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That's kinda what I always assumed for EMA..scattered 1-2" amounts with some OE stuff along coast

The 6z run has a 1065 over the Yukon on Jan 9. And that run of the GFS...sends it.

Anne Lennox is going to be hoarse from non-use if it does not change

This forecast is a real PITA. Toughest one in awhile and probably one of the top 5 most difficult since I started forecasting on my page 14 years ago.

Hammer updating maps to 6-10” most of CT and 3-6” far NE

NYC: 3.7” LGA: 4.3” JFK: 5.5” EWR: 4.8” ISP: 6.5” BDR: 5.8” Here and Upton: 7.5” somwhere in Orange County: 10”

Lots of ICE in those images Blizz. Let’s hope for some H’s to the north of us in a good position for SN. Lots of time.

I enjoyed tracking this storm simply from the uniqueness of the event. Not often you see a storm that’s primarily ice from the onset. Especially with temps in the 20’s and dews in the teens. We are usually hovering around 30/31 which makes ice accretion difficult. Let’s see what this storm has in store for everyone.

Well, I remember last year when for 2 or 3 weeks in late January into mid February, all 3 global ensemble models had our region consistently near 10 inches or more of snow. Ground truth turned out to be a light event or two. Point is, I no longer get excited about the 15 day ensemble totals until there is a specific threat to track. They should mainly be used for pattern recognition & identifying windows of opportunity in my opinion.

I didn't say I agreed with it, I said it was an operational error. It definitely shows zero snowfall on Long Island. But that's not my forecast.

Im Right there with you. My official call is 3.7” with a lot of sleet 19/7

PSF-WST basically goes over TOL

21/9

Yeah, I missed that. Fun find. Definitely feedback IMHO, but IMPRESSIVE that any model could actually find a way to that outcome. I just don't understand why we are seeing so much of that(feedback) this winter. WxBell graphics had to resort to white in order to illustrate that....they ran out of colors.

Lol. It shows a QPF bomb. It’s likely an issue with the product you are looking at. The GFS shows a huge hit. Don’t look at maps like that like that. Look at soundings and QPF

I’m actually somewhat optimistic that we may not see the total screw job we’ve become accustomed to here. This should have at least some higher upside than a dying weak shortwave running up against marginal temps like we’ve become used to. Id feel a lot better in CT

snowdepth change graphic, never shows any accum on Long Island.

Definitely don’t think this will be a whiff here lol. I think most of us are good too outside of central NJ/I-78 and S and maybe southern NYC, for them hopefully we see a NAM tick south at 12z. I don’t think this will be around long enough for 10”+ aside from maybe a lucky spot here or there, but 6-9” for most is definitely a solid event.

How about for NYC

Going to be a crazy cutoff sw of ewr. 2 to 8 for my backyard

True. It’s tough to know Which way are you leaning though ….

What? The GFS is a smoke job for Long Island. Where are you looking?

Box not impressed at all for this area. 1” maybe 2” in the spots with some ocean enhancement

I’m really expecting nothing more than a nuisance imby. Looks like very little snow and this isn’t a qpf bomb so probably an inch of sleet tops. That’s my expectations.

24F, occasional breeze Thinking snow kickoff between 4-5pm, 2-3" then crunch. Nowcast time...