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The early guidance on Invest 94 now shows a cluster of solutions indicating that the system could be approaching North Carolina in five days. Much can still change, as five day forecasts are subject to large errors. A near miss or out-to-sea solution remains viable.

Lightning and thunder for hours overnight .79

Very good call. It also looks dry as a bone which obviously is not good at all given the ongoing drought since the end of July

From all the modeling I’ve looked at the past few days, Thursday was always supposed to be the most widespread day.

Rain for the seed last night. Looks like a decent soaking coming up into tomorrow for many.

0.00"

About .4” yesterday.

I take back what I said, I didn’t realize he would chase into China. Looks strongly like he got the eye of a likely still major storm. Good for him this was a wild chase I can’t wait to see his videos

Favorite cocktail so far? Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Azores now under a hurricane warning. I wish someone was chasing there this should be a solid impact especially for a location that doesn’t really deal with many hurricanes

Looks like some good totals in parts of CT from 0.50-1.50”. Did DIT “congrats NNE” himself to another inch of rain?

Nice little nocturnal event, only .37” of rain

WB 6Z ATCF tracks for 94L.

Latest HWRF takes a cat 3 into NC from 94L

Fujiwhara type reaction. Very unique. Not sure what sort of impacts, if any, there would be.

Good cluster of t-storms entering RI now. Enjoy the big drink to all those out west! Def a few rumbles with those too.

Take a look at what happens on the 0z models in the western Atlantic. Two hurricanes form simultaneously and get very close to each other. It looks like high pressure will prevent the western one from moving up the coast but still, this could be a very rare situation to observe starting this weekend.

Interesting about Hurricane Gabrielle. Heated straight to Portugal. nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/240532.shtml?cone#contents

Heavy rain starting here now, looks juiced upstream. Had around 1.3 inches overnight last night.

Warmer October still look likely. Long range models have +EPO, which I have stressed is a connected -PDO pattern, strongly, in October. What I mean is the PDO as an independent variable, not connected to 0-time conditions and influenced by them. It's working for the 2nd year in a row, as the PDO has been strongly negative in both of those October's.

With a trough possibly in SE Canada at the time of closest approach no direct hit is definitely on the table.

I don't expect anything from these two tropical waves. They could become hurricanes but are likely out to sea.

No rain at home. 42 here this am!

I think we need to see how the next few weeks play out, but definitely true that most missed the early September peak of the season being historically dead.

Fantastic fall soaking. 1.2" of light to moderate rain over the past 36 hours.