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Next week is 80’s all week

Nice soaker this morning. Temp down to 56.

Getting a soaking rain here the past couple of hours. Down to 57 degrees.

Correct. Out of all the “recent” super El Niños (1972, 1982, 1997, 2015), *at the current point in time*, 2026 is most similar to 1997

Yea you’re good. Im thinking of the 4 days Fri-Monday I lose one to rain. Will lose either Sunday or Monday to rain—trending to Sunday but it’s in and out quickly. Expecting that trend to continue. On the days with sun it will be near 70. Nothing to complain about up here. It’s a shit setup though for the CT, RI, southeast MA.

2025 and maybe 2026 are going to go down as spectacularly mediocre in regards to this part of the country. I wish I were wrong

The ATL flooding was from a small cell that really only affected half the metro. Very small cell but extreme rates where it sat

I didn’t say 1982 was W based overall. I was specifically referring to the mid May snapshot, when it was actually W based. I said, “In mid May vs 2026”, 1982 was more W based than 2026: 1982: 1+2 was coolest in mid May 12MAY1982 -0.6 0.5 0.4 0.7 19MAY1982 -0.4 1.0 1.1 1.1 2026: 1+2 is warmest in mid May 13MAY2026 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.6 So, as of mid May, 1982 was more W based than 2026. Later (July and beyond), I agree that 1982 clearly transitioned to E based. But my post was referring only to the snapshot as of the current point in time, mid May.

Amazing how different the UP is compared to the lower peninsula.

.03 yesterday, 0.33 overnight.

Jackpot zone so far from southern MoCo through HoCo. Around 1” for me. Couple thunder claps last night around 10-11pm were LOUD house shakers. Let’s keep it rolling today!

We have a dry-line-like phenomenon that is part of our spring/summer climo in New England that isn't really very well recognized. I've noticed too many times then can be counted since moving to this region of the country ...decades ago, that when it is hot and humid and a corrective cool front is approaching, we gap dry air out ahead. The synoptic mechanism for this may not be too terribly different than what happens in W Tx... in principle. We have higher elevations W, check. Wind tendency to veer S of said higher elevations. Heating E also tends to trough the structure of flow subtly, which induces W d-slope component, W of the psuedo trough axis. The result manufactures a dry line along the trough's axis... The real front is still back up stream mid NY/PA. Not exactly the same but I see similarities there. The main difference is that whence the d-line forms here, it races E. That's why we get that deep blue sky with dry cough sear heat still 88 to 91 degrees N of the Pike like we did yesterday so often in that set up. You see anvil heads on the S horizon.

The big temperature swings pattern continues. We saw something like this with the record warmth and hard freeze earlier this spring. Now it looks like afternoon temperatures will be the upper 40s to low 50s on Saturday following the upper 90s a few days ago.

.03” overnight. With a 90% chance of a trace of precipitation throughout the day. AKA English spittle all day. Heading down to Wolf Trap for a concert tonight. No horrible heat but the drive down with rain will for sure be interesting. Opting to take 15.

Thank you! Here’s to another year of woo storms and woo sleet and woo drought with you and all the other weenies

Next week looks like great weather. Mid to upper 70’s and dry.

My inner city street and back yard at the height of the storm. As always …. IMG_1322.mov IMG_1323.mov IMG_1324.mov

Just drizzle at the moment but that's a nice slug off to my west

May need the heat here on Sunday. I’ll take the rain. Goofus is basically a goose egg after this weekend.

Already raining at the house this morning.

Eric Finkenbinder proeSdstongm2tufgtg04g4tc8lggulc10l73l9mi34hh9t03c1ht5h119u4 · Far western Juniata county received over 3 inches of rain Wednesday afternoon!

It could be related to the EPAC near Nino 1+2 not fully cooling off following the +2.1 ONI event back in 2023-2024. All the ONI events over plus +2.0 since the early 1970s had a stronger return to La Niña conditions in the following years even to Nino 1+2. We can also notice the La Ninas following super El Niños weakening over time. The recent La Niña was one of the weakest on record following such a strong El Niño. Plus back in November of 2024 we had a Nino +1.2 warming leading to the Nino-like December 2024 pattern and the 2nd warmest CONUS December with the record +PNA for a La Niña December. Many people commented how it looked like a El Niño December. The Aleutian Low was actually pretty strong for a change. Very unusual Nino +1.2 warming in November 2024 and Nino-like December 2024 So it appears that the 2023-2024 and 2026-2027 events are almost running together like the 2023-2024 event never fully ended. Something like this hasn’t happened before in or modern climate era. So it will be interesting to see what happens following this event in 2027-2028. La Ninas getting weaker following +2.0 ONI El Niño events 1972-1973 ONI +2.1…..1973-1974 ONI -2.0 1982-1983 ONI..+2.2…1984-1985 ONI..-1.1 1997-1998 ONI….-2.4…1999-2000 ONI -1.7 2015-2016..ONI….+2.8…2017-2018 ONI…-0.9 2023-2024 ONI +2.1….2025-2026 ONI…-0.5 Nino +1.2 never fully cooled off between El Niño events which is a first in the modern climate era.