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It's been a rough stretch. At least 0z model watching is easier with DST once there's systems to track.

Now that the models run at the correct times I guess I’m back in. This (snow chasing) hobby is a lot of investment and often times disappointing, but I couldn’t quit it even if I tried. Here’s to another season riding it out with everyone. I hope it’s a cold and snowy one for all of us!

New BoM RONI prog (I love that they prog RONI these days!) is slightly cooler than last week’s prog with NDJ low at -0.9 vs last week’s -0.8, possibly being aided by current very strong -IOD. Last week’s RONI progged low: -0.8

Mins

Be very careful with this...I mentioned to Chuck a couple of weeks ago that the subsurface warmth has been hitting a brick wall around 140-150W dating back to last summer, and sure enough...it has already started to build back. I would read into that more with regard to the EMI thana sign of the demise of the event. We have seen some eorosion on the east flank, which guidance hinted at, but it should be brief. This is going to be east-based and is likely to break -0.6 ONI.

Yeah I wouldn't be surprised if it's toned down a bit with the 12z runs but I guess we'll get an idea when the NAM rolls out and whether it falls towards the GFS/Euro. The NAM isn't too far off from the GFS but the GFS has a narrow ribbon of 130+ knots at 500mb along the base of the shortwave...that's wild stuff.

Week SST anomaly

Maybe it won’t

33F, not quite there.

Records: Highs: EWR: 81 (2003) NYC: 79 (2003) LGA: 80 (2003) JFK: 75 (2003) Lows: EWR: 29 (1951) NYC: 28 (1875) LGA: 32 (1951) JFK: 32 (1980) Historical: 1890 - The temperature at Los Angeles, CA, reached 96 degrees, a November record for 76 years. (David Ludlum) 1927 - Somerset VT was deluged with 8.77 inches of rain to establish a 24 hour record for the state. (3rd-4th) (The Weather Channel) 1927: Historic flooding occurred across Vermont from November 2nd through the 4th. The flood washed out 1285 bridges, miles of roads and railways, and several homes and buildings. Eighty-four people were killed from the flooding, including Lt. Governor S. Hollister Jackson. Click HERE for additional information by Tom Moore. 1956: (1st-3rd) Eastern CO thunderstorms turned into a blizzard by night (1st); drifts to 12 feet high. 16 head of cattle were driven by winds against a fence where they were apparently killed by lightning. Another 33 head drowned when forced into a river by the storm. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 1961 - A rare November thunderstorm produced snow at Casper, WY. (3rd-4th) (The Weather Channel) 1966: An early season snowfall, which started on the 2nd, whitened the ground from Alabama to Michigan. Mobile, Alabama, had their earliest snowflakes on record. Louisville, Kentucky measured 13.1 inches, Nashville; Tennessee reported 7.2 inches, and Huntsville, Alabama, had 4 inches of snow. 1980: The 24 °F temperature range in the local area with a low of 19°F in northwest suburbs to 43° in Washington, DC was very unusual. (Ref. Washington Weather Records DCA) 1982: Surface high pressure along the Mid Atlantic combined with upper level high pressure off the Bahamas brought unseasonably warm weather to the East Coast. Sterling (Dulles Airport), VA: 82°, Georgetown, DE: 80°, Philadelphia, PA: 76°-Tied, Binghamton, NY: 75°, Williamsport, PA: 74°, Albany, NY: 74°, Burlington, VT: 74°, Syracuse, NY: 74°-Tied and Worcester, MA: 73°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - Twenty-one cities, mostly in the Ohio Valley, reported record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 80 degrees at Columbus OH was their warmest reading of record for so late in the season. Showers and thundershowers associated with a tropical depression south of Florida produced 4.28 inches of rain at Clewiston in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A sharp cold front brought about an abrupt end to Indian Summer in the north central U.S. Up to a foot of snow blanketed Yellowstone Park WY, and winds in the mountains near the Washoe Valley of southeastern Wyoming gusted to 78 mph. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the south central U.S. Del Rio TX tied Laredo TX and McAllen TX for honors as the hot spot in the nation with a record warm afternoon high of 91 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Cold weather prevailed in the central U.S. Six cities in Texas, Minnesota, and Michigan, reported record low temperatures for the date. The low of 7 above zero at Marquette MI was their coldest reading of record for so early in the season. (The National Weather Summary) 1991: Brownsville, TX recorded its first snow since 11/28/1976. Only a trace fell but this stands out as significant, since snow occurred so far south so early and the fact that Portland, ME had not recorded its first snow of the season up to this date. The last measurable snow in Brownsville was way back in February 1895 when the local paper reported 5 inches on the ground. Brownsville did not receive measurable snow on any date in the 20th century.(Ref. AccWeather Weather History) Record cold prevailed across Colorado behind the "Halloween Mega Storm". Pueblo dropped to -17°, breaking the previous record for the day by an amazing 28 degrees. Alamosa recorded -26°, breaking the old daily record by 18 degrees. Other daily record lows included: Havre, MT: -15°-Tied, Lander, WY: -12°, Glasgow, MT: -11°, Helena, MT: -8°, North Platte, NE: -6°, Bismarck, ND: -4°, Scottsbluff, NE: -4°, Colorado Springs, CO: -2°, Sioux Falls, SD: -2°, Norfolk, NE: -2°, Missoula, MT: 0°, Clayton, NM: 0°, Fargo, ND: 0°, Grand Forks, ND: 0°, Rapid City, SD: 0°, Grand Island, NE: 0°, Valentine, NE: 0°, St. Cloud, MN: 0°, Aberdeen, SD: 1°, Huron, SD: 1°, Lincoln, NE: 1°, Goodland, KS: 1°, Dodge City, KS: 3°, Sioux City, IA: 3°, Concordia, KS: 4°, Rochester, MN: 4°, Omaha, NE: 6°, Amarillo, TX: 7° (broke previous record by 11 degrees), Lubbock, TX: 7° (broke previous record by 16 degrees), Des Moines, IA: 7°, Minneapolis, MN: 8°, Waterloo, IA: 9°, Kansas City, MO: 10° (broke previous record by 10 degrees), Oklahoma City, OK: 11° (broke previous record by 10 degrees) plus additional cities.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History) Alamosa, Colorado:In Alamosa, the temperature plunges to -26 °F (-32 °C) shattering the old record by 18 F degrees (10 C deg) as record cold grips Colorado. (Ref. WxDoctor) 2001: Hurricane Michelle reached peak intensity on this day as a Category 4 storm. Michelle made landfall on November 4-5, between Playa Larga and Playa Giron, Cuba, as a Category 4 hurricane, the strongest to strike the country since 1952's Hurricane Fox. The storm caused an estimated $2 billion US dollars in damage to Cuba. 2002: A Magnitude 7.9 earthquake struck central Alaska. The quake is the 9th largest to be recorded in the US. 2007: Dense fog in the early morning hours resulted in a 100 vehicle pile-up just north of Fowler, CA on I-99. Two people were killed, and 41 others were injured. The thick seasonal fog is known as "Tule fog" and typically occurs in Central California in late fall and winter.

I’m sure it will tone down as we get closer, but that sig was damaging.

.02" predawn. (Maybe closer to 0.01 due to that Poplar seed stuck in there.)

Oct 30 mb QBO came in at -24.65 vs Sept’s -24.26: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

Too bad that isn't coming through during the day, probably could get a few strong convective cells. But maybe some heavy graupel showers as that rolls through overnight. But yeah that is an impressive wind signal (at least on the GFS) with steep llvl lapse rates and 925mb winds >50 knots.

Absolutely. This tendency is something I pound right out of the gate in my write up.

48 / 46 and cloudy with rain into SNJ from the sothern sstem exiting off the SC coast with some clearing later today. Upper 50s to low 60s for most. Dry and warm rest of the week back into the mid 60s, perhaps upper 60s Wed. Next shot at light rain this coming weekend which could trend cloudier and break the nice weekend string we've had. Trough into the northeast 10 - 12 with the coldest air of the season and first freezes possible, beyond there warmer towards mid month - ridge into the east potentially much warmer. 11/3 - 11/7 : Above normal / dry overall 11/8 - 11/12 : Cooler / cold - first freezes possible 11/10-11/12, rain / storm pssible 11/13 - Beyond : Warming to and above normal - ridge builds east.

Coldest of the season overnight here, 23.0°F

We just don’t know. Nobody knows.

I don't think we get there for an actual SSW early season...it's not without representation in my analogs, but it's a long shot. I think December 1981 pulled it off...my money is on later in the season.

Over/under 12.

2008-2009.

I wonder how many times you’ll post that this winter?

I mean, MEI last year peaked at -1, 2008 was also -1. I know we don't have access to the current MEI, but I really fail to see why it would be any higher than either of those seasons. Again, I think you are getting carried away with the significance of the -IOD, which as you have acknowledged on several occasions, was also significant in 2008.

Trying to cut back on my fb posting. Been averaging one per year for the last 5. Getting out of hand.