All Activity

Just about a half inch here. I'm glad we didn't have widespread wind and tornado activity so far, and I hope it stays that way through tonight. No one needs that after the damage we already had around the 4th. Went to attend a birthday party just over the border in New Hope, PA. Heading down 287 got hit with some mega rates, people started pulling over. Also while there a few solid downpours came through, I imagine the totals down there had to be near 2 inches. Looked like a creek in the parking lot.

Getting the atmospheric ducting thing with low rumbling extended thunder now. Must be a bit of an inversion layer.

Right when the two storm complexes merged, tornado warning

FYI That line east of KBGM has a tor warning. You had interest in that line earlier. Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Binghamton NY 637 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 NYC025-182300- /O.CON.KBGM.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-260718T2300Z/ Delaware NY- 637 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE COUNTY... At 636 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Harvard, or near Walton, moving east at 40 mph.

That part of DE always gets spinners, be safe!

Worst seems to be over now 1.60", time for a Steady Eddie

got another 1/4" of rain today, so that was good. I don't think we are getting jack out of the next round.

That is an exceptional amount of CAPE (nearly 6000) for a location on the East Coast. I am surprised there were not more svr hail reports. Low-level shear is weak. 0-6 km shear 37 kt so there is your supercell support. I think the storm coverage was a bit too much and that is what precluded more sig svr wx overall. A bit stronger capping probably would gone a long way.

Cell in Mercer is warned for Middlesex and southern somerset

yes MCD was issued which includes western CT mentioning uncertainty in whether downstream watch will be issued

Expectations should always be low in our setups really. At least for me, part of the fun in all this is the "unknown". 99.999999% of the time (or some number that's essentially 100% without being 100%) severe weather here is not going to be widespread or even concentrated, its just going to be some reports scattered about and localized. But back to the fun...its the tracking and monitoring to see even if one storm produces...and if that one storm does produce, there is someone out there who was directly impacted. These setups are just so intriguing in that regard because the kinematics support the potential and generally instability is usually just enough to warrant some concern, but ultimately low enough to where maybe only a few storms will ever become mature enough to utilize the environment.

Flash flood warning 1.54" and counting

A tornado warning now for portions of MD eastern shore and southern DE.

Getting some additional rain here with continuous T&L

At the ducks game now. Hoping those storms fizzle or skirt south……

Yeah you are getting crushed again. Might end up with 5"+ over the last several days.

Well crap that escalated quick. Tornado Warning just to my West of the place we are staying.

All of what you said is legit, but I'm leaning now towards the idea that this was an artifact. As you said, getting a strike super far away from the core is possible, but I think you need a much more powerful setup than we had today.

Collegeville near Wegmans was hit by heavy rain and thunder

Looks a couple cells in west central nj moving northeast

That was a lie, sideways rain and T&L, torrential 1.18" now.

Looks like the tornado warnings so far have been outside of the tornado watch (within the severe thunderstorm watches).

^I think we are still "evening out" a strong 28-year period of La Nina: Before this year, Per RONI, 5 of the last 6 years (20-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 7 of the last 10 years (16-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 11 of the last 19 years (07-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 15 of the last 28 years (98-26) have been La Nina. That's >50% La Nina since 1998. Since 1948, the tendency for reversal of multi-year ENSO patterns has been really strong. Here's the closest multi-year example: Only other period on record to have 5/6 La Nina's, until 2020-2026 (ONI):70-71: Moderate La Nina71-72: Weak La Nina72-73: Super El Nino73-74: Strong La Nina74-75: Weak La Nina75-76: Strong La NinaENSO tends to even out, historically. Here is what followed the 70-76 streak (ONI):76-77: Moderate El Nino77-78: Moderate El Nino78-79: Neutral79-80: Weak El Nino80-81: Neutral81-82: Neutral82-83: Super El NinoReally interesting that we didn't see another La Nina for 7 years after 70-76. Then again, it has also been really hard to go ENSO Neutral in any year: Since 1994, only 7/31 ENSO years have been Neutral, per RONI. 24/31 have either been La Nina or El Nino. Since 1994, only 7/31 ENSO years have been Neutral, per ONI. 24/31 have either been La Nina or El Nino. I don't know that we'll see a Moderate-Strong La Nina snap back this time. Cold water is not really building in the western-subsurface. Weak Nina would be my guess but I could be wrong!

Happy to miss the severe so far, any risk of the smoke sticking around if the rain busts though?