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just had the wettest 2-day stretch on record at the municipal airport here, and those 5.51" came in a ~18 hour span.

81F/DP 55F Good shot we make it through the rest of June w/o a 90F+ day...

Yep. Some pretty strong gusts today

So much is loaded into the net result of everyday winter weather but it’s going to be intriguing to see play out. We’ve had a lot of cold and dry the past few years with a southern jet that just can’t get the job done and watching everything get suppressed. I think we swing the pendulum the other way this year but hopefully not too much. My fear is that it’s indeed BN for much of the season with AN precip but I think it’s driven by a lot of 45° rainstorms - not snow. But we only need to connect on one for it to be a good winter in this forum.

Sorry to hear that a key player is out, though

An actual legit pattern change leading to normal rain chances could be starting on Monday.

I feel like we are going to be playing with fire a lot between periods of Modoki forcing and MC forcing....probably a good deal of variability after a consistently mild early season.

Sunday morning at 424am...Then the sun SLOWLY starts to move back..you'll start to notice the difference by mid August

Models are trending south with the Sunday system. The CAMs are well south of my area with any storms. The Euro had been holding on a bit farther north, but it has caved this morning. I'm no longer expecting anything more than a light shower.

Picked up .35" for the day. Not bad.

Only 0.25" here. Way more in every direction all around me. Oh well. Still doing ok on a monthly basis and more is coming Monday.

Records: Highs: EWR: 103 (1994) NYC: 98 (1994) LGA: 97 (1994) JFK: 98 (1994) Lows: EWR: 53 (1954) NYC: 49 (1914) LGA: 56 (2022) JFK: 54 (1965) Historical: 1794: A violent tornado commenced west of the Hudson River in New York. The tornado traveled through Poughkeepsie then crossed the border into Connecticut where it went through the towns of New Milford, Waterbury, North Haven, and Branford. It then continued into Long Island Sound. The tornado did extensive damage, and the funnel was reported by one observer to look like the "aurora borealis." 1835 - A tornado tore through the center of New Brunswick NJ killing five persons and scattering debris as far as Manhattan Island. The tornado provided the first opportunity for scientists to study firsthand the track of such a storm. (David Ludlum) 1934: A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico came ashore in Louisiana, then moved northeast, passing over northern Delaware, Philadelphia, PA and central New Jersey as an extratropical storm, with sustained winds of 45 mph. Philadelphia received 1.70 inches of rainfall on the 18th into this date, and New York City had 1.93 inches on this date, a daily record. As the storm passed over Philadelphia, the pressure dropped to 29.40 inches of mercury. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1938 - A cloudburst near Custer Creek, MT, (near Miles City) caused a train wreck killing forty-eight persons. An estimated four to seven inches of rain deluged the head of the creek that evening, and water flowing through the creek weakened the bridge. As a result, a locomotive and seven passenger cars plunged into the swollen creek. One car, a tourist sleeper, was completely submerged. (David Ludlum) 1944: Hailstorm caused great destruction to fruit crop in Winchester, Virginia. 1964: A squall line producing large hail swept through central Illinois, followed by two more consecutive lines passing shortly after dawn. The resulting hailstorms caused damage in excess of $9 million dollars, as hailstones the size of grapefruits brought havoc to trees, utility lines, crops and buildings. The thunderstorms also produced as much as 5 inches of rain over an 8-hour period. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1965: The Arkansas River crested at 15.68 feet at Dodge City, KS. Heavy rains in Eastern Colorado combined with three broken dams started the torrent of water which flowed through Colorado and Kansas. The river rose seven feet in 15 minutes between 9 AM and 9:15 AM. The deepest part of south Dodge was about 7 feet under water. The deep water created other problems, when gas regulators were covered, pressure built up in the gas lines and Dodge City was rocked by explosions. Total urban losses in Dodge City and Wilroads Gardens were estimated at nearly $3.8 million dollars, including damages to 615 residences and 155 businesses. 24 Kansas counties were declared flood disasters. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1972 - Hurricane Agnes moved onshore near Cape San Blas FL with wind gusts to 80 mph, and exited Maine on the 26th. There were 117 deaths, mainly due to flooding from North Carolina to New York State, and total damage was estimated at more than three billion dollars. Up to 19 inches of rain deluged western Schuylkill County PA. The rains of Hurricane Agnes resulted in one of the greatest natural disasters in U.S. history. Agnes caused more damage than all other tropical cyclones in the previous six years combined (which included Celia and Camille). (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - It was a warm June day, with plenty of thunderstorms east of the Rockies. Lightning knocked out power at Throckmorton, TX, and ignited an oil tank battery. A woman in Knox City TX was struck by lightning while in her car, and a man was struck by lightning near his home in Manatee County FL. Strong thunderstorm winds overturned several outhouses near Bixby OK, but no injuries were reported. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Temperatures soared above 100 degrees in the central U.S. for Father's Day. Fifteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date. Severe thunderstorms in Minnesota and Wisconsin produced softball size hail near River Falls WI, and wind gusts to 80 mph at Menomonie WI. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Fourteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date as searing heat spread from the southwestern deserts into the High Plains Region. Record highs included 98 degrees at Billings, MT, 107 degrees at Valentine, NE, and 112 degrees at Tucson, AZ. (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - What would eventually be known as the "Inland Hurricane" stuck south central Kansas. This storm system produced a swath of 65 to 120 mph winds across six counties and caused $80 million dollars in damage. The peak recorded wind gust was 116 mph, which reaches low-end category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind intensity scale. On the enhanced Fujita Scale the 116mph winds would be rated an EF2. The storm knocked out power to all the Wichita TV stations, and they were off the air for hours. All but one of the Wichita Radio Stations, including the Wichita NOAA Weather Radio Station KEC-59, was knocked off the air. (National Weather Service Wichita) 1992: Two batches of severe thunderstorms, occurring within six hours of each other, dumped hailstones up to 4.5 inches in diameter (softball size) across Sedgwick and surrounding counties in south central Kansas. Over 10,000 homes were damaged. The hail left wheat fields near total losses. The hail also left most wheat fields in its path a near total loss with about 375,000 acres damaged in several counties. Estimated property damage totaled $500 million dollars with crop damage at $100 million dollars. The thunderstorm episode ranks as one for the worst ever to hit the state of Kansas. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1994: Lightning struck and killed two golfers, and injured another, at the Lincoln Golf Course in northeastern Oklahoma City. These golfers were seeking shelter from a thunderstorm under trees when they were struck by lightning. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1996: Severe thunderstorm winds damaged a large hanger door and turned a Boeing 727 aircraft 180 degrees at Orlando International Airport in Florida. Lightning injured three landscape workers near the University of Central Florida. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1996: A 22 year-old man was reported in critical condition after being struck by lightning while visiting the Nations Capital during the early evening of the 19th. (Ref. Scott Summer of the DC Weather Examiner) 2002: Parts of New Jersey that had barely gotten three inches of snow during the winter were buried in up to 8 inches of hail. People had to break out their snow shovels for the first time of the year. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2006 - Up to 11 inches of rain fell in the Houston, Texas area, causing widespread flash flooding. The Houston Fire Department rescued more than 500 people from flood waters, but no serious injuries or fatalities were reported

No way in hell this is going to be a cold winter in the mean for the NE...even 1957 and 1965 were near normal.

Yes.

PV aside, if we can shift that warm pool east it’ll allow for some brief periods of -EPO/+TNH during jet retractions. We missed out on that during ‘23-‘24 because W pac forcing instantly reverted us to the canonical Aleutian ridge La Niña pattern whenever the jet retracted.

I nailed it in 2016, though granted I was too cold and snowy. I have no issue with a big snow risk, but the cold that Europe site was selling is BS....maybe an arctic outbreak like Feb 2016, but not in the seasonal mean.

Is it bad that I am already sipping on a bourbon?

It is a bit yes. I mean it could happen, but heavy snows in the deep south?? Even northern Florida? that's just ridiculous. Even more so in a strong El-Nino winter. Sure it will be cooler than normal and generally wet there, but not white.

While the warmth in the Northeast during super El Niño winters has been a main feature for us, the snowfall has been more variable. Would need SPV activity at least somewhat like 2015-2016 to at least make the snowfall a little more interesting than 1997-1998 and 2023-2024. But probably wouldn’t be able to forecast such a reversal until the winter is already underway. So not many people would be willing to include it in their seasonal forecasts with the warmer risks of such an extreme El Niño event that is developing. Plus not sure if we could go 3 winters in a row with such strong blocks like we had in February 2025 and the 2025-2026 winter at different intervals. 2015-2016 was a reversal of the record +NAO +AO pattern in 2014-2015 +AO. So may not be able to use it as a reasonable blocking analog. Very extreme NAO and AO reversals have become the norm since 2009-2010. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016JD025288 In January 2016, Asia and North America experienced unusual cold temperatures, although the global average of surface air temperature broke the warmest record during a strong El Niño event. This was closely related to the remarkable phase transition of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), which can be explained by stratosphere-troposphere interactions. First, the quasi-biennial oscillation changed to its westerly phase in summer 2015 and the stratospheric polar vortex was stronger in early to midwinter 2015/2016. As blocking did not occur in December, the associated downward propagation signal resulted in a strongly positive AO in late December 2015. Second, after late December, the positive phase of Pacific-North America pattern became apparent in El Niño event, which strengthened the Aleutian anticyclone in the stratosphere. In addition, an equivalent barotropic (“blocking”) anticyclone was established in the troposphere over Asia. The coexistence of blocking over Asia and North America characterized the negative AO and a strong zonal wave number 2 pattern. Due to stronger zonal wave number 2 signals from the troposphere, the stronger stratospheric polar vortex was elongated, with two cyclonic centers over Asia and the North Atlantic in January. The resultant southward displacement of polar vortices was followed by rare snowfall in the subtropical region of East Asia and a heavy snowstorm on the East Coast of the United States.

The water table barely broke the surface in my seasonal woodland wetland this Spring. Just some patches of "puddles" here and there. Normally it ends up an expansive area(an acre) of water a foot deep. Applying larvicide was an easy job.

countdown to more sunlight as well! Exciting

Holy wind

From several showers and a severe warned thunderstorm, I received ~1.75” yesterday. That put me then at ~3.80” MTD. I received more rain overnight of varying intensities and it’s still falling very lightly with constant rain since late last night. I’ll post the total for this later. It will be >0.5”. No more watering for at least awhile!

Let’s go USA!!