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I hadn’t really noticed it until I was watching TWC this morning and saw their model blend for the upcoming days, but it looks like there’s a bit of a bread and butter pattern setting up for the coming week, with 3 potential winter systems through the weekend, and 4 over the course of the next week. Modeling shows a system tomorrow night, one Friday night, another Sunday into Monday, and then another on Wednesday. Nothing jumps out immediately as having the potential of the one we had over the weekend, but the recent GFS depictions of the Sunday/Monday system would certainly be in that ballpark. None of the other models really have that setup, and temperatures would potentially be an issue depending on the track, but the GFS is typically pretty good with these patterns, so it’s certainly something to watch. The BTV NWS forecast discussion doesn’t highlight anything too notable at this point, and they mention the potential for warmer temperatures, but they definitely talk about the pattern setting up. We haven’t really seen a Northern Greens bread and butter pattern in a few weeks, so it’s good to see a possible return. It’s definitely worth watching to see if any of the systems or the cumulative accumulations set up any decent or partial resurfacing for the slopes like we saw this past Sunday. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 706 AM EDT Wed Mar 18, 2026 A series of fast moving systems are favored Saturday into Sunday and again later next week as mid/upper level flow goes more near zonal in the base of a long wave trough.

Only 25 last night with some clouds keeping it from dropping to 20.

Sample size of one, but for my solar array: 12/20/25 - 3/17/26: 1.2 MWh of power produced 12/20/24 - 3/17/25: 1.4 MWh of power produced 12/20/23 - 3/17/24: 1.4 MWh of power produced So, call it a ~15% reduction in power produced due to cloudiness and snow cover between last winter and this winter (and the winter before that too). Feels worse than that though.

It looks like an early final warming this year, yes

extended looks dry across nearly the whole country, severe season will be off to a slow start, blessed for our recent rains/action because the zzzzzs are back

Hello fellow Philly Dilly. Grew up in Roxborough in the 90s.

I think it was May 02. The shit winter bookended by early and late season events.

The long-advertised historic March heatwave is now gathering force in the Southwest. Already, monthly high temperature records have fallen in Burbank, Camarillo, and Thermal. Monthly marks were tied in Flagstaff and San Francisco. Downtown Los Angeles missed its longstanding monthly record from 1879 by 1°. Although Palm Springs missed its monthly record by 1° yesterday, it demolished its monthly warmest minimum temperature record by 5° with a low of 75° (a level not seen previously until April 21st). Following the conclusion of a winter that was the warmest on record for many parts of the region, the signature for a possible heat event appeared far in advance. ECMWF Weeklies: March 1: The guidance remained persistence and moved toward an extreme event as the lead time shortened. ECMWF Weeklies: March 7: The final ECMWF weekly forecast from March 15 showed a record-breaking event was imminent. ECMWF Weeklies: March 15: Despite the attention high-profile urban areas receive, the entire region has been warming. Southwest (1980-2025): Warming can produce a non-linear increase in the frequency and severity of heat events, including outside of summer. The March 2012 and September-October 2024 heat events are examples. Climate Central has estimated that climate change has made the forecast event for the Southwest/West at least 5 times more likely in much of those regions. One can expect an avalanche of monthly records over the coming days. Some records could reach or exceed April monthly marks.

That's in the past as far as I'm concerned. i just wanna talk weather. If they ever have OT again, I don't want to be a part of it and I won't be allowed anyway lol. Philly is for a number of reasons - but mostly family. I have a ton of family there. And I'm from there.

wondering if this is ewr's record wind gust from the south

yes by doing that it almost guarantees more snow by early April - this type of pattern with one colder than normal outbreak after another through early April increases the chances IMO.

I think this is a fair take for nova and areas that got the final line. However, I’m in central VA and that second line had nothing to work with so for areas around where I was it really was a slight risk in practice. I do think the core of this issue might be the new system. When the SPC issues a 4/5 risk for wind I think it should call for something more than what occurred Monday. While it was a legitimate severe day for parts of the region, I wonder what happens if we get a storm that fulfills a slightly higher risk? Do we say it’s a 5/5 risk? That seems unfair when I think a true 5/5 risk should be a plains deracho with swaths of 90+ mph winds. These 4/5 and 5/5 events should feel rare and exceptional and are labeled as such to spur the public to action.

22nd's the latest, personally... I was living in a metro west amid the Dunkin' donuts, ATMs and pub crawl town of Waltham. Great memories of then.. I was in my late 20s amid random vectors of 19 year old bouncy' boobed, Brandeis and Bentley bums passing by in every direction. We used to do sets of Tennis amid, and then Mad Raven, or Joe Sent Me, or go into Boston to the Poor House ... I don't even know if those venues still exits outside the confines of fading nostalgia anymore - but I refuse to let the memories die. Oh, right... so it was 22nd of May I think. 2001 I wanna say but for some reason I mix up 2001 and 2002 events a lot. Anyway, it was 9:30am and 38 F as wind swept sheets of cat paws and occasional noodles enough to silvery glow the previous years bark mulch beds, while surely confused green daffodil shoots poked through. If you looked at the sky you could get a sense of the snow field aloft as it undulated past. Pure cold coastal ... doing all it could against climo. That was may 22nd. I'm like ... 20 days before the Solstice - really? On July 4th it was near 100 if memory serves. Went on to be a warmer than normal summer.

It reminds me of the 2013-2015 winters, but just less precip/snow. Satellite does show clearing to the west, though. Hoping to get some afternoon sunshine.

Given what I boldfaced, that A+ for 95-96 seems odd because of all the pack-destroying rain events. It did have loads of snow - the 138" was tops by 30" in our 13 winters at Gardiner - but it was only 5th for SDDs. I haven't tried to apply my rating method on those 13 years, but if I did, I'd guess no higher than B/B+. Looking at the continuing period of meh wx (since the April 2024 paste bomb), I noted that both last winter and the current season had no snow forecast ranges that extended above 12". First time we've had consecutive winters with such modest forecasts and it's very doubtful there will be any warned storms before 2026-27. Also, only 3 warned events this winter and last. Only 15-16 with 2 had less. We finally had a strong storm but other than a few IP to start, it was all rain. The 19.6" storm in March was fun but had only 0.77" LE and little wind, a modest storm that had fabulous dendrite formation. Looks like this will also be only the 8th winter in which pack failed to be sustained thru March 31. Unless we get a snowy surprise, my rating will probably be a bit lower than what I proposed upthread.

19 last night and cloudy now

Definitely impressive for this point in March!

Top gust at the Maytown Parachute Club was just 42 mph. At the very top of Kinderhook Road there are a couple of yards that are still almost fully blanketed in white from Monday night's snowfall.

Can you post any maps?

Could an earlier than avg final strat warming be coming next week? This suggests some chance. Opinions? @snowman19

It’s going to get there sooner than later, that’s when it gets dangerous. Mass misinformation that will only be clarified with forensic analysis. Fun times.

Diet Mnt. Dew here

Not looking forward to summer in NYC. Awful times ahead.

Yes I think its time to put away my shovel and my winter mats in my car. Going to cancel Stormvista today.