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  2. MN Transplant
    0.03” overnight and 0.07” in the noon hour. Really racking it up now.
  3. mgerb
    Noon Excessive Rainfall probs increased to the moderate range for PHL/NYC metro.
  4. yoda
    Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible this afternoon into this evening across parts of the Mid Atlantic, posing a risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. Large hail and isolated wind damage will be possible late today into tonight with severe storms from Nebraska into northwest Wisconsin. Scattered damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Deep South this afternoon into the early evening. ...Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic... Radar mosaic late this morning showed a couple of weak convectively related vorticity maxima moving east across the central and southern Appalachians (i.e., southwest PA, eastern KY). One of these lead disturbances was sampled by the WSR-88D VAD at Jackson, KY, with an upstream shortwave trough over the OH Valley moving towards the Mid-Atlantic states. The airmass across the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas will continue to heat amid patchy but thinning cloud cover. Model guidance shows moderate buoyancy developing by early to mid afternoon from the southern Appalachians northward into the northern Mid-Atlantic region. A belt of stronger 700-500 mb westerly flow (30-45 kt) will overspread the northern half of VA northward into PA/NJ. Beneath this stronger flow, southerly low-level flow veering and strengthening with height will support hodographs favorable for organized severe storms, including supercells and organized line segments. The latest model guidance shows a few simulated supercells developing in the area centered over MD and the upper Chesapeake Bay vicinity during the 20-00z timeframe. This scenario seems plausible given some low-level enlargement to the hodograph and effective shear around 40 kt. A tendency for upscale growth into a line segment is expected as this activity moves east towards the coast during the evening. A couple of supercell tornadoes are possible with this activity, in addition to a line-embedded mesovortex and scattered damaging gusts.
  5. Brian D
    Charted NOAA data for July. Easier to see what it looks like. Will put out Aug next month when data updates.
  6. vortex95
    It seems just E of I95 and just S and SE of the metro is always "in play!" The way I approach it now is, "is the area between a line from DCA and IAD and about 15 mi to the N in play b/c this area seems most variable and gets the shaft, relatively speaking, more often that not. Probably due to the location from things like downslope from the Appalachians, but it seems very dependent on the mean flow. W and WNW seems to be not good often (DC split), but of course, this is just a broad view. Subtle differences in the mesoscale can be huge.
  7. yoda
    Oh... um hello there CIG 1 hatching
  8. yoda
    Well thats interesting... 30%wind and 5% tornado moved westward, now includes DC metro on 1630z OTLK
  9. cbmclean
    This definitely tracks with OTG truth here. I am at 0.28" for the month. According to the RAH AFD, Raleigh east is in the crosshairs for tomorrow, we shall see. Just warning you guys ahead of time if it's a dud for me, I will whine a bit.
  10. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  11. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

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  12. Damage In Tolland
    Let’s keep wagons heading south
  13. Prismshine Productions
    -PNA +NAO Ehhhhhh... Can see occasional cold shots but they will be shallow and fleeting at best. Everyone in a +2.5-+4 winter Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
  14. mayjawintastawm
    Glad you experienced it! The clouds and light in the early mornings and evenings have been really spectacular the last few days. The rule of thumb of 4-5 degrees drop per 1000 feet works pretty well most of the time when planning. As ValpoVike wrote, snow can happen any time of year up there, though mid June through Labor Day it is seldom a driving problem. Only another 4 weeks till leaves start to change- and this year they may be early, not because of cold but because of drought stress.
  15. TauntonBlizzard2013
    This isn’t going to produce much for anyone. That’s clear
  16. Typhoon Tip
    yeah... no one's been told before that the NAM has a N-W biases beyond 24 hours... heh
  17. weatherwiz
    These are always tough because it depends on exactly where the front stalls and where the low pressure tracks. I've felt the past few days the GFS may be a bit too aggressive with Saturday...at least with northwest extent of the heavier rain. We'll probably see some showers around though given weak lift
  18. Snowlover11
    Congrats NYC, LI
  19. Kmlwx
    Qdoba > Chipotle
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I get it's too early to definitely say whether that will chance by the time that the winter season ensues, but the mid latitude ground truth relative to the development of past major El Nio events dictates that this definitely remains a work on progress.
  21. mahantango#1
    Flood Watch National Weather Service State College PA 1214 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026 PAZ012-041-042-045-046-049>053-057>059-065-066-210000- /O.EXB.KCTP.FA.A.0013.000000T0000Z-260821T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Clinton-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton- Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia- Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Lock Haven, Shamokin, Renovo, Williamsport, Selinsgrove, Harrisburg, Danville, Pottsville, Hershey, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Sunbury, York, Lebanon, Trout Run, Lewisburg, Laporte, and Lancaster 1214 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following areas, Columbia, Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Montour, Northern Clinton, Northern Lycoming, Northumberland, Schuylkill, Snyder, Southern Clinton, Southern Lycoming, Sullivan, Union and York. * WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Periods of heavy rain are expected this afternoon through the evening. Rainfall amounts up to 3 inches are possible. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
  22. Brian5671
    New GFS keeps most of it south of all of us Saturday
  23. donsutherland1
    Hopefully, the guidance will be accurate and the heaviest rains will avoid your area and others that have recently experienced flooding.
  24. Typhoon Tip
    Need the return of hemispheric seasonal gradient increase - the triggered machinery response ( wave spacing and speeds and jet location biases ..et all) will be conducted by the new maestro so to speak. Prior to that, all we have is WWBs and vague SS stressing differentiating SST pattern/morphology, happening amid a generic summer hemisphere that remains unresponsive. The gradient and the response/forcing of planetary wave modes come hand in hand
  25. ravensrule
    Are you at Chipotle?
  26. MANDA
    Feeling FAIRLY confident that my area of NW NJ will escape the heaviest event totals. Guidance has been targeting mainly along and east of I95 for max totals. Will have to watch radar over the next several hours. Key for NW NJ is where downstream convection starts to "ignite". Hopefully it will be near or east of BWI/PHL and then lift and/or train NE leaving NW NJ with just more frontal related rainfall but still with heavy downpours. Can deal with 1 or 2" out this way but 3-5" totals not good for this area. Still very wet out my way. Sitting at 5.5" for August to date here.
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