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It’s a really good question. The very end of the CFS run next June continues the Nino in 3 and 1+2 due to the WWBs shifting the warm pool east. We can also see the model showing a significant subsurface warm pool in the EPAC at the end of the run. Plus the current CFS is much too cool for its initialization of 1.2 this week. We are in uncharted territory with how extreme the warming is becoming with this El Niño. So we really don’t have any similar analogs to draw from. All we can say is that 82-83 was a significantly weaker event and managed to linger into early July in the Nino 1+2 regions. There has never been a +30C warm pool pushed this far to the east in the Pacific before. So we don’t really know for sure how quickly the record WWBs will relax heading into next June. All the models keep the WWBs going until the end of their runs next June. But it’s interesting that they are all saying the same thing including the recent extended Euro runs.

Murphy is alive and active.

Shouldn't have opened my fat mouth. I hate Mondays.

Ha, right. It must be getting cold upstairs because we’ve seen more frozen cores in this. Summits are in the 30s now. The old low 50s but with dry low levels… gets real gusty, then rain before 90 seconds of frozen and back to rain before ending.

We LOVE to see it.

The temperatures are certainly way above normal - but the more amazing part has been the water temperature. I was in the water for an hour yesterday, with ocean temps off the pier here just south of SBA at 74.

Now that there’s an invest we will get hurricane models this evening. Overall there’s been a significant uptick overall regarding strength on modeling today tho the AI models are definitely cooking this thing up more than the rest. Despite the overall increase from modeling, intensity ranges for this still include a very sheared lopsided weak system (see Euro). Google seems to really want to develop and move this NE quick which might be out ahead of the modeled shear later in the weekend. That might be a specific trend to watch in terms or timing possibly affecting intensity

It won't be for long. Front coming through holy leaf fall.

both 01-02 and 11-12 were close here. One 7-10 day stretch with a 4 inch snowfall each yr, the rest was well above average and bone dry.

Cold front coming through this afternoon

The 12z Euro shreds it and keeps it very weak.

Hoping that all that rain in September isn't going to muck up the leaves, the sugars in my yard have blight. The weather this week should help in general.

60%/80% now: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92): A trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle portion of the week. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next couple of days, before it turns northward. It is too early to determine the specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

it's 72 here with warm sun and angel kiss breezes ... he's talking about graupel. ha

Congrats to the usual areas.

This summer is never going to end.

Google seems to be zeroing in on a significant landfall on the Gulf Coast. Still a long lead time though

70 / 51 a great day , partly cloudy - breezy. Allergies must be elevated

Yeah because the hour 300+ gfs represents all of winter.

Was not expecting this wind today. 20+mph gusts here.

There's been a 'year without a summer' ..perhaps more than once. I wonder if there's a year without a winter. Probably there's already been one. Preferential bias just doesn't recognize it... 2012 was close.

12Z UKMET: shifts back east from 0Z run’s far SE LA to MS/AL border track to new track into FL Pan for mid-grade TS followed by NNE and then NNW move in AL: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 22.8N 92.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 08.10.2026 72 24.0N 91.4W 1002 30 0000UTC 09.10.2026 84 25.2N 89.4W 999 34 1200UTC 09.10.2026 96 26.7N 88.0W 996 44 0000UTC 10.10.2026 108 28.7N 86.9W 995 49 1200UTC 10.10.2026 120 32.1N 86.1W 999 26 0000UTC 11.10.2026 132 34.5N 87.3W 1001 26 1200UTC 11.10.2026 144 CEASED TRACKING

I'm expecting both teams to make the playoffs this year