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Winter 2025-26 has seen Phoenix's warmest December 1-January 22 period on record.

Yeah, most models are going apeshit with 1”+ over 12hrs. Wild ride coming.

I heard that the temps out west have been colder than projected. Maybe it will be the same for us.

I’d just like to say the only long range forecast that has a 90% success rate is one where there’s a low in the lakes…. kidding aside, I’m concerned about pipes popping across the state with the amount of cold in the forecast…

4.1° here at WXW2. 9° in Amarillo with -SN and a wind chill of -9.

once we're 24-36 hrs out, we'll see if we can get a couple

I like when the world’s best model shows up to 10” of snow imby

I wasn't trying to be hard on you. Like i said you aren't the worst. Hell most of us muck up threads at some point. If they all tried to do better like you are willing it would be fantastic. Just keep learning cause there are a lot of smart people here. Not me tho. I'm dumb as fuck.

100%. We had one pipe bust in ours years back in our current home due to a cold snap. Our drain from our AC also busted - which reminds me! We keep a heated coil on it nowadays. I remember during 1985 sitting under our house trying to fix a split copper pipe(inserting a new section) and trying to sweat that pipe. At -22F, everything refreezes instantly. It kept blowing out the joint when we tried to put things back together. We finally had to go get cardboard and put it on the ground in order to withstand the cold. Also that winter, my dad and I put a starter in a 1972 Impala in the K-Mart parking lot here in Kingsport. Those two days were the coldest of my life. Great memories, but so cold.

This has got to be the most winter storm watches at the same time since 2021 or Groundhog Day 1 or something

It might. Just saying that we would reduce Monday snowfall if it ends up a bit north. We’d still prob get a band of steady snow for a few hours with the vortmax rolling through…even the northerly solutions still have that. But if we want a positive bust to the upside, keep that low a little south and rip 40+ knots at 925 out of the east and ENE. That would help give us high ratio fluff that lasts into the evening.

Those are our high end evolutions.

Stein chucking deep https://x.com/growingwisdom/status/2014838042087854473?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Surface map is showing the front has crossed the area and my dp dropped down to 6F within the past hour. Am currently at 30 after getting up to 37 as a high with 18 dp.

Records: Highs: EWR: 62 (2018) NYC: 63 (1874) LGA: 62 (1967) JFK: 56 (1967) Lows: EWR: -4 (1936) NYC: -3 (1936) LGA: 3 (1976) JFK: 2 (1976) Historical: 1780 - The coldest day of the coldest month of record in the northeastern U.S. A British Army thermometer in New York City registered a reading of 16 degrees below zero. During that infamous hard winter the harbor was frozen solid for five weeks, and the port was cut off from sea supply. (David Ludlum) 1916: Browning, Montana, saw the temperature plummet 100 degrees in 24 hours on January 23-24, from a relatively mild 44 to a bone-chilling 56 degrees below zero. 1969: An F4 tornado cut a 120-mile long path from Jefferson through Copiah, Simpson, Smith, Scott, and Newton Counties in Mississippi, killing 32 and injuring 241 others. Property damage was estimated at $2 million. An inbound Delta Airlines aircraft reported a hook echo on its scope with this storm. 1971 - The temperature at Prospect Creek, AK, plunged to 80 degrees below zero, the coldest reading of record for the United States. (David Ludlum) 1971: Alaska, and the US, lowest official temp, -80F (-62.2C), was set at Prospect Creek, a Trans-Alaska Oil Pipeline construction camp. Fun fact: the low was initially recorded as -79F but adjusted after thermometer calibration 1987 - Strong winds ushered bitterly cold air into the north central U.S., and produced snow squalls in the Great Lakes Region. Snowfall totals in northwest Lower Michigan ranged up to 17 inches in Leelanau County. Wind chill temperatures reached 70 degrees below zero at Sault Ste Marie MI and Hibbing MN. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Northeastern Colorado experienced its most severe windstorm in years. A wind gust to 92 mph was recorded at Boulder CO before the anenometer blew away, and in the mountains, a wind gust to 120 mph was reported at Mines Peak. The high winds blew down a partially constructed viaduct east of Boulder, as nine unanchored concrete girders, each weighing forty-five tons, were blown off their supports. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Low pressure brought heavy snow to Wyoming, with 18 inches reported at the Shoshone National Forest, and 17 inches in the Yellowstone Park area. Gunnison CO, with a low of 19 degrees below zero, was the cold spot in the nation for the twelfth day in a row. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - A Pacific cold front brought strong and gusty winds to the northwestern U.S. Winds in southeastern Idaho gusted to 62 mph at Burley. Strong winds also prevailed along the eastern slopes of the northern and central Rockies. Winds in Wyoming gusted to 74 mph in Goshen County. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

GEM looked pretty similar to the GFS at the end of it's run at hr 240.

Some of the short-term models are showing 2 to 3 in./h rates at times on Sunday. It doesn't take many hours of that to get near double digits.

That’s what was so sweet about the GFS. It’s like a true miller A, almost LBSW and just as it hits our latitude the northern stream dives in and it goes boom. Man…

Disagree. I think even JFK gets at least 8”. Maybe LGA gets 10”, but I don’t see JFK at 4 and LGA at 12”. It’s never happened before and doesn’t make sense here either.

The cold front is rolling through. You can feel it. It's windy and the temperature dropped like 3° rather than like 10 minutes.

It’s a SWFE, I don’t understand why there’s been hype wrt 18”+ totals? Sure, there might be some lollies on the coast, but for the interior folks it’s moving out too quickly to be anything historic. Should be pretty awesome and wintry for everybody so sit back and enjoy.

32/ -1 and dropping. Cold settling in - storm Sunday - Mon - Icebox through the ground hogs day festivities (at least). Looks to be sub freezing the next 180 hours or more. Storm chances in the 1/31 - Ground hogs day period. Moderation beyond feb 5.

That is about the coldest 18Z GFS run i have seen. Could this be a year that tributaries freeze over? Around here i dont think that has happened since late 1970s

Not sure it was that or there was just more precip.

Looks like 12z EURO captures it, but a couple hundred miles too far east.