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a few cooler days after Saturday than the heat returns according to NOAA CPC

Not only does it show the strongest El Niño in history, it shows it being severely east-based/East Pacific like 1997 was. And it looks like a new downwelling Kelvin wave has begun to form in response to the big WWB we are seeing:

Yup. The temperature inversion was evident on the nighttime low temp map on the mesonet. Baltimore City already up to 77 degrees at 8am.

The latest June update from the ECMWF has the ONI plumes Nino 3.4 average around +3.6 and the RONI near +3.0.

Yes but I’m getting a little anxiety knowing the sunrises start getting later in 10 days and we’re just now getting sustained warmth.

Picked up 0.02" early this morning.

Local CT met didn’t seem too impressed with this set…

Whittling away at

The whole tone and tenor of the board has changed now. Folks going from upset , complaining, angry to happy , with extra jump and pep in steps. Amazing how deep summer setting in changes and super charges everyone

Yeah, step-by-step we are getting into summer now. Everyone rejoice!

Next week looks hot after Monday. Tuesday won’t be scorching but it’s getting there

Definitely been quite substantial MCS activity the past 2 weeks before May ended. With a good amount of power outage-causing CG lightning (even structural lightning fire & damage reports also). Along with severe wind and flood reports at least over the southern part of state. With all the steep ML lapse rates (over -8) that were definitely in place, there were even a few very powerful + CG lightning strikes. And the most powerful + strike (400 kiloamps), I've ever seen on lightning strike data that must've sounded like a hydrogen bomb even 40 miles away. - - - - - S/SETX has gotten the most rainfall with over 10 inches now in the past 30 days. With some spots over a foot in the Coastal Bend region.

Code orange air quality alert here today

The super El Niño warmth has traditionally began later in the summer and persisted into the following summer. So this year we are getting off to an early start with the warmth. Even against the warmest 1991-2020 means, the ensembles have the usual warm spots close to +7 to +10 over the next 10 days. Since normal highs this time of year are only in the upper 70s to around 80° next week.

Some signs of life in the long range as tropical moisturizer potentially heads our way

48 degrees this morning. More clouds

I actually think the risk could extend right to the coast, but they’re probably going with typical climo.

Yesterday's high and low were 87 and 48, which is a testament to the dry air currently in place. The deserts outside the Phoenix heat Island were the same. The other positive to that is/was the clear air with no haze.

UAH6 spiked up in May. Matching the timing of the initial rise in other recent strong/super ninos (1997, 2015, 2023). The rise in UAH is a sign that tropical moist convection is increasing.

Still think storms on Saturday evening and then again Sunday aftn. Obviously not everyone sees them, but NAM has decent mid level lapse rates (700-500mb) moving in Saturday evening. Hopefully we have a decent Sunday until about 2p or so.

Still signs trough retros to GL and hopefully a more humid second half of the month.