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Beggars can't be choosers and we need the rain badly, but hoping no high winds and little rain for our vaca to Rockwood tomorrow-sun. Boat still in at marina (should be ok), but any high winds makes me nervous. Regarding fuel prices, we're pretty damn lucky with our south facing housing. Burn ~500g/yr propane and 1cd of wood. Paid $300 for the cord. Funny side story of a friend of ours that sells wood. He was getting $400/cd at the time (250 was the norm) and calling it "organic". There's a sucker born every day.

Where is the center of circulation at this time?

HRRR really showing that system near Cuba getting pulled up.. i wonder what influence it will have.. by hr48 its east of Florida

If 40-60 + mph gusts on fully leaved trees are meh to you. Good luck to you

Oh right I remember october 2022 was delightfully cool and crisp. No ugly 80s rearing their heads.

Depends on your location, but for most of the area, it's either 2020 or 2022. (However, both years had very warm starts to November.)

Oh ok. Plenty of trees/woodlands here in MI! The color show will be great. Corn fields are definitely an important aspect of the autumn harvest however.

.97 and counting. It looks like there's an area if steady rain in northern VA starting to develop.

Yes. Hardywood is a really good brewery.

Although that el nino collapsed very early in the second year and led into the very strong la nina of 1988-89. I suspect if we got a 2nd year el nino in 2027-28, something similar could happen and we could get a strong la nina in 2028-29 instead.

I forgot to show the back half of 1997

There is no solution yet…just possible ones.

Looks like we'll see a return to 80s and higher dew points first few days of October. This happens nearly every year now. @bluewavewhat was the last time we had an october without at least one 80 F reading?

That will change if the GFS moves towards the Euro.

Yeah a very boring and ugly solution

They don't get much stronger.

Saturday doesn't look great either with the wind and rain moving in

If my apple picking is going to be ruined we better get 1”+ out of it up here. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

I'm seeing the image

At least you guys could really use the rain.

Meh, besides coastal flooding and erosion being maximized with the loop and Astro high tides this is just a rainy Nor’Easter that ruins another Sunday as well as Saturday this time and maybe Friday.

A lot of uncertainties still Kev…if this thing really amps up into a powerhouse, then ya sure the winds could crank inland. If it’s a weak dog, forget it. We have a couple more Days to see how things come together.