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Largely, yeah, though it continued tweaking ever so slightly until game-time. I'm working under the assumption we dont need a massive shift to allow these two pieces to divorce more cleanly than they currently are. Is it a hail mary? damn straight. Would I forecast it, hell no. Moreso typing a steam of thoughts as to how this system could theoretically work. Regardless of the final outcome, its an incredibly fascinating storm from a meteorological standpoint, and, to me at least, trying to pin down any potential variables and how they could potentially affect the outcome is alot of the fun of forecasting, even if its an insanity-inducing PIA lol

Again, perfect low placement. Things will get better.

I’m getting very interested in the pattern next week. Ensembles are intriguing. Seems like a potentially more normal way of getting snow.

GFS is waaaaay east. Thing practically makes a B line for bermuda once it forms. LOL

That's all I'm asking for. 2" - 4".

Nobody is forcing you to be here

Canadian looks like the RGEM cut totals for many and shifted south like the Euro

Over the last 10-15 years of sref observation, the only thing the SREF has been useful for is giving unrealistic hope when there is little. I'm feeling pessimistic down here. Blacksburg is calling for 4-8" and I'm feeling under 3

And unfortunately this is somewhat of a zero-sum game given the wide range of geography in this subforum Hope everyone gets something....nice to see some flakes (kid in me), but tbh this kinda f's up my program development-wise bc of construction delays.....can't rough grade for survey pins, or prep for a slab pour/underslab plumbing (or pour the slab) with snow on the ground, or the subsequent mud after it melts.....plus pushes sub crews out with the backlog.....I would gladly donate whatever we get around CLT to some of the Raleigh/Southside VA peeps- it can snow all it wants to after I get the slabs down and 3 full afternoons above 70F into the cure lol

Greenville Rocky mount and Roanoke rapids usually do well in this setup

cmc also bumped nw almost gives dc qpf, not giving up hope on a pack refresher.

Who enjoys deep winter? Unless there's snow falling, you have to be sick to enjoy this kinda cold. Unless you're a diehard snowboarder.

The SREF might be my favorite model now

Canadian ticked down from the previous run but still solid considering:

Hopefully a blip by the RGEM. That's a prefered Model . It has been the best SRM for the Area as far as accuracy.

Greenville, NC keeps flipping from 3" to 12+" from model to model and run to run. This needs to stop because I'm becoming bipolar.

Yeah. It’s cold and dry right now but at some point there will be accumulating snow again in this subforum while Tampa is 75F. So I can’t get mad about them having flurries. lol

So using the mean is misleading due to outliers. Using the medium is more reliable. What about using the mode?

I agree. And this winter has quite a bit of time left in it. So there's definitely more opportunities for something. I think the mindset is when we have something comes through that gives us all the goods, we want more. But unfortunately that's not what happens, at least not right away.

I could do without the Wake County screw zone in that run.

What?

100% agreed. Overall, it seems very unlikely we see the changes needed but it's much closer than it appears. I also hate comparing storms, particularly different setups and this is nothing like last week. This is a totally different animal and additional processes being added.

P.S. Theres another signal still for late next week

GFS is too far east with the snow in NE GA. It’s the only model out of every model that far east. Will definitely be more west into GA. GFS is on its own with that thinking and it’s the most inaccurate model of the globals. The consistency of the Euro, CMC, RGEM, ICON I’d bet on before the GFS, but that’s just me. And I’m speaking solely from NE GA, Winder, about 25 miles west of Athens. I think 2-4” is very likely for us on these parts of the forum. .

I wonder if this can be ironed out if that relays weaker up there ... LOL, frankly I've grown weary and tired of even looking at this motherfucker