All Activity

I do

I was working at the Old Guilford Courthouse in Greensboro in the summer of 1977 That old giant Bank thermometer near us hit 100 a lot. I also remember the Greensboro paper running an article about a string of farms that got popup thunderstorms nobody else in the County Got-about 5 times.They were embarrassed to be so lucky while the rest of the county crops burned up

Hello Newman, For this winter, I’m thinking (none of this should be surprising based on super Nino analogs/models): -above normal precip (up to 3” above) within a couple hundred miles of the NE coast with highest anomalies near the coast and closer to normal well inland -above to MA normal precip SE with the largest anomalies in the deep SE/FL, where 4-8” will be common -anomalies tending to get colder as one goes further SE -New England/NE US likely to average 3-5F warmer than normal with warmest in N New England -Mid-Atlantic will likely average ~1-3F warmer than normal with closest to normal near coast -SE likely averaging near normal to slightly colder than normal with coldest anomalies deep SE/FL -Regarding snowfall, the SE tends to do best anomalywise in moderate or stronger El Niño winters. But even so, much of the SE, especially deep, is unforecastable since it takes only 1-2 snowstorms (often just 1) to make it a very winter there. But that chance tends to be best with El Niño winters vs other winters averaged out. Strong+ Nino winters have tended to have the best chance though moderate may be close.

@high risk when looking at future radar, should i be looking more at composite or 1km AGL? Or neither lol

Who likes dew points in the low 80s? That is truly tropical air in freaking Pennsylvania.

Today is not as bad as I feared it would be. Having said that, I completely agree with the sentiment.

he's a blowhard not worth wasting time on

Oh yes I can. Get this crap out of here.

Granted its 1km AGL reflectivity and composite reflectivity, but I don't hate what the 18z RRFS is showing between 02z and 06z for the region

It’s actually more likely the storms firing out ahead over northeast Ohio. That would be better, because we want these storms to arrive as early as possible.

Nope it fell apart just before reaching here, nothing but some mood drops. We blew the top off the thermometer today, topped out at 101.8!!!

I took mine too, but am parking in the garage later

Fwiw, both 16z and 17z HRRR have an MCS/line/complex come rolling through the region between midnight and 3am. 17z HRRR encompasses more of the region than the 16z run did. Not saying its severe, just something to think about overnight as we watch it develop out to our NW ETA - 18z HRRR same idea... but an hour or so faster

Up to 87

Indeed, it has become more E based despite a flat Nino 3.4 recently since Nino 3 has warmed some while Nino 4 has cooled some netting out to an essentially flat period for Nino 3.4.

I'll tell you though, it felt great running in 69 degrees and cloudy yesterday. Not nice weather obviously, but great for outdoor exercise.

Thanks, Charlie. Interesting. The contradiction of viewpoints/supporting data and info as well as the complexities involved in this terrible disaster are why I said that most of what Martz put in that post is at least worthy of discussion/debate. I think that the odds of CC being at least a little involved are high. I feel that the main debate is whether CC was a major factor or just a minor factor. I agree that it’s too early to conclude anything and there likely will be continued disagreements in upcoming releases. We may never know the exact answer.

Taking my car tot he car wash, so we will get hit hard with storms later.

Excellent afternoon AFD from LWX for tonight into tomorrow .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms today and Friday. Clouds have readily thinned in the wake of morning shower and thunderstorm activity. This is allowing for temperatures to rise quickly through the 80s to near 90. This heating will play an important role in the potential for severe weather through the evening hours. As of 2:30 PM, a few discrete (transient supercell) thunderstorms had developed over the Shenandoah Valley, and had a history of producing large hail and wind damage. These storms are developing in an area that has been clear since daybreak, and in an area of enhanced low-level convergence due to residual outflow from morning convection to the north, a washed out front, and terrain circulations. Anticipate this activity to continue into the late afternoon hours with a risk of localized damaging wind gusts and large hail. Meanwhile, upstream over the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, a large reservoir of MLCAPE 3000-4000+ J/kg exists. The north end of this CAPE pool lies along the southern edge of the westerlies, with a 100+ kt 300 hPa jet streak and mid-level shortwave impulse located just to the north. This setup is favorable for the development of a Mesoscale Convective Complex (MCS), which is an organized line of thunderstorms that persists for several hours. Locally, mid-level lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km (per latest mesoanalysis and the KIAD 12Z RAOB) atop a very moist boundary layer with surface dew points well into the 70s F will lead to increasing CAPE despite the late start at surface heating. The question then becomes just how organized upstream storms become, and how stable the boundary layer is heading further into the evening. A more organized and potent line of storms a bit earlier in the evening would result in a notably higher risk for more numerous damaging wind gusts, especially focused along the residual baroclinic zone/theta-e gradient which should lie near the Potomac River/US-50/I-66 this evening. A somewhat slower and/or more disorganized line would result in a lower risk for severe surface gusts, though some isolated damaging winds would still be possible given high CAPE/DCAPE and the shallow nature of the stable layer near the surface. Areas of western Maryland and perhaps into the eastern West Virginia panhandle are most likely to see the storms prior to the onset of appreciable nocturnal boundary layer stability. The area remains in a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather from SPC as of the midday outlook update, driven mostly by the threat of damaging wind gusts. There is a threat for large hail in stronger cores, though mid-level lapse rates will gradually become less steep tonight. A linear storm mode would tend to be less favorable for large hail production (as opposed to discrete/individual cells), as well. A few discrete cells are possible this evening in weak low-level WAA, however, independent of any linear system that may affect the region. These storms would be most likely to develop over northern and central Virginia into central Maryland along a weak surface trough and the aforementioned moisture/instability gradient. Additional showers and thunderstorms, possibly strong to severe, are anticipated again on Friday. Timing is a bit uncertain given the subtle waves aloft, but increasing low-level convergence paired with another upper impulse may very well result in another round or two of storms with a damaging wind risk. The latest guidance has nudged the threat a bit further north, encompassing areas as far north as I-70 or the Mason-Dixon line (as opposed to I-66/US-50). This will depend on any residual early day clouds or convection, of course.

Just went out to my truck to get something and its just 101.1 outside here. Did you get any rainfall from the cell yesterday late in the day? Its been bone dry here for the last week and a half.

I see Mt. Holly and State College both issuing Heat Advisories for temps in the 80s now. (Maybe residual from a blown forecast or something. But still...)

probably just misses east but given the strength, way too close to totally write off now for some of those islands. Big Island probably fine outside of dangerous waves but those far northwestern islands...I'd be a little sweaty if I were them.

Ring of Fire week of mid 90s in September produces not a single drop of rain here. Not one.

As I said yesterday, despite the “pause” in Nino 3.4 in August, it has become significantly more east-based regardless.

Looks like a very near miss to me. I had flights and hotels pulled up yesterday though.