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South wind really started picking up in the last hour. Gusting between 40-50 mph. Temp is up to 64.

Yeah, but relatively speaking (for this scenario, and climatologically) this is plenty CAPE, probably 750-1000. Don’t really need the CAPE when you’ve got so much else going for you, so not a typical HSLC setup where that would be a limiting factor.

Just 13 days away at the end of March….and on an operational model….what could possibly go wrong?? Lol

The qualm before the storm

Need it more than neutral

Point and click again not displaying the storm threat. Not even mention severe in grids. Not sure why this keeps happening.

Occasional rumbles of thunder, steady rain, and down to 38 degrees.

Small flakes in Traverse City right now. Waiting to see how the icing works out.

The Charlotte DMA local TV media and the Charlotte Observer have been covering it since yesterday. Charlotte is own its own when it comes to weather forecasting. Look at my 1st and 3rd post here as to why.

That won't cut it in late March

Been a sleet/freezing rain fest for the past couple hours. Bright banding overhead is pushing reflectivities very high

Im seeing "HSLC" a lot. Does that stand for "high shear, low CAPE"?

@stormtracker

https://x.com/forecaster25/status/2033247105238569123

Yeah you are right about that. Merrill is pretty nice. I worked for Canadian National railroad as a freight train conductor when I was living there.

LOT generally agrees with you. Seems like they're not really buying into the high totals the Euro has for the western suburbs too.

Just think they are still clearing up trees from that severe snow storm that hit here. There are a lot of trees still leaning over roads. If those winds are bad with the rain, that will bring the rest of them down. I get off work at 2 p.m. and wondering if the bay bridge maybe closed for traffic. I guess I'll take a overnight bag for a hotel.

I remember reading about this back in that 2012 storm we had. Crazy that happened up here.

Fwiw, EuroAI still likes 26-28th period, but is on an island alone at this point.

Euro at the end also shows something but way out there. Not shocking if we do get something with the MJO and teleconnections. Slim chance.

Are you kidding me?? These morons and clowns…look what S and S said about tomorrow! PEOPLE ALIVE AND WELL TODAY WILL DIE IN THESE STORMS TOMORROW… Talk about starting hype and panic…do people actually follow these idiots?

A little teaser for everyone...

https://www.tornadotalk.com/may-31-1998-pa-ny-tornado-outbreak/ For those new to PA I remember this like yesterday. Those three days were off the charts in terms of storm potential. I was Tornado warned twice on 6/2 with the second warning being the Lake Carey tornado that killed two and injured dozens.

Do not know about a designated floor marshal. Did tell her tomorrow morning before they start to ask at the front desk of the CAGE, where all the check outs for equipment is done about a designated tornado shelter in the building. I will alert her about flash flooding. I think that part of campus is on pretty high ground but you just never know with water. She did say that the level of the studio there are bathrooms outside in the hall that have no windows so that in my mind would be the place I would go. I am going to copy and paste this and send it to her. At least it is an idea of a plan and with talking to staff in the building tomorrow she can do a second safety meeting before shooting starts. Thanks!

Euro is pretty wet. 18z Nammy should be fun HREF