All Activity

I’ll say this, if we can salvage something on the 15th, it would go a long way in changing the tenor of this season. Still looks like a low chance, but not impossible.

It's a thought I've had too. I have to do some stuff for Anchorage so I'm always paying attention and after like the first week of December they've been largely below average and temperatures and its been active at times into western Alaska. I've said to myself several times man...this look for Alaska doesn't totally bode well for us. Just wish I've been able to really divulge deeper into everything, particularly the state of the PAC.

I hope everyone realizes my post was trying to make a point.....it ain't easy getting everything to line up for a BECS/MECS.

See this is crazy to me! 30" storm - 2 2 foot storms in a week - 0.9" for an entire season....all in the same place!

Heh... W. Europe actually positively correlates to eastern N/A in classic climatology. That may be changing based on everything over the last 20 years ..But the Alaska thing is true. The reason for these is just typical wave number spacing. When there is a trough in Alaska, there tends to be a ridge down stream. And vice versa... That all said, there's not really a silver bullet - I realize the idea of when in Rome is just to make conversation point. Still, we can't just signal some aspect and assume that's what's going on in a vacuum. Case in point, with a month's worth of oscillation between -WPO and -EPO...that implies sharing time/space in a ridge state over Alaska, yet they're snowy - so something else is playing around with it.

Paul Kocin cooked that metaphor up. He gets all the credit.

I still think we see the +TNH @Krs4Lfe, so I get the 2014 comparison...but devil is in the details.

Ninja.

EPS look still not bad to good in fantasy range, just need to get there

I would need to look at the phases with respect to seasonal intervals, but that may also have to do with why we couldn't buy a storm...usually stormy patterns for AK aren't so great here. The fact that it was early in the season may have allowed for colder conditions out here relative if it had occurred mid/late winter, too....wave lengths and MJO correlations change at different junctures of the season. Again, just a thought...won't look in depth at this until May for the postseason write up.

As an executive chef, I support this post.

Down to a trace of snow cover with 10% coverage. Patches of snow only in heavily shaded north facing locations. Will be gone by end of the day with much more sun than yesterday and the corresponding milder temperatures. Now we wait....

I was in Waterbury for the December 19th storm. I was sitting in a conference room at the State Office Complex and the wind was so strong it was pushing water into the room around the window seals. I would not call that "minimal damage" to the snow pack. Outside the mountains, it pretty much set us back to bare ground.

Usually when Alaska and Europe is having a fantastic winter, we aren’t. The lack of cold and wintry weather across US (aside from Midwest and northeast) has been astonishing. I know some accounts keep harping on “2014 is coming back” but this is the farthest thing from that winter. Just mild and dry as far as eye can see

Usually works for respective reporting stations in SE PA. Worked in my studies for kdyl and kphl, cannot confirm other reporting stations.

Ridge axis as shown is too far west for my liking but 204 hours out that can and and will change for better or worse. Would also like to see the upper low over eastern Canada displaced more to the east and the corresponding ridge to the east displaced more SSW. Not the most ideal map as shown. Although kind of pointless to be dissecting a 204 hour prog. As we all know no phasing no big snows so a long ways to go but at least something to keep an eye on. DEFCON 5

The MJO isn't triggering? - just pointing this out in general... The MJO has a constructive vs destructive large scale interference requirement with respect to the super synoptics ongoing in the hemisphere. As an example of this, the N. Pac thing last month ... That was overwhelmingly a negative interference conflict at large planetary scales. The Pacific just suppressed the wave from propagating E. So to your point, if the wave happens to be in constructive interference then it certainly will add/help modulate the ongoing synoptic foot

Heard some form of frozen precipitation early last evening but didn't invest until this morning. Never seen ice quite like this. Snapped a picture of a few before they are gone. Longest pieces are half inch plus. Thoughts?

Certainly no lack of winter there. Anchorage has been in the ice bowl this week...some pretty decent cold for them given their proximity to the water.

Today's euro weeklies don't look torchy in Feb here, fwiw

All of the good skiing is in AK.

At least we aren't the west...mountain areas going to be getting nada after today/tomorrow for the next few weeks.

Pretty (somewhat unexpected) active morning across the OKC Metro this morning with widespread severe t'storm warnings and even a couple tornado wanrings. The last time this happened was January 2021, which foreshadowed a very (for some folks, historic) cold/stormy pattern the following month.

Pretty much a week of AN to well AN with a cool shot thrown in. Again all well forecasted by guidance.