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It was basically a deformation band and then one band out east from strong forcing via CF up through like 850mb.

When nothing works out, holding out hope in the ensembles becomes tiresome....people need more of a crutch when beaten and bruised.

32.2F No power, trees bending, road is a sheet of ice. Thankfully we have a wood burning stove and I filled up lots of pots for water last night. Jackery power station works great for fridge, some lights and to plug in fiber internet. Let's see how warm we can get before fropa later!

That was sarcastic, but my sentiment concerning coastal mid atlantic events was genuine. I'm just sick of hearing about favorable avenues just before mother nature inevitably choses the alternative route...I half except that to happen here.

Yes I agree with that

Exactly

Was that the one where the SLP got really low and it resulted in the precipitation to become more banded in nature versus a uniform precip shield. It was like a tropical storm with heavy bands of snow and nothing in between.

I said "coast from DC to NYC"...if you are telling me DC and Philly get screwed, then different ballgame.

I think that’s placing too much precision on an analog. If all you knew is that we’d get a bomb near the cape with plenty of cold, Wed roll the dice every time and not worry about the nuances.

Number one analog is female.....place that innie on the outtie and it's a dude.

Still a decent pack, mine looks like Swiss cheese.

I do…if operational runs aren’t showing 288 hour blizzards, people get antsy regardless of whether the longwave setup looks nice….its a weird manifestation of the last 5 years. Nobody used to give a shit about whether we had 300 hour storms but now a significant portion of the forum gets anxiety over it. It’s probably because of the lack of KUs in that time period. Somehow, seeing them on the OP runs in clown range is some kind of crutch I guess.

Oh missed that, sorry. Yeah it was a strange one.

Ya I mentioned that above, it was weird , Got WNE and Eastern New England but skunked CNE

Yeah I thought after the 6th (perhaps starting on the 6th) pattern looked conducive. Is it perfect? No, but I don’t see the angst from some.

12/26/10 was also great here but had arctic sand in between here and the Berks. But that was an odd one because the deformation band certainly got deep into SNE, it’s just that there was not much in between Boston and the Berks.

Super tall residential skyscrapers are hubris on a new level.

Thank you .. I don't know where the stigma comes that NYC snow is bad for SNE.. There are plenty of good ones that get great bands into CNE and Maine.. Feb 2006, Feb 2013, Jan 1960..

The 0Z EPS (another run with a transition to a +PNA and a chilly E US) and the 0Z/6Z GEFS (staying -PNA and a warm E US) are in different worlds for mid Jan. The CPC GEFS forecasts of yesterday vs today show a bad 24 hour trend if you want it cold in the E US in mid-Jan: Yesterday’s GEFS PNA forecast was heading up/nice trend vs earlier runs: Today’s 0Z GEFS said never mind, I’ll stay -PNA through the end of the run: yuck GEFS 0Z 360 hour 2m temps: mild in E US with the cold way out to the NW….yuck But the good news is that the GEFS has had a persistent -PNA and warm E US bias over the 90 day period for this map: And the EPS, a better performing and recently steadier ensemble, still has a +PNA and a chilly E US:

Very odd. I was just looking at bufkit, both NAM and GFS for BOS and it is going to rip tomorrow. Even the NAM which tends to undermix has gusts > 50-55 mph.

If DC gets hit big is usually is less impressive here but there’s been plenty that hit us very hard that hit NYC too (Feb ‘78, April ‘82, Jan ‘11, Jan ‘18, etc off the top of my head)

EPS looks solid for the 8th

Latest spc meso analysis has a 120kt jet about to enter western PA and WV. Might see some legit winds west of I-81 today.

BOX loves those href clown wind maps that always target the ORH hills

About 1/8" of ice. 32.4 degrees here at 300 feet. Hopefully we get a few hours above freezing to eliminate any possible damage from the winds.