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  2. History says ~Sept 25-30 is the time when it should start to develop, then all the time that follows. Correlation is weakest in Sept, then 2nd weakest in July. Actually June-Sept is like -0.15 H5 correlation max in the NPH region.
  3. Storms in Frederick, nothing around DC. We’re back, baby!
  4. Watching that Frederick/Montgomery cell for me (in Colesville tonight). Might miss me to the north but it does seem to be having a tendency to come south.
  5. 85/55 this aftrn as the wind switched from a Lake breeze to a NW wind. Very nice summer day.
  6. OLR is solidly El Niño. Deepest convective anomalies are forecasted to be around 150-160W. Will need to keep an eye out for a N Pac low as we get into September.
  7. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  8. Gotta be over 0.5” here. Another drencher.
  9. ^+QBO/east-based El Nino/-PDO history says could be quite warm in Dec. That type of H5 over Greenland and Alaska would be a record-breaking warm pattern in the NE in this day and age if it verifies (we haven't actually seen that pattern much in the cold season over the past few years, it's a 01-02 pattern).
  10. Pop up storm from my backyard. It is, however, in the wrong quadrant. Right is north in the photo, so it's moving away from us. Got a few raindrops out of it.
  11. Storm just hit. Rain and the lights keep flickering.
  12. Glad you made it home safely. Seeing photos on social media of streets all around that end of town that are under water.
  13. Just light rain now....almost .75 for the storm. Windiest storm here this year so far.
  14. My point is that if mitchnick is saying the El Nino is not yet effecting the pattern, then you can say that no La Nina has effected the pattern ever.
  15. Yeah I don't know many people that like 95 degrees and humid. Most people complain when it's that hot. I think most summer lovers want 85 degrees with low humidity.
  16. Been finally getting some heavier returns but no gully washers and lots of convection picked up by my lightning detector the past couple hours. Mainly scattered cells. Currently have 3/4"/hr rates and 0.62" in the bucket. Temp 67/dp 66.
  17. Should be a Marine Warning for the Bay west of Cumberland county for a possible waterspout. KDIX 6:36 PM:
  18. The stuff that was coming in from the west really fizzled out. It appears that we're done. It ended up being pretty early activity today.
  19. With all the storms around, north, east, and south, I'm going to somehow end up in a stabilized atmosphere with only a few rain showers. Seen it too many times not to believe it to be true.
  20. This is fewer and farther between so far. That one storm was crazy. Starting to rain here now.
  21. Torrential rain with wind continues. .56 so far.
  22. Do not like that. That storm back in July that had the violent lightning with it is what fried our garage door opener. We have a whole house surge protector on our panel but we think because my daughter was opening the door when the lightning was crazy is what did it.
  23. This storm has some violent lightning associated with it.
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