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paradoxically, all those nukes going off at once would actually be a good thing if looked at through the lens of climate change, as it would result in a sudden and immediate drop in temperatures.

That southwestern edge of the heavy rain will have to move a bit SW on this map judging by the heavy batch about to spin into NYC and LI.

W Suffolk, and Nassau are about to get into the good stuff. Pouring in Brightwaters.

science fiction writers are smarter than most people and have been incorporating this into their stories (as well as environmental collapse) going all the way back to the 1920s.

About to rip on the island. This batch coming in from the south means business. Should drop a quick inch. Rates in these setups often exceed radar depiction.

the reason coastal areas have warmed more is because the oceans are heatsinks. We're very lucky the oceans are there to do that, otherwise the entire planet would have become like Venus already. It might yet one day anyway when the oceans become so warm they are completely saturated with heat.

It's interesting how much the ocean has sucked up the heat which has stopped the increase of 90 and 100 degree heat which peaked in the 1990s (with another peak from 2010-13). The earth is trying to balance out humankind's excess by dumping the heat into the ocean, let's see how long that lasts.

Looks like the axis of the most favorable parameters shifts quite a bit throughout the day. This is going to give alot of "false hope" for some because for the areas getting hit now and will later and the areas missing out...those areas missing out will eventually get it. Tomorrow is going to be interesting with a quite a bit of convective elements involved. PWATS are quite high for the entire region through tomorrow so just about everyone is going to get involved at some point.

Yeah. Tough forecasting specifics in any one location.

Got down to 44 last night.

Nothing on our plate but drizzle and fat in West Chester. Was supposed to golf today. Could have played. Glad we didn't though. Rescheduled for next week.

That end of week into Saturday costal idea the Euro has. Hopefully that can be tossed as we get closer. Seems very suspicious

Seems like models sort of all over the place with the rain.

Enjoy your time in PA!

Got 1.6” this past event.

Let’s keep discussion of this here instead of the drought buster and long range thread.

Slight Risk today for wind and hail.

Congrats north and eastern areas

Euro seasonal update is out today - trying to get more details. https://x.com/davethroup/status/1917659431531053391?s=46

Picked up .45" rain overnight. Pretty tight gradient SE to NW on that one, friend in New Cumberland got .22" and Blizz mentioned over .8" for him.

This is a good take.

Ha, beat me to it. Here’s a thread looking at the environmental conditions forecast. It’s not gospel, obviously, but it’s another piece of the puzzle.

Hot off the press: 1. The May 2025 Euro Atlantic basin forecast numbers for 2025 are pretty similar to the April 2025 Euro forecasts for 2025. They’re actually slightly less active with ACE of 110% vs 120%. That’s still an ACE of 130-140, not at all quiet. 2. The May 2025 Euro forecasts for 2025 are way less active than those of the May 2024 forecasts for 2024, but they’re not calling for a quiet season as they’re calling for near the normal for the current active era: -ACE: 110% vs 200% -# of H: 7.1 vs 12.8 -# of NS: 14.5 vs 22.8 -Activity from Gulf through NW Caribbean, Florida, and Bahamas is similar to last month’s forecast, which is notably lower than 2024 with it enhanced in May of 2024 (almost all red on the map those areas) vs mainly near normal (vs current active era) in May of 2025 (actually has slightly reduced vs active era’s normal (blue) in small areas)(see images below) In summary, the latest Euro (May) is similar to the April forecast for the 2025 season with near normal vs current active era (not quiet) vs well above normal in their 2024 forecasts. May 2025 forecast for 2025: near normal of current active era May 2024 forecast for 2024: very active

Local stations report about 0.8" since Friday. Hoping to add maybe a half inch to that today if all goes correctly. Drought busting? Nah. Drought avoidance? yep

Tropical downpour in Calvert. Heavy rain and thunder, very soupy out.