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Meanwhile the 3.4 sector is at historic levels relative to September +ENSO typology. And I mean somewhere between gaspingly and laughably so ... Kind of hard to think CANSIPs is onto a much of anything other than introducing error when 3.4 is the opposite direction of eastern orientation. huh It is what it is I suppose but frankly - and I've realize off all but excoriated in the past of this... - anything with the letter "C" in the acronym of the models title rolls eyes for me. Unless the C does not stand for Climatology, the given model's machinery has to have some sort of a updated "RONI" analog methodology or it's less useful to me. Obviously ... because we'd be comparing a present day moving goal post on a fixed game field - the two have to change geometry together to be valid... No offense to CANSIPs. LOL if the models adaptive than fine. But even if so ... the orientation as of the Sep 9 update at CPC just looks like a massive pan-dimension heat bomb from eastern 4 clear to the masses of fish adorning the Peruvian shores.

JAMSTEC and CANSIPS essentially now shaking hands on the east-based orientation of El Nino this winter, but I do think the hemispheric evolution of the European guidance makes more sense. I think the Japs and Canadiens are overselling that second half flip in the seasonal mean.

The JAMSTEC pulls of the unicorn scenario that I was discussing with @Typhoon Tip in that it's an east-based event that essentially acts as a Modoki due to the residual cool ENSO influence/Pacific basin warmth biasing the forcing west of where one would expect based on a traditional synthesis of the basin. Very similar to what happened in 2023 when it looked like a Modoki at the surface, but ended up heavily MC oriented....forcing pulled westward. Do I want to bet on that actually happening in the seasonal mean? About as much as I want to be locked in thread alone with @forkyfork, BUT it does confirm my early hedge to advise caution to those forecasting a season largely bereft of winter on the east coast once we get to about mid January and beyond. This season appears bipolar to me.

Though I am certain many that frequent here as tropical enthusiasts and mets are bored stiff, I am not. Several, including [mention=1766]vortex95[/mention] have mentioned the importance of a season like this for data acquisition, trends, and analogs for study and future reference. We aren't just setting a record now. We are shattering it. Clearly, we're in rare territory. With the shear values at record levels across the basin (the exception being pockets of favorablility over the GOM and SE CONUS), we're going to have to consider the potential of null and void development over the MDR and central Atlantic basin persisting into closure of the season. Normally, we get a hybrid system that transitions into a fully symmetrical TC somewhere during October and November. But if the upper-level environment remains status quo, that may not occur this year. Really, the only potential could come from a CAG system during late September and October, but it's going to take some luck. I still do think we get a hurricane in the GOM or WCARIB, but we've only got two months to see that to fruition. Clearly, whatever is transpiring with this record-breaking El Niño is overwhelming whatever has anchored the extended +AMO decadal cycle and shut that down, at least for now.

ya I know

This record breaking 600 dm ridge is ridiculous for September.

Something we’ll all be posting Dec-Morch is how we are all in the 50’s

The southern plains and southeast really can't take a break from the heat. It's like there's a permanent ridge over Oklahoma now.

Next week looks closer to average. But it will feel much cooler due to how warm this month has been so far. So something approaching more fall-like weather.

Low of 51

Got down to 51 with a dew of 48. More of this please!

With that said…40.9° here. Mins

Low here of 57 a couple miles from the Bay. Some spots on the Bay were 63-65

Next week looks cool and wet

"Supreme Court rejects Trump's plan to limit mail-in voting in midterms" -CNN Gee, maybe there's hope for the sovereign identity of the U.S.A.

What's interesting to me is that, like the CANSIPS, it's been correcting east with the El Nino, but it doesn't really make much of a difference in the forecast output. This is consistent with what I have been saying about how orientation isn't going to be a huge deal this season given the magnitude of the event at hand. While I think the JAMSTEC and CANSIPS are overdone, you don't need to convince me that forecasting a season largely devoid of winter weather on the east coast is utter folly. It's certainly not going to be wall-to-wall cold and snow...but I think we are essentially trading a great deal of MC influence for a canonical east-based first half, and quite frankly, that is a trade I want mother nature to render final approval of, yesterday.

Something you wont say in January with a moisture laden system on approach

Yea, ignoring consensus trends is silly.....precision verification isn't the point.

I’m just being technical. The accuracy is greater than +/- 1F so your precision is really only integers. We call that MPM 30s.

48.3 degrees for the low! So nice!

That is impressive....the magnitude of warmth under ridges is always underdone in these modern times, so no biggie....did about as well as can be expected.

Parts of Fairfield County are at 30” of rain since June 1st. This beat the previous record by 3.5” at BDR. Last year was the 3rd driest over the same period. Very impressive to pull this off without any tropical systems. Just goes to show how much more moisture the record warm atmosphere can hold. https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/the-atmosphere-just-set-a-water-vapor The Atmosphere Just Set a Water Vapor Record More water vapor means more rocket fuel for extreme rain — so this record is not good news Data for June 1, 2026 through September 15, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. BETHEL 0.5 E CoCoRaHS 30.13 BETHEL 3.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 30.11 TRUMBULL 2.6 SSE CoCoRaHS 29.44 STRATFORD 0.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 29.35 DANBURY COOP 28.33 SHELTON 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 28.16 FAIRFIELD 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 27.87 BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 27.67 IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 27.23 NEWTOWN 5.3 S CoCoRaHS 27.11 NEWTOWN 4.6 SE CoCoRaHS 26.76 NORWALK 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 25.90 STRATFORD 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 25.90 SHELTON 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 25.65 BETHEL 4.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 25.13 Wettest Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT 6-01 to 9-15 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026-09-15 27.23 1 2 1971-09-15 23.73 0 3 2011-09-15 21.52 0 4 1992-09-15 21.34 0 5 2006-09-15 21.06 0 6 1972-09-15 20.97 0 7 1952-09-15 20.35 0 8 2021-09-15 18.83 0 9 1982-09-15 18.52 0 10 2000-09-15 18.40 0 Driest Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1964-09-15 4.36 0 2 1995-09-15 4.37 0 3 2025-09-15 5.25 0 4 1993-09-15 5.71 0 5 1948-09-15 6.37 30 6 1966-09-15 6.62 0 7 1957-09-15 6.98 0 8 1970-09-15 7.52 0 9 2005-09-15 7.57 0