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ICON is solid for many.

Winners and losers so far. Parts of southern Iowa are getting hosed by a persistent dry pocket that models absolutely did not show at all.

$20 says Partkon mesonet site gets its first inch. Every mile counts in these set ups Most epic early season forecast boom in my life. Forecast was 2"-4" of snow in western Carroll County and I got 8". We also got two NFL snow games that day.

Hard for me to get excited about this storm for anyone in New England just yet. We are still a couple of days from the southern component of this storm from forming, and there's still three different camps of thought on how it develops and tracks. I feel like Sunday morning is when we will get some consensus, when we start to get into the range of the high-res models sorting things out. That being said I feel like there's more of a chance of this storm being suppressed and progressive and missing most of the area instead of it being overly amped and flooding New England with cold rain. I don't think the SE ridge is going to be the main influence on this storm...

Saw flurries yesterday and last night for the 5th or 6th time this year, which is a good sign. 32° currently under a winter weather advisory tonight here in Augusta County northwest of Staunton.

12z ICON was close to you too.

y'all enjoy. I'll just take the rain.

The EPS is starting to pick up on the negative NAO.

may the lunch GFS and Euro be ever in our favor!

This morning was the coldest morning (26.1) here in East Nantmeal since last April 9th at 25.8. Warwick was the area cold spot at 22.1 degrees this morning. Sunny and chilly today with highs struggling to escape the 30's in the hills with low 40's in the valleys. Clouds increase tonight with some light snow or a mix of rain/snow arriving tomorrow morning before a quick change to plain rain. Monday looks sunny before snow arrives toward Tuesday morning. We should see a pretty steady transition from snow to rain from SE to NW across the area. The best chances for a small accumulation will be across far NW Chester County and into Berks and Lehigh counties. We keep temperatures well below normal all week with the coldest weather of the season arriving to close out the week. Temperatures on Friday may not even reach freezing for high temperatures.

This morning was the coldest morning (26.1) here in East Nantmeal since last April 9th at 25.8. Warwick was the area cold spot at 22.1 degrees this morning. Sunny and chilly today with highs struggling to escape the 30's in the hills with low 40's in the valleys. Clouds increase tonight with some light snow or a mix of rain/snow arriving tomorrow morning before a quick change to plain rain. Monday looks sunny before snow arrives toward Tuesday morning. We should see a pretty steady transition from snow to rain from SE to NW across the area. The best chances for a small accumulation will be across far NW Chester County and into Berks and Lehigh counties. We keep temperatures well below normal all week with the coldest weather of the season arriving to close out the week. Temperatures on Friday may not even reach freezing for high temperatures.

I wonder if the “2nd thread rule” will apply this year?

It would be great to window that over the northeast US and limit it to known winter precip events. Yes it's an IMBY interest but not just as a weenie... in terms of weighted impact those are the highest value runs.

That will be the question going forward i guess, Do they stay separate? Or do we get a partial or full phase.

Sorry, the Arena Football League is defunct. However, the Phillies season begins on Thursday, March 26, 2026.

So... I'm still not in the GFS camp... But, I have noticed it settling back over the last few runs. In the end.. I think the middle ground will have us ( everyone 84 on north ) more wintry than rain. The question remains.... Will it stay predominantly snow or be more of a mix. TBH.. I'd be happy even if it is a mix over rain.

Yeah it really liked that 2nd s/w dropping out of Canada and phased it right in.

Nam causally takes the low like just east of Baltimore and is a total cool job lol.

dry or rain always lock it in, if it shows snow i never believe in unless it's 24 hours away!

Sorry, the data just does not bear this out. The steady progression of model fidelity and accuracy continues and will actually start another upward spike as AI-based models are integrated with physics-based models.

12Z NAM amped hard to believe this is correct if you are saying the GFS is too amped

More GFS like than Euro

NW/Illinois and Mich State/Maryland are going to be interesting games. Looks like OSU/Mich will be mostly done before its impactful

25.3

I don’t expect much at all there.