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look like they were turning north

Wow, you had internet at age 6? Impressive

We turn our eyes to the Goofy Forecasting System

I had AOL in 1989, I’m ancient.

???

Hope you are right. I think the largest storm we had since 2010 was 13 inches in Dec 2020. I know Jan 2016 southern counties had more than that, but for AGC I think 13 was most.

Not to forget there will likely be a band of sleet and graupel between the ZR and the snow. While sleet isn't devastating to infrastructure it is devastating to my feelings when I get stuck under it. Would suck to get 3" of sleet while just up the road gets a foot plus snow. Sleet just eats snow totals right up. My first post of the season, glad to have something fun to track, feels like it's been forever since this type of storm. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

Only East of the Mississippi. Those were record warm winters in the Western US, especially 14-15, but that one was a +PDO winter.

FWIW, the 18z ECMWF and EPS look like they were going to deliver a decent hit after hour 144. The mid-levels support extended precipitation after the end of the run. Probably not huge QPF, but solid especially considering the airmass.

Matches with what I'm seeing!

Well I think I’m chasing this one. But not too far to chase it looks like the models are coming together for middle Atlantic snowstorm. Too much high pressure for us. IMO

Alright GFS is about to start... here's where dreams are made or crushed lol

The GFS has begun running. May the odds be ever in our favor

Down to 6/0 out at the Deep Creek house. 33/13 here at home.

I feel like every big storm that's hit since I got here has had some kind of screw axis. Maryville/the foothills got screwed in January 2024. Chattanooga got screwed in March 2022. Knoxville north got screwed (a little, relative to forecast) by the January 2025 storm while Chattanooga cashed in. Now that I lived here long enough I can see why its so hard to have the whole valley from Bristol down to Chattanooga score from the same storm. I'd take rain over ice though if that warm nose is going to creep up the valley

i'm not seeing the whining; pointing out a rather likely scenario is not whining. i could be wrong. going to bed; covid is kicking my ass.

The coldest snowstorm I think I’ve ever witnessed was 1/3/14 (I believe that was the exact date but I’m not sure). 7-10 in NYC. Blizzard out east and up north. Teens for the entire storm, temps dropped into single digits just as snow stopped. Similar to 1/29/22, and 1/4/18. temps were in teens most of storm. That’s hard to pull off over here. Even most of our bigger storms like 2/1/21 and 1/23/16 were in 20s to low 30s.

Dewpoints in the single digits and teens as well in all of NC

The names people call models in casual discussion is sort of confusing. The CMC is the GEM model, run by the CMC (met center). Hence RGEM is regional GEM. Similarly the ECMWF isn't really the ECMWF, it's the IFS run by the ECMWF AKA the Euro Center for medium range weather forecasting

It wasn't that bad of a run honestly. Well within the possible range of outcomes.

Dude, compuserve was our first internet we had. I felt so poor not having AOL like all my friends.

so far i'm still here

GFS: "Hold my beer"

5-6 inches here; those set ups favor long island and the jersey shore; the bands skip the raritan bay area and head right out across the water to long island; we get the crumbs. seen it many times. people would come to work from the shore and look around and wonder where all the snow was.....

This cold after the storm is legit. Bottom of the driveway glaciers incoming. No matter how much falls.