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Severe Thunderstorm Watch area wide until 8pm

1997 had a +EPO Winter.. the 500mb was -30dm mean for Alaska, when in all Nino 3.4 the correlation is 0.0. I can't stress enough that +epo is the worst pattern for Winter weather in the Mid Atlantic and NE. 01-02 was the most +EPO Winter. Point is, +EPO is not really an El Nino pattern, even east based events have a mean of -5dm over Alaska. El Nino is more PNA and NPH. So some other factors caused some of the extreme, persistent warmth in 97-98, by lifting that trough north over Alaska and to the arctic circle. I still see this event as evolving much further east than that one though. Global warming has made it like 5x more likely to have something close to a 97-98 Winter now, but that doesn't mean we will see +EPO dominated the whole cold season.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 234 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 234 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MDC001-003-005-013-015-021-023-025-027-031-033-043-510-210000- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0234.260520T1640Z-260521T0000Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CARROLL CECIL FREDERICK GARRETT HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY $$ SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 234 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 234 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS VAC013-043-047-059-061-069-079-107-113-139-153-157-165-171-187- 510-600-610-660-683-685-840-210000- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0234.260520T1640Z-260521T0000Z/ VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARLINGTON CLARKE CULPEPER FAIRFAX FAUQUIER FREDERICK GREENE LOUDOUN MADISON PAGE PRINCE WILLIAM RAPPAHANNOCK ROCKINGHAM SHENANDOAH WARREN VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDRIA FAIRFAX FALLS CHURCH HARRISONBURG MANASSAS MANASSAS PARK WINCHESTER $$ SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 234 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 234 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS WVC003-023-027-031-037-057-065-071-210000- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0234.260520T1640Z-260521T0000Z/ WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKELEY GRANT HAMPSHIRE HARDY JEFFERSON MINERAL MORGAN PENDLETON $$

WWUS from KWNS Watch issued Mid -Atlantic south of here

Latest HRRR is essentially a bust. Some hit or miss storms, but nothing that would amount to more than half an inch of rain, and certainly not severe.

That was fast... watch up until 8pm

Definitely consistent with the idea that this is mainly a threat north of 66 (VA) 50 (MD).

Good. Bake out Mt. Washington so I can hit some 370 yd drives again.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0801.html Mesoscale Discussion 0801 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 201623Z - 201800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail this afternoon and evening. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed soon. DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations depict a cold front extending from central New York southwestward through north-central and western Pennsylvania into southeast Ohio. Ahead of this cold front, temperatures are warming into the 90s across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, with surface dewpoints in the low/mid 60s F. Continued heating of this air mass is supporting 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, with further destabilization anticipated through the afternoon hours. Recent satellite/radar imagery has shown increasing convective coverage ahead of the aforementioned cold front as remaining inhibition is eroded. With stronger mid/upper-level flow remaining displaced to the northwest, only modest effective shear is analyzed across the region (generally 20-30+ kts per latest mesoanalysis). This will be sufficient to support updraft organization with multicells, and perhaps marginal supercells, likely. Steep low-level lapse rates, well-mixed boundary layer profiles, and surface dewpoint depressions exceeding 20-25 F will promote the potential for damaging wind gusts, particularly with any more organized clusters that develop. Isolated instances of large hail may also accompany any more robust updrafts despite weak mid-level lapse rates (as sampled by the 12z PIT/IAD observed soundings). A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed soon. ..Chalmers/Hart.. 05/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 40687798 40987676 40987614 40907587 40747568 40397553 39967560 39437589 39147621 38927665 38687793 38597862 38587907 38767959 39117993 39388003 39737992 40107959 40247926 40687798 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

SWO from KWNS Severe Watch needed soon in Mid-Atlantic

STW coming soon for majority of LWX CWA

meh-everything will be wet and waterlogged with overcast damp conditions. Monday is our only hope really for anything serviceable.

alerted on Radarscope of an MCD issued for our area, 80% chance of a blue box coming.

you should be good...timing for anything there is after 4-5 PM...probably more towards 5-7

90/66. LFG

And it continues to appear that most of that rain will be Saturday and Saturday night into Sunday morning. The models still move the rain out for Sunday afternoon. Obviously it won't be beautiful with cloudy/cool weather, but there is hope that it will be dry for cookouts Sunday afternoon and evening.

Per the 12z sounding at IAD, the Conv. Temp is 93°. Hoping to get us into the low 90s to maximize whatever we can today.

If you really want to see something depressing, check out the consistently large data gab of 00z/12z RAOBs across the intermountain west, desert southwest, and upper plains. Watching the US upper air network get decimated willy nilly is just a sight to behold.

-51F at 35k feet. @nycwinter hoodie weather. Should beat any wx into NYC terminal.

Am I gonna have to worry about any storms here during the 1-5pm range? Got an appointment I and some errands to run and was hoping I could ride my bike.

High stakes weekend... EPS/GEFS and EC are wettest models, but if anything maybe ticking drier AI-GFS/EC and GFS driest... 12z AI-GFS still a shutout until late Monday, but ticking less suppressed

88/70 with a heat index of 93 Still no 90. High of 89.3 so far but there's a very light sea breeze. Toasty on the south shore

The Brunswick tornado was a brief ER-0 event about 4 miles SW from town center, and did minor damage. The Phippsburg tornado formed just past noon about 15 miles SE from the first one. It was an EF-1 with winds to 100 mph, tracking 3.8 miles with width to 75 yards. Many trees were blown down and several buildings damaged, but no injuries were reported. Meanwhile 65 miles north, we had moderate snow and 20s at the same time. Day's data: 27° 14° 0.39" 3.8" The snow fell straight down, barely a breath of wind. The official report: A pair of waterspouts/tornadoes moved northward from the Gulf of Maine during the early afternoon of Thanksgiving Day. The waterspouts/tornadoes formed along a warm frontal boundary that was associated with an area of low pressure which was bringing snow to much of the state of Maine. The first waterspout/tornado moved ashore over the southern tip of the Phippsburg peninsula near Bald Head, crossed Small Point, moved over The Branch, went ashore again on Hermit Island, lifted, reformed over Tottman Cove, and then went ashore once again near West Point. The second tornado/waterspout reportedly touched down as a waterspout south of Brunswick in Middle Bay, then moved ashore near the northern end of Mere Point Neck, moved back over water at the northern end of Maquoit Bay, then moved back over land and crossed Bunganug Road before dissipating.

Clouds came in too fast to keep the heat going. .

I drove through a pretty heavy downpour on the taconic yesterday. Unfortunately at home it didnt rain much and I had to water the grass seed I put down on sunday (in a vain attempt to making the front lawn look less than abominable). 93f in the bronx now.