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Both years still showing up and idea I shared earlier in this thread if a 30-45 day pronounced cold run is still in play. By the end of Dec (29-31) we will be at 30 days and will see if it extends further Don’t worry about model confusions, Christmas 20-27 will not be a torch

Yeah I posted that earlier. Was waiting to see if someone got my Robocop reference lol. Euro op was good for the cranberry bogs. At least it didn’t vanish.

This will be verification

op skynet looks good.

How many ways can we find to avoid plowable snow in Boston?

Looks fine to me...even around MA Pike

It wasn't a full reversal.

I’d be fine with 3” of snow this weekend between the two systems. Just give us something.

The EPO plays pretty big factor in this as well, surprised he doesn’t mention it. After it takes a major dip the rest of this week behind tomorrow’s system all ensembles have it reversing to a pretty positive regime by later next week getting into Christmas week, setting up the period where we may moderate. Ensembles do show the very persistent -WPO regime in a pretty classic representation of such with major ridging centered on the Bering Sea throughout. This helps establish cold continental source region of the airmass into Canada. In combo with a -EPO that’s a good recipe for dumping cold over most of the eastern 2/3s of the lower 48.. which is what we see coming up the next 6-10 days. EPO in its negative phase promotes more ridging into the west coast of the US up into Canada and Alaska, and a stronger jet/lower heights into the western US in its positive phase. It has high correlation to anomolous temps cold (negative) and warm (positive) in our neck of the woods. A split in the teleconnections with a -WPO/+EPO makes for a bit less certainty. If teleconnection forecasts are right with the switch to a solid +EPO we’ll have a good bit of Pac modified air injected into the pattern but also still plenty of cold in Canada. Another factor to pair with +EPO here is AO/NAO also being forecast to be positive, which implies lower heights nearer to the pole and a contraction of cold air press into the CONUS. So there is a pretty solid case for moderation here because while there is plenty of cold available in Canada this combo probably sets up a high zonal flow across the US. I don’t necessarily see us torching but I see it more as a detriment in terms of storm track (low track running north of PA) since we have had a northern branch dominated regime and next to no southern stream influence so far in the early going. It might still roughly reflect a P8 MJO regime in the temp department, but that alone doesn’t put the white gold on the ground. So we’ll see how that evolves, in the meantime we will continue to be cold for the next week or so with the opportunity for at least another light snow event or two, with the Saturday night/Sun wave showing the best promise. There won’t be much moisture associated but that particular wave will have pretty cold air set in place, and a couple of tenths of QPF could easily turn into a 2-5” type event.

His field vision is horrible this year. He can't check off the primary receiver and hit someone who is usually wide open and camping out right in front of him in the middle of the field...usually Goedert.

Actually a nice look for SE MA.

12/5 3.5” 12/8 5.5” Total: 9” Powhatan

not really worth it to look at OP models beyond day 5 really....too erratic once you get past that range and the solutions often change dramatically from run to run

Yeah. It is a different look in the long range from the overnight runs. GFS ops looks to dump the cold more in the west versus locked up in Canada. But teleconnections show the NAO heading negative during that time while the PNA looks like its headed positive. Who knows?

Yeah we are not here for repeated torchmas shit from you

Ain’t much Sunday. Light and north of last run.

I think we can juice that up. There were some improvements at 500

I bottomed out at 15 this morning right around sunrise and that was the lowest since my Janury 21 - 23 triple single-digit temps of 8F, 6F, and 8F, where the dp bottomed out at 1. Currently sunny and 30 with dp up to 8. I just saw a news blip that since the state of NJ declared a Drought Warning, they are asking folks to conserve water. Looks like it's drying up quick in western NJ and eastern PA.

Euro is meh for Sunday again

UKMET completely lost the storm for this weekend squashes it down south. I don't understand how these models work, if it shows rain a week from now it'll be the truth and it'll rain next week. but any snow even 3-4 days it'll somehow suppress the storm, inland run it and show rain or just squash it completely. Very tough for snow weenies nowadays! I am looking for a new hobby in the meantime maybe buying some cryptocurrencies may be in the works

I put as much stock in the day 16 GFS as I put in a preseason college football ranking… That being said there is a signal for a warmup that week but with MJO stuck in phase 8 I would be shocked if it was anything but a brief warmup before a front. We will see

Euro still light event Friday

Sounds like there is one continuos supply of cold air, and not cutoff from any one region?