All Activity

I recall that the Dog Days of Summer were referred to as such from ancient astronomers because the appearance of the Dog star Sirius during Summer was erroneously thought to have added heat to the Earth. Never heard the mad dog claims though.

Initially looked and sounded like it could be serious.

92L is up and likely a recurve but nice to see something atleast

He was pretty damn good the latter half of last season. Getting off this wretched team was the best thing for him. New life. He will generally give quality starts.

Yeah, will be fascinating to see how the north Pacific responds through this event. Given the deep -PDO state of the atmosphere it is encountering. El nino is certainly ramping up. AAM about to take another step up from the upcoming MJO cycling and associated WWB. Getting impressive too with a forecast mean remaining above 3 SD. If we look at the world view. We can see the SH jet has been, and is forecast to continue to be very impressive. Along with El nino conditions really getting comfortable in the tropics now as of late. A little bit of El nino's influence appears to be trickling into the NH now as well. The forecast has that continuing also and increasingly so as we get towards the tail end of the month. So envision a slow take over, if you will. As we go through the fall. That's my guess. Will be interesting to see if that's how it plays out. I think that makes some sense given the underlying resistance in the Pacific. I personally doubt that resistance will ultimately be too much for this event. Not one of this magnitude, this one's a behemoth. But that is a battle worth watching in the north Pacific for sure. Would still love to see a recurving typhoon or 2 as well but there's time for that.

If incompetent gaslighter Elias unloaded him, he will win a Cy Young. Congrats.

Not directed at you, Don ... so be careful with that trend line. m is not that sloped going back to 1895. If one does the d(m) they come to find that the slope is not linear. It is actually some exponential. y=x raised to some power probably less than 2 granted, but the expose' is that it is "accelerating" ... That is really a dangerous state of affairs. Because that rate of acceleration is, in itself, not deterministically constant. All the archeological climate date shows that the rate of green house fixing attributed to anthropomorphic activity has exceeded the rate of any fixing event by 100x, since the last ice age a mere second on the geological clock. That is unprecedented on any timescale we can be archaically measured. Earth is behind. The 2023 type bounce evinces that intuitively. What this intuitively implicates is that the Earth is "behind" so to speak. That's the danger. An assertion that is ominously supported by global correction events - which I strongly suggest 2023 spring was a the trend's superlinear effecting a synergistic 'bounce'. Math's track record forecasting how nonlinear feedbacks compound (cloud response, aerosol unmasking rate, ice-albedo timing ... non-Markovian effects on systemic return rates... etc..etc) is worse than its track record on the linear CO2-forcing terms. There are more bounces probably coming ladies and gents.

Gonna poke around Belmont harbor with the ultra light later

Storm blew up right over the house around 4:45.

QPF for me from the NWS for the Wed-Sat period was cut in half over the last 24 hours, right on schedule. Call me a weenie but we've seen this all many times over the last 9 months.

February 12-15 more likely tbh. Won’t say no to double dipping though!

Previous page

.35 so far, looks like more moving in

The further E AOI is now Invest 92L. UKMET: just S of PR as a dissipating minimal TSNEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 10.3N 38.1WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------0000UTC 13.08.2026 36 10.5N 38.6W 1010 261200UTC 13.08.2026 48 11.4N 41.6W 1010 290000UTC 14.08.2026 60 11.8N 44.6W 1011 301200UTC 14.08.2026 72 12.8N 48.1W 1011 300000UTC 15.08.2026 84 14.0N 51.9W 1011 331200UTC 15.08.2026 96 15.3N 56.1W 1011 360000UTC 16.08.2026 108 16.2N 60.5W 1010 341200UTC 16.08.2026 120 17.0N 64.2W 1010 350000UTC 17.08.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING

Was in on a huddle with their WCM during the storms. The justification for the mass tor warnings was based on the reports of 95 MPH gusts upstream, equaling EF-1 speeds.

Sitting on the porch it's pretty damn comfortable out

Ironically a multi year drought whose effects were enhanced by poor land management …. also remains, ‘Responsibility Ours’. As always …..

We need this! I'm guessing a small rain wrapped tornado? https://www.fox61.com/article/news/nation-world/wind-flips-car-over-ohio-freeway/507-bdd319f9-20bb-4f8e-8238-ed65ddee0ba4

And finally returned around 10:30 this morning. Out 18.5 hours. Had some rain early this morning, more around 11 am then more with thunder started around 1:30 pm and still sprinkling. To the west they've had a MUCH more active day.

Nasty line coming together now

A DP of 82 at 4pm is diabolical

It looks like the streak of -SOI days has ended 11 Aug 2026 1016.05 1013.30 6.86 -21.05 -22.10 10 Aug 2026 1014.90 1012.95 2.00 -22.57 -22.32 I've noticed over the years that when an ENSO variable wanes, other parts of its correlation pick up (more +PNA pattern for the next 13 days).. weird.