All Activity

RGEM too-although more localized.

Cloudy morning. Suppose to be sunny today with stms tonight. Heat adv out. DLH is under Heat warning. Yesterday was 80 with a 70 dew. Muggy, but comfortable. We'll see if it warms more today. Point has 82.

...while methuen ends up .25.....

1.04'' this morning. Up to 12.34'' for the month.

Just a suggestion if you guys make future snow maps closer to winter. It usually helps if you give a rough % of average to go in line with your thinking. I knew what raindance was getting at with the snow map (admittedly just a preliminary joke map rough idea) but it always looks funny when you see something like "snowy" in Atlanta and "not snowy" in Marquette.

do you want to fuck her like every other climate change denier

I'd usually agree with you. But as we now move into CAM range, recognizing that the U.S. CAMs all have some influence of the GFS, the solutions seem to be favoring the GFS more. The idea of a deep sfc low over the St Lawrence Valley isn't dead in the Euro, but even its AI version likes a secondary low in the Mid-Atlantic. Verbatim, some pretty strong forcing rolls through during the morning and midday hours, which screams flash flooding more than severe. That said, 1) a surface low will be nearby, so you always need to watch for a tornado threat, especially if we can heat up before the forcing arrives 2) there is time to change some of the synoptic details

If I had a snowfall map right now, it would look like raindance's.

I could not agree with raindance more....my QBO composite is a bit different, but he just echoed that premise of my write up last night with absolute surgical precision in just a far more condensed manner. Here an excerpt from my work: Key Factors to Potentially Fuel More Active Second Half than Currently Forecast The preliminary Eastern Mass Weather polar composite is littered with seasons that underwent a notable transition from a benign December-January period to a rather frenzied February and/or March, as El Niño peaks and undergoes a subtle change in orientation. It was mentioned that this is a signal that is emergent among some seasonal guidance. It was postulated that these forecasts are overstated and exaggerated, and are likely to be transient in nature. However, it was also asserted that the forecast unprecedented intensity of El Niño should be of sufficient magnitude to at long last shift the western Pacific warm pool, which has been a fixture for a over a decade, further to the east. The question is whether it simply shifts to the dateline and acts as a Modoki, or even further east, which would heighten the odds of a very mild outcome, per the intense/east-based El Niño composites. Another option is for it to not move enough, which may produce an outcome similar to the MC-oriented 2023-2024 season, which is viewed was the least likely outcome. At the very least, the European seasonal guidance is supporting the current forecast for a mid season transition to greater volatility, but it looks to be even more exaggerated given it's assessment of the January polar domain. Perhaps the eruption of Mount Agung was not justification for the outright dismissal of the 1963-1964 QBO analog from the polar composite, however, there is plenty of time to assess that decision as subsequent trends are modeled and future data is digested.

Enhanced for wi

I’m not yet convinced we’ve turned the corner on the long term drought and that giga-Nino is kicking in precip-wise…but the evidence is building. I’ll have to see what august looks like. I’m feeling pretty sure that by mid/late September we’ll have turned the corner for good. At least until our next multi year Nina which starts next fall lol

Our lifetimes at least.

Interesting

It’s not on the books but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen.

Lol the nam went berserk. 6 to 10" of rain

One last great weather day before we turned unsettled and wet for a good part of the upcoming work week. Hopefully, most of us see some rain as many spots, especially across Northern Chester County missed the rains last week. Below normal temperatures look to continue all week but with increasing humidity with the rain. The sun looks to it will return by Friday. Note: below on the climate records there is an errant snow report in the data set that is being corrected.

One last great weather day before we turned unsettled and wet for a good part of the upcoming work week. Hopefully, most of us see some rain as many spots, especially across Northern Chester County missed the rains last week. Below normal temperatures look to continue all week but with increasing humidity with the rain. The sun looks to it will return by Friday. Note: below on the climate records there is an errant snow report in the data set that is being corrected.

Another .5 this morning. Right at 5 since Wednesday afternoon.

1.34 overnight... This week we have had over 4 inches and over 8 on the month

History strongly supports a +PDO by no later than Nov as 94% of the 36 mod+ Ninos since the 1850s had a +PDO in Nov or earlier as only 2 didn’t have a NOAA +PDO by Nov: 1994/5 & 2023/4.

Will you be doing the Tangier eclipse next year?

The shading represents the probability of AN temps, not the intensity of the anomaly.

Cleetus snow is a person. Global warming is taking the day off. Go outside and touch grass. Greta won’t say anytning.

WPC already going slight risk D3/4 with talk of upgrading to moderate in the discussion Will be interesting to see CAMs as we get into range. Potential is there for prolific totals.