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Yep that’s where I’m at. I’d love to see things move towards a GFS solution but ultimately the same fail modes that caused the system moving in now to miss are still there. No blocking and no 50/50 means things are very progressive and flatter positive tilt is a serious risk.

the wizards are winning 50 next year F-Boozer F-George C-Sarr G-Trae G-Trae lol

Its coming per CPC

Discount the full blown blizzard is what I meant to Snowcrazed71.

Hmm.... Not really. But I like your analogy the best!

Well we will probably get snow long before the wizards get a 50 win season

Two things are for certain: 1. We need snow within the next 10 days or I think we'll all go crazy 2. @winter_warlock posts 6-words-or-less sentences, one of those words being "lol"

*YOU ARE NOT PERMITTED TO VIEW THIS BOARD*

We might need snow more than the Wizards need a 50-win season.

Then you read wrong. Its not one or the other, but possibly a compromise. See the Euro AI/GFS AI/GEFS. I wouldn't put my eggs in either the GFS OP or Euro OP runs at 12z.

Just noticed that... and bumped up snow totals quite a bit. Great trends today.

Well you almost have to at the moment. Maybe the GFS finds a but this time. But it just shit the bed a few days ago…so for now discount it.

Well it's like it's a tie game and Tyler loop ( the GFS model) is getting set to kick the winning field goal...

Honestly this could trend up or down at this point but with the Euro being on the lighter side, I would tread lightly with excitement. Hopefully good things come for 18z/0z. Its hard to believe models are this bad this close to a storm and we live in 2026.

When can we start getting NAMMED at hour 84....i thinking 6z tomorrow

Np,.. sorry about that !

Winning, I think…sort of…maybe…

And ya..temps flopped big time today, 45 damp and raw with sprinkles. Nasty.

Then LOG THE FUCK OFF. It’s that dam simple. But you’ll be right back here at 18z and 0z, complaining incessantly, so obviously you aren’t tired of this. Cuz if you were, you’d log off. What a crack pot.

If the NAM shows snow = it's not gonna snow but it's funny to look at If the NAM shows a warm nose issue = there will definitely be a warm nose issue and we still won't get snow

18z NAM moves the band around a little more. Kind of a "widespread" foot for much of St. Joseph and LaPorte in IN and Berrien in MI.

Looks that way. OBS sites around the Detroit area have been reporting moderate/heavy snow for the past 2 hours.

Ugh. Suarez to the redsox

Unless the GFS scores the coup on this storm then I think it needs to have the run hours cut down to max 84h and maybe it could just be relegated to replace the NAM. Leave the long range deterministic modeling to the AI. I have more faith in that model improving more in time.

How to interpret the guidance Only the... ICON shows snow=it's not gonna snow but at least you probably won't even notice GFS shows snow=it's not gonna snow and you know it GGEM shows snow=it's not gonna snow but your mind will linger on that one time it was right ECMWF shows snow=it's not gonna snow but it's gonna hurt a bit more If every single model shows snow.... It's still not going to snow but a piece of your soul is going to die when it doesn't.