All Activity

About .66” overnight and 1.08” since Thursday in E CT

"Unsettled weather will continue much of this week with showers/isolated thunderstorms that will produce heavy rainfall at times. Appears we may briefly dry out by Thursday, before more rain arrives Friday into Saturday. Depending on how much rain falls, we could see rises over bankfull on larger rivers and smaller streams across interior Southern New England." Swell...

We've discussed the problem with comparing city and airport obs in Detroit and Chicago before. Need to maintain consistency or remove station changes to isolate the long-term climate trend. Winter warming has been uniform across the eastern US. If anything warming increases slightly from south to north. The fastest warming is in the upper midwest and northern New England. The warming map is confirmed by long-term data from Ann Arbor and lake freeze data from Mendota Lake in Madison Wisconsin.

I only got a little drizzle yesterday but around 1:30am this morning this slow moving precipitation cell set up perfectly centered over my neighborhood and gave me a very nice steady rain for at least fifty minutes. It looks like Harrisburg is doing well now to from this slow mover.

December Natural Gas contract is almost right at $5... I usually say below $5 favors +NAO, and above $5 favors -NAO.. below $3 stronger +NAO, and above $8 stronger -NAO.. So right now almost exactly neutral on NAO prediction there. March '26 Natural Gas is $4.20.. a slight +NAO lean for later in the Winter.

QBO should be negative.. March to April went from +11 to +6. When it changes phases it usually lasts at least 10 months. -QBO with El Nino favors Stratosphere warmings, but ENSO looks to be more Neutral this Winter. -QBO's with neg-Neutral ENSO have been known for cold December's then switching to warmer Jan-Feb (89-90, 05-06), but there's not enough data to say that for sure. My N. Atlantic SST method predicted +0.52 NAO last Winter (DJFM), and it ended up being +0.65. That makes it 15-5 on getting the right sign in real time since I came up with it in 2005. Also 11-9 within the estimated standard deviation of +0.54. The index runs May-Sept, so it's too early to say where it's going right now.

CPC's DJF 2025-26 Winter outlook

We now have a +OHC!

You can read about meteorological features, but it’s fascinating to see it all play out in realtime. Do you think some of those high end QPF depictions the next few days have a chance of verifying? I lean toward the Euro being more right than not, though I think it’s running a little hot. It’s not alone though.

I have been home from Florida for 65 days and I think we've had maybe 20 decent days. I'd be okay if we deleted march and April from the calendar.

And here’s how that looks like on radar.

It’s been a steady moderate to heavy rain all night. There’s a squeeze play with the high in QB trying to sink southward and the southerly flow cranking up…so some decent fronto. Pretty much perfect deformation over us with the col right over my head.

I think they have starter fertilizer with weed prevention, not sure how well it works since it's not the same as regular fertilizer. Depending on the size of the area the sod idea wasn't a bad idea.

1.5” May total, so far, in my area of Greenfield.

Somebody down here might get smoked. I’m at .98” since Friday.

Elevated TC threat SE US May 26th-June 1st per Euto Weeklies fwiw: signal has persisted for a few days for then and it looks like a W Caribbean/gyre origin:

Sorry bud

Meanwhile I wore a sweater and the heat ran all day. Lol spring in the midwest

Noone remembers summers.

I have this theory, post 2016 every third winter has been a snowless torch fest. 16-17, 19-20, 22-23 The latter two had totals less than an inch for the 95 corridor. This upcoming winter will test the theory to see if it holds.

About .35” in SW Nassua. Finally got through the trees when we had decent rates. I hope this isn’t another warm season tracking rain like snow accumulations.

There seems to be some moisture coming. Should be beneficial rains at a time when the region can benefit from it, soak it up… during green up. The vegetation is thirsty when it becomes active again.

That's the setup for an EPIC FEBRUARY PATTERN

My car is buried under maple keys. It's ridiculous.