All Activity

You are AN for the summer. Stop trying to be a Jack humper . You could be Scooter. You have no game with Stein

looking forward to 74/70 in September

Yeah it awful. Those numbers could easily be flipped around. Really good decision to lock him up long term. His stuff is electric.

The old Euro mid range high QPF bias strikes again.

Woke up to 60F this morning. Nice airmass change!

COC Back broken

.40" MTD: August 1st - August Steinteenth

some clever research assistant - if hasn't already happened - will gain their master's theses approval by demonstrating that there is a statistically significant occurrence of pattern return state that features ridging about 1/5th the distance around the Globe, downstream of these oceanic quasi or semi permanent warm regions ... and why. Hint, the answer is NOT because the ocean is driving the pattern. The impetus here being, there's something in the hemispheric scaffolding that's now different. It seems to me ...well, I'm curious to see, if that repositioning ( which I noticed myself just yesterday - ), means an end to the rich recurrent -EPOs us winter enthusiasts have enjoyed during these cold seasons since the 20teens. Great. 1, accelerating CC 2, on top of which there is a super warm ENSO blossoming 3, while there "might" be a signal that stems the N/A cold conveyor source. Forky's startin' to look like a genius. LOL because he can apparently add. like, (1+2+3)/3 ... ? Not that anyone's disputing a warm winter - hell, even in the "cold" ones we seem to be closer to neutral (ave climo) - probably owing to the elephant in the room ... But above and beyond that, the warmth could be extraordinary relative to should these aspects working together create synergy. I've been noticing a lot of climate -based tools with outlooks implicating -NAO ... The philosophical problem I have with using that in a seasonal outlook is a yes and no. The yes, there is an unarguable correlation between ENSO and NAO - particularly in Jan/Feb, that is true. But the NAO timing and placement isn't defined in that correlation.

Climate Reanalyzer "looks" like the curve is about to do a cliff dive during these 4-weeks heading into the climo nadir. That's one data source - no claim as to its accuracy or how well it jives with what others use. If the former is clad, it will be interesting to see if that dive happens and the curve catches up enough to be in the top 5 lowest. The AO index is supposed to be modestly negative, which is somewhat of a warm signal up there.

Perfect.

Yup another Steiner except SW CT

Some of the models are quite wet again for tomorrow but southern areas seem favored

57 years ago this week, 124 people died in Nelson County from the remnants of Camille.

Min 65.0° Summer pattern continues on the hrrr. Frontal convection dies north and west of us today and then the south coast gets dumped on tomorrow night while it’s light showers up here. Lock it in.

I know...uncharted territory. I think that season has some surprises in store.

Today may feel "hot" Looks like 89's are possible but DPs slipping into the mid or low 60s may neutralize the HI. It's light wind under unobstructed still warm to hot sun vibe. These opportunities for maintenance summer heat are slipping away tho, now that we're out of solar max so if one is a summer enthusiast best take in the moments. The typical attempt to realize summer once it is too late in early September is showing up in guidance. Mentioned this the other day and there it is. The deep range signals (indices) along with a couple of Euro/GFS op. runs, are right on queue. 594 dm heights in the first week of the month. It will bring about non-historic but still irritating heat, and an utter block of any tropical. Perfectly wrong from what most want - haha

We've had 90 degree days in early October so still plenty of time to roast.

Its medium-sized I'd say...maybe even just a bit below

Got a surprise half inch of rain overnight.

This was the first time that such a record WPAC warm pool was able to get pushed this far east.

White Marsh

Nice night for sleeping with the doors and windows open. Low here of 47, 50's closer to the lake with some mid-30's in the traditional cooler spots (36 Doe Lake). Sunny low-70's on tap today with another cool night before some rain hopefully arrives later this week.