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We’ve had what…. 1 fantasy run all season? When you can’t even buy snow on the long-range models in peak climo… remember when we were “setting the stage” with the Virginia snow in early Dec?

31 / 28 cloudy. Warmup commenced today with areas into the upper 30s - low 40s. 50s for many Wed - Thu and Fri ahead of a general 1 inch (ish) rainfaill Saturday. Beyond there near normal 1/12 - 1/16. Likely a back and forth below - near - above normal - tilted below beyond there 1/17 - beyond.

13-14-15 is still on the table. Altho probably favors the latter end of that range if there's going to be an event. Obviously we have nuisance to lower level advisory issues in the nearer terms, but writing in terms of more broadly supportive support for canonical events, which is beyond these foreground concerns. The 00z EPS/GEPs/ and even the typically hesitant GEFs still attempting amplitude along the OH-MA with +PNA arrival. Typical to find events in that spatial-temporal reordering of the super synopsis. Then beyond then ... ~ the 15th-18th, the hemisphere gets interesting. That +PNA lending to a bit of an H.A. signal appears slated to be a transient index state as it soon de-amplifies. However, changes in the forcing scheme upstream across the expanse of the Pacific lends to an original and new -EPO approaching the 20th. Quite amplified as of last night's means, too. No clue from this range what that will mean, but odds hugely sloped in favor a cold N/A loading period. Not a warm last 10 days of the month given the previous week's arrival into these 300+ hr mean structures...

Warm wet, cold dry. We need the rain though.

understood and i feel mostly the same. wish we lived closer to the good stuff.

WB 6Z EURO. Rainy period on tap for Friday-Sunday.

Y'all got any of them Rossby waves???

I basically have two jobs. I’m in my key earning years. I love snowboarding, ice hockey and snow mobiling but I don’t live right in the mountains/country where it’s directly accessible. I’m here because I want those things *close*. Otherwise the weather that supports this stuff just makes life harder. Especially for my dog.

New thread for the new year for Saturday? @Kmlwx Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Friday: Lower MS Valley vicinity... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over the southern Rockies is forecast to take on a positive tilt as it moves eastward on Friday, as a northern-stream shortwave trough digs from the Canadian Prairies toward the Upper Great Lakes. Some guidance has trended weaker and farther south with a surface low developing near the lower MS Valley by Friday evening, though a relatively large warm sector is still expected to be in place through most of the period. Scattered to widespread storm development is expected from parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley, with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection and some attendant severe threat. Some adjustments to the 15% area have been made, based on guidance trends regarding surface low placement and the northward extent of the favorable warm sector. ...D5/Saturday: Parts of the East... Uncertainty regarding the synoptic pattern increases by D5/Saturday, with varying solutions regarding the extent of mid/upper-level trough amplification across the eastern CONUS, and the strength of the related surface low. Guidance generally agrees that buoyancy will be limited across much of the warm sector on Saturday. However, any organized convection that develops Friday night may persist into Saturday morning across parts of the Southeast, with some potential for an isolated severe threat. Farther north, the strongest solutions (such as the 00Z deterministic ECMWF) depict notable intensification of low/midlevel flow from the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic, which could result in some damaging-wind potential with any low-topped convection along or ahead of an advancing cold front. ..Dean.. 01/06/2026

State College has seen one of the steepest snowfall declines in the Northeast since the 1960s when they lost the Miller A track just east of the Apps around 20 years ago.

+5F above average or a Top 10 warmest month. Since 2015-16, that has happened at least once in the November-March period, except for 2018-19: 15-16 - November, December, March 16-17 - January, February 17-18 - February 18-19 - None 19-20 - January, February, March 20-21 - November 21-22 - December 22-23 - January, February 23-24 - December, March 24-25 - November, March

fwiw, looks like an extra day of thaw is being added on the backend of this weeks Jan thaw. Fropa now sunday.

6z AIs are a flashback to the old biases of the old OP Euro and GFS. GFS is progressive and dry with the eastern US and the Euro got shortwaves stuck in the southwest. If the new bias of the current models holds true (feedback cutoffs over the west coast and baja), pretty good run of the 6z GFS too. Ensembles still suggest best opportunities start around the 15th.

This is probably the first time that Western North America experienced such an extreme temperature difference during the month of December. https://bsky.app/profile/climatologist49.bsky.social/post/3mbnq36jn6c2y Climatologist49 ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬ Follow December 2025 temperature departure from normal for the U.S. and Canada. 12:41 AM · Jan 5, 2026 Everybody can

you say that like it's a bad thing. Maybe NNE isn't for you anymore.

his split flow is evident aoa 1/17 and beyond. Just like the wierd cold pattern we've been in, its about timing of two streams/vorts. At least the SS will be open for some business and cold will be a bit more stable and close by when needed.

31.92" here on the season, Should get close to 34" or so after tonight.

Negative ghost rider. Specially up in your neck of the woods. i'd think SE of the mtns might get a few peeks, but w/ that SLP traversing to your north, I'd think you are socked in.

Another foggy morning. Not sure if the cold makes it here anytime soon other than brief cool downs

The models actually trended worse overnight and most developed a SE Ridge... I wouldn't pay much attention to last night's GFS. It already switched up at 6Z

Happy 30th Anniversary

My station precip for 2025 was 33.96".... This was the driest on my record of 45 years. The two previous driest are 37.68" in 2001 and 38.26" in 2016.

Do your penance.

If somehow the coastal slows down and the cold air gets to it, we might be onto something but...