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Psychologically, we humans have an ingrained tendency to believe pessimism protects us from pain and disappointment. It doesn't, of course. So it goes here. Endlessly reflecting on our own and each others' psychological status, every season, every week, every day and hour. As much or more discussed than weather, fr. Quite a hobby innit? Can't forget to add the obvious: most of us are also very ill when it comes to snow.

@mitchnick mitch what's wrong with it!

All obs this year for me are from Fallston, MD - 11/30 - T 12/2 - A little frz rain to start - trees and car glazed - but 35 and rain for most of event 12/5 - T (dusting from a few hours of flurries as dry cold death air ate any chance of anything else north of BWI 12/14 - 4” 1/2 - .2" (frontal passage snow squall dealie) Running season total - 4.2”

Pretty nice look IMO.

Most of our thaws put us in the 50s. The January thaws in 2020 and 2023 were insane. 65-70 for most of us. Was a telltale sign that winter was finished. 2024 was a bit more muted, and January 2021 and January 2022 were low 50s for the thaw, nothing too crazy, and we went back to wintry conditions after that. I'm certain we'll crack 50 next week, but anything above mid to upper 50s and that's usually a bad sign.

If it makes you feel any better, had rain in Vegas NYE and was basically damp and soggy all day yesterday. Looks like I’ll be coming back early next week to a warmista pattern (I’m kinda ok with it tbh). Mid Jan looks to be the start of the most important pattern in this forum’s history.

yup. we've been saying that for days... we have to get thru this week ... large sweeping changes in the Pacific have yet even begin. It starts doing so in earnest this week. until that's further along there is likely to be greater guidance variability than normal, even at larger scales of pattern orientation. just gotta wait it out, man

And if the gradient sets up north of you, then it's certainly far north of SNE and NYC area. All the weather stories are talking about the record warmth across CONUS next week. Warmest anomalies will be to our west of course, and Central US has barely seen a flake all season. That's a bit telling imo

They’ve been burned by the years where the warmups started and never ended.

Late January will be crucial...if the gradient sets up just north of me, as it has so often and as @jbenedet indicated, then SNE is most definitely cooked in terms of seasonal totals. Wolfie, please put the fangs away...that doesn't preclude a great stretch, but all I'm saying is that climo snowfall is by the boards for SNE if latter January screw us. Maybe not for select areas in CT that got 8.5" last week-

Negative NAO patterns are useless Give me a negative epo or positive PNA pattern anyday

We can still score with above normal or a near normal temp profile in Canada. What we don't need is an arctic high pressing so far south that it's 0 degree and dry as a bone. Our best snows are thread the needle honestly. Some win some don't but that's winter in the SE.

Jan/Feb pattern forecast:

It's definitely michsnowfreak's time for sure this winter Nickel & dimed to death, but mostly consistent snowcocer and cold, lol...

Apparently as we await the warm up, it looks like deep winter in Chester. Snow on top of snow pack, with temps that haven’t cracked 32 in about 72-96 hours.

I could totally see it taking somewhat longer than mid-month...perfectly reasonable possibility, especially if Canada gets really flushed.

Couldn't have said it any better myself. Gradient patterns rarely work out well for NYC, aside from 2013/2014, 1993/1994, and even 2014/2015 to some extent. We always see some sort of snow in those events but usually, nothing to ever push us towards our seasonal average. The only thing going for us is that we had an above average snowfall for Dec, and well below normal temperatures. This thaw will be big and real, from the 7th until the 12th or so. Hopefully, since we're still in peak climo, we can get some storms after that point. It's not necessarily the cold that's the issue (or lack thereof). I think more of the issue is a very fast northern stream and a tampered southern jet. That won't allow for any big storms to traverse CONUS, leading to persistent mild and dry conditions for Central, South, and West US. Naturally, that reduces our chances for snowfall. Even in seasons where the northeast doesn't do well in the snow department: 2023, 2024, 2020, there's still plenty of activity to our west. This year, there's been almost none. Make what you will of it, but I think we'd be a lot better off with more stormy activity to our west. Without that... meh at most

Feels like I'm in the movie ground hog day, keep waking up to new snowfall lol

This is on point.

Great post....only cautionary note that I would add is that January 2022 +TNH interval worked out south of that line.

Why be a cliff jumper? There are warm ups every year. You'd be jumping every year as if you have nine lives.

These significant and persistent -NAO’s are very efficient at moving the Canadian airmasses south. There’s a catch here though. And that is, the deep cold doesn’t keep building in our cold source regions. It gets distributed and therefore dissipated… We’re evolving into this situation now. You look at a chunk of our cold source regions in Canada and it’s right to +AN… This will stymie the cold/snow performance of a +NAO pattern —in our region—when it first develops…

We get snow in February, March, and in April. It happens all the time but usually with flow snows. We've gotten feet of snow just with flow snows before. Yall just get downsloped so bad that the moisture just hangs out over the border.

incorrect.

Just sifting through teleconnections this morning, the 6z GFS deterministic run is the only model(that I can find) which goes positive with the EPO on the 12th. All other modeling turns the EPO negative - ensembles, AI, determinstics. Could the GFS be right? Certainly. But I have some serious doubts. The real question in my mind which has to be answered(and really cannot be yet) is whether that EPO ridge continues to retrograde into Asia, and whether another subsequent EPO ridge then takes its place. I tend to think it continues to retrograde, but then another EPO ridge reforms as the pattern continues to retrograde even more. That second EPO ridge, in my mind, delivers the worst of the cold per winter toward the end of Jan and beginning of Feb. That does not mean I don't think we see chances w/ the first EPO ridge...I just don't think those details are not worked out in modeling w/ so much being juggled and with us still being about ten days out. It is still entirely possible(probable) that the first EPO ridge sticks, modeling adjusts, and locks in that ridge for 3-4 weeks. I just think a back and forth pattern is more likely as that has been the pattern all winter.