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I won’t be surprised if sleet makes it up to this area for an hour or two

This was my concern for us. Getting in on the first wave but missing the second. Needed both to get the big totals.

Even though NWS counts sleet as snow for purposes of total accumulations, is there a different WSW criteria for sleet vs. snow? Hard to imagine three inches of pure sleet would merit a WWA lol

It looks to me like even in the Middle TN area that things will warm enough to go to rain on Sunday with very little wrap around anything, which is good I guess, we need the moisture, would have liked to have had snowcover on the landscaping for the real cold stuff but what can you do?

From our Mid-Atlantic neighbors: Bob Chill Posted just now @Buddy1987and other swva peeps. Trend overnight has been modest improvements in the mid levels and more snowfall pushing to even just south of the NC line. Best guess for the the area inside of I81, Rt29, Rt460 and Rt40 is 4-8" of snowfall, 2-3" of sleet, and .25-.50zr. 460 area will do the best and my area around rt40 has more bust potential. I'd like to say I'm safe for 3" of snow with a best case 6" but sleet lines almost always mean business moving north. Luckily the trend has been towards a more cohesive precip field when the getting is good. I liked the 0z&6z euro for our yards. Modest improvements where it counts the most. Globsl models are getting close to their final consensus solution and changes will prob be small going forwards

In events like this, the warm nose tends to push up the Jersey coast and then up the Hudson. So Westchester might mix while interior NJ and NY stay all snow. More concerning to me today is the potential dry slot Sunday night.

1/23 12z NAM

Hey, can you still be reached at 877-cash-now?

It's the NAM, but it does seem a touch cooler so far

so you think im sitting pretty good in Northern Westchester?

@Buddy1987and other swva peeps. Trend overnight has been modest improvements in the mid levels and more snowfall pushing to even just south of the NC line. Best guess for the the area inside of I81, Rt29, Rt460 and Rt40 is 4-8" of snowfall, 2-3" of sleet, and .25-.50zr. 460 area will do the best and my area around rt40 has more bust potential. I'd like to say I'm safe for 3" of snow with a best case 6" but sleet lines almost always mean business moving north. Luckily the trend has been towards a more cohesive precip field when the getting is good. I liked the 0z&6z euro for our yards. Modest improvements where it counts the most. Global models are getting close to their final consensus solution and changes will prob be small going forwards.

where? there’s gonna be a foot of snow downstate. that’s not an east coast pattern.

Wasn’t expecting the snow today. Small tiny flakes but pretty good intensity

So far with the 12Z Nam I like the trajectory of the precip inbound at 28hrs. HP in a slightly better position as well. Light returns trying to spill over the mountains. 5h also looks different in a good way as well to back up surface reflection.

It is interesting that the HRRR models 850 as the more aggressive warm nose. Guess that would be worse for FRZA because there is less time for it to refreeze? Probably also not worth overanalyzing.

yeah 287 all the way down into Middlesex County NJ

To me the biggest question of the storm is now QPF. Is this in the 0.75” range (CAMs) which would no doubt cause issues but not anything like some of the 1.5-2” outputs we’d been seeing on the globals. There is a huge gap between those sets of guidance and that will dictate whether this is a memorable ice storm or just a sloppy mixed bag with moderate amounts of each precip type

the show had been over up here, but surprised to see the gfs clean house to this degree.

Here are the latest 48-hour ensemble-based probabilities through 7 AM Monday (from NW to SE / Mercer County to Tucker County): 15":15-55% 12":50-75% (up from 30-70%) 8": 75-90% (up from 60-90%) 6": 85-95% (up from 80-95%) 4": 90-100% (up from 85-99%) This is from the discussion this morning. They do mention lower ratios as the warm air intrudes from south to north. Something to keep in mind, but definitely the reason for that sharp cut off on the 06z euro kuchera

Yeah, I know that the signal has been there, it’s just rich to see TT more interested in a fantasy event at this range than a big dog in his backyard.

Agree 8ish seems most likely. That can change though

I think that is closer to 287 but we’ll see.