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Down to 4 here now to 12 / 5. Sub 20 high today, olver cold into the beyond with some moderation perhaps to or above freezing for some Mon - Wed before next reinforcing shot of cold with arctic front / clipper in the Thu / Fri timeframe with next stronger cold 2/6 - 2/8. Another system pegged for the period of 2/11 - 2/13-14 period.

NAM looks good.

Looks like gonna crank in a bit

Heh yea, but I would say that this event is a lot less complicated than others.

I assumme some heavy banding occurs We will know where when it occurs..............

12z FV3 it’s nice for Western North Carolina. That upper level low just sits and pivots.

Thank you brother. Looking forward to riding this one out with you.

So far this year I should say, feb is looking cold .

It's very much real per a friend in Clintwood and imby. Hope it works down toward yall quickly. @BuCoVaWx @Kentucky How's it looking?

I’d bet it’s just noise, if the euro decreases amounts for us at 12z then I’d get concerned. Either way this is gonna be the best event all year imo .

Remember that post you made about how someone was going to be very wrong about the PV, which I followed up with a comment about how I've been schooling Webb?

8° at KBOS this morning, WC -11°. With the sun angle it didn't even feel that bad. (I think a lot of it is that we're kind of getting used to it.) Today is 6 days at BOS <30°. 9 is likely by Sunday, which would be tied for 11th longest. The record at or below 32° is 16 days. Neither the Euro or GFS has BOS breaking 32 through the end of the model, which if it verified would break that record by a lot. (Thanks goodness we got that storm last week or we'd have cold, mostly-brown conditions which would be miserable.)

I personally appreciate your continued inputs, comments and obs...please keep 'em coming, if you have the time.

Well you’re a met, I take what you say seriously. Imma track obviously. The Euro just spooked me.

my cousin lives in Wilmington, NC they're supposed to get around 5-7 inches apparently

MSP eeked out a low of -1 this morning. We’ve now had a low temperature at or below zero for 14 of the past 15 days.

It is hard to believe we are nearing the start of this event. May the odds be ever in our favor. I am ready to go mobile if I have to in order to get into the FGEN band if it decides to miss my area.

Praying for your wife This storm always has had the potential for banding. In this case, short range models will begin to pick up on this. In addition, where banding sets up will also allow for subsidence on each side, or the sinking of air. This causes drying which means that areas next to high totals could have much lower totals themselves. This is a common feature of very strong mid latitude storms and nearly impossible to predict. That withstanding, global models (with less resolution) will normally smooth out the QPF forecast, whereas short range models will attempt to showcase where these bands set up. This is because globals have a lower resolution and therefore the algorithm will not be able to as readily differentiate banding and this will smooth, or average, out the precipitation forecast over its grid (boxes of resolution, ie 12km, 3km resolution, etc etc). Short range models - or CAMS - have a higher resolution and will thus alter precipitation forecasts more, which is where you usually see the qpf (precip forecast) changing.

Keep the mojo mojoing. Battleground area bound to be around triangle with maybe a dream set up east of triangle. However, I could see battleground area shifting slightly more NW based on overnight changes in runs. Snow on top of the existing ice in Triad and then refreezing should be fun. Good luck and be safe everyone!

Just a snow accumulation forecast

That's a great post, especially for those of us who are novices and lurk here to feed off the info from those of you who are much more knowledgeable. Thanks for taking the time to educate us!! It is greatly appreciated.

12z HRRR isn't as juiced. Looks decent still but is this just noise or a trend? I'm still riding with the Euro. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

nam looks more east with the low similar to 0z

Lotta local Mets going Stein