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  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, I misunderstood....right. I agree with that. It was obvious. As far as the ELI goes.....it's really not even worth arguing bc it's a moot point this season, anyway given the degree of warmth in the basin. That being said, if anyone uses that index exclusively to assess ENSO orientation moving forward, there will undoubtedly be issues....although that can probably be said about any particular metric.
  3. bluewave
    Latest Euro update has the Nino 3.4 ONI values peaking around +4. The Nino 1.2 ONI values are now approaching +5. The longer range plumes have Nino 1+2 remaining elevated into next spring and summer.
  4. aldie 22
    Moderate rain now...looks like my area lucked into this batch
  5. GaWx
    Yesterday’s 12Z CFSv2 run has the AAM at 4+ for all 4 members simultaneously for only the 2nd run I’ve ever seen! This has that on day 15 (Aug 18th) although it is just for that one day. The only other run that I’ve seen with all 4 members at 4+ at the same time is the 8/1/26 12Z run and it didn’t have that til way out only 3 days from the end of the run (day 32 or 9/1/26)! @snowman19 12Z 8/4/26 CFSv2 AAM: all >4 on 8/18/26
  6. Damage In Tolland
    I thought he meant this week or something
  7. LakePaste25
    This is like me saying you don’t agree it’s east based because you don’t like using the ELI. I simply didn’t like how the MEI was a limited dataset nor did I need to wait for this monthly updated to figure out it was coupled.
  8. aldie 22
    Nice steady rain currently
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    You don't feel that ENSO is coupled with the tropics right now? I guess we can agree to disagree, then. I prefer a to use all of them TBH, and they all imply the same thing...ENSO is driving the tropics attm.
  10. LakePaste25
    We can agree to disagree. SOI, VP anomalies, and OLR anomalies will also tell me if it’s coupled and I much prefer using those. I’m just not a fan of using it.
  11. CoastalWx
    We just had 2 weeks of BN.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    There is definitely a correlation....obviously the mid latitudes stand a better chance of being in sync with the tropics of the MEI is higher, but it's not absolute. Kind of akin to how the AO is correlated to colder mid latitude winters, but there are always exceptions when areas outside of it's domain are pervasive drivers.
  13. Mount Joy Snowman
    Yeah, it's going to be muggy as heck for a few days. Could see dews above 75 from tomorrow through Saturday, with daily chances for afternoon storms. Some people might really make out with this airmass, even more than they'd like.
  14. yoda
    I hope so. I dont mind the humidity now.... but i hate like mid 90s and blazing sun and mid 70s DP
  15. NEG NAO
    the clouds and potential storms along with heat and high humidity around the Bermuda HP backed up into the region overnight - here we go again.....
  16. WxUSAF
    Seems really temporary? Monday and Tuesday only and then possibly a strong cold front?
  17. tamarack
    July 17-30 here was 3.4° BN. I'm guessing that most of New England was normal or BN during those 2 weeks.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    MEI is great for what it's designed to do...assess how well coupled ENSO is with the tropical atmosphere: The bi-monthly Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI.v2) is the time series of the leading combined Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of five different variables (sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), zonal and meridional components of the surface wind, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)) over the tropical Pacific basin (30°S-30°N and 100°E-70°W). I'm not sure why it should be viewed as a quality assessment outside of that bounded area of the tropical Pacific....it's not going to be able to detect how well the tropics are in sync with the mid latitudes, rather it is designed to measure the quality of the coupling between the ocean and atmosphere in the tropical Pacific. The RONI is probably better equipped to gage the link between the tropics and mid latitudes, but ultimately I think we just need to dig in an assess for ourselves like Chris has been doing. I don't care is the MEI is 5.3, there is still obviously a prism between the tropics and mid latitudes and no, that isn't necessarily a "good" thing for winter.
  19. Damage In Tolland
    An earlier post said back BN. It was never there
  20. NorthHillsWx
    0.00” here overnight and yesterday. First miss in a long time
  21. yoda
    Not liking seeing mid 90s and humidity return next week
  22. Guest

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  23. canderson
    Holy humidity, Batman
  24. CoastalWx
    We may get a touch BN late next week.
  25. chubbs
    When you focus on periods just before and just after station changes, the changes are have very strong statistical significance. Below is an example for Coatesville, using the monthly difference between Coatesville and West Chester. On average, Coatesville was 2.5F cooler relative to West Chester in 1949-50 vs 1944-45, before the 1946 move. The stats show that the move-related change was highly significant statistically.
  26. Damage In Tolland
    How can it go back below normal if it was never there in the first place ?
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