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Still around 30-40% snow cover here in 21057

This makes a lot of sense

Like this is objectively a pretty good trend on h5, at least I think so. But 06z specifically just struggles to tilt because of unhelpful interactions between the two waves. Keeps it positive even though the placement and strength is better. In the good ending, this is a transitional run and we keep shifting W with the main energy and that blunting of the heights lessens. In the bad ending, well, most models show that already.

Sure, but by definition a KU is an extreme event. Put all storms on a bell curve and we “define” KUs as those storms well above that +2SD threshold. Everything has to come together to reach those upper limits.

Good trends overnight. Remains to be seen if the GFS caves to the Euro or vice versa. The biggest difference between the two that I see is that piece of energy in Canada at 500mb. On the GFS, it dives down. On the Euro, it stays closed off which messes up the timing. Someone who knows way more than me can provide a better explanation of what's going on here.

Snow is taking a beating here. My front yard is sun torched and wide open and it’s down to a few inches in spots. Neighbors shaded yard across the street still well over a foot. That time of year

have you looded at cmc/euro/ens? Not sure I'm feeling the same as you. GFS might be BEST, case scenario, but plenty of other guidance showing a decent event. We've all done this long enough to not focus on best case, as odds are extremely low of it verifying, but consensus suggests were getting a modest event sunday.

Just looked it up. Not even close to a record it looks like, unless a lot more hits today. 26.6 in the 24 hr for Hovland, so will see what the next reading is tomorrow am for storm total. Maximum 24-hour snowfall 36.0 inches January 7, 1994 near Finland Lake Maximum single storm snowfall 46.5 inches January 6-8, 1994 near Finland Lake

This is why KU s are rare.

I love his page. He's like "here's the gfs run, it's garbage and not correct" leaving the soccer moms scratching their heads and unsure if they should share it.

Sadly I believe this is the outcome:

Here’s the problem in my eyes, and this is completely serious. The aggregate is not good. When you take every piece of guidance, ensemble, etc? They average out to a miss. You also can’t really afford a compromise. A compromise of the euro and gfs solutions is a miss. You’re essentially hedging that every model is entirely wrong with the major players for the system. Because even models and ensembles with a hit are mostly confined to Se New England. Given all the information, I’d put the odds of a region wide hit at like 5% and a plowable SE graze at like 15%

Ugh, really can’t help but think we’re so close looking more at the euro… higher heights behind to support a stronger trailing wave, which is centered further W and stronger, and the heights ahead did not get worse and really in the large scale maybe got a bit better, but for our neighborhood the leading wave blunts them.

Some of the upper atmosphere stuff of the other models including the euro are starting to come around probably not to that extreme but maybe it'll be something in between.

Edited my post more. I’ve said it before…I think of the systems and their “energy” as bodies in spacetime…the more potent or massive they are the more they bend the spacetime. Small bodies have less pull on massive bodies but can still affect their trajectory if they’re close enough.

This. You really want to see surface temperatures more like 28-29 versus 31-32 to start having concerns for ice accretion and anything of subsidence outside of causing slick spots on untreated surfaces.

Couple models were showing that yesterday. Rain to start before the transfer to the coast. ICON being one of them.

But he said how unreliable it is.

Right, it would be nice though to see a more consolidated SW that doesn’t have to rely on that

It can’t get much worse so thank goodness. Hopefully will make tracking next year little less of a headache.

Its a model, not an oracle. I see it both ways, Euro is a good weather model, but if one setup/type of storm gives me pause with Euro here - its these. I'm still waiting on my 40 inches the Euro promised me in January 2015.

Last night when the AI euro shifted west I thought it was a good sign that the other western guidance wasn't complete bs. Still, it would add confidence if the Euro Op showed something closer to the GFS or the CMC. If I'm not mistaken the AI euro is better past 5 days but they get fairly close in scoring within 5. @donsutherland1 probably has better data on that.