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Everyone’s burnt out. Storm that was supposed to start tonight is waiting till Sunday lol

GFS looks like a pretty big outlier here

On lunch, but looked back at old photos. Took a pic of my little girl in Madisonville with trees down behind her and everything coated in about .25" of ice...timestamp says Feb 18, 2015. This setup has been reminding me of it for several days. Large part of county lost power for almost a week. It really stands out now, due to same wording was used then, as MRX is using now for Monroe Co. (We were excluded then from Ice Storm Warning and alot of residents let their guard down). There is a ridge between Tellico and Madisonville that seems to bank the downslope winds back toward Tellico...prolongs the cold air retreat NW of there. Forecast all the way until the event started was WWA (less than 0.10"). CAMs resolution doesn't pick this ridge up well...I know of their current projection map, they seem to have forgot this. Hopefully I'm wrong.

The Euro will catch on as soon as we get Jebman on board.

Quick question--was the Jan 6 2025 event progged to jack DC/Baltimore and places north 3 days out before slowly correcting and eventually jacking Fredericksburg? or am I imagining?

But 20 years ago this setup would never have pushed the mix line that far N and W as this one. And I understand this is more 700-800 mb layer stuff, but still. Yes, climo always N and W i agree. But when did i78 become the line? This is 4th or 5th time since 2018.

They actually just changed it to 8-12 on Sunday and 1-3 on Sunday night. So they have not backed off those totals yet.

In the timbers of FennarioThe wolves are runnin' 'roundThe winter was so hard and coldFroze ten feet 'neath the ground

What about NOVA

Nice 10-14 inches Lets go !

*clears throat* It's time for the obligatory... It's nowcasting time.

I think the 2000's/early 2010's really shifted perspectives to how climo actually is in this region... Philadelphia itself has only gotten a 10" or more snowstorm 31 times since 1883. Averages out to like 1 every 5 years. It really isn't a common occurrence, never was.

It's not good. Especially at this range. I would maybe use it closer in, in conjunction with other models. But weigh it very little and toss if an outlier.

Just got back from Portsmouth and Dover. It's a madhouse out there with all the pre-storm bread and milk gathering going on

This looks much better http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kpit

Crazy stuff. Maybe this is gonna be a wallop this time.

You know you’re doing well when you can assume at least a foot before it starts lol

It’s been my contention all week that a flat and fresh very cold 1035 high in a great position just does not get bullied and give it up

Funny you sent this. I’m headed there in like 15 min to pick up some of my buddy’s favorites.

That's why I wasn't hating on the suppressed looks early in the week. My weenie eyes have seen this movie too many times.

Sorry about the bad quality. But thought this was pretty insightful .

Bigger problem for North Georgia. In spring (when I wanna chase) it curls around and stabilizes everything. In winter the warm nose usually wins. Hey @jaxjagmanwe do have Day 3 Marginal in South Bama and text mentions tornadoes!

JMA gives the Triangle to the NW 1.5-1.8" qpf it's quiet in here

Met from other forum Trends overall today were for a slightly weaker primary which is good. We don't want it too weak for our area though or we will lose the precip max in SW PA showing up on some models.