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ERA5 is not a prognosis, it’s a reanalysis of the daily mean averaged out over several decades (i think it starts 1940 but someone can correct me here). The black is the actual forecast ensemble mean. So it’s currently forecast to go below the historical mean.

Posted by Brad P a little while Ago. .

It's a silly semantic thing. If the charts look like a low or 41, yet it bottoms 31 at climo holes and the like, those results are disassociated local feedbacks that don't represent the qualitative state of the whole. ... interpreted as "it's not 'posed to be that cold" Radiational cooling is modified by local feedback phenomenon. But the nature of what that does/is, it is disassociated from the larger expectation - the latter being some combination/weighted seasonality vs synoptics. A product that is evinced by the fact that here we are at 11am and it's 57 unilaterally even where it was 31 - an example. Objective reality: it is both 31 and cold, while being in a 41 suggested holistic synoptic state. Both are true. Nothing else. There is no "fake cold" Nothing novel about this ...it's just the shenanigans of public noise - shimmering with intelligence as it does

Doing a bit of math here... Last month was at -5.5", converting that new map to inches and adding... Well, shit, -1.5" Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

low grade remnant showers looking increasingly likely for some of us

Yeah me and a buddy were going to that game and watched the snow instead from our balcony . About 1.5” in Beltsville with huge amounts out in Skyline

Car batteries know that it's real, but only in the lower levels - go up 100 yards and the temp would be significantly higher. When we lived on sloping ground at 970' asl in the back settlement of Fort Kent, after calm clear overnights we'd see the smoke layer above the sawmill cone burner across the St. John and would know that it was 10°+ colder than our place at the riverside office. It's a similar "fake" when growing season transpiration brings tall TDs - in each case the extreme conditions aren't the same as the overall airmass. Temp had dropped into the upper 30s by 10 PM last night, so I expected mid-upper 20s. Maybe the wind returned, as our low was 33.

it's a badge of honor thing to some to see how late they can go without flipping the heat on. Kinda weird but whatever floats your boat

Any comments about what this graph implies? Why is prog of ERA5 avg (blue) so much higher than prog of ECMWF mean (black)? Isn’t ERA5 produced by ECMWF? Is ERA5 its own projection model? Any explanation would be appreciated.

We are going to be very good this winter. 2002-03 keeps showing up. That means the general pattern more than one huge storm but such storm is not discounted I also look at first half of October as to how far off NWS and others are in predicting below average temps in the 5+ day prior to. This cool shot prediction had DC in upper 50’s for highs initially which verified more like 63-64 so about 5/6 degrees off .

it's amazing how the universe finds a way to get to entropy. like ...keep using oil, the temp rises to the point where you don't need to use any oil. problem solved. lol

RONI is not meant to be used for the absolute intensity of this event. It’s more about gradients and storm tracks. With something this historic, it’s the absolute temperatures and water vapor increase that matter which is better reflected by ONI.

Well since I saw AvDave mention February, thought I’d start the thread lol. Here’s hoping I can bust droughts too .

Well I see it’s that time again…. .

What’s everyone’s gamble on timing? App kicks off homecoming at 1 pm. Selfishly hoping we get a rain free game for our passing attack lol.

Weirdly, I think everyone is getting smoked. I may be 100% wrong, but with that flow, we’ll be getting not only the southerly fetch from the gulf, but the Atlantic will get tapped into as the storm gains latitude. There’s certainly going to be max’s to the west and east of the piedmont but this is your classic, squeezing every last drop out of the clouds type of setup for the Carolinas. Also one of those situations where the moments of blankness on radar are still producing heavy drizzle/light rain.

heh...that region in the NE US looks like the (superstorm 1993 + climate change)/2

I'll never understand how cold could be "fake"

All of the globals and their AI brethren drop an inch of rain ish, or more, on the region sunday into monday. Getting into deterministic range soon though as others have said that doesnt mean much these days lol

No clue. I have a wife and kids and I want them to be comfortable. Maybe it makes people feel tough?

Very good chance of severe weather across the south given the combination of a tropical system interacting with a strong jet and dry air shooting in the backside. Probably a tornado outbreak for the south

Must be tough keeping the MIL in line when she attempts to dabble with the heat

38 glorious degrees for a low.

Yup. This is a hard rule. No getting the oil burner fired up until Nov 1 or after. With that being said, we do have supplemental heat with the new mini split ac unit that was installed a few years ago. Since my wife's elderly mother lives with us, she does turn it on every so often during cooler mornings. It really only heats the area she is in.

A prolific tornado set-up which probably will be a high impact event.