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  2. Watch up until 5pm URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 643 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland Northern Virginia The Eastern West Virginia Panhandle Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 1140 AM until 500 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A well-organized thunderstorm cluster should continue to pose some threat for scattered damaging winds as it moves quickly southeastward this afternoon. Occasional hail may also occur with the strongest cores.
  3. Sorry but I cannot justify using a model that can’t even initialize the El Niño at its *current* initial state correctly.
  4. It's pitch black with torrential rain in Harrisburg. Copious lightning strikes had the construction crews scattering. Impressive 'lil MCS.
  5. Yep the youngest Ms. J just called me. She goes to Dickinson in Carlisle and is stuck in the dinning hall.
  6. I was expecting a lot more wind than I got given how that line looked. Not really windy at all
  7. From my amateur SPC mesoanalysis skills I think that our region might get a bit screwed from the storm complex, at least when it comes to maximizing our severe threat. The best shear looks to be to the northeast of our area, alongside the best ML lapse rates. The instability gradient additionally rides right along Baltimore. Think that MD might be able to cash in but I'd be worried about the storms riding that gradient if I was in NOVA.
  8. SE yes. But it does climo or better in other areas.
  9. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  10. That is one hell of a line of storms sinking south from PA.
  11. This is exactly why we will never break the records from years like 1936, 1953 and 1966. Mark my words Chris it will NEVER happen. We will have plenty of very hot summers, I fully expect next summer to be like 1983 and 2010, and get to the 100-102 range maybe three or more times, but the high end heat of 1936 (106 at Central Park) 1953 (102 in September, a mega heat wave of 2 weeks length), 1966 (107 at LGA, 104 at JFK) that will never happen again, at least not in our lifetimes. Obviously other regions will break their all time records because climate change means different things to different parts of the world and in different times of the year. Our springs haven't become hotter either. 1991 a pre el nino year had a spring much hotter than this year and the summer was hotter too.
  12. I’m in a windowless room this am and heard thunder and looked at radar. Holy smokes
  13. Thank you 40/70 my morning is now fulfilled. As always ….
  14. they are heading towards the more favorable for convection unstable warmer air on the other side of the front to the south - we are on the unfavorable for convection more stable northern side - most we will get - if that is a few showers
  15. Rather no rain and no clouds and no fog and pump all this moisture to Mars where they really need it. Hot sunny and clean blue skies and dry weather are the best.
  16. yep latest MCD from SPC says a downstream watch coming... that line certainly doesn't look like it's getting any weaker and the timing is pretty good since peak heating is a few hours away...
  17. 1991 had one of the hottest summers on record at both locations and NYC too. Matched just two summers later in 1993. What a historic week and day in 1953 we had! Much better than the crop soggy weather we have now. I dont like either my weather or my food to be soggy.
  18. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  19. Thanks, guys. You’re probably right—more climo and unstable environment than anything else. Really interesting to watch. Hopefully the folks down there are staying safe—I don’t recall any forecasts for FFE level rainfall.
  20. So much for that epic severe threat 4/5 days ago.
  21. That's a problem? Lancaster county (and others as well) has seen so much damage this summer. Homes with roofs ripped off, siding ripped off, trees into houses, etc. Enough is enough. I don't understand why not getting severe (damaging, by definition) is a disappointment.
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