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Lol right…Cuz it’s stupid.

Not sure how we have epic meltdown’s in a 1-3” region wide event.

Wouldn’t that be rain for Jerry on that depiction?

even in NYC immediate metro ?

So be it then. I’d be fine with that.

The snow will not be wet, temps in mid to upper 20s for most of accumulating snow time

Yup. I posted that hours ago. This may be a very nice little snow event.

There’s Jerry’s icer

I was just thinking about how fun it would be to have no power after Christmas.

Why is South Dakota highlighted?

remember - this is forecasted to be a wet snow similar to the beginning of the last event and even a couple of inches will stick to everything = power lines - trees - etc etc so it will look more more threatening then it might end up to be

@Damage In Tolland

Yes

Don’t worry. A few in here will call your post fake news.

These are two of the posts I wanted to bring over that sparked this conversation.

Tomorrow will be a bit cooler with temperatures returning to the upper 30s. A weak system will bring some light snow or snow showers to the region on Tuesday. There is a chance that New York City could pick up a coating but a measurable snowfall is not a guaranteed outcome for the City. A 1"-2" snowfall is possible in the distant northern and western suburbs where it will be colder. The temperature will likely remain above freezing throughout the day on Tuesday. In New York City, only 25.6% of storms have seen measurable snowfall with a daily low of 33° or above with just 9.2% seeing 1" or more snowfall. Almost three-quarters (74.4%) of such events have seen only a trace of snowfall. No exceptionally cold or warm weather appears likely for the first week of astronomical winter. The closing week of December could experience periodic warmer and cooler days. The probability that December 2025 will have a maximum monthly temperature below 60° has increased further. The last time that happened was in 2019 when the monthly high was 58°. If 2025 has a monthly high below 60°, that would be only the fifth such occurrence since 2000 (2003, 2004, 2005, and 2019 are the cases since 2000). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +13.96 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.100 today. The PNA was -1.604. That is the lowest winter value since January 8, 2023 when the PNA stood at -1.618. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.6° (4.5° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.8° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

If that happens the meltdowns are going to be epic...lol

The 3K (hi res) NAM looks nothing like the regular NAM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025122118&fh=60&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sn10_acc-imp&m=nam4km New NWS Upton update: Snow map: https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter Disco: SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: * Increasing likelihood of a light snowfall late Monday night into Tuesday as a warm front lifts through the region. The snow changes to rain along the coast Tuesday morning, and potentially for most inland areas by early afternoon. * Total accumulations of up to an inch for the NYC metro, Long Island, and coastal CT, and 1 to 2 inches for interior areas. * Travel impacts to the Tuesday AM commute likely, with icy conditions possible on colder, untreated surfaces. Cold high pressure overhead on Monday, with dry conditions prevailing through the day. Mid level shortwave traverses east, sending a warm front toward the region into Monday night into Tuesday. Primary low remains well to the north before attempting to redevelop offshore along the front later Tuesday as the system exits. Clouds increase Monday evening as the warm front approaches, and still on track for a light snowfall late Monday night into Tuesday morning as the front lifts through the region. A snow band develops and moves in from the west generally after midnight, if not closer to daybreak, based on latest hi-res guidance. The precip will have to overcome dry air initially in the low levels, with surface dew pts likely in the teens to start. Thermal profile in general looks marginal along the coast, where temperatures in the mid 30s should wet bulb down to around freezing or so. Increasing SW flow at the surface will begin warming the BL and force a transition to rain/snow by mid morning along the coast, before gradually becoming light rain by late morning. This transition should work its way inland through southern CT, but may struggle to fully changeover into the Lower Hudson Valley before precipitation shuts off here. Additional precip may develop into early afternoon, especially eastern and coastal areas, as low pressure attempts to develop and deepen offshore as the system pulls away, but any light rain that remains tapers by the early evening. QPF overall will be light, largely near or under a quarter inch, which will limit any potential snowfall. Forecast amounts have not changed significantly from the previous forecast, with up to an inch along the coast, and 1 to 2 inches moving inland north of interstates 80 and 95, with highest amounts in the elevated areas of the interior LoHud Valley, interior SW Connecticut, and NE NJ. Certainly plausible many coastal locales see little if any accumulation, or just a light coating. Will depend how much the dry air limits initial precip with the WAA band. Given the timing, travel impacts for Tuesday`s morning commute appear likely, particularly on any colder, untreated surfaces where snow occurs. Temperatures climb above freezing by afternoon as precip begins to taper, even inland. High pressure begins building towards the area from the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday night as the exiting low deepens as it tracks further offshore. The tightening gradient should increase the NW flow in response, and keep most areas in the 30s overnight into Wed AM.

The period around NYE could end up cold and dry, but at least it looks cold, and there has been pretty persistent indications on guidance that there could be a storm during this timeframe. H5 looks favorable. Lets just wait and see.

I'm really really getting sick of this wind every single dam day.

Maybe not. I was looking more from an eastern United States perspective where many areas are warming by as 8-11F per century in December since 1970, but it looks like it's more 2-4F per century in the Pacific northwest.

Perhaps if they spent more time outdoors they wouldn't feel cold so easily..lol

I'll take my 2.9, if it does happen, and rejoice in my two white Christmas in a row.

Lets give this a shot I am not sure if this will be able to be downloaded and opened. In the Excel sheet I created a decade by decade side by side of RONI and ONI from CPC and charted them out to get an idea of how things sort of coincided with each other (RONI, ONI). These are trimonthly readings dating back from 1950 to present, I'll let the data speak for itself but please excuse the X-axis in the charts. The numbers are just place filler for the data to the left and it would have been rather tedious and clogged up to have date and trimonthly with the charts. RONI vs. ONI.xlsx

Yep way too early to write off the rest of December, never mind Jan and Feb