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Seems reasonable. 10% chance of warning level or above

It’s been bad for a while, when it’s on its own it’s usually wrong. Again I’m just saying have an open mind not saying this is guaranteed coming back to be a big hit.

It's okay - I've heard through the grapevine the Navy model was a bomb

I saw a ladybug in the backyard today. Just amazing, some of the insects are reappearing already. They're in for a rude awakening next week.

Yes and no. It'll get better again before it gets worse.

Based on the off hour run waffling, 18z probably comes back to a degree I’m guessing

Bluebird at sugarloaf Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Nice to melt the ice so we can get the full lake-effect back. Sunday night into Monday looks interesting locally.

I’m not saying the storm is going to hit at all. But a big hit is still on the table. Are you guys delusional or lack the of memory of the euro having how many fantasy blizzards in the 4 to 8 day range this season to not even come close to verifying when other models had no interest. The EPS is a joke as well come on guys. How many head fakes did we have with the EPS this season showing big hits to not even see a damn flake

I wasn't expecting anything so this is a win!

Plenty of time for it to get worse

Leads me to believe the opp run was a one off. Still plenty of time though.

Don’t forget to show us a screen shot of the median

They stink. Next

There are no trends

We’ve gotten snow but from storms that typically don’t favor us like the super SWFE on 1/25 and the clippers. Our bigger ticket storm types have failed just like last winter and ever since Jan 2022. We lucked out for once getting non-coastal storm snow.

Its been trash but it has the eps and gefs on the side. Still a very delicate situation.

It's still ~5 days out. Still plenty of time for trends, as Mr. Sey-Mour alluded to. Would ease my if the EPS improves.

Still not totally dead but I'm starting to be ready for spring! 90% reaped. We need the reaper back @WxWatcher007

Gefs also

Canadian ensembles fwiw

Took about an inch off the median. I'd guess this is all shot a scattershot of the IVT

Light snow huge flakes!

Based on what the Euro shows and overall trends I'll guess 70% whiff and 30% advisory level as of now. Subject to change of course but the trends seem fairly obvious IMO.

The coldest spot in the mesonet today is the Kent Island station with a NE sea-breeze.