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Very impressive setup. Especially for March. Looks like a pretty exciting event. I still wish I was up in the UP for the blizzard. If I wasn't back to my busy season I would be up in Marquette right now.

You might be closer to 45-50

SPC mentioning the potential for a long track tornado or two. Oh man.

Our summer forecast will probably come down to how far east this ridge can expand since it has been stuck in place since November. This month we are getting dual ridges out West and in the East. Could be some very impressive summer warmth expanding across the CONUS if we get a similar linking up between the ridges like we have had this month. But the magnitude of the coming Western warmth will be higher than in the East even though several spots like NYC experienced their earliest 80° warmth on record.

Ours came out last week the first day of that warm spell. I heard it just a few the first day of the I'm warm spell... The next day it was like a symphony.

Was wondering if peepers would get going soon

Birds are now here in full effect. Also noticed the peepers a couple nights ago. only the largest snowbanks are left here. No ground cover.

Wow, haven’t seen this in a while. Maybe August 2023 was the last moderate risk day here? At least the QLCS holds off until after school dismissal and kids have a chance to get home.

Well that was a swing and a miss for MSP. Idk what it’ll take to get a storm to live up to the hype around here. .

Happy to have nothing to do with this one on Selection Sunday March 15th is for 65 degrees and day drinking. Hard pass on any snow.

Very active Monday likely. If we get higher dews/temps and more sun than forecast then wind/tornado threat goes way up

Hoping for 60+, but probably will end up 50-55mph here and 60-70 out East

Continuing discussion and eventually observations/nowcast posts for the Monday severe weather event potential can go here. @WxUSAF or other mods please pin this thread if you get the chance. 15% TOR and 60% WIND are extremely rare in these parts. While I am not downplaying anything - I do think the appearance of 60% wind has a lot to do with the new SPC outlook methodology. Nonetheless, an active weather day tomorrow seems on tap. Usual failure modes still exist (stabilizing cloud cover or early day showers) The shear environment is pretty insane.

Ditty finally gets his siggy damaging wind event?

Thankfully normal highs are well in the 50’s in the NYC metro area now that we’re in spring, so those depicted negative departures are not actually cold

0Z NAM with a mini-Namming, showing 6”+ with the frontal passage of the big Midwest storm Monday afternoon. As you would expect, that backed off a little this morning Will still be interesting to see if that’s just a little white rain, or if there can be a period of accumulating snow.

NAM is still pretty wild with that LLJ…pushing 100kt at 925. It’s a little inverted on soundings, but we could be pushing 60/58 type air over the interior. Other models are a little more tame so the NAM is probably overdone. It’ll be interesting to see how much we can mix down. Getting those dews near 60° in March wouldn’t normally worry you about being inverted.

It's over for the co river Been over for a long time but this starts the death spiral

Ready for 1.5 to 2 inches (of rain) and an exciting dab

Imagine you booked an extremely expensive Hawaiian vaca and this is your weather

I'll get a separate thread started in a bit!

Temp right below freezing here at 31.5 Convective shower just moved through and woke me up with a nice burst of sleet

Better Image

4 of those winters were colder than normal in the northeast (88-89 the exception I believe) . Western ridge patterns?