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We can use that Brillo pad beard of his to scrape the ice off the windshield in the mornings…

nahhh we all should be cautiously optimistic moving through next week and the following week

@weatherwizI'm not sure why I get the weenie because you make it through grad school not knowing what a few means.

Wxrisk.com NEAR HALF POINT OF METEOROLOGICAL WINTER and more about JAN 15-16 NON EVENT One of the reasons why I change the avatar, especially during the winter months is to give you an idea on what I think of the overall worker pattern and of course snow chances for the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. I have been reading a few comments that some people thought I had committed to the January 15 16 winter storm threat scenario or outcome. When I issue the SNOWDOG HOLMES it simply means that I think there's a real possibility of something that's happening but it's just a possibility and not a forecast. I am not sure if this is a failure on my part to communicate or the fact that some people just really fooking stupid. Maybe some people don't enjoy all the scientific meteorological discussion and just want the simple forecast. There is nothing wrong with that but that's not what I knew here. In the next weather video on Wednesday I will go into this more detail but experienced meteorologists that do operational weather forecast -- that is to say daily weather forecasting and weekly forecasting -- know that there is this peculiar BARRIER er or breakpoint that exists between the extended models and the shorter range models. That BARRIER is somewhere around 60 to 84 hours-- 2.5 to 3.5 days. I cannot tell you of the number of times I have seen the weather models forecast a severe weather outbreak or snowstorm or hurricane threat at 7 or 8 days out and consistently show that kind of scenario only to see it suddenly changed dramatically at 72 hours. Why does that happen ? As good as the super Advanced satellites are there is still a large “data void” of high quality reliable data covering the Pacific basin. If we keep in mind that all weather is connected and for every action, there is an opposite and equal reaction then it is easier to understand why this barrier in the forecast process is actually there. For example if the weather models are showing a big storm by the Aleutian Islands at Day 5 that the weather model jumps on to develop an Arctic air mass outbreak across the eastern US at day 8, that can suddenly look very different once we reach 72 hrs. Weather systems in the Eastern Pacific and the west coast of North America usually take three or four days to travel across the continent. The data becomes much more solid and refined and as a result the computer models no longer have to “guess” what the pattern is looking like in the Pacific Ocean. On the other hand there have been some famous hurricanes and East Coast snow storms where the global models at 6, Day 7 or Day 8 days that got the forecast almost exactly right without any variation or sudden changes. The January 2016 blizzard is one example of that. the January 2014 East Coast snowstorm. The 3 winter storms that hit the Mid-Atlantic in late January early February of 2010. The primary reason why those events were accurately predicted by the extended weather models is because the MJO -- the Madden Julian Oscillation -was in the phase that supports that kind of winter pattern. In other words the MJO and the computer models were aligned perfectly. With this event for January 15 16 they are NOT aligned at all which is one of the reasons why I was skeptical

Stein says … Stein https://x.com/growingwisdom/status/2011066399406600515?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Definitions of a couple, few, and several…four years of crap winters are getting to us.

I think the discussion between several and few pretty much sums up the rest of January....yikes

No need to gather virtually…you just go in person and enjoy the winter time activities. Good stuff.

Bottomed out at 28.6 (NWS forecast low 30) here and the farm got down to an impressive 23.1 (NWS forecast low 28)

Where did these young kids go to school? Everybody when we were growing up knew that a couple is 2, not 3. And several was 3 or 4. WTF?

Yes, "a few" generally means more than two but not many, often interpreted as 3-5, so it is more than two, but its exact number is flexible and context-dependent, though "a couple" is often used specifically for two. While some strictly define "a few" as three, it's usually understood as a small quantity greater than a pair. Key Distinctions

No. Dictionary Definitions from Oxford Languages · Learn more sev·er·al /ˈsev(ə)rəl/ determiner · pronoun more than two but not many. "the author of several books" Similar: some a number of

We should start a "county thread".....where they can virtually gather and complete the circle of prostate massage while viewing the pictures.

several (I) usually refers to more than 5. Couple/few I always thought were about the same in terms of a numerical reference

6z euro was interesting for Sunday

Lmaoo yeah cause that's gonna happen

I wish everyone could experience the feeling of extreme glee I get when snowmobile pics are posted.

at least the positivity pals have their frigid dry cold and ice fishing

No, a few is great than 2, just like "several" is greater than 3.....2 is a "couple".

To all the steeler fans who kept saying the Steelers are 23-0 on Monday nights!!.... Now your 23-1! Lol

A month has 4 weeks. A few is 2...so few = 2 weeks

It's been a Nina STJ.. too bad because we are having our 2nd below average temp Winter in a row. Last -PDO decadal cycle was also cold and dry.

You’ll get nothing and like it. Ma nature boring out your rear end…and putting you on ice as a bonus. Becoming rather comical actually.

Real nice -AO showing up at the end of 6z GFS ensembles Correlation with temps (default is positive so -ao is opposite)

384 hour/16 day Op run…can we get any more ridiculous…that deserves a 10 Bunner.