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Records: Highs: EWR: 88 (2011) NYC: 86 (1916) LGA: 85 (2011) JFK: 87 (2011) Lows: EWR: 35 (1988) NYC: 37 (1988) LGA: 40 (1988) JFK: 35 (2001) Historical: 1703: Early-season snowstorm from Philadelphia to Boston. "The snow is now three to four inches deep... a sad face of winter" (Judge Samuel Sewall's diary) 1804: New England's Snow Hurricane of 1804 - - - At Norfolk, winds shifted from Force 3 southwest (on the Beaufort scale) to Force 6 northwest by 2 p.m.. A schooner Rising Stakes, off Cape Henry, went through the "dreadful squall" at 11 a.m.. The system passed through Chesapeake Bay, then inland between Philadelphia and Atlantic City before moving onward to New York City and Boston. Eight perished offshore. As it passed through the Northeast, it became a nontropical low as cold air rapidly enveloped the circulation of the cyclone. Snow fell from the hills of Connecticut northward into Canada. As much as 24 to 30 inches of snow fell in the Berkshires of Massachusetts...which in a wet snow could be approximated to six inches or more of liquid precipitation. This was the first reference to snow involved with a land falling tropical cyclone, but not the last as this happen again in the April th and 7th storm of 1889.(Ref. for Snow Hurricane of 1804)(Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1804: The famous Snow Hurricane moved ashore near Atlantic City on this day. After briefly passing through Connecticut and into Massachusetts, cold air was entrained in the circulation with heavy snow falling between New York to southern Canada. Berkshires Massachusetts and Concord New Hampshire record two feet of snow with this hurricane. This storm produced the first observation of snow from a hurricane, but not the last. Hurricane Ginny of 1963 brought up to 18 inches (400 mm) of snow to portions of Maine. 1895: Snow fell in Philadelphia, PA, the earliest occurrence of snow in the city's history. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1903 - New York City was deluged with 11.17 inches of rain 24 hours to establish a state record. Severe flooding occurred in the Passaic Valley of New Jersey where more than fifteen inches of rain was reported. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1903: At Richmond, a "furious wind storm" descended upon the city the morning of the 9th, accompanied by a 20 degree fall in temperature. Trees were uprooted and communications were "disturbed" in the state capital. An elderly man in Leesburg drowned while trying to cross over Little River on a log. East Coast Storms 1924: Boston, Massachusetts started a period of 44 days without measurable precipitation today. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1944: Major hailstorm in Montana causes $7.5 million crop loss. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1970: The Weather Bureau is officially renamed the National Weather Service. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1973: Heavy rains and hail pounded extreme eastern South Dakota during the late evening hours. 3.79 inches of rain fell in a 2 hour period at the Sioux Falls airport setting a new rainfall intensity record for a two hour period in Sioux Falls. The 4.54 inches that fell that day is the second highest amount on record for a 24 hour period. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1980: Nashville, TN set two records in opposite directions. On Monday, October 6th, the morning low temperature was 31°, a record cold for so early in the season. Then, on this date, the high was 91°, a record high for so late in the season. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1981 - The temperature at San Juan, Puerto Rico, soared to 98 degrees to establish an all-time record for that location. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Eighteen cities in the southeastern U.S. and the Middle Atlantic Coast Region reported record low temperatures for the date. Asheville NC dipped to 29 degrees, and the record low of 47 degrees at Jacksonville FL marked their fourth of the month. A second surge of cold air brought light snow to the Northern Plains, particularly the Black Hills of South Dakota. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Ten cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Hartford CT with a reading of 28 degrees. Snow continued in northern New England through the morning hours. Mount Washington NH reported five inches of snow. Warm weather continued in the western U.S. Los Angeles CA reported a record high of 102 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Unseasonably cold weather continued in the Upper Midwest. Thirteen cities in Ohio, Michigan and Indiana reported record low temperatures for the date, including Marquette MI with a reading of 20 degrees. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the western U.S. as the San Francisco Giants won the National League pennant. San Jose CA reported a record high of 91 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 2001: An unusually strong fall outbreak of tornadoes spawned at least 23 twisters across parts of Nebraska and Oklahoma. Hardest hit was the town of Cordell, OK, but a 22 minute lead time led to an amazingly low casualty count: only nine injuries and no fatalities. 2003: A severe thunderstorms rolled across Bikoro in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Lightning struck a school, killing 11 people and injuring 73 others. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2005: A major winter storm brought heavy wet snowfall to the Front Range Mountains and the Eastern Foothills in Colorado, portions of the Denver Metro area and the Palmer Divide. Snow accumulations ranged from 8 to 26 inches with drifts 3 to 4 feet high reported in places. The heaviest snow occurred to the east and southeast of Denver closing major highways, including I-70 from Denver to Limon. Snowfall totals included: 22 inches near Hawkins, 19 inches near Bennett, 17 inches southeast of Aurora, 16 inches in the foothills near Boulder, 14 inches near Parker, 13 inches near Castle Rock, 12 inches in Centennial, 11 inches at Parker, 10 inches at Littleton and 10 inches at the airport in Denver. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

59 / 46 looking like upper 60s to mid 70s across the board. Weekend split again nice Saturday mimic of Friday and a wet Sunday into Monday 1-2 inches of rain. Overall warmer 10/13-14 then cooling down by meid month towards and below nomal.

The odds this maintains cat 3 into landfall are not low. Also the fast forward motion is going to aid in gusts. Very serious situation unfolding now. Hope everyone took evacuation orders seriously

Its out of the south by Sunday

From the AFD at 6:45 from GSP "In fact, the trend in the model QPF is upward on this cycle, but the question remains if the amounts will be enough to raise more of a flooding threat." "Confidence is 50/50 as to whether or not this will be enough to trigger flooding to warrant issuing a Watch this early, so we are leaning away from it and prefer to wait one more forecast cycle."

I’ll be wearing waders for the app game. We’re really lucky it hasn’t been super wet lately. The inland wind threat with this increases every model run.

Got a nice 22 degree halo right now

I need to drive from Charlotte NC to Miami and realize that is NOT happening Saturday but do you guys think I will be much better on Sunday or should I just do the drive on Monday instead ? Thanks for any input

Red sky in the morning, sailors warning.

free libertybell

GDM models absolutely destroyed the physics based models on this storm. How those euro and GFS runs where they had a weak TS still sitting off the Yucatán at this timeframe looking now?

They were holding off for another cycle of guidance to address the potential of a Flood Watch. They started that it was too early to address the wind threat with a Wind Advisory in their morning disco. Always too conservative in my opinion, but it is what it is.

This looks like the type of scenario I can see playing out this winter. A Close race between a cold shot and a big storm.

Idalia should have still been retired. Lesser storms have been retired. Not having a retired storm for 2023 feels wrong. That was probably the most active strong el nino season ever. My guess is that they are probably running out of I names, and they probably won't retire one unless they absolutely have to. Then again, Emily not getting retired after 2005 shows how inconsistent name retirement is.

Cross posting here from the Mid-Atl subform. Crazy the scale of this storm with the jet streak induced diffluence aloft.

I have noticed, too, that GSP never uses the Hazardous Weather outlook. If this doesn't warrant a watch, you would think that they would at least issue a Hazardous Weather outlook. Other forecast offices have.

It might be earlier than that. Keeps bumping up landfall time each run. We’re not working with a ton of time for this to fall apart and it doesn’t matter when the center crosses because that eyewall is obviously out ahead of it. Dangerous situation saw they increased max surge from 7 to 9 feet, not insignificant at all especially with the population center this is plowing into

Managed to get my (now major) hurricane sunrise this morning! Some low clouds blocked it a bit, but still well worth the early morning.

First light

Google DM brings this in around 7 to 8PM. Majority of the models have the pressure bottoming out around 1PM. That give us about a 6 hour window to weaken before landfall. Not much time there to work with at all. Better hope it doesn't strengthen much more this Morning.

BTW, has anybody checked on GSP? They have yet to issue a single watch or advisory for this. Getting on my nerves having counties in my area of Georgia under a Flood/High Wind Watch right next door under FFC but nothing at all from GSP.

I feel like that guy who does those Dos Equis commercials. ISSY once took on 60kt. shear and became a CAT3. When your wrong, your wrong and admit it. Surprised but not shocked. "Stay thirsty my friends." LOL

Recon is heading in for another pass.

65 to 80 mph gusts as far inland as la grange GA???? That definitely seems overdone.

Models accurately forecasted the 10-15 mb drop as it traversed the loop current eddy overnight.