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I’d go 25-40 mph inland at the moment. If this thing wraps more over the next couple days…then we up the ante. Stay conservative for time being.

This is where you have to wonder whether the Euro's parameterization scheme just remains far superior to the GFS. I mean compare H5 of the Euro to the GFS from the 0z run at initialization. Now one could argue it's "noise" or subtle differences but IMO those differences for an initialization are rather large. I would also re-suggest the argument of the lack of upper-air observations within the region the s/w is traversing but the counter-argument to that would be - why is that not impacting the Euro...perhaps an answer to that would be...the euro is just more superior with initializing processes haha. Anyways, this post comes across as Euro is right and GFS is wrong - obviously we don't know that but lets say the Euro ends up scoring the scoop on this and blows the GFS away...may as well just put the GFS away.

We need to create a bet on Kashi for this.

Regardless of the inadequacies of insurance policy, Sandy transitioned prior to landfall, and this was even confirmed in post-analysis. The mets at the NHC aren't going to get involved in politics, and they do not undermine their scientific work to the benefit of the private sector despite any conspiracies to the contrary.

did you expect yesterday to be partly sunny and mild a couple days out ? Saturday is still 4 days away - that HP in southeast Canada will control where the storm goes and I don't see it weakening to let the offshore storm to backup towards the coast

.4” overnight/this morning 5.5” for September

That's not even the GooFuS AI. I trust the baseline model GFS like I trust my dog not to eat a ribeye sitting in front of it for 5 minutes.

clearing as HP is moving in -

06z EURO holds serve. Retrograde around Riverhead and takes the LIE to NYC. Every weather model has the storm retrograding... it's just where. The less accurate models have it OTS and then hitting Nova Scotia, the GFS has it doing a circle around Boston and the Euro takes it on the Grand Central to NYC.

SSTs are 61-63 offshore. Already cooling.

Zero chance of being "clear."

There's some sensitivity to deterministic solutions coming from the amount of positive vorticity ( how much?) getting pulled out of the Caribbean and injected between 42 and 90+ hours or so. This window of interaction is being slightly differently handled in the Euro vs GFS. The Euro is sweaty love-making. The GFS isn't sure what its feelings are ..heh Recent Euro runs are quite proficient/bullish with the result, because it is massively infusing this junk/failed zygote tropical entity into the agglomeration of weak S/W aspect that is wobbling through that lat/lon of the MA by the end of that time range. This transition of annotated charts over the course shows what happens when even weak N stream gets injected with a pithy diabatic heat source... The GFS is occasionally not as proficient with/in the integrating idea. The Euro has been rather persistent in forecasting a proficient phase at a range when modeling et al typically has higher average error when handling delicate matters. I took a look at the ensemble means of both ... it appears the idea of vestigial tropical infusion and subsequent unusual feedback due to that source is what I was personally missing yesterday in my analysis at that time. That does not mean it will happen like the Euro, per se... the 00z GGEM was less, as was the 06 GFS... We'll pick and choose ( ha, I can imagine which this particular group will pick!). But there's enough support from the orbit of the ens means of both camps to suggest a Euro idea isn't impossible. It is, however, one of the stronger members out of the whole EPS cluster, whereas the GFS is in the apparent interquartile mean of its own group. This is why suggest the scenario is a bit touchy. Smaller percentages less of the lower latitude diabatic source-inclusion into the holistic set up... will probably manifest something more like the a flatter/weaker less entertaining surface result. For now ..I'm willing to go less than the Euro's bigger dawg with this thing, but give it a nod should we get into a better deterministic range and the other models start getting more proficient/synergistic like that.

Thanks, Ray. Indeed, that 9/21/26 graph has the only significant pocket of -AAM centered at our latitudes as you noted. However, I assume you realize that these lat. based graphs are quite fluid, and thus it could look quite different at our latitudes within just a few days for all anyone knows. Also, the extremely + tropical latitudes have little choice but to drop back at least some. I’ll try to follow these daily from this point on. Here’s the brand new update for 0Z on 9/22/26: note that the -AAM pocket at our latitudes is still there but not as negative. Also, although 52N-61N has dropped, 63N to 90N is significantly more positive vs yesterday with a peak of +2 SDs at 77N vs +1.3 yesterday: Compare to yesterday’s: The corresponding global mean for 9/22/26 is as expected per prior days’ CFSv2 progs on its last legs of the extreme level of +4+:

You're in a good spot again today don't blow it

I posted this one another forum. @CoastalWx in awe of the meteorological and social science analyses? ---------- For several days now, the global models have been indicating an atypically strong non-tropical low for September developing off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic/New England coasts by this weekend. High winds, coastal flooding, and excessive rains are becoming more likely, especially in southern New England. Some models, such as the ECMWF and UKMET, are showing a strong warm seclusion evolving when the low slows down and stalls for a time not far S of New England. I attached the 850, 700, and 500 heights/temp valid 09z September 27 from the 22/00z ECMWF that clearly shows the warm seclusion. SSTs S of New England are running anywhere between 2-4 C above average and are 22-25 C in the region where the low is forecast to slow/stall, more than enough for subtropical development, and with such SSTs we have seen full tropical transition before. Now I know this sounds like I am getting ahead of myself here, but one has to proactively think in the abstract and outside the box here, especially when it comes to atypical/outlier events forecast and their impacts. I know of no case where a strong non-tropical low transitioned to subtropical or tropical in this area of the Atlantic so close to the Mid-Atlantic or New England coasts. There was an intense non-tropical low that impacted this region in October 2021 that eventually became TS Wanda, but not until far out of sea in the central Atlantic. The conundrum I see is that if such a transition occurs, it may be while significant non-tropical land impacts from wind/rain/coastal flooding are ongoing. So that implies non-tropical wind warnings would have to be switched to tropical wind warnings. This presents a problem in messaging, among other things. We have policy/procedures in place when a tropical system transitions to PT/ET -- the capability to continue pre-existing tropical wind warnings, but what about when you have an ET low going to subtropical/tropical? There is no sensible weather difference between gale/storm warnings and tropical storm warnings, but a significant amount of the public does not realize or understand that. Going from an unnamed system to a named system? Well, I don't have to say how the media (social and otherwise) reacts when a subtropical/tropical system is named. But the meteorology operationally just can't be ignored either. A system is what it is. This is further complicated by the fact that days before non-tropical low develops, a strong pressure gradient from high pressure over southeastern Canada will result in gale force E and NE winds as early as late today over the marine zone waters off the Mid-Atlantic and New England coast. In my opinion, the above is a non-trivial from a logistical and social point-of-view if such a non-tropical to ST/T transition occur in said region. A similar modern day event that did not fit or work within any current policies/produces at the time occurred with Hurricane Sandy in October 2012, which was also this very same region. The ante this time is not forecast to be on the level of Sandy, but nevertheless is significant.

Can I selfishly root for this even though I'd usually love to see the Euro and AI's win? Daughter has her first out of state softball tournament in Connecticut this weekend.

Seems like 45-60 mph gusts inland and 50-70 mph coasts right ?

Doesn’t this distinction between tropical and non tropical damage become an insurance deductible issue for coastal homeowners? I remember that there were some people who thought that the so called transition from tropical to non tropical by Sandy just prior to landfall in Brigantine NJ was more insurance/ politics related than science related. .

But that’s a pretty low bar…no?

You forget how we are at peak SSTs for the season, and they are running 2-4 C above avg S not that far S of the region, so better mixing down of 925 winds likely.

0.9 so far and spread out over hours. This was needed! It's been so dry here that dust kicked up just from walking on the yard.

Yes, but Winds will most likely disappoint inland as usual…except of course along the immediate coast. But At least we have something to track.

One thing to keep in mind with this potential system too is it being warm core and how long it maintains its warm core

The most epic of epic of all Sep nor'easters! Weenies rejoice!

1.42" yesterday and .72" since midnight. Just what the doctor ordered.