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  2. Also, my point forecast for Lancaster just updated to 100% chance of snow on Saturday with Heavy Snow possible. It's go time.
  3. I am out on the Ledge again just because DC is not gonna get deep powder snow on top of the Glacier. Too bad the Reaper is retired. Damn.
  4. For those who might be interested, here’s my latest projections for 25 select locations along the east coast: https://x.com/tbrite89/status/2017125164824100896
  5. Well the friggin' NBM finally came back to earth once the SREFs tanked, but it's time lagged, so it won't die for at least another model cycle.
  6. Wilmington has historically averaged 1.6” yearly dating back to 1870. That said, most years we see nothing, so it’s rare to even get the climatological average from one storm. The last time Wilmington saw a 6” accumulation was during the Christmas blizzard of 1989 (a little over 36 years ago)!
  7. It looks like we go back into a northern stream dominated pattern again next week. Like we just saw in December
  8. I’ve been wondering that. I remember 1994 was cold, but not sure about the length of the cold stretches.
  9. Looking at the forecast winds for the mountain/foothills zones, would not be shocked if a Blizzard Warning is issued at some point. The wind gust and light fluffy snow is right on the cusp of MRX's criteria.
  10. Assuming the input data keeps flowing, at the pace we are seeing, AI and machine learning will absolutely crack the weather code to the point that humans won't need to interpret much and the forecasts will be as optimal as possible, and soon-ish. As far as who cashes in on it, I don't know. The data is certainly extremely valuable. Anyway, back to snow in Tennessee! Sorry for the diversion.
  11. Worth a shot...once they figure out how to incorporate AI completely, they will privatize the NWS imo. Just the revenue alone all these half-wit social media pages are generating all is enough to get Big Brother Corporations watching.
  12. Rivers are always more risky just b/c of how currents impact freeze up. Some of the tidal areas could be walkable in a matter of days, as well as any fast ice on shores of Chesapeake. Walking on some part of the bay is on my bucket list so I will be reporting on that when it's at least conceivably safe lol
  13. As a GIS nerd I'm gonna give away for free a multi-million dollar idea, super simple. Track verification scores of all weather models. For any given setup, query a set of historical analogs. Assess which weather models verified best in those analog lead-ups. Weight current models accordingly for current situation NBM. There, not perfect but grounded in science and a helluva better blend than what we are seeing today! I'd like 5% of the revenue from the startup that cashes in on that idea please.
  14. I can’t count how many people at my workplace have said it’s not going to snow. Only a fraction of the population will buy into this thing.
  15. The IDSS forecast for IMBY almost doubled in the past hour. (1 mile from exit 424 of I-40) 7.7" snowfall from .41 precip
  16. Not sure if they are in the middle of updating them or what, but Tellico and Sweetwater are 1-2, Madisonville is 2-5.
  17. The use of so many bad models but not the Euro Op is crazy. Especially since they use the GFS op. I'm not sure that there is actual human involvement in it though. I think it simply blends the models noted on the dashboard and spits out outdated material.
  18. Putting down pre-emergent on top of snow when the soil temps are nowhere close to 55 degrees is just wasting money.
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