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July 14 2003: At least eleven tornadoes hit Minnesota. Baseball-sized hail is reported at Indus in Koochiching County. 1936: The all-time record high is reported in the Twin Cities, with 108 degrees at the downtown Minneapolis office. 71 people would die in the Twin Cities on this day due to the extreme heat. 1916: Heavy downpours at New Ulm dump over seven inches of rain in seven hours. For Tuesday, July 14, 2026 1936 - Extreme heat prevailed across the central U.S. as severe drought raged from Texas to the Dakotas. Record high temperatures were established in sixteen states that summer, including readings as high as 120 degrees in the Great Plains Region. On this particular date, afternoon highs for 113 stations across the state of Iowa averaged 108.7 degrees. (David Ludlum) 1957 - Hail, with some stones up to an inch in diameter, covered the ground to a depth of three inches ruining crops in the Bath area of New Hampshire. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Severe thunderstorms in Iowa produced eight inches of golf ball size hail near Grafton, IA, completely stripping corn stalks in the area. Hail caused more than a million dollars damage to crops in Worth County and Mitchell County, and another million dollars damage in Ada County and Crawford County. Unseasonably cool weather prevailed in the Great Plains Region. Eight cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Duluth, MN, with a reading of 37 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Severe thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in the Northern Atlantic Coast Region during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms also spawned a rather strong tornado near Westtown, NY, and drenched Agawam, MA, with four inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather from eastern New Mexico to central Nebraska. One hundred soldiers were injured by flying debris and collapsing tents during a thunderstorm near Trinidad, CO. Thunderstorms in Colorado produced wind gusts to 77 mph at La Junta. Early morning thunderstorms produced torrential rains over parts of Louisiana, with 7.50 inches at Carencro, and 5.85 inches at Morgan City. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 2005 - Death Valley had 7 consecutive days (July 14-20) with high temperatures equal to or above 125 degrees. Observances: 14 Tue Bastille Day 14 Tue National Mac and Cheese Day 14 Tue Cow Appreciation Day 14 Tue Pandemonium Day 14 Tue International Non-Binary Peoples Day 14 Tue National Grand Marnier Day 14 Tue National Tape Measure Day 14 Tue Shark Awareness Day 14 Tue National Be Nice to Bugs Day 14 Tue National Break Free From the Big Three Day
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Point now says 97 today with a SW wind again, but then smoke arrives Wed. Just a matter of time for that to happen again.
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I’ve been keeping track. 47 ticks on me and 11 that were lodged in. Mostly deer ticks and the embedded ones were mostly nymphs. Haven’t had a ring rash…just the regular redness with local irritation and itchiness for a few weeks. But the last few weeks have been rough energy wise and now my eyes and head.
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Sea level anomalies vs 1997….wow Sea level heights…this is a monster: -
taking the under
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
LakePaste25 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Not ready to say it will never reverse. Maybe 10 more years of -PDO and I’ll start having those thoughts. The only thing that’s certain is the that the planet will be warmer. When it comes to everything else, weather can always feel like it’s in a permanent state until one day it isn’t anymore. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I am speaking in the present....I agree there is a chance that this one can become a more prominent hemispheric driver, but we aren't there yet. This is all I meant on Sunday on when I Said El Nino still had work to do. -
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
LakePaste25 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I don’t know if this can be claimed with certainty yet. It’s also important not to use too much recency bias when it’s likely going to be the most powerful event on record. I’d be more skeptical if this was like 23-24. Even beyond 15-16 this event is in a league of its own. But, we will also have our own variations of winter forecasts this Fall and we can always look back on them. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I feel like if the PDO doesn't reverse, especially with how big of an el nino we are expected to have, we are pretty much in a permanent -PDO. We haven't had a +PDO winter now since 2015-16, which was more than a decade ago, and is unprecedented. Even in previous predominant -PDO periods, we got a +PDO in there somewhere. Also, if we don't reach 175 ACE this year, it would be sixth straight year that we don't reach the threshold. Here is a list of longest periods with no hyperactive (175+ ACE) seasons: 1. 1962-1994 (33 seasons) 2. 1894-1925 (32 seasons) 3. 1934-1949 (16 seasons) 4. 2006-2016 (11 seasons) 5. 1927-1932 (6 seasons) [2026 would tie this streak, which began in 2021] The thirteen hyperactive (175+ ACE) seasons are: 1893 1926 1933 1950 1955 1961 1995 1998 2003 2004 2005 2017 2020 -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The influence of ENSO, especially warm ENSO, is more geographically restricted now and more largely relegated to the tropics, regardless of it's intensity. Powerful events are more influential....in the tropics. However, the mid latitudes are now more dictated by these marine heat waves and expanding ridges. I get what Adam is saying....this El Nino is a powerhouse, but it's just that it's more the scope of Andrew rather than Katrina. -
Beats the usual smells in that area
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That might also explain why the models have backed off on what was nascent potential for cap busters along the front Wednesday...
