All Activity

We haven't had a single +PDO month yet this decade, in the 2020s. Maybe it will happen with El Nino but I don't know that it will deviate very far from weak.

wishing for 1-2" 2 weeks out... something more applicable to Phoenix AZ

I think over 500+ years of data there would be no "la nina snap back" in the mean. Something is causing it for the last 100 years though. It would be interesting to know what it is. I don't think it's heat release or anything like that. People describe the transition that has happened, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's because of the first part.

More signs of spring here - peepers, loads of wood frogs, pulled off tick #1. It chose to attach right over my sternum so easily detected. Dumped a medium white ash, 11" diam., 50+ feet, for the May mank. That's undoubtedly where the horrible little arthropod was hiding. Temp got near 70 with enough TD to bring some sweat from cutting/splitting.

Got to 84F here (83.7) Congrats!! car thermo hit 90F driving near KFIT

Fucked

Was over 80 again but srly gales now and 77.

Only 2 weeks away

Natural Gas is at the lowest price since 2024, and NG/Crude Oil and NG/Gasoline spread is near record lows. That's a warm sign (or +NAO favored) for next winter.

87/57

That's a pretty impressive hail core on this cell.

Glued to every model cycle from here on out, we can reel this fantasy range rainstorm in

Battle of PA in the first round, Montreal/Tampa, Dallas/Minnesota too. It's going to be a fun playoffs.

Made it up to 84 currently 74

2015 and 2023 didn't really have that swing. We got borderline cold neutrals/weak la ninas out of those. The 1972-73, 1986-88, 1997-98, and 2009-10 events had the big swing going immediately from strong el nino -> strong la nina. The other way, it doesn't go strong la nina -> strong el nino right away. It seems at least one year is needed in between to make the transition. The closest is 1955-56 strong la nina -> 1957-58 strong el nino and 2007-08 strong la nina -> 2009-10 strong el nino (and that one of course was a quick transition back to strong la nina in 2010-11).

I’ve dented a cup and lipped out a couple times. Haven’t scared the hole in a couple years though.

What does it take these days to get a Moderate risk? Doesn't make sense given the watch probabilities?

Ambrose jet starting to kick in. JFK down to 71 gusting to 26 out of the south. Should continue to increase. .

Trying to resist the urge to turn on the ac

Hi all (mods, if you need to move this to marketplace, I understand. I was just hoping it wouldn't be buried there) I am looking for input from mets and serious hobbyists about the tools they use to share their analysis and forecasts outside of here (blogs, personal sites, social media, newsletters, or anywhere else). --> TL;DR: I am building a weather platform / app and want to onboard early adopters interested in expanding their reach. I put together a short survey to make sure I'm building the right tools. What I'm building: A weather app and publishing platform with two goals: For the public: highly personalized, hype-free weather guidance with real medium-range risk information. The target is people who need clearer guidance to make real decisions about their property, their businesses, their week. For forecasters: a dedicated place to publish analysis that reaches a broader audience, with tools built specifically for weather content — mapping, accuracy tracking, subscriber relationships — instead of fighting general-purpose blog tools and social media algorithms. I believe the best weather analysis is being produced by independent forecasters, and that most of it never reaches the people who would benefit from it. The platforms that do reach general audiences reward sensationalism over substance. I am trying to build something better. What I would love to have from you: A 3-minute survey about your current tools, what's working, what's not, and which features would make a difference: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSe39_X8KXighPxN8Ln9RnRv0-saecn_hcylihb_aaCVGokkEQ/viewform?usp=header If you're interested in early access and helping to test out the tools, there's an optional section at the end to leave your info. I'll share results back here. Thanks! Jeff

Nice outside. Too warm inside. A/C turned on for first time this season on second floor. With sun pouring in the temperature up there was 78 degrees. No thanks. Still cool on the main floor 73 degrees. A very comfortable 68 degrees down in the Man Cave. Pollen season underway with green dust building up on everything. Another reason to keep the windows closed. Beautiful outside though. Low humidity, a nice breeze and temperature 84 down from a high 85. Will be watering the grass seed again this evening. Could use some rain.

Seabreeze through here. Kicked wind up. Cooled temps off a tiny bit.

It looks like it's about to rotate a bunch.

NAM had Islip at 71. It hit 78. It stinks

WB 12Z EPS...hopefully the wetter and cooler forecast for late April will verify!