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True. The coast is its own beast.

Canadian has a beautiful H5 pass with the progged coastal system next week. Too bad it's not January! Maybe a good sign for the winter, though? By the way, ever since the Canadian suite was upgraded in recent months it's been outperforming the Euro and GFS by quite a bit.

I don’t know about “ever increasing disaster”, but you must know that there have been some bad seasons since including 2008, 2012, and most of 2016-24. 2016-24 was one of the worst 9 year periods for the SE US overall. Fortunately 2025 as well as 2026 so far have given us a much needed break, especially after the horrible 2024. But that’s less than 2 seasons.

I thought the Nino ridge south of Hudson Bay was not usually a Nino feature in October though.

Hey Rich! .20 yesterday, 3.14 for the month, and a 2.5 hour power outage from around 10pm-12:30am last night. The power going out went unnoticed as the bride and I were already snoring but when it came back on the house 'coming back to life' got my attention and totally messed up my sleep cycle. Gorgeous weather here today and tomorrow before the gloom returns. My AC's getting uninstalled is on my list for tomorrow for those who are passionate about tracking such things. Happy feel-good football Friday! That's my report and GO IRISH!

I would just caution that when models start backing in deep layer lows at 5-7 day leads, it's usually symbolic if not processing as though 'getting ready' to collapse one way or another.

kid's a freshman at PSU, going to see her this weekend and to our first game tomorrow, first real taste of fall looks like...about time!

so, water

i miss your ipa names

Yeah picked up a bit of sprinklage here.

Yesterday’s Euro Weeklies suggested a pretty active period in and near FL during the week of Sept 28-Oct 3rd. This suggests a recurving TC in that area is quite possible: This matches long-term climo well, which is at least close to the most active period for FL throughout the season: These 5 strong+ El Niño analogs with hits in FL during or near this active period shown on the Weeklies suggest to be wary especially in FL then although it’s interesting that these 5 were all 1902 and earlier as the subsequent 11 strong+ Ninos didn’t have a FL hit around then: 1902: 1899: 1896: 1888: 1877:

I’m tempted to do a rainfail contest for Sunday - Wednesday.

https://www.facebook.com/WKRNDavisNolan/posts/pfbid0dPn5tsocRuz5JK1VgL9FgdhRUQvgX2VisfbxureuofMDEvLcfEsijeuUPjhNAVqfl yep Davis Nolan among other meteorologists are forecasting a cool down coming towards the middle to end of next week looks refreshing .

This moment 23 years ago was exciting. Here's to another day like that soon.

Hello Rob + everyone. Didn’t want to see the thread go Sunday to Sunday without a post. As always …….

Was about to post about that! WOW

The ensemble means are wetter than the OPS.

Let’s see how good the Ggem really is lol

Whoa

This is no different from always. Go with the seasonal trend. Dry.

Half inch on sunday and that's about it

80s have become more common in October during the last decade. We even had November 80s two years during the 2020s. The average for warm spots like Newark has been 4 days reaching 80° past the end of September. Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 80 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Oct-Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 3 0 4 2025 4 0 4 2024 4 2 6 2023 6 0 6 2022 0 1 1 2021 5 0 5 2020 0 0 0 2019 3 0 3 2018 3 0 3 2017 5 0 5 2016 3 0 3 First/Last 80° Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Minimum 02-21 (2018) 09-28 (2020) 181 Mean 03-28 10-18 203 Maximum 04-15 (2024) 11-06 (2024) 2025 03-29 (2025) 85 10-07 (2025) 83 191 2024 04-15 (2024) 83 11-06 (2024) 83 204 2023 04-06 (2023) 83 10-28 (2023) 84 204 2022 04-14 (2022) 88 11-07 (2022) 81 206 2021 03-26 (2021) 84 10-20 (2021) 80 207 2020 03-20 (2020) 80 09-28 (2020) 81 191 2019 04-08 (2019) 80 10-07 (2019) 80 181 2018 02-21 (2018) 80 10-11 (2018) 81 231 2017 04-10 (2017) 82 10-21 (2017) 81 193 2016 03-09 (2016) 82 10-19 (2016) 87 223

Some 12z EPS members look fun

SPC has day 2 marginal risk out for east i65 Cumberland plateau and almost the majority of east tn for tomorrow Saturday for 5% damaging winds .