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I dropped from 12.0" to 7.5" Kuchera with the GFS family from 7 am - 1 pm. This rate of fall needs to slow down for the 18z run.

I gotcha! Yeah... I see the Adam's trucks around swain and graham. I only see dot around macon and Jackson

we would probably be 20:1 ratios right?

So, the overall message is this: there is a better-than-even chance of virtually no snow from this system anywhere in our forecast area. the worst-case scenarios (10 percent of the overall model runs) would bring such snows as far west as Morgantown and Uniontown, with warning-level snow in Tucker County. Overall trends favor a continued decrease in probabilities of the higher snow totals, but this of course will be monitored for any changes. National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 149 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Chances of flurries and light snow into tomorrow have increased a bit, with accumulations remaining under an inch in most cases.

We need some wholesale shifts, given that the ensembles are tightening up - expected as the timespan lessens. Basically we need factors that will induce whole ensemble shifts. Not impossible but time is running out.

Cautiously optimistic this will be my first double digit storm of the season. Only has to hold for 4 more days. Leo and i watch...lol

That -37 on the NJ map is probably two nearby locations with lows of -3 and +7.

hoosier was kicked from the board, think it was last winter (?).

Didn't I read someone say that strong cyclones tend to move more N than forecast due to the earth's rotation or something like that? Some people mention land interaction, hugging the coast, etc. (re: like hurricanes). It may have not been in this forum.

The thing to realize about dew points in this range is that the difference in water vapor between 10F and 0F is between bupkis, and slightly less than bupkis. Once you get down to negatives you're in "absolute bupkis" territory. That is to say that radiational cooling will absolutely tank the temperatures (and therefore dew points) if given the chance to do so. The snow does not provide a meaningful level of water vapor pressure to counter the radiational cooling. The only thing that will stop radiational cooling is a blockage of the long wave infrared energy to space (ie. Clouds or Fog).

This actually happens in all models. At hour 66 they are initiating cyclogenisis in the Bahamas in response to the southern stream energy moving through the gulf. This then rips northeast ahead of the northern stream bowling ball paving the way for the escape e-ne.

that sounds so much like a plate with cheese and olives!

Wouldn’t say it’s likely to happen but it’s not impossible.

Not much spread there. Consensus in the mean

Came across this over on Southernwx

This isn’t our storm. but if forced we would take it. but I hope youse get it

Yeah ok 14 that's right.

HH did lock it, but that run up in modeling had steady positive trends almost in its entirety. This one hasn’t had that at all. I get SWFE is easier to predict, but this has felt opposite. Tip started the thread and it was biblical, we’ve been slip sliding away ever since.

DT-WxRisk‬ ‪@wxrisk.bsky.social‬ · 1h WED AM UPDATE ON FRI - SAT NC VA DELMARVA se New England SNOWSTORM youtu.be/TP5lGA9wl24 last few runs GFS MODEL still has blizzard for Nc/ va / Delmarva - Thats is BS. BUT good chance of a significant snow -maybe 10" in NE NC / Norfolk metro ..several inches RIC LYH ROA GSO DAN.

There's a CNE NNE vibe that is funny. Looks good for ESNE perhaps but just pay attention

yeah, I've seen it when it's snowy there. Beautiful thing

when you live in the little orange area just south of Wilmington...

Euro joins the ULL mountain focus and a late blooming coastal solution. It and weathernext are locked in.