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  2. Looks like the hooks reformed over GMU. Saw two bolts from the blue hit right over there
  3. I hear constant rumbling from that storm to my NW here in south Alexandria
  4. Storm west of Doylestown is starting to rotate too. That’s probably going to become warned very shortly.
  5. Yes, but normal waxing and waxing decadal cycles of tornado activity occur by default in the large picture, For instance, there was a distinct minimum in annual totals inn the second half of the 1980s, and another in the mid 2010s. Also, all states are not created equal for symmetric tornado count changes Population change/distribution and visibility are two factors. Also, seasonal trends. For instance, there appears to be a shift for more tornadoes in the cool season w/ a decrease in the warm season. This would tend to make tornado spotting and reporting under-reported in the cool season b/c of less daylight. Hence, uniform extrapolation over all areas/states can not be applies here. There is still and increase net-net of course.
  6. It’s combined with the cell that popped up over 66 (I was driving west to get the culpeper cell) and it was nasty. Some of the heaviest rainfall you can get. The gust front is hitting me from the cell complex. I’m at the Herndon metro garage if anyone is interested in where my reports are from. They have a 6 story roof.
  7. This morning Mount Holly actually had 1-2" in the forecast here for tonight, with a quarter to a half inch today. I knew that forecast was a bust. Now a half to three quarters tonight, and pretty much nothing this afternoon/early evening. See what it gives. There's always the delayed but not denied thing for tomorrow if tonight underwhelms with another piece of energy slowing the front. I'm sure it will all work out.
  8. In that cell between Culpepper and Warrenton, getting some legit straight line wind
  9. Not sure why folks were wishing for this. To each his own I guess.
  10. just as predicted the sun is shining through here in Northern Middlesex County NJ setting the stage for the next round of Heavy Rain/Storms racing this way from PA This group of storms features a Tornado TOR from KPHI
  11. So all states would be skewed in the same manner pretty much right? How would that data be invalid for hypothesizing about a movement east of tornado Alley?
  12. Healthy +ENSO coupled mid-latitude cell showing up in the central pacific on the GEFS. W pac forcing starting to diminish.
  13. It's coming down in buckets in Midtown.
  14. .03". Next round moving in from PA...
  15. whoa that cell near Manassas sure got itself together in a hurry... could be heading for DC?
  16. Absolutely pouring at times here in Kearny. Skies were black as might earlier.
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