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Can y’all please take this shit to the correct forum? I’m a staunch climate change believer but even I’m like, please lord.

I can dig 30s at night and then 50s and 60s during the day...preferably 60s but keep this going through November.

Sigh.

Ensembles hinting at wetter pattern 1st week of November. Maybe first signs of the wetter super Nino pattern?

Go check it out under the appropriate thread - thanks again PSU!

The data is now in the appropriate thread - now let the good folks here go back to their autumn obs!! thanks!

September, 2026 data has come in for Yellow Medicine County, Minnesota. With an average temperature of 65.3F, the county (population 9,477) experienced its 12th warmest September on record, but the coldest since 2022.

Nope! The raw September trend for 1895–2025 is +0.13°F per decade, and it is not statistically significant (p ≈ 0.10; 95% range −0.03 to +0.29°F per decade). Series °F/decade 95% range p Raw September, 1895–2025 +0.13 ±0.16 0.10, not significant

the altered data adds 60% more warming than the actual data.....

It’s actually looking possible that we could pull off a rare two consecutive 2026 weekends with no measurable rainfall in late October.

My answer: That’s why I prefer to compare 30 year normals rather than compare absolutes since temps are obviously warming due to GW, which is why I did that in my reply to Chris. Now in terms of 30 year climo based anomalies for super Nino Octs, ‘26 is coming in a bit warmer than the avg anom. at ATL for sure. So, I agree with Chris’ general idea about that.

(Population 9,477)

as per this data, Yellow Medicine County, MN is warming at a rate of between 0.12F and 0.19F per decade.

The widespread warmth across the US is insane. Just shocking

The above data is like most other places sufferring from NCEI altered temperatures which as is usually the case warms the past and chills the current. Below is actual vs altered data for beautiful Yellow Medicine County!! The graph shows 1895–2025: the NCEI adjusted line is in red and the raw station data in blue, each with its trend line. The trend is +0.19°F/decade for NCEI and +0.12°F/decade for raw, so NCEI shows about 60% more warming than the raw data - call me stunned!!

I agree 100%!! IMO, the AO is more important than the NAO. I have identified 9 analog winters since 1950 to 26/27. For Augusta, 78% of strong El Nino winters have above average snowfall. The below average snowfall similar Enso winters were #1 - 72/73 at +2.0 C. with an average +1.2 AO and -.50 NAO and 91/92 at +2.3 with an average +1.10 AO and -.50 NAO. Slightly negative NAO and moderately positive AO is bad news for snow.

Source for this claim or is this another trust me bro argument?

Oh, totally get that.....plenty of reason to think that, and we all have our stances, but it's perhaps more important to look for reasons that your reasoning will NOT work out.

If you have an issue with the climate data on Yellow Medicine County, MN (Population 9,477), please care to refute it in the appropriate thread.

If you got the data from NCEI like below it most certainly is altered adjusted data!

December was the only month that winter with a significant -NAO (-.96), hence the best month of the season.

I wasn't signaling anyone out....general question.

We won't have any MC this season and the forcing still extends into the region SSE of Hawaii...which is where guidance has consistently place the highest precip rates.

Right....intraseasonal variability, which proves my point....it's always going to exist to some extent and there are folks acting as though it will not.

Through October 22 - 2026 is warmer than usual but not close to a record. County mean for Oct 1–22: 58.9°F, from 19 stations. That makes it the 34th-warmest of 139 Oct 1–22 periods that had at least 2 stations reporting. The anomaly composite ranks it lower, 53rd of 139 (+1.0°F against each station’s own long-term mean). The gap is mostly because the network has changed over time, which the composite corrects for, so the naive rank flatters 2026 a little. Compared with recent years, it’s warmer than 2019–2020 and 2022–2025, but behind 2016 (59.3°F), 2017 (62.0°F) and 2021 (62.4°F). The record is out of reach. The warmest Oct 1–22 on record is 1941 at 64.7°F, then 2007 (63.8°F) and 1914 (63.0°F). Getting into the top 10 would take about 61°F, more than 2°F above where we are now.