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I do think this pattern comes back around before long. If I had to take a shot in the dark, I’d say 2ish weeks of seasonal to above average. It just stinks that those 2 weeks begin right before Christmas but on the bright side, an above average Christmas lets the kids get outside with new toys. We sort of needed this reset as well. This pattern was never going to produce. It’s northern stream dominated, Alaska was cold, no southern jet action, and either the trough was not deep enough or too far east or the ridge out west was too flat or all of the above. Let me get a cold Jan driven by a more cooperative Pacific.

With the bad winters happening consistently lately, I can't remember how many years exactly so far now many other years has a similar outcome occurred based on record keeping stats? If rarely much at all, the big question that comes to mind is, will this be the new kind of winter we will be seeing from now on, with a warmer world?? Seems to me that part history versus what happens storms wise has been falling short. One example would be the forecasts for record breaking hurricane seasons the past 2 years falling a little short, with a couple monster storms... Or were simply stuck in a dam loop and can't seem to break it?

if you're talking about pure VP, there is literally almost always a standing wave there. like for decades

I got ridiculed for saying I thought we’d waste early Dec cold that hardly ever works out and we’d end up with a Torchmas. Guess what?!?

If the ground is bare, then i'll take 60+

Its pretty comical and sad that most models have a dry slot right through our area for the Saturday night system. Snows good west of here then regenerates to the east. I guess there's some downsloping going on there, most of the models show some version of that scenario.

Only question is how warm and do we go 70s or not

Yea I agree, this is the first real can kick of the winter season unfortunately

This may explain why the 6z EURO flip flops:

I think it’s a matter of how long, not if it warms up Christmas week. PNA was progged to go positive, but that has since reversed and looks to stay negative. Cold dumping into west will set any pattern change back, thinking we have to step back down into a cooler weather pattern after Christmas and into the new year.

I think it's pretty clear the pattern is going to break.

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Gunna suck pretty bad for all of our inner child hopes for a classic white Christmas hopes. Praying things turn around Christmas week.

It literally can go either way, 50/50 as far as Christmas and a warm up or staying chilly. I think staying on focus for the possible snow event this Sunday makes more sense. We can't even figure out what's going to happen in 4 days let alone 2 weeks

Snow and Nina correlations are abysmal and you're not bound by prior analogs for it.

4.1” at MSP Scattered snow showers and another clipper tonight.

That's why we will warm up a bit.

Yea, if the nascent mid level lows are far enough south, sure....just going by the position on those ensemble products neat the BM. I would have to assume the mid level lows would be far enough north to impact most of the area.

Rain train on the GFS OP

Everyone?

There is still a standing wave at the MC (phases 4-6) until that changes, this is going to keep happening

not surprising that we're seeing a warmer interlude with some -VP contaminating things in the IO and western MC. this quickly changes back to strong WHEM forcing in late Dec, likely signaling a flip back to a more favorable pattern after Christmas and into the New Year

Yes

Should I install?