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Dog's name isn't Jeb, is it?

Only to be melted by the rain the next day. What I'm hoping for with the pattern set up looking into January is that we have the cold that stays in place. That way when we do have snow events it won't melt the next day.

Agreed. I haven't dug into ratios yet. I was thinking ratios should be great given how cold we are, but that warming aloft from just above 850 to like 725 might play some sort of factor. But what could help even into central CT is higher ratios to yield potential for an inch. I love these type of storms because there is so much going on in the mesoscale and storm processes that play such a large role. I really wish though the strongest WAA was farther northwest and I also hate how (again) the WAA weakens with time. This is going to net some negative busts somewhere, just a question as to where.

Veteran weenies are very superstitious. One time a newbie started a thread too early and a guaranteed lock snow storm/blizzard mysteriously sailed out to sea. He was stoned to death...

You lost me at Hello! (Jk)... But .....wow, do you have a way of extrapolating your thoughts. However, after reading through your very deep reasoning on people going in circles ( basically, the f definition of insanity ) , yes it makes a lot of sense.

Upton's high end / low end probability maps show quite a range - for example, New Brunswick gets 8" in the high end, but a trace in the low end. Whenever I see this, in the few years that such maps have been published, my layman's takeaway is that there's big divergence among the models and/or a narrow jackpot zone, at least as of now. Is that an accurate take? Seems that way based on the maps that I've seen posted this morning.

You were due to get boned...especially relative to my area. We usually run neck-and-neck, but you have throttled me past couple of seasons, and to start this one.

Yeah. It looks nasty. Models showing .5-.75 inches of rain with most of it being freezing rain.

Sleet > zr all day, any day, so if we can't get snow I'm all-in on Team Sleet.

Congrats outer cape on a white Christmas

Hard to tell if I need to rush home Friday morning or not

Hoping the decent stuff gets up and over this way…a couple inches would go along way.

I think another very interesting part about this storm is that the have nots will be more drastic than normal.. The storm trajectory will aid in training of the heaviest band of snow and the dry slots..

Sullivan county is racking up this December! I’m just over 16” ytd here to your SE. Fri night event looks to hit the same areas so you should def be adding to that total

Gfs is basically 6-10. There will be high amounts towards 10 most likely inland.

Has anyone heard when in Q1 the RRFS replaces the NAM?

I bet a few board members here act the same.

Steve D from NYNJPA weather says to watch 12/31-1/1 for a potential storm around that time

I actually thought I saw a bee flying on the porch. Unbelievable on Christmas Eve!

Unlike many times I think this could be accumulating sleet as the predominant p-type...sleet counts as snow

Yeah GFS has not budged much at all which is a great sign and probably is leading the way with this. Going to wait on the Euro then probably put a forecast together. I wouldn't even be surprised to see some thundersnow to our southwest. The ceiling for totals is going to be interesting...going to have to factor in speed and also consider that dry punch. But thinking about it more, I think that dry punch works to enhance snowfall rates and yield potential for thundersnow.

SW CT is in that range too FWIW.

I’ll take that SW of Hartford.

lost it years ago....point is we have been waiting years for one of them to fill the ace roll, otherwise we have had a starting 5 that looks like the Rockies....

AGW predicts increasing extremes