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It’s less important what the long range models are showing since that can vary from run to run. But the long range forecast biases for each type of regime remain more constant over time. Plus the inability of the models to see seasonal repeating patterns until the actual pattern is getting close to occurring.

possible tornado by Jersey Village TX (Houston area)

Beautiful afternoon to put up Christmas decorations!

this place will be a mess on 11/25...

Change of Euro OP over last 3 runs for late period I figured it was worthy to mention since some of the other runs were.

Same storm track pattern heading into December. Great Lakes cutter, I-78 to I-84 hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream. Plus we haven’t had a gradient pattern work for us in over a decade.

This is great. Thanks!!

I’ll still be there most of the time. We have a house I don’t want to sell anytime soon. EH is still home for me, and I have work (obviously fairly flexible) and my elderly mom. Wife and I will just figure out next steps. Six months ago none of this was even imaginable. My life has been a roller coaster since my dad passed in 2021. Lots of twists and turns. I think this is a good one though. fair I mean I’m talking about this as it’s -SN under partly sunny skies and 34°. I became PF in less than an hour. Only us weenies would think about this stuff lol. Front door and yard faces due east. When we originally looked at the place my wife was wondering why I spent so much time looking at the trees. “Need to know if a westerly wind will put a tree in the bedroom”

At least drought conditions should improve

I have repeatedly watched the deterministic GFS lead the way over other deterministic and ensembles at this time of the year(during past winters). It maybe doesn't do that as we get later into winter, but it seems to do a little better(than other models) during late shoulder season and early winter. I do admit ensembles carry more weight, but a lot of those ensemble members are cold. At the very least, some very cold weather is not out of the realm of possibility. And if the trend continues during future runs, those ensembles will flip. Fun 12z suite for sure. Pretty big cold signal for Dec 3 and/or Dec 6.

Half a million people under tornado warning in Texas.

No idea if it is any good at all, but 12z euro AI ensemble mean snow is 2-3” through the metro area through D15.

Happy hour will be rockin’ today! Cheers to canceling / uncanceling winter on 11/24.

If it's at all helpful, I know that Tropical Tidbits offers some euro AI data with Pivotal Weather having a more extensive selection of publicly available products, including basic snowfall output for the euro AI and maybe its ensemble. https://beta.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf_aifs/sn10_acc-imp/conus?run=2025112412&forecastHour=156

Well if your front yard faces southeast, then your back should be northwest right. If you’re looking at your backyard, then move to the right some…that should be north I’d imagine.

Anyone ever done flavor injection for a turkey? Trying it for the first time this year, and seeking opinions/others experiences

I hate to say it, but I feel the Eagles are on the verge of a 2023-type collapse. This team is way too soft to even hold on to a 21-0 lead. The offense is broken, and the defense can only hold up for so long. (In fact, I can see the defense starting to crack.) The Eagles are going to lose on Friday, and will probably end with a 9-8 or 10-7 record. That may still be good enough to win the NFC East, but we will likely lose to a team like Seattle in the Wild Card round.

I agree. I see the usual warmanistas on the Main Forum are using Ensembles to preach their warm Outlook still but, now calling it a possibility. Also, not wanting to admit they were sold the first Week of the Month would be warm. I like those guys personally and they're smart meteorologically speaking but, as with many have their biases and let that sway them. Update: Upon further investigation, I see where they're coming from and partially why the , mainly GEFS, is spitting out what it is irr late December. It has a Scandinavian Block setting up. That generally forces a +AO. However, that's being brought on by models interpretation of a reflective SWE and the rebound. Sometimes the Scandinavian blocks reteograde over into the AO Domain and flip it negative.

I see the AI model referenced frequently. Is this publicly available or behind a paywall?

FYI

they all happen around December 5 as well, so it has to happen!

I don't think that is look is a slam dunk, but nice to see 12z deterministic runs(across the board) show a great pattern. Ensembles are understandably slow to respond. I think a lot of the mean temps are skewed on the ensembles. There are 4-5 big ridges out of 20 members. The temps under those 4-5 members are skewing the mean. If those were tossed as outliers, the mean would be much colder. Hopefully, those warmer ensemble members begin to exit as we get closer...that could mean deterministic models may be closer to being right.

You guys are dumb

The kiss of death here The AI model seems to have a good beat on this one. Pretty consistent with the lead wave