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did they round up to 32 from like 4
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
LakePaste25 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yup. Avoiding absolutisms (such as “this will be a wall-to-wall shutout, record low snow, etc.”) is key to seasonal forecasting. There will be pacific jet extensions and it will be unfavorable for winter far, far more often than not. Probably as high as 70/30 or 80/20 unfavorable. But there should be some windows of opportunity, even if brief. Of course I am more of a weather weenie than just a snow weenie, so even seeing coastals and severe outbreaks in the South will keep my interest going, plus tracking those brief opportunists to see if a KU event comes to fruition will also be fun. -
Hoisting the Sultan Signal: Heavy Rain Event July 5-7
ineedsnow replied to WxWatcher007's topic in New England
3k looks meh though -
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
BBasile replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
About to get dumped on. Can't even really see the storm coming because the cloud base is only 300 feet. Can't definitely hear it, though. Picked up 1.01" last night. This might double that. -
Hoisting the Sultan Signal: Heavy Rain Event July 5-7
ineedsnow replied to WxWatcher007's topic in New England
12z NAM going to flood -
Hoisting the Sultan Signal: Heavy Rain Event July 5-7
ineedsnow replied to WxWatcher007's topic in New England
you sure about that? 12z NAM coming in -
The blob of heavy slow moving rain over the rockaways and the island beaches have exactly 10 mins to dissipate before the 2 hour NAM blows it. in a shocking turn of events the 1 hr hrrr is better than the nam.
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Hoisting the Sultan Signal: Heavy Rain Event July 5-7
ineedsnow replied to WxWatcher007's topic in New England
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
What does ENSO state have to do with it? We know guidance has yet to catch up to the intensity of modern ridges because we just witnessed it last winter out west. ENSO state plays a role in dictating where the under-modeled ridging will set up, but it doesn't alter the fact that it is consistently under modeled. The whole "show me update data every season" is a cop out IMHO...the sky is blue, and I don't need data...either look upwards and check Google. -
Hoisting the Sultan Signal: Heavy Rain Event July 5-7
moneypitmike replied to WxWatcher007's topic in New England
pics? -
Should be a busy day today. Already storms developing this morning.
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Hoisting the Sultan Signal: Heavy Rain Event July 5-7
weatherwiz replied to WxWatcher007's topic in New England
I think its safe to say, that can be tossed and tossed very far -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yes, this. -
you have a chance of flooding rain very soon - Flood Warning says between 2 - 32 inches -lol FFW from KPHI problem today is these areas of heavy rain just develop very quickly
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
He's saying that ridging is underestimated in this modern era, so where ever ridging is denoted, it's highly likely that seasonal guidance will be too cold and low with heights in that area...regardless of where it is. -
Probably. The 12z is even wilder-especially eastern areas.
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Hoisting the Sultan Signal: Heavy Rain Event July 5-7
weatherwiz replied to WxWatcher007's topic in New England
Goes very wild with the llvl jet -
This will be off by 5" in my area
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Hoisting the Sultan Signal: Heavy Rain Event July 5-7
ineedsnow replied to WxWatcher007's topic in New England
didn't even see your post.. either its drunk or someone floods -
Hoisting the Sultan Signal: Heavy Rain Event July 5-7
ineedsnow replied to WxWatcher007's topic in New England
12z HRRR going wild in some spots -
Hoisting the Sultan Signal: Heavy Rain Event July 5-7
CoastalWx replied to WxWatcher007's topic in New England
12z hrrr went drunk. wtf is that lol.
