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it’s the new math

Maybe in extreme southeast Lanco…

Yeah, all that pushing and shoving. Hope you didn't hurt anybody

Anyone have the sleet/frz rain map? How much of this is actually snow, I can't see the precipitation maps or soundings.

there's probably going to be some OES enhancement into Essex/Suffolk/Norfolk Co.. possible even as far W as eastern Middlesex/ Worcester/ N RI. Not sure how we can avoid it with 15F air pouring out over the GOM and then turning that back W into eastern zones without embedding those mechanics, too. CF may coexist with this, too ... making things interesting for sub-meso scale totals.

That's why we call the 18z model runs this time of day Happy hour,,.... Cause half the models act like they are drunk

I hope so… the liquor cabinet is about empty

That is a crazy good solution for most of SNE. Prob widespread 12-18” with a few higher lollis

King GFS?

ECM-AI looks great! At worst it's a hold but it looked a hair flatter and colder. It can't resolve warm layers so they'll be more sleet on the southern edge than shown, but I trust its synoptic representation more than the GFS. Clearly a lot more amped than the GFS but it suggests NYC can approach the higher end of the 6-12" as opposed to languishing towards the lower end.

We should, except for maybe 2-3 hours of mix worst case. Being conservative obviously.

18z Euro qpf

Yeah I think it is a weathermodels map

We need clown maps stat.

Lol, asking for a friend, can’t it close at 1 am ? (He wants to see the 0z Euro…)

Saturday Night Snow, mainly after 1am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 12. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Sunday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 19. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Sunday Night Snow, mainly before 1am. Low around 16. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Monday A chance of snow before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 24. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sounds suspiciously like what an undercover MRX met would say....

Right image. They’re opening a door I’m walking in. Tell me not to. .

My God, is the GFS actually leading the way?

NW of 70 looks to stay snow too?

18z Euro AIFS is pretty similar on where the heaviest band of snow is from the 12z. Overall there is a bit of a compaction on the northern side (less QPF) of the system as a whole.

I'm not sure it's a tick south but holding onto the cold longer before erosion

What’s your elevation over there?

Yeah..was just about to post. Seems wetter overall too?

18z AI-EURO ticking a hair colder and dials back the precip just a bit in northern New England. Confirms widespread +1 foot with QPF ranging from 1.1-1.4 across all of MA, CT, and RI. South Shore looks to be the jackpot.