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all we need for an average spell in july is the strongest el nino in history

57.5 this morning

That looks like 65 mph damage, there were pockets of 80 in there from TDWR. Locally more damaging than the '12 derecho. I think the derecho only had 50-65 in the Pasadena / Rivera Beach area.

Jim Cantore thinks it is on its way to becoming Bertha: “Visible showing a nice twist with TD2 circulation center. There is lightning within the southern flank of that circulation. On its way to TS Bertha status.” https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/2079191019812192469

Today could rival some of the bigger diurnal recoveries since winter ended. Which is rare by the time we get to even June, let alone latter July... But it was 48 to 52 at a lot of these in-between lower el NWS sites on their interactive page, yet many of these sites are already up 25 F over those lows. No cloud/not enough to appreciably offset heating and still solar max lasing by a relentless sun... should be able to put up some 35+ deltas.

Could be one of only a few where August had more 90 degree days than July and only in 2021 (since 2010) has Jun / Aug had more 90 degree days than July. EWR at 6 currently Year July 90° Days August 90° Days Difference 2021 10 13 +3 2018 9 14 +5 2015 11 13 +2 Year June July August 2021 13 10 13

I did everything I could to summon the rain yesterday. I washed my car, put the sprinklers out on the lawn, even sprayed some herbicides. Got missed again.

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1DYFcRmg1G/?mibextid=wwXIfr A couple picture from an independent fire photographer from Saturdays storm damage in parts of Enola. as many storm related incidents i've been to in my career, i 've never seen this. These picture do no justice to how this looked at 11pm through 1am.When your highway dept plows a road of downed trees like they're plowing snow, you know it was bad.

Records: Highs: EWR: 101 (1980) NYC: 101 (1980) LGA: 101 (1991) JFK: 99 (2019) Lows: EWR: 59 (1997) NYC: 55 (1890) LGA: 62 (1997) JFK: 58 (1965) Historical: 1915: A record high temperature of 115 degrees occurred in Yosemite Valley at the National Park Headquarters, California (around 4,000 feet elevation). This reading was the warmest day in a streak of 7 consecutive days of 110 degrees or higher at Yosemite Valley from the 19th through the 25th. 1921: Montana registered its record maximum 24 hour precipitation as 11.50 inches of rain fell at Circle. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1930 - The temperature at Washington D.C. soared to an all-time record of 106 degrees. The next day Millsboro reached 110 degrees to set a record for the state of Delaware. July 1930 was one of the hottest and driest summers in the U.S., particularly in the Missouri Valley where severe drought conditions developed. Toward the end of the month state records were set for Kentucky with 114 degrees, and Mississippi with 115 degrees. (David Ludlum) 1934 - The temperature at Keokuk, IA, soared to 118 degrees to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1946: The temperature at Medford, OR soared to an all-time high of 115° to begin a two week heat wave. During that Oregon heat wave the mercury hit 100° at Sexton Summit for the only time in 40 years of records. (Extreme Weather p. 276, by Christopher C. Burt) 1953 - Twenty-two inches of hail reportedly fell northeast of Dickinson, ND. (The Weather Channel) 1975: Annandale, Fairfax County, VA 16 people were struck and injured while picnicking. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History) 1977: A flash flood hits Johnstown, Pennsylvania, on this day in 1977, killing 84 people and causing millions of dollars in damages. This flood came 88 years after the infamous Great Flood of 1889 that killed more than 2,000 people in Johnstown. 1986 - The temperature at Charleston, SC, hit 104 degrees for the second day in a row to tie their all-time record high. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather across Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 87 mph at Mosinee, WI, and strong thunderstorm winds capsized twenty-six boats on Grand Traverse Bay drowning two women. Thunderstorms produced nine inches of rain at Shakopee, MN, with 7.83 inches reported in six hours at Chaska, MN. Thunderstorms in north central Nebraska produced hail as large as golf balls in southwestern Cherry County, which accumulated to a depth of 12 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - The temperature at Redding, CA, soared to an all-time record high of 118 degrees. Showers and thunderstorms produced much needed rains from New England to southern Texas. Salem, IN, was deluged with 7.2 inches of rain resulting in flash flooding. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Showers and thunderstorms in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region soaked Wilmington, DE, with 2.28 inches of rain, pushing their total for the period May through July past the previous record of 22.43 inches. Heavy rain over that three month period virtually wiped out a 16.82 inch deficit which had been building since drought conditions began in 1985. Thunderstorms in central Indiana deluged Lebanon with 6.50 inches of rain in twelve hours, and thunderstorms over Florida produced wind gusts to 84 mph at Flagler Beach. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1993: Heavy rains caused flash flooding in the Black Hills of South Dakota. 2.5 inches of rain fell within 30 minutes causing flash flooding in the Lead/Deadwood area and the northern Black Hills. The rapid runoff from the rains also caused numerous mudslides. The mudslides were as deep as three feet on area highways and even washed out a few roads. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1993: Seattle, WA recorded their record maximum temperature of 100 °F which was also recorded on June 9, 1955. (Extreme Weather p. 278, by Christopher C. Burt) 1994: Several separate lightning bolts struck Camp Pickett, VA injuring seven officers. Two suffered serious injuries and had to be resuscitated several times. Most of the men were injured while inside tents with metal poles. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History) 1997: 32.54 inches of rain fell at Dauphin Island Sea Lab during the slow passage of Hurricane Danny. This set Alabama’s record 24-hour maximum precipitation record. In total 36.74 inches of rain was dumped by Danny here, 26 inches of which fell in just 7 hours the previous day. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2003: A hailstorm (had ping-pong to baseball size) damaged most houses and vehicles on the east side of North Platte Nebraska; $7 million damage. A woman was struck on her head by a large hailstone in the Wal-Mart parking lot. She had to be taken to the hospital for stitches. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2007 Accord Publishing, USA) 2005: Hurricane Emily made landfall in northern Mexico. When the central pressure fell to 29.43 inches of mercury, and its sustained winds reached 160 mph on the 16th, Emily became the strongest hurricane ever to form before August, breaking a record set by Hurricane Dennis just six days before. It was also the earliest Category 5 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic basin, beating Hurricane Allen's old record by nearly three weeks.

Low of 56. Beautiful.

74 / 54 gorgeous day today, low to mid 80s. Front boundary pushes north tomorrow with southerly flow , humid , storms and chance for the next >1 inche of rain. Im less enthused that we clear our or have such a nice Wednesday, i think the boundary / clouds / showers linger into Wed. The period Thursday through the coming weekend looks great - but still throw caution with the trough in place that systems and rain could materialize, but overall looking below normal through the 27th. Beyond there moderation warmer and hot close and overall warmer - hot as western heat comes east.

No measurable rain IMBY since last Tuesday. Opportunities look better this week. Here’s hoping they materialize…

Certainly can't disagree with that. As we've seen the past decade really is you can't trust a storm in the Gulf, especially with the OHC that builds going into the season.

Heh... that's probably PR. Being where it is, i.e. not being able to escape that region without hitting land, they can't afford to take chance. Sometimes these things'll fester for 4 days, while models keep prematurely spinning them up. Attention wanes... yeah yeah. Then, all at once on that 5th day, people 'had no idea' it was happening or was going to happen, but the inhibition that was poorly assessed all along, suddenly goes away, and it then m'fugger goes nuts. The PR in a situation like that is strategic. Keep 'em apprised with the headline (watch). What they can't do is be responsible for any statement that will invariably be interpreted by the Idiocracy as 'okay we don't have to worry' charter boats and tourism and no worries. For one, the Idiocracy wants to interpret that way ... To mention also, we live in a litigation-happy society that seems to excuse if not reward people for being Idiots. But I'm digressing Meanwhile, if nothing comes of it... Watch is no harm no foul.

Thank you for the clarification! I've seen more AFDs reference "WPC AI guidance" and was getting concerned it was becoming just plug and chug computer nonsense in the Mid and long range.

This isn't true at all. All NWS gridded forecasts use the NBM which combines lots of available computer models. For Days 4-7, WPC can make some minimal edits and get some input from WFOs, but they mostly leave the NBM alone. For Days 0-3, the WFOs can be a bit more heavy-handed, but they are still encouraged to limit their editing.

no good deadheads

Heat Adv out for today. Low 90's possible. Breezy SW winds will probably mix some Lake air in, so not sure we will hit 90. Missed out on rain this morning. Stayed N n S.

Beyond day 3 is generated using the NBM, but WPC is allowed to make some minor edits (with input from the local offices). It is NOT AI-based.

Absolutely. Today actually feels like summer yore. At least how I remember it.

Good stuff on TUTT's. It was essentially a TUTT that lead to this potential, but TUTTs are interesting in the sense that they can help with the initial phases but also can be very bad for TC genesis/strengthening in general. This system is certainly fighting stronger shear to the north and also ingesting some dry air. Despite the water temperatures, its really difficult seeing this take off or really becoming anything organized. I was pretty shocked to see TS watches fly but I guess I can sort of understand it because that allows certain protocols from local govt's to be activated. But this looks more like just some areas of heavy rain, scattered thunderstorms, and gusty winds...a.ka. a typical summer afternoon along the Gulf Coast. Seems like any greater storm impacts are going to be confined to the open waters.

LOT can smell it Thus far, the new activity near the Minnesota and Iowa border has remained largely cellular and disorganized. However, have noted evidence of a southward push of the overall complex (a recent 28kt wind gust at an AWOS station out of the north under one of the cores). Accordingly, current thinking is that there should still be a southward propagation to the new development into northern Iowa in the coming hours and perhaps as far south as central or even southern Iowa by mid-morning, much in line with prior thinking. Will also have to watch if there is any expansion of trailing thunderstorms across west- central Minnesota as it would also be poised to move southward along the instability axis into northern Iowa later this morning. With all of this in mind, still do see an off-ramp from a severe weather day in our local area in the form of a prohibitive "wall" of stable air in Iowa left over from early- day thunderstorms that blocks the surface-based instability axis from arcing northeastward into northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin later this afternoon. With all of that said, would be remiss to ignore the possibility that the early-day thunderstorms largely fall apart by daybreak and/or have a much more limited footprint than currently expected. Exploring the scenario where the instability axis does reach (at least part of) our area later today, the kinematic wind field would still be very favorable for severe weather and support supercells and bowing clusters with a threat for all hazards. There could very well be more than one round of storms with a mid-afternoon round tied to a subtle lead impulse embedded in the northwesterly flow on the eastern edge of the instability axis and another round later in the evening and overnight period tied to the dominant upper-level wave. It is worth noting the HRRR is stubbornly persistent in showing this scenario today.

July 20 1951: A tornado hits Minneapolis and Richfield, killing five people. 1909: 10.75 inches of rain falls in 24 hours at Beaulieu in Mahnomen County. This record would stand for over 50 years. Bagley receives an estimated 10 inches. For Monday, July 20, 2026 1930 - The temperature at Washington D.C. soared to an all-time record of 106 degrees. The next day Millsboro reached 110 degrees to set a record for the state of Delaware. July 1930 was one of the hottest and driest summers in the U.S., particularly in the Missouri Valley where severe drought conditions developed. Toward the end of the month state records were set for Kentucky with 114 degrees, and Mississippi with 115 degrees. (David Ludlum) 1934 - The temperature at Keokuk, IA, soared to 118 degrees to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1953 - Twenty-two inches of hail reportedly fell northeast of Dickinson, ND. (The Weather Channel) 1986 - The temperature at Charleston, SC, hit 104 degrees for the second day in a row to tie their all-time record high. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather across Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 87 mph at Mosinee, WI, and strong thunderstorm winds capsized twenty-six boats on Grand Traverse Bay drowning two women. Thunderstorms produced nine inches of rain at Shakopee, MN, with 7.83 inches reported in six hours at Chaska, MN. Thunderstorms in north central Nebraska produced hail as large as golf balls in southwestern Cherry County, which accumulated to a depth of 12 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - The temperature at Redding, CA, soared to an all-time record high of 118 degrees. Showers and thunderstorms produced much needed rains from New England to southern Texas. Salem, IN, was deluged with 7.2 inches of rain resulting in flash flooding. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Showers and thunderstorms in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region soaked Wilmington, DE, with 2.28 inches of rain, pushing their total for the period May through July past the previous record of 22.43 inches. Heavy rain over that three month period virtually wiped out a 16.82 inch deficit which had been building since drought conditions began in 1985. Thunderstorms in central Indiana deluged Lebanon with 6.50 inches of rain in twelve hours, and thunderstorms over Florida produced wind gusts to 84 mph at Flagler Beach. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Observances: 20 Mon World Jump Day 20 Mon International Chess Day 20 Mon National Moon Day 20 Mon Moon Landing Anniversary 20 Mon Moon Day 20 Mon National Fortune Cookie Day 20 Mon National Lollipop Day 20 Mon National Ugly Truck Contest Day 20 Mon Space Exploration Day 20 Mon National Pennsylvania Day

Wow. That is crazy only being maybe 3-4 miles away