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As per the usual, the GFS and ECMWF runs now have some varied solutions as to when and if the snow will come into Colorado.

I think that's because there's a -EPO a few days before. It takes the US pattern a few days to change after the Pacific changes, but that pattern is going warm. I guess the N. Pacific ridge heading a little polar could keep it cool enough near the Great Lakes. The longer that storm takes to get here, the more likely it is for rain. We want it early while there's still a -EPO in place pushing down a strong High pressure.

The last few years have been tough…we’ll take what we can get at this point. Juice, Mojo, special recipes…whatever.

Like I said, a bit too early. That said, both the Euro and GFS are hinting at a little something.

You need to get one of those torches the reefer addicts use to smoke their pots underwater.

We've gotten snow when there is +300dm over the Aleutian islands and -250dm just south of Greenland on Dec 5.. like never. I look at that map and say the opposite is what we want. Look how there's even 4 cold waves around the N. Pacific RNA (established).

Honestly, I want them all but Big Savage presents significant logistical challenges for moving equipment into place, personal safety for maintenance, and cell coverage for stable data transmission.

Trade Polish for Big Savage and you have a deal!

First WWA of the season, so there’s that. Whatever sticks should have staying power. @weatherboif you are out there this should be a good one for you.

Watch East Asia (EAR)

You looking for Bob’s old juice, huh. 30F

This is a pretty decent H5 look for ejecting a modest wave from the SW towards the MA with cold air pressing southward. Biggest negative is its a bit early in the season.

More stations will be coming to western Maryland. Personally, I hope to get a site atop Keyser's Ridge, Sideling Mountain, South Mountain, and Polish Mountain.

I like the massive day 9 trough in CA that was completely absent from 12z. Really makes me believe in these solutions.

It's a stretch here too

Euro weeklies look really good

yep, no more snow for us on the 18Z, everything shifted significantly north - northern New England and interior New York get a good snow from this run.

What markets? In the US - California has by far the highest percentage of EV sales of any state - and even there ICE vehicles are outselling EVs by over 3 to 1. And that was before the $7k tax incentive got removed recently.

Your post shows yesterday’s ext EPS predicting an 11 day long phase 8 for 12/14-24 averaging ~2.0 amplitude. The ext GFS is predicting a 12++ day long phase 8 for 12/13-24++ but with a much lower avg amp that with extrapolation would likely be headed to a sub 1.5 amp for the full phase 8 avg. Regarding the EPS prog, there hasn’t been an 11+ day phase 8 since back in Feb of 2010 (2/7-17). Regarding the GEFS prog of 12++ days, there hasn’t been a 12+ day long one since way back in Dec ‘75-Jan ‘76 (12/19-1/5)! There have been only two on record of 12+ days: the just mentioned one of 18 days and a 13 day long one 1/19-31/75. Also, the 15 long phase 8s (8+ days) have followed long phase 7s (9+ days) only twice out of the 15 cases although the two that did were two of the coldest. So, needless to say, I’m taking these very long phase 8 progs with a huge grain for now. Of the 15 long phase 8s at Baltimore, the ones averaging an amp of <1.8 (like GEFS has) were significantly colder in the E US on avg than those with an avg amp >1.8 (like EPS has). The GEFS-like sub 1.8 amp cases include the very cold outbreaks of Jan of 1985, Jan of 1988, Dec of 1989, and Feb of 2010 with 3+” snows in all (including historic snow in 2010) for all 4 in Baltimore for example. The other 3 sub 1.8 amp phase 8s had B or N temps. But half of the >1.8 amp phase 8s were warmer than normal! So, if there’s actually a very long phase 8, I’ll be rooting for one closer to the lower amp of GEFS than the higher amp of EPS due to better prospects for cold per long phase 8 history.

Ya Bob…muster up some of that old juice…but as you said not until the end of the week… at the earliest.

Yeah follow up storm on edge of waa snows is just more west and north so draws up a big slug of warm air so precip goes all liquid. Euro further south with baroclinic zone and develops low much further south and cuts it more east. Allows for good waa snows than a nice wraparound with low.

I don't have access to the study itself, but I wonder what all they include when calculating payback times. 6.1 months seems small. E.g. do they include: The energy to clear the forest, and grade the roads to the sites? The energy to build and install the additional power lines required to transport power from the generally-remote sites? The energy to run the vehicles to drive the workers to the sites? To provide their housing, food, etc.? In addition to the energy to build and transport the wind turbines - does it include the energy to build, transport, and run the cranes that erect them? The energy to mine the ore used for the steel for the turbines? The energy to create the trucks that mine said ore, to transport the ore to smelters, etc. ? Etc. etc. - probably thousands of components that could be included, that go into creating, installing, and running wind turbines ? (Obviously the same factors apply to all energy sources, not just wind) How far one goes with the energy required to do something ends up being a hard-to-define thing; the farther removed it goes from the end product the harder it is to gauge, since the uses of that energy end up overlapping with other uses (e.g. a given truck used to mine iron ore would mine ore used both for a wind turbine and for say an airplane). Nevertheless the fact that it's hard to measure doesn't mean it doesn't exist. There *is* a lot more iron, aluminum, etc. required to support wind farms; in no small part because they are mostly-redundant systems; they don't replace baseline systems (mostly nuclear, hydro, fossil) but instead are generally additive. With a number of only 6.1 months payback - I'm guessing they didn't go that far out the chain of dependencies. That number seems very small to me. I'm willing to be it's compiled by people who have a vested interest in making it as small as they can.

I’m feeling like I should break out of my doldrums and get my mojo going. See how things look late week and may get thread fired up.

End of day finally tried to clear up a bit right as the sun was going down.

It sure can. Keeps blowing my lighter out...