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Yeah, the last time a clipper really worked out was the one in January 2005, which turned into a Nor'easter.

Its good to see you've come over to the dark side with me. 6 years plus since detroits seen a storm over 8 inches I think.

Seems the difference between the GEFS dumping the trough out west as opposed to the EPS is the handling of the MJO. While the EPS is essentially in the COD, GEFS is moving to phase 6.

That happens in just about any la nina December in years ending in 5 or 0. 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010 were all very cold and snowy Decembers. Even 2020, which was near normal temperaturewise, had a big snowstorm in the middle of the month.

Yup. Dusting here as well.

Not bad trends overnight to continue to pull everything east in the medium term.

can confirm a dusting of snow overnight here.

Sucks, because the fantasy snow has been coming to fruition.

Pretty sure this is the coldest I’ve ever seen it snow—very fine flakes under partly cloudy skies at -1.6/-5.0. Not diamond dust. Maybe some moisture from the epic LES off Ontario made it this way. Regardless, very cool.

Im sort of bummed it clouded up last night. Hit 3.9⁰ around 11 before the clouds rolled in, it was definitely going below zero....ended up with a dusting, just enough to have the plows run up and down the neighborhood....the pack is still sled worthy, so all is good here. Kids are having a blast, they were out for hours sledding after sundown because the moon was so bright.

Best part about it is we all understood what he was saying

0.2° Coldest I saw was a -26° up by the NH/VT/QB border.

Phoenix is a high profile city in a rapidly warming region. A focus on Phoenix with respect to the region's changing climate makes good sense. A warming climate leads to an increased frequency of warm temperature records, all other variables notwithstanding. Additional variables include synoptic patterns and the urban heat island effect. Overall, the climatic warming is not unique to Phoenix. Moreover, despite misinformed social media efforts following Phoenix's August-record 118° temperature, the siting of the thermometer is irrelevant. The site has been certified and it is one of only a handful with a backup sensor to assist with validation. It also has an outstanding NWS office that is exceptionally responsive to possible issues when they occasionally arise. Some temperature trends in Phoenix, Tucson, Flagstaff, Arizona, and the Southwest are below. Phoenix is in line with Arizona's major cities and not out-of-line with either the entire state of Arizona or the Southwest, which include many rural areas. The modest differences suggest that most of the recent warming is now being driven by the region's changing climate, not factors specific to Phoenix.

A large portion of the West had their warmest December on record. But none of the areas in the East that were cold approached their coldest December on record. This has been a common theme in recent years with the warm departures being more impressive than the cold departures on a month to month basis. Climatologist49 ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬ Follow December 2025 temperature ranking (since 1895). A lot of the West had their warmest December on record and nearly everywhere out west had a top 5 warmest December. 10:26 PM · Jan 1, 2026 Everybody can Climatologist49 ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬ Follow The month-to-date temperature departure from normal for the Contiguous U.S. is +3.9F. If this is how the month ends, December 2025 would finish as the 4th warmest December on record (1895-present). 4 of the top 5 would include 2021, 2023, 2024, and 2025. It's as if something has changed. 11:47 AM · Dec 29, 2025 Everybody can

EPS-AI remains by far the best looking in the D10-15 range for pattern. EPS is good, but not as good. GEFS and GEPS have turned the good pattern into a cold front passage and then dump the trough right back out west and pump the SE ridge. They all have the EPO ridge develop but the precise ridge axis and the strength of any NAO ridging is really important to our sensible outcome

Wait you aren't excited for tomorrow nights .1-.3" lol

It could be, but those living by the operationals and quoting output two weeks out I just asking for disappointment one way or the other. Of course there's the one on here who only shows up to twist the knife about the warmth...

Fresh coat of snow overnight. 22F

It gets to be annoying. No real pack other than fluff that melts in the sun. Doesn’t have to be a 2 footer, just something other than 3” of fluff over bare ground.

Cartopper with some flakes still falling. 20F

bottomed out at 5.7 with a nice fresh snow, little dusting overnight was unexpected but take anything at this point, and agreed, we need a monster if only to get spirits up, and get closer to climo, which a lot haven't seen in a long time

Your average January monthly max since 2009 has been 56°. So that is 4° cooler than Newark. The equivalent for you not reaching 50° in January at Newark is under 46°. The last time your area didn't make it to 46° in January was also 2009 when Montgomery only topped out at 43°. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP, NY JAN Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 56 56 2025 48 48 2024 55 55 2023 62 62 2022 52 52 2021 46 46 2020 65 65 2019 55 55 2018 64 64 2017 58 58 2016 62 62 2015 49 49 2014 58 58 2013 60 60 2012 59 59 2011 49 49 2010 59 59 2009 43 43 Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 60 60 2025 54 54 2024 61 61 2023 66 66 2022 59 59 2021 53 53 2020 70 70 2019 59 59 2018 64 64 2017 67 67 2016 65 65 2015 56 56 2014 61 61 2013 66 66 2012 64 64 2011 52 52 2010 59 59 2009 48 48

Light snow 1-2" with snow pack and cold are always welcome, but we need a benchmark crusher.. or a meaty overrunning event

Fresh coating two days in a row

Likely more accurate than the NAM.