All Activity

Looking a bit stormy in the SE next weekend on the 0z GFS. Euro has also has some convection next weekend. At least we are starting to moisture across the SE after this week.

Watching the cliff jumpers become cliff hangers.

Biggest thorn in LR modeling is a slp in the GL region. Other than that, decent looks after Jan 10. Just need a storm to hookup w/ some cold. I have definitely seen a trend for split flow w/ the EPO ridge. Might be a good sign to see a wetter So Cal in terms of that verifying later on. Getting more precip into the pattern will certainly help our chances. Drought is tough to overcome even if cold.

Looks to me like the transition to an eastern trough is quicker by abut 18-36 hours. I think the first window for snow is Jan 11-12. Likely it is NW flow w/ an outside shot at a wave riding the cold front.

Several cities in the eastern half of state broke daytime high temp records today. Due to the dryline reaching all the way east into ETX. A deeper westerly downslope flow was found even in College Station and Tyler in the afternoon. Aside from the tied all-time January temp maximums in both Austin and San Antonio, the biggest jump in maximum daytime high from previous record for today (January 2), was actually in Waco.

Decent looking 12z suite so far. If modeling isn't seeing cold(as we have seen many times this winter), could be a really good pattern. Overall 500 trends are good. Get that EPO ridge in place, and let's see if we can get cold into those ensuing troughs. The 0z GEM is definitely cold, but rarely isn't!

Quinsigammand lake is starting to freeze over. I’ll try to grab a pic when I have the chance.

Let’s get Anafrontal This is really close to a redeveloped anafront You see the northern side of the front pushing farther E, while the energy at the base of the trough is trying to redevelop. Whats a winter without an Anafront? .

Models have a colder pattern by the 12th.

That northern fringe actually stretched as far south as Baltimore. Jan 2019 fringe hurt, lol It was nice scenery with 4.9" but we definitely missed the bulk of it

Models have a colder pattern by the 12th.

Ive been thinking something similar to 2022-2023i,mayve more or less the wave lenghts dont match up,but it was a cold Dec Christmas 2022,and much AN into J/F,i dont see that being a bad analog year,least right now unless something changes

Already changing, lol

*pretend shocked face*

Give it a few days it will change lol

My advisor in school way back when did his dissertation on the 2m temp impacts of the moon. +0.3°F on a full moon at orbital perigee on a cloudless night was the average.

Lol GFS at the bottom ... Figured that lol

Mid December and we're talking thousands of lights looped archways for 200 feet on a driveway

I think it's the mjo in the null phase with no true coherent signal imo. Its an interesting pattern with an east based niña and pdo weakening. Getting close to waiving the white flag on winter already unfortunately. Not sure what's going on other than speculation

January already looks like a much better month down here - seasonal snow levels and multiple systems coming through later in the week. My ACE to La Nina thing implied ~26 days in Nov-Feb would be 5F or colder than daily averages even after the late hurricane season activity. We've had 0. So either its completely wrong, or super back loaded. Right now we have a high of 41F forecast at the end of the week, which is 6-7F below avg, and a cold low is likely too. For all La Ninas since 1950, it's almost never out by more than 20% either way. Even getting to 20 cold days by Feb 28 would mean half of remaining Jan-Feb days will be pretty cold - very different from our +10F Dec and warm Nov. Analogs in the 6-10 day for CPC include 2018-19 and 2022-23 which are two years I expect to be become much better matches as the pattern progresses. There was quite a bit of activity by Kamchatka (Lows) in mid-late December, which coincides with stormier/cooler weather in the SW at 17-21 day leads. So we're on schedule in that week two January period.

Still a NINA anyways,tho since Dec the subsurface has been pushing further east since early Dec east of the IDL

Thanks for the update PF – and well put with regard to explaining what’s out there. As you can see in my Bolton report from my post above, our experience was very much the same yesterday, but we didn’t even go near any high-angle terrain because I knew it just wasn’t really worth it. The base is clearly there, and there’s plenty of terrain available, but we’re going to need a solid resurfacing to get back to the generally excellent conditions we’ve seen over the past several weeks. That will require a solid large storm cycle, or a good number of bread and butter systems based on the subsurfaces I’ve encountered. We’ll need a system or two with some meat in them. There are some storms out there in the models, but it doesn’t look like a real slam dunk bread and butter pattern for the next couple of weeks as far as I can see, so it might be a little while before the mountains get back to pleasant surfaces. I’m OK with a bit of a slow down in conditions though – looking at my records I see that I’ve had almost 30 ski outings so far this season, and that’s a lot to pack into a couple of months with everything else going on in life. That’s well ahead of my typical November/December pace, since the seasons don’t always take off quite this fast with such prodigious snowpack. It’s easy to get out during the holiday period but packing it during the fall takes a lot of planning. We’ll roll with whatever Mother Nature decides to give us though, and having that fantastic snowpack in place means that conditions should be good to go as soon as that liquid equivalent comes along.

Pictures from out in WV today. Could really see the rime icing at higher altitudes, was a whole different microclimate then even 20 miles eastward over the ridge.

We might be setting a record for fewest digital inches in southeast history this year. It’s so bad we can’t even pop random CMC fantasy snows