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I'm going with 9-12" down here. I think the big city gets rocked. 12-15".

Monday is a little better too

We need the snow shield to be heavier/steadier. In 3 hours that NAM run surged the sleet line from Wilmington DE to Staten Island. The heavy precip is when it's sleeting. It would be varying snow rates for a few hours then all out sleetstorm for 60-70% of the precip that falls.

Simpsonville SC here

Is it spring yet?

I actually planned on doing a revised forecast tonight, but the models are not handling the HP out west well at all. I'll release a final call tomorrow at 18z.

Thanks

Down to 13 here

This storm has definitely sped up a bit both in onset time and ending time now that we’re getting into the near term forecasting of it, which is pretty common with these type of storms. It looks like the business end of this occurs in a bit under 24 hours now, arriving in the LSV approx 2-3am Sunday and starting to shut off midnight-1am or so Monday.

Yeah- I’ll be here giving an account of what happens, until power is lost. BTW, I am literally .25 mile north of 85 here in Greenville…

Talk about no change run to run lol.

Enjoy ice!

these can flip early in the wwa phase, and then have trouble flipping over when the dry air at the surface starts coming in. It ends up mostly non-accumulating stuff away from better banding N of pike, OES, terrain and so on. I lived near the south coast for a while, and I'm not saying that would be the case, but it's something to look for jmo. You may get 10" or 12" but "what could have been" is like 18" or 24" lol

It isn't actually, totals increased ex right on the coast Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

22 now. This cold means business

I guess we'll find out

And I may eat crow for saying that, but if one is merely model watchin and basin thoughts on 6 hr outputs, there are 5 more runs to consider, so buckle up. Some of us weenies throw a little more at it than that. In the end it may not matter but I don’t live and die by 6 hr outputs. I will not cut bait till 18z tomorrow.

I’m really hoping this pans out and I can get a foot. My girlfriend (who I met in 2021) moved up from Florida late 2018 or so and this would be the biggest storm she’s seen. Thought it would happen last year but Connecticut got crushed. I’m also hoping to see what the dogs reaction would be (if he cares). He’s coming the end and it would be cool to see if he would like it and go around in it with his doggy wheel chair

18.2/3.7

I broke down and looked at the MJO. Turns out, it is forecast to park itself in 8-1-2-3 through at least late January. It is in 6 right now - major winter storm in phase 6. File that one away for safe keeping. The Euro weeklies have a trough in eastern NA for Feb. Monster NAO block. EPO ridge....for most of February. Temps 7-9 degrees BN or Feb. Precip is listed as BN - good luck with that during Feb. If that verifies, that is a much different February than we have been used to of late. It fits w/ the weak La Nina and negative QBO analogs. Can we go 14-15...IDK? But 95-96 2.00-light would suffice.

Updated

Genetics spook.

100%

A high water content base after Sunday and a cold 30 day long range loaded like bear for future chances Not down at all over this

That's uh, wowzerz.