looked a bit worse than 6z

32.4° -SN has begun

Is tomorrow’s system thread worthy or nah?

Its all about the banding whether we bust high or not. Short range models show a lot of the banding to be in the south west corner of the state. We shall see how everything sets up. Regardless "we should" see our first real snow accumulation for the season.

Well storm starts developing in about 24hrs so pretty much should know an outcome by tonight. If models can’t get a storm right 36hrs out well then I ain’t going to waste my time on them the rest of the winter lol

I mean the euro op has to come NW at this point…right?

Agreed

It was more consolidated and tracked over 41/69 at 983mb.

I stand corrected....WB 12Z RDPS

That step down process really worked for us last year.. we got nailed before the gulf coast got theirs.. oh wait

That double lobe thing mostly gone, with the primary low moving NE off Delmarva and deepening. Nice looking run.

More in line with Rgem outcome now. And more matches nws forecast.