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@Ji do you have any historical data on when we usually see a major shift in the global models that typically lead to a fundamental change in snowfall forecast for our region? 48-72 hr range? 72-120 hr range? 120-200 hr range?

It was a brutal stretch here.

FWIW, the 6z RFS model which John uses is in the 6z GFS camp(shaky, shaky camp). It also handles the hp to the northwest of the system differently than the 0z Euro, but similarly to the 6z Euro. What the Euro is doing is basically settling into a seam between to highs to the north, one over New England and one over Montana. IF the Montana high is strong and bridges over to the New England high....the system slides on across. The 0z Euro completely lost the hp to the northwest of the storm...returned at 6z. I don't know. I am guessing that we are getting better sampling of the northern features as they get closer to us.

Back a few pages ... I've only seen the 00z GFS and GGEM solutions - those are pushing that it was always the 29/30/31st window. Again, the 26/27 is/was index valid, but the sweet range was ^ ...

Bamwx doing live broadcast on storm now.

When you looked in a mirror did you see tblizz?

I’ve been out to lunch. We in play here?

That is what I am hoping for in my backyard. And front yard, too. Would love to get a good thump of snow to begin with and if it does change hopefully it will be a mix of snow and sleet with no freezing rain.

Bottomed out at 3F down here, not bad! Had to break out my heavier down jacket for the first time in a while.

The ECMWF is parsing the area between SN and RA mostly as ZR, while the NAM/GFS is mostly IP and the CMC somewhere in between. Big difference between 1.5" QPF of ZR and IP.

No system-specific thread on this one yet, huh. What a superstitious bunch.

yep - unfortunate I feel this is going to be Dec 2002 all over again...potentially worse

Let's do it, this is what dreams are made of. It's what we've been waiting for.

yup, my location would be playing with fire on a canal track, but those on the right (correct) side of the mix line would do well. I'll take my chances. sorry, AEMATT

This is going to be the biggest snowstorm in a decade, and the consensus for a major to historic storm is robust. Also, you’ve been around long enough to see what other storms in the past 25 years have done. Know your climo and enjoy.

I mean....the differences w/ hp over the top(especially nw of the system) from 0z to 6z are pretty startling. It was gone at 0z and is back on 6z. I have no idea why it wasn't there at 0z, and no idea why it is back at 6z.

I’ve been reading the trend throughout the year is to deamplify as we lead into the event. Feel like that would help a ton of us tremendously. Only caveat here is how an STJ plays into that. Not sure we’ve had that hand in awhile dealt to the table.

The emojis give you your answer

Probably should be noted that a high amplitude 7 to 8 MJO progression in late January around the time of a strong shortwave is the thing forecasting nightmares are made of.

Weeklies show that clearly. Not only early February but through February.

Becker or Yeltsin?

With dew points likely low I wonder how soon the air will moisten up for snow to fall.

should get to your 100 by the end of Monday it seems, might need 3

The chance for some ice mixed with the snow seems to be increasing south of Winchester. The latest Canadian gives me 3 inches of sleet on top of 12 inches of snow on Sunday. The 850 temp. is well below freezing, but I creep up to 0c for about 3 or 4 hours at 700. My 10:1 is 12.8" this morning from 8 sources. Kuchera is 19.9. Oh well, sleet will only slow the melting process.

You have a better chance at a whiff than an ice storm