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Feeling Coc k and loving clubs?

We may have to wait until after the summer solstice later this month for our first official 3 day heat wave reaching 90° or warmer at Newark. The trough looks to take up residence around the area for the next several weeks. A continuation of the spring blocking theme since March 20th with the addition of a strong +PNA.

0.75" of rain last night into the early am hrs. 1.11" for a good start to the month. Avg is 4.23", so a way to go yet, and forecast looks decent for more significant opportunities. For May, ended with 3.88" (3.30" avg) with 2.12" falling on the 22nd. YTD through May is 10.61 (9.66" avg) so doing well there. Last year, starting in May, precip was pretty bleak until later in Sept. Doing better so far this year.

Apparently West Tennessee had some landspouts over the weekend. I have seen few if any pictures on social media, but MEG did address questions.

Looks more and more like we'll escape major heat for a good chunk of June. We're all mentally prepared for a hot July and August each year; so, I'm not too concerned about those months. Yeah September nights get cooler. The lower sun angle also takes off the edge even during the day.

46F for the low and tickling 80F at 11:30am. Fantastic.

COC and golf in June…just love to see and feel it.

So summer did not start early. After a bit of a false start to summer, the pattern has settled back to a late spring temp cycle...nice days and cool nights. I fully expect summer to be hot, but the longer we can delay the heat...the less heat that we get. August and September (prob part of October) is certainly better than mid-May to mid October. The great thing once we get to mid September, at least the nights cool off.

I bought my Callaway Rogue ST's at the W. Lebanon location a few weeks ago.

This is unfortunately not true. It would be nice if that were the case, but ... it's happened twice at equivalency into the British Isles/latitudes in the last several years. The Pacific NW in 2021... The frequency of these occurrence has been rising. And there are papers being published on reviewed-reserved servers that discuss - next time I happen by one I'll be happy to send over the link.

At my club you get to reserve a weekly tee time if you pay your membership in full by March 1. There are people who have had the same tee time for 40 years. And they never cancel.

I get how the math works... That's why I said "equivalency" in that. That was a synergistic R-wave feed back, the likes of which have been occurring with increasing frequency world over, that has struck Mexico and the Marine climate region over to Florida. Those are different phenomenon from the normalized CC footprint. That's what we were getting at before

Basically what I'm saying is the climate warming in those regions is so substantial that standard deviations based on historical climate norms are meaningless, because the current mean is already 1 or more standard deviations above the historical data.

In fact, I would argue it's impossible to replicate that type of behavior at mid or high latitudes. The internal variability is acting in tandem with the overall warming trend, so you're going to produce outliers like February 2017, March 2012, etc. that might be difficult to beat for long periods of time even with continued warming.

Even 3-4 degrees of warming in a continental influenced, mid-latitude is insufficient to cause that, because the internal variablity / standard deviation is so much greater.

I think the explanation is much simpler. The standard deviations [i.e., internal variability] is substantially lower in those locations due to being at low latitude and being surrounded by water. A couple degrees of warming in the Caribbean or Florida is all it takes to get into a new climate regime where EVERY single month is above historical normals and where any given month in a regime favoring warm anomalies is likely to be the warmest on record. We are in that universe.

One had to go by context root on that exchange between Don and myself. It's been above normal ... but we are not over a Standard Deviation distinction like they've been down there. We certainly could have been much more extreme given the pattern, but the pattern foot print has been preventative from bringing that. Equivalent would have been much more excessive, with consistency, to ORD-NYC latitudes.

It will be interesting to see if this month will come in below the normal mean temperature. Two days in and it's a bit below normal, which will likely reverse over the next 3-4 days. However, both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks favor below normal temperatures. So looks like decent odds that it will be below normal on the whole through mid month. June 2023 was the last below normal month officially at KPIT. Some of the other climo stations may have managed a below normal month somewhere in that period.

Dries fast this time of year and the low humidity only speeds it up. Next chance Thursday for rain

But then again, I saw some boomers on Facebook comment that "it didn't feel that warm" to them. So maybe we ought to sort by people's feelings, instead of actual data.

Front wheel... It's not an EV or even hybrid. But the car's tip top at 160K miles. I've put ... maybe 1200 or 1500 in it in routine maintenance, which went as far once as a caliper/break job which was my fault so not discrediting the car for that. Mainly just new tires when needed, and I was buying low grade ones until I smartened up about that. Those say 10,000miles but you really get maybe 5 before the Mass/state inspectors flag you for interior tread wear or some shit. Better off ponying up for the 30k (minimum mileage), and you'll get 4 or 5 years of inspections. So basically what I'm saying is that I've been very happy with my Toyota. It runs smooth, and handles great. There are minor complaints, like some of the touch screen functionality of the console don't work anymore but I don't need that ...it's certainly not worth looking at new car for that. Plus one of the back speakers can't handle base without buzzing. Minor unremarkable inconveniences. That all said, I am interested in looking at Toyota for hybrid on my purchase. The only trick is... I don't like buying new cars. I prefer to purchase them about 30K with good car-fact heritage documented. I'm not sure that's advisable with battery tech though. I'd go full EV but...I think there's a chance society will collapse and charging might become a problem when/if that dystopian projection takes place. heh. ( some truth to that... ).

Yeah the ground has dried out again. I'll be watering today. Hopefully we'll get a decent soaking Wednesday night into Thursday.

Is your Corolla FWD or the AWD? I am curious as I will likely soon be replacing my Prius (I crossed 294000 miles this morning) as am wondering how the AWD is on the Corolla/Prius.

On a similar note, the NWS often posts misleading graphics like this one. It claims that 1998 & 1918 were warmer in the Wheeling thread, and 1998, 1944, and 1919 were warmer in the Morgantown thread. In fact, 2024 is the warmest spring with full data. At Wheeling, 1918 is missing the entire month of March. The mean returned is just the average of April & May. 1998 has data for all three months, but March only has 4 days late in the month which happen to coincide with a 2012-esque heat wave showing a ridiculous 68.3F monthly mean. In this case, utilizing the March data is even more misleading if averaged by month, because the actual monthly mean was undoubtedly 20 or more degrees less than that. So it's artificially tacking on at least nearly 7F to the spring mean [dividing the surplus by 3]. Below, I sorted by daily average to mitigate this to some degree. At Morgantown, 1998 and 1944 are missing data for the entire month of March. The averages reported are based only on April & May. 1919 is missing the entirety of both March & April. The average reported is simply the mean for May. In fact, it's 0.1F BELOW the current normal for May at Morgantown, and 4.4F cooler than May 2024. MGW HLG Undoubtedly all of these years would fall below 2024 with full data. The only comparable springs across all sites are 2012 & 1921, which in most cases are generally cooler. For context, 2024 averaged 62.6F in April & May at MGW, and 61.7F at HLG. This is well above all of the months listed without March data. Heck, the April-May average at Morgantown was even higher than the May alone average from 1919.

After all the weeks of clouds and overall gloomy skies, the last four days or so have been quite awesome. Just brilliant blue to the skies, and unreal nice temps. Been a nice stretch.