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Yeah, that 2018-20 period was a disjointed at best. We didn't really have a definitive ENSO or PDO state during those years (the PDO was near neutral for the greater part of almost 4 years after the mid-2010s el nino dissipated), until we got to 2020-21, which was a solid la nina and -PDO.

60° every Christmas morning for safe travel!

Already 74° with a projected high of 74.

Central MD special Now if only I trusted the RGEM at this range more.

Wednesday's front not looking like it will have much rain with it

i’ll take whatever rain we can get whenever we can get it at this point

It's like a yearly tradition. But it is still May and Memorial day is early this year.

It isn’t going to happen, but the Euro and HRRR have DC at 100 on Tuesday.

About as many times as it actually happens j/k. yeah who knows. There's nothing wrong with commiserating the modles

...that'd be an interesting war -tech. Imagine a distant future world where weather modification replaced forecasting. Other than ruining this pastime ... maybe such a realm would include the WMD, Weather Machine of Destruction that throws big storm bombs at enemies. I dunno, where the hell is the end goal of Quantum Computing and what does that look like?

How many times do we see this ? People freak and wring hands in consternation over a rainy weekend 5 days out and come verification time it’s one day or part of a day wet and the rest of the time is fine . And then you see posts like .. well this wasn’t bad at all … where’s the rainy weekend etc . Same will happen with MDW

Since Sunday afternoon thru overnight I have picked up 0.59”. About half of that from thunderstorms yesterday, and the rest thru snow showers early this morning. The temp is 35 degrees, and it will be interesting to see whether we get to the 4-5” of accumulation today. Regardless, it is good moisture.

Got another 0.47" overnight into this morning, so at least we are getting something from each round. My weekend total is 1.22". Models are still suggesting almost everything will be down in Missouri later today.

Yeah, that EC-AIFS frontal stall isn’t pretty. Let’s hope the front at least clears the area by Memorial Day. But the slow moving front and easterly winds signal is there for rain at least one day out of the three from Saturday to Monday.

Not that you asked 'how' but what's happening in those guidance formulations is something more akin to the 00z GFS' aggressively suppressed version overall. BN, but dry results. Which ...I'd take that as a compromise over a wet dildo flogging as though the Canadian and European forecast offices conspired and directly parameterized their models to specifically target and destroy Mem Weekend for joy destruction. haha I guess for now... solace in the notion that it's 120+ hours away so maybe the shits models runs'll change.

Low of 63. Record highs for the next three days are 94/95/94, wonder if we can challenge any of 'em. In any case, we should more than erase our -3 degree monthly departure. Baseball practice for 4-6 year olds should be fun tonight ha. Onward.

Records: Highs: EWR: 94 (2017) NYC: 92 (2017) LGA: 97 (2017) JFK: 88 (1977) Lows: EWR: 43 (2003) NYC: 41 (1973) LGAL: 44 (2002) JFK: 43 (2023) Historical: 1825 - A tornado (said to have crossed all of the state of Ohio) smashed into the log cabin settlement of Burlington, northeast of Columbus. (David Ludlum) 1877: Record maximum temperature for Washington, DC for the date is 96 °F. 1883: The massive tornado outbreak on record in Illinois affected the northern and central parts of the state. At least 14 strong to violent tornadoes touched down killing 52 people. The largest death toll from a single tornado was 12, with 50 injuries, from an estimated F4 tornado which moved from near Jacksonville to 5 miles west of Petersburg. This tornado destroyed the town of Literberry. Another tornado, with an estimated F4 intensity, killed 11 people and injured 50 along its path from the south edge of Springfield northeast to near Kenney. This particular tornado reportedly drove 10 inches by 12-inch oak timbers 10 feet into the ground. Another estimated F4 tornado in far northern Illinois touched down near Capron and tracked for 17 miles before lifting in far southern Wisconsin. Lastly, an estimated F4 tornado tracked 20 miles through Kenosha and Racine Counties in Wisconsin. Eight people were killed, and 85 were injured. 1915: A spring snowstorm began across parts of the east-central Rockies into parts of the west-central Plains. The storm produced 11.8 inches of snow at Scottsbluff, NE by the end of the day with 5 inches of snow recorded at Cheyenne, WY. 1960 - Salt Lake City UT received an inch of snow. It marked their latest measurable snowfall of record. (The Weather Channel) 1979: Baseball size hail fell from a severe thunderstorm over Hollis, in Harmon County, Oklahoma. The hail destroyed thousands of windows and damaged most of the roofs in the town. Two people were injured when they were hit by the hail. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1980 - Mount Saint Helens (in Washington State) erupted spewing ash and smoke sixty-three thousand feet into the air. Heavy ash covered the ground to the immediate northwest, and small particles were carried to the Atlantic coast. (David Ludlum) 1985: At Newark, NJ, the barometric pressure fell to 29.23 inches of mercury to establish an all-time record low reading for the month of May. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - Thunderstorms in Kansas, developing along a cold front, spawned tornadoes at Emporia and Toledo, produced wind gusts to 65 mph at Fort Scott, and produced golf ball size hail in the Kansas City area. Unseasonably hot weather prevailed ahead of the cold front. Pomona NJ reported a record high of 93 degrees, and Altus, OK, hit 100 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Low pressure anchored over eastern Virginia kept showers and thunderstorms over the Middle Atlantic Coast Region. Flash flooding was reported in Pennsylvania. Up to five inches of rain drenched Franklin County PA in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from the Central Gulf Coast States to the Lower Missouri Valley during the day and evening. Thunderstorms spawned sixteen tornadoes, and there were 74 reports of large hail and damaging winds. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the central U.S. spawning a sixteen tornadoes, including a dozen in Nebraska. Thunderstorms also produced hail four inches in diameter at Perryton TX, wind gusts to 84 mph at Ellis KS, and high winds which caused nearly two million dollars damage at Sutherland NE. Thunderstorms deluged Sioux City IA with up to eight inches of rain, resulting in a record flood crest on Perry Creek and at least 4.5 million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1995: A severe weather outbreak occurred in the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys. 86 tornadoes were reported; five F4 intensity. his was one of the largest tornado outbreaks in two decades in Tennessee. 6 people were killed and 65 others injured. Three people were killed at Ethridge, TN. A tornado causing F2 damage touched down near Festus, MO causing almost $200,000 dollars in damage. An F2 tornado touched down on the eastern shore of the Chesapeake Bay, one mile south of Cordova in the Kittys Corner area, destroying two homes. 2002: An unusually cold air mass for mid-May brought many record lows to the Midwest, Plains and South along with unseasonable snows to the Northeast. Some record lows included: Hibbing, MN: 22°, International Falls, MN: 24°, Houghton, MI: 24°, Fargo, ND: 25°, Grand Forks, ND: 25°, Bismarck, ND: 26°, Pierre, SD: 26°, Huron, SD: 26°, Minot, ND: 27°, Duluth, MN: 28°, Madison, WI: 28°, Sioux Falls, SD: 30°, Norfolk, NE: 30°, Valentine, NE: 30°, Hill City, KS: 30°, Wausau, WI: 30°, Rockford, IL: 31°, Milwaukee, WI: 33°, Bluefield, WV: 33°-Tied, Lincoln, NE: 34°, Chicago-O'Hare, IL: 34°, , Burlington, IA: 35°, Cedar Rapids, IA: 35°, La Crosse, WI: 35°, Quincy, IL: 35°, Akron, OH: 35°, Columbia, MO: 35°, Blue Hill, MA: 35°, Dubuque, IA: 35°-Tied, Des Moines, IA: 36°, Springfield, MO: 37°, Boston, MA: 37, Pittsburgh, PA: 37°-Tied, Springfield, IL: 38°, Joplin, MO: 39°, St. Louis, MO: 39°, Paducah, KY: 39°, New York (LaGuardia), NY: 44°-Tied. A late season snow occurred over the Northeast. Prattsville, NY recorded 8 inches. 2.2 inches fell at Albany, NY for its latest measurable snowfall on record. Snow fell as far south as northern Pennsylvania.

Yeah and I'm not predicting a torpedoed summer per se. Just annoyed by it, because I don't like BN weather in late spring and summer heh ... kind of a snarky post. But it does appear the polar jet is unusually strong and guiding the pattern still as we get pretty damn late in the spring here. If I were capable of completely divorcing personal druthers from it all, I guess it's gotta be interesting to have that taking place in +d(Climate)

79 / 64 for many day 2 of the heatwave other just short i the mid - upper 80s. Peak of the hot surge Tue/Wed mid - upper 90s in the warmest spots. Wed timing with the front looks later in the pm with rain/showers/thunderstorms 0.25 - 0.50 where any stronger showers develop. Thu - Memorial day looking cloud onshore-ish and good for lawns horrible for bbq and outside. We'll see if the overall ridge can push the muck out sooner but 60s / or even 50s on Saturday another crapola memorial day weekend in an otherwise ridgy pattern. Beyond there heat spike in the 5/27 - 5/31 period as ridge pushes in.

New England forests (and wildlife) have made a remarkable comeback in the last 100 years. Mass is now something like 65% forested. I think it was down to 25% at one time

Felt weird having it be so warm early in the morning in may

I don’t disagree, I think we see brief 3-4 days of hot weather then drop back to normal or slightly below.

Hhheeelllloooooo 6z RGEM

Pray the AI models are correct for the weekend. Thats how you would salvage 2 of 3 days

Like clockwork, the short-med range is drying out fast. .