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30 degrees this morning. Model's are sure doing a lot of wiggle wiggle wiggle. I guess you southern Pa guys just deal with what the models are going to give you…Good Luck!

OKX AFD: Operational 00Z GFS and ECMWF continue to come in a bit farther north with the low track. Ensembles still support a low track well south of the area Sunday night into Monday, but the ECMWF ensemble mean is slightly farther north and a couple of mb stronger than previous run. The GFS ensemble mean is generally the same track as the previous run, but also a couple of mb deeper. The respective AI models are also a bit farther north, now introducing some QPF into the forecast area, whereas previous runs did not. This is likely due to the slightly more amplified northern stream shortwave that allows the surface low off shore to strengthen, bringing in more moisture into the region. Chances for at least some minor accumulations have increased. However, if the operational GFS verifies, we could see high end advisory level snow across NYC, Long Island, and NE NJ. Did not want to jump on board with something as drastic as the GFS just yet, but if the northward trend continues, higher snowfall would be expected. Right now, a 1-2" (closer to 1", though locally higher amounts of 2" or slightly higher are possible) is expected for much of Long Island, with all other areas under an inch.

34 and cloudy is their lot

Picked up a dusting of snow overnight. Mostly cloudy 25F

That is a significant pattern, especially with average low temperatures breaking records two years in a row. Warmer overnight temperatures often indicate broader shifts in regional climate conditions, not just daytime heat spikes. It would be interesting to compare long term trends to see if this reflects ongoing warming or short term atmospheric circulation changes.

My nephew lives in Roseville, to the NE of Sacramento. One time he and his wife drove a couple hours to Tahoe to see 4-5 feet of snow on the ground, then drove home to 50s and sun. Man, CA makes me jealous

2.5” remaining but the sloped, sunny spots have caved.

^^^ wrt to this, I am just giving my $.02. Lack of data in = lack of data out. If anyone wants to delve into the why's and who's I strongly suggest taking that discussion to the political/o.t. subforum to avoid unnecessary banter here.

I went outside expecting spring birds chirping and mild south wind. Nope. Thankfully still winter lol

who is "we" ? If you are talking about your area in Rockland County - yes you are on the edge of the precip shield - BUT my area in Central NJ should get more.

The fact that we even got snow from clippers this year is a step in the right direction. We haven't really had any pan out in the last 20 years before that, since the big one on January 22, 2005 that turned into a Nor'easter. I was starting to think snow from clippers were a thing of the past.

15 degrees early this morning.

You win.

3.8% is enough to melt all the snow on the ground.

HA! I am, I despise being in the the sun

That's great - same here, 5th grade! It's the storm that got me hooked.

Will be a struggle to get it up this far. But speed that southern vort a tad more, and things would look better.

Chuck: The CPC agrees with you. The PDO is a significant contributing issue to the pattern. They issued the latest 3 - 4 week outlook yesterday for Feb. 28 - Mar. 13. This predicts warmer than normal and drier than normal for eastern portions of our region with normal precip. for western portions.

We're one day short of a new moon on Sunday night (only 3.8% illuminated.) Let's see what you can do with that wise guy.

I think I have about 15-20 flakes that landed on my patio table this morning. I am not buying the GFS either considering it's track record this year. Doesn't look like the local mets are buying it as well. Still banking on the storms next week to hamper my travel plans. Fantasy land has March coming in like a lion.

The trend for over a year now since the drought pattern started has been for the models to show a lot of QPF at range only to drop it significantly as we get closer in time. The overall dryness since September, 2024 has been staggering, we’ve left the 2001-02 drought in the dust, it’s not even close

As we get into next week, if things keep trending colder, maybe "Hub" will do another thread, he is on a roll lately! 26F/light clouds

Why is there that amount of disparity amongst models in the year 2026 lol

Moon angle. The moon reflects the sun's light.