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I think it has value for higher end events, but some may interpret it too reductively...IE, lower RONI=Weaker EL Nino=colder. I interpret a lower RONI in a high-end event as more competing forces around the hemisphere than would normally be expected with such a high ONI, like we have spoken about. Having a lower RONI and the ONI in an El Nino is often an ominous sign for NE snow lovers IMHO.

NOAA and other agencies maintain both the ONI and RONI. The paper it’s based on developed it more for marginal events like weak La Ninas and El Niños where the WPAC warm pool was extending more influence than the Nina regions. This was not specifically designed for higher end El Niños or La Ninas.

Feels like we should change Southern New England to Stein England except for SWCT.

Ooof, that was a horrid winter for snow lovers.

Chris, are you disputing NOAA? NOAA is saying as I think you must realize that measuring against average overall worldwide tropical ocean warming is a more realistic gauge of the strength of ENSO events. Why else did they convert to relative measures for official measurements? Also, BoM has switched among other organizations.

63 this morning any heavy fog. Had another one of them small blips on the radar yesterday . Thunder & lightning and .23” of rain.

Would you agree that changing the name of Manchester Regional Airport or Hot Springs, New Mexico may be in a different class than major international bodies of water? Just speaking in terms of factual size/scope.

Tuesday through Thursday next week has at least some potential showing on the AI guidance.

RONI is a relative metric to other areas of SST warmth. It’s not a realistic gauge of how strong the actual El Niño event is. The planet doesn’t care about relative metrics as the global temperatures are setting records every day now with how extreme this event is becoming.

ch ch ch ch changes https://youtu.be/6alVaijX1lI?is=J-vamgaICxAq068q

As we head into the last month of summer the Super Nino starts the first few weeks off as you would expect. Stay installed and stay cool . Wake us up when Septorcher ends .

I don’t think we got a drop last night. Can’t wait for this murky shit to get out of here. if anyone has the time or inclination, come on up to Ashburnham to The Ramble music festival on Saturday. Proceeds go to the New England Home for Veterans. Fun time overlooking Wachusett mountain.

Yup. Both the Euro and GFS, heck even the GEFS, try to pop a 594dm ridge from Tennessee to North Carolina next week. The upside of this is that it opens the door to some NW flow potential in these parts.

Ivyland received 5.25" of rain in under 2 hours. The flooding around here was the worst ive seen since living here. Most branches of the Neshaminy well over their banks. Almshouse rd, Bristol rd, and Mearns roads among the worst in the area. Now we just need the cold

Yeah not sure that’s on the same level as changing the name of JFK airport or Fort Bragg .

I like to remind folks when I read x-posts like this this from Brody Cowing that ignore using RONI types of measures that some of this intensity of warming in the Nino regions is due to GW and not purely due to the strength of the Nino, itself. When using relative/RONI records put out by NOAA, it’s clear that Nino 1+2 isn’t currently at record highs: 20AUG1997 3.8 2.6 1.8 0.4 19AUG2026 3.2 2.5 1.8 0.0 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

I will repost what I posted on X in response to Martz's deflection, "I was not aware that climate change causes earthquakes and mudslides." The opening sentence fits. My response: "The CFACT policy analyst again shows how little he knows. A large chunk of melting glacier plunged into a valley, creating the 5.2 shock and triggering the devastating mudslide. Tectonic processes were not involved. Glaciers are melting due to climate change." It should be noted that Martz dishonestly posted his claim hours after the USGS made clear that the shaking was the result of a glacial collapse and debris flow, not the cause of those events. The USGS update was carried widely in the reporting on the catastrophe. In other words, he deliberately chose to mislead in order to push a false narrative.

Way too much focusing in our backyard and not the larger climate picture. Tell Western Europe right now that people want hot summers more than normal summers. There is a reason why San Diego is often thought of as the perfect climate, and it isn’t because of hot summers…

Urban spots away from the seabreeze made it to 10 days reaching 95°+ again. This has become a common theme in recent years. In the old days we would get cooler summers in between. Data for January 1, 2026 through August 28, 2026 #95°+ days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 10 NJ HARRISON COOP 10 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 10 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 10 Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Jan through Dec Most 95° + Days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2002 22 8 2 2021 17 0 - 2005 17 9 3 2022 16 0 - 2012 16 21 - 2010 16 30 4 2020 15 0 - 1999 15 4 5 2018 14 0 6 2024 13 0 - 2016 13 0 7 2025 12 0 8 2013 11 0 9 2026 10 126 10 2019 9 0 - 2006 9 4

So when's the torch to end august? I keep forgetting.

0.62" from the storm yesterday, and attached is the best pic I took from the max eclipse time.

Chris Martz posted this on the day of the Nepal flooding disaster. I’m not posting this because of agreement with him since I vehemently disagree. The one thing I’ve been most concerned about regarding CC/GW is what to me has to be an obvious direct result from it, melting of ice and the resultant negative consequences. How can GW not be a cause or contribution to melting ice? I feel I’m open minded about what CC/GW clearly does or doesn’t cause (an example being global wildfire acreage burnt that I’ve recently been posting about) as well as the idea that there are some significant positive results from it (like fewer hunger related deaths resulting from increased world food supply as well as fewer deaths related to GW since cold has killed many more than heat). Some of my posts do address things like that. Also, I’ve recently even posted about the coldest 80N+ late May through most of the summer since at least 1958 per DMS stats possibly contributing to less melting of Arctic ice area this summer vs recent years. But in the case of melted ice in general, I don’t get the doubt about CC causing it like Chris Martz implies: @donsutherland1@chubbsand others, any comments?

Conestoga under flood warning .