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  2. Yeah I'm very worried about the tropical season this year due to the super El Nino developing and the Atlantic La Nina popping up. Doesn't mean we can't inch out a tropical system or two making their way through PA but those chances are massively decreased this year. Now if we weren't in such dire drought conditions it wouldn't be much of an issue but that's usually a saving grace at any other time. The 2026 atlantic hurricane season could be as quiet as the 2015 season was which was extremely inactive. In 2015 we had 4 hurricanes and 11 tropical storms which was also another super El Nino year. Though I don't think we were worrying about rain that year according to the drought monitor data from that summer so it wasn't such a big issue. Here's hoping we get lucky with a storm or two despite the low activity.
  3. warmer version of 97/98
  4. Exactly. I don't have high hopes, but see what happens. We had 2 good ones in a row-so whatever we get is gravy in my book
  5. This system is now self-sustaining, positive feedback with the standing wave and is just going to continue strengthening, warming and maintaining the convection/westerly flow
  6. "the heat feels less hot later in summer" is something i've never heard a normal person say
  7. what a weird tropical storm surface low by Louisiana convective storm far south
  8. I was kidding obv. I take things 2 weeks at a time. It might be a consistent 2 weeks of garbage come winter, but we will see.
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    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  10. Strong tropical forcing can disrupt the PV. However if the Arctic is mild there's less cold air to deliver. My thinking is a couple sharp but very brief cold snaps. Otherwise split flow may included a wonky northern stream but steady southern stream.
  11. El Nino and its atmospheric response seem to be locking in and digging in. Of course we'll still have ebb and flow like anytime. For example August may start with a heat burst to the East coast that gets us. Otherwise it's mainly just the Mid South getting baked (early next week again).
  12. For an illustration on how Phoenixville has changed over time (Source: Berkeley Earth): These changes mean that simply using raw data across time creates an "apples-to-oranges" comparison when it comes to data integrity. Notice the larger difference in warming trend between the raw data and region and much closer figure between the breakpoint-adjusted data and the region. That's very close to the observed warming for Chester County and Pennsylvania for the 1895-2025 period: The raw data (0.11°C/century) is the clear outlier. That divergence from the regional and statewide data illustrates the flaws in treating a station's record identically despite breakpoints, station moves, etc.
  13. Today
  14. "Only" 2.70 so far in Wilson. Looking at the radar, looks unlikely I make it to 3.00", which would be a bit of a disappointment. Still great though. At 4.39" for the week and 6.47" for the month
  15. Yeah probably not a lot of swampazz this summer. Just a lot of 50s and 60s dews from now through Jan.
  16. currently riding this ridge roller being sold by the goofus want to believe classic
  17. I picked up 0.42" on Tuesday night about 30 minutes after the start of the dry lightning storm, and 0.80" on Wednesday. Today looks like a repeat of yesterday, so really pleased so far. After today, it looks like a couple of days of limited moisture up here then rain chances go up again Sunday thru most of next week.
  18. 15-16 incoming...hopefully we get a blizzard during the 3 week winter
  19. so much for your epic torch July
  20. Kinda off topic but I saw Cecily Tynan post she has big personal news to announce at 6PM. Wonder if she is going to ABC News?
  21. Yea…any sustained heater is more towards mid-Aug and by then we are on the backside so the bite isn’t as hard anyway.
  22. I take that back, it moved from drought 1 to abnormally dry and it didn't count the 1.3 inches of combined rain I got Monday and yesterday, since it was actual measured rain through 8am Monday.
  23. This week's drought monitor didn't really change for my area despite around 3.5 inches of rainfall since it last came out. Surprised by that. Remained abnormally dry.
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