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For the Midwest, depends how much blocking there is. AI isn't as aggressive with it as the OP Euro, but neither of them have had very stellar performances in the long range as of recent.

Afternoon AFD from LWX... @high risk i know you mentioned instability... LWX seems to be suggesting around 1K SBCAPE in the disco (bold mine) DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front pushes across the forecast area Monday, bringing gusty winds and potential for severe thunderstorms capable of producing significant damaging winds and tornadoes. Precipitation chances begin increasing Sunday as a potent low pressure system traverses across the Great Lakes into Canada, pushing the associated fronts across the Mid-Atlantic. The associated warm front lifts through the area Sunday night with the cold front tracking across the region during the day Monday. Aloft, a robust trough digs across the central CONUS, becoming slightly negatively tilted as it approaches and pivots across the east coast Monday. This will push the aforementioned cold front across the forecast area, bringing impactful weather throughout the day. In the wake of the warm front lifting through Sunday night, high temperatures on Monday will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Additionally, with southerly flow, dewpoints rise into the upper 50s to low 60s across much of the forecast area ahead of the cold front. Storms may initiate Monday morning with any shower/storm capable of producing gusty winds due to a strong wind field aloft. Later Monday morning and into the afternoon, storms develop along the cold front as it moves through from west to east. Damaging winds are likely with severe storms capable of producing significant damaging wind and tornadoes. With such a strong wind field aloft, there is the potential for wind gusts of 70 to 80 mph within severe storms. Current model guidance shows 300-400 m2/s2 SRH and up to 1400 J/kg SBCAPE which is compatible with a tornado risk across the area. SPC has the forecast area along and east of the I-81 corridor in an enhanced risk for severe weather with the rest of the forecast area in a slight risk. PWATS will be seasonably high, although a fast storm motion limits the flooding risk.

GFS did quite a decent job at sniffing it out early, not too shabby at all.

That is a wild map. My depth is an average of a huge area, always 10 readings. And even then I don't feel fully confident. I straight up tossed the stake as a data point after the blizzard.

They're having their own March 2012 it appears.

Just got back a bit ago from UMBC. Somewhere in Virginia, a cold chill just ran through.

Yikes...

If you saw the condition of my road you would understand the graveyard of hubcaps off to the side (if anyone still used hubcaps). It is wretched and embarrassing.

When a person that lived with Santa Ana winds in southern California for 35 years says they are tired of this 'blanking wind' in only 5 years, yeah, we do wind well.

The reevaluation has now been completed and is just what the doctor ordered for @Cobalt. BWI's Thursday snow total has been revised from a trace to 1.0 inch, which makes perfect sense -- the hourly observations there on Thursday listed "heavy snow" and a temperature of 33.1 degrees at 13:54 and "light snow" and that same temperature at 14:54, with precipitation during those two hours totaling 0.19 inches. An inch of snow thereafter translates into a snow/precipitation ratio of 5.3, which is reasonable with a wet snow. On the other hand, only a trace of snow with those hourly observations would have been close to impossible. So Cobalt is our new leader, but @Roger Smithremains in strong condition; see below.

The last AFD from Milwaukee-Sullivan is from midnight Friday? I can’t get anything newer.

March 23rd on the Euro

We'll see how much sleet mixes in I guess.

Been a long time since there’s been a radar like this!

If the current majority of models are to be believed, not a chance.

Pretty interesting on the ECAIFS for next Saturday through Monday

Upslope band is cranking. Just ripping snow on the mountains. Over 5" so far for the event.

Enhanced risk with up to 10% cig one hatched risk and wind risk is maintained at 45% cig 1 and now has a 15-5% cig 1 hail risk .

I can see localized 18" amounts for the Twin Cities. Meanwhile Green Bay may have their biggest snowstorm on record.

Yes it does

DVN issued a blizzard warning for their entire area. The snow forecast is 4-8", which seems a bit high, plus wind up to 60 mph.

Pacific is kinda crap but that's a legit NAO Rex Block as advertised. In late March, that could work.

You're in for an epic storm. If i didn't have work Monday I would definitely venture north to document this.