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Fun fact: DCA's monthly high so far is 57. If we don't hit 60 before Saturday, this would be the coldest February high since 2010 (which topped out at 50).

May have been wrong in calling for a new record in March. Only 0.01C off the record ytday.

Extended looks wet, time to lock in

Coming in quick. These love early arrivals

Snow started in Westfield about 10 minutes ago

Heavy snow in Kearny, nj. Started 10 minutes ago and is ready coming down.

Torch after the 8th.

Thursday night is well south imo.

A solid inch and a half sticking to everything. Nice viewing as I take the dog out at 5:30.

It’s a threat but I see a lot of uncertainty in the evolution. It’s in the we watch, but nothing to get excited yet.

Not quite my 100 miles, but getting there. Hopefully, not all the way to the EuroAI. Wait, who am I trying to kid here? Lol

Been snowing since 5, maybe 1/4” otg with heavier returns on the doorstep as the finale.

From LWX KEY MESSAGE 3... Wintry precipitation threats are possible early next week. Following a dry weekend, shortwave troughing pivoting to the north will push a surface cold front across the region on Monday. As the trough pivots over the Great Lakes towards the Northeast, moisture originating from the Pacific approaches the area. With the event being toward the end of the forecast period, there remains a good deal of spread within the model guidance. While global guidance agrees on precipitation during the day, the discrepancies are with precipitation type. Marginal temperatures in the 30s during the day will drop into the mid to upper 20s overnight. The 00z GFS has snow staying along the MD/PA border with those farther south getting a mix of sleet/snow. The 00z ECMWF/Canadian has primarily snow across the area. Chances for a winter weather event remain low given the model discrepancies, but will certainly continue to monitor in subsequent forecast shifts.

Stolen from our MA friends

Philly region is dead but what a caper this would be

21° when I went to bed last night, and when I got up this morning, it was 30° with just a light dusting of snow. That’s not what NWS was calling for. Just appeared there wasn’t a whole of precipitation with the system.

Next week continues to look legit also

6z GFS brings the Thursday/Friday deal back a bit. Still brushes but a decent tic north

So the global suite seems to be onboard for the moment with the lead wave early next week giving this sub snow. 6Z GFS is stronger with the cold push and as a result, better wrt snow outcomes.

Yeah I feel bad for areas north and west of us that got the rug pulled last minute. It really is a shame considering what the models were showing at first. This was a 1 in 200 year event for this area and I would've been extremely disappointed if I had the rug pulled on my area as well. The worst part about experiencing a storm like this is knowing that nothing else will ever top it. I got 31" IMBY which is the most I've ever seen and nothing else comes close. I mean, PVD broke its all-time record by 9.3" which is beyond insane. The odds of us seeing something like this again around here is like zero. ORH saw over 30" in 1992, 1997 and 2015. You guys have a better shot at seeing 30" again. Several meteorologists talked about how this storm hit the “Goldilocks situation" of just the right temperature for wet heavy snow and claim that if it tracked any farther inland that it would've lost a lot of its moisture and not dropped as much snow. I'm not sure how valid it is but this article was an interesting read: https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/blizzard-snow-storm-science/3905033/%3f You have to wonder if climate change keeps increasing the amount of moisture in these storms, maybe someday we will see more mega QPF bombs like this one. It just has to take the perfect track to crush everyone.

Meh

10-14hr storm on the GFS next week but it would be the perfect cap on a great winter. 12z suite I expect things to pick up in here a bit more

GFS is just pure SEX

NAM closer for Saturday but looks warm