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I just got home from work and saw that same map. The funny thing is everyone was saying today was going to be crap, and we would end up getting almost 4 in here in Plainville. I was only expecting an inch from what what the predictions were from the meteorologists in the area as well as several people on this forum.

I would go 1-3 for NYC and coast. 0z runs will be telling.

We cancel

The NBM finally caught up to the models, lol. This looks just like the NWS map (not a coincidence). I'll take it.

Lot of noise,lot of honking in that day 9-10 range.

Let's see if the Euro AIFS can score a dub...

Last 3k NAM.

WTNH's map.

Please take to the “Chester County bickering “ thread. Again. Please. .

Euro also goes east and drier. Seems to be the theme at 18z. Wondering if today’s over performance is the reason for tomorrows downtrend

Well at least your car does not have another dose of salt to suck the life out of it.

Relax man, this feels a bit like amplifying a disagreement out of thin air... (a strength of this forum is the enrichment of ENTPs?) Preponderance of legacy physics models Wed-Friday last week had Jan 18 a graze or completely out to sea vs. AI guidance almost invariably had a substantial advisory-warning hit across the southeast and more. The move of legacy models towards the AI guidance at 12z today suggested AI guidance could be correct, obviously with verification TBD. You're reiterating the point I made multiple times: a major weakness of AI guidance is that how a solution is achieved is opaque, and we can't point to a physics-based mechanism for why they are consistent or change. In any case, this field is at least something kind of evolving and cool to distract us from the latest of a series of disappointing winters. I haven't looked at guidance since 12z, but my current take for Sunday: generally 2-4" eastern SN, spots 3-6" on south shore and Cape, 2-3" around Worcester area and less further west Hoping at least for some Foxboro snow mojo of yore...

Last NAM run

With tomorrow’s storm it’ll be best winter since 2022 because December was cold and we’re back to cold now. But it only feels like a great winter because of how warm and snowless the 2020s have been

Members are talking about the same thing in 2 different threads. I believe it's time to make a dedicated thread for tomorrow. Just to have clarity.

Euro AI east

About 3.5" from both rounds. Nice wintery evening. 32/31

I've got some beers from Aslin and Solace in the fridge

Unfortunately, CPC now almost entirely refuses to used any 1900s analogs. They broke down on the 6-10 day analog package and was partially used 1994. 2014 was partially incorporated for the 6-10. 2010 was partially used for d8-14. The fly in the ointment is drought. That said, I think the STJ will give us a few chances. The d6-10 window is AN precip FWIW.

I mean yay that we have another nickel and dime event, but I'm ready for the main course.

@donsutherland1 In a shocking turn of events….the WWB isn’t as strong as it was hyped to be:

Sure but that has nothing to do with the morning snow

41 here and clouding up.

Sigh.

CPC d8-14 and d6-10 analog probability maps for temps.