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At 118" here, no warmup in sight. Should be an easy 150"+ winter! Just an incredible stretch here in lake effect country.

My main concern now is too much of a NW move down in the SE over time. We don't want to see places like BHM/ATL/BNA getting accumulating snow from this, if that happens there would be a higher chance this has mixing issues up here.

I kinda want to see my parents get a foot in SC

I see this a lot with hurricane tracking - where an EPS ensemble mean will have a fairly weak low pressure signal a week out which actually correlates to a substantial risk of formation. Since each ensemble member is seeded differently, the differences in the model outputs between each ensemble will compound frame by frame a la butterfly effect. To have a defined and visible low pressure system so relatively far out means that many of the ensembles are in agreement. Many of those members likely have something much deeper - but even whiffs and variations in track isn't enough to mute the signal.

This was the same lead time where everything shifted NW. We lost the long flat overrunning look on the 00z runs on Jan 19 and it became evident that we were going to amp up. The CMC was the first to show this.

Funny, I feel like you wouldn’t be making this statement if you were here for the storm. Stop acting like a child and move on. Nobody cares that you missed the storm. I

This clown map looks like a guitar. I think TWC should name this one Prince. I will see myself out.

This solution is pretty incredible. Its literally a piece of the PV lobe breaking off and phasing with a piece of energy in the STJ. The heights would be anomalously low for our area if it were to actually occur. Its extremely rare and also why we should understand the high bust potential of this. Let's hope it works out for a change.

They call these clown maps for a reason. Really, multiple reasons. A: They have an unbelievable look. B: They're funny as hell. I mean, I don't understand fluid dynamics, so I shouldn't talk. But I know climo, and there's no way that this map is ever going to verify even if the storm took the track that was advertised. Bring on the King.

Thing looks like a fuckin hurricane on the CMC

An ensemble mean showing that kind of 500mb evolution is the equivalent of an ensemble showing a U.S. hurricane strike from a week out imo. For so many members to respond this way is a very strong signal for a high end event. Can and likely will change to be sure, but it makes you sit up.

GFS AI Ens continues its trend NW.

Dang it, I don’t like it when we have several models in agreement this far out. Fingers crossed this storm will be different but seeing clown maps like this 5 days out sucks!!

Actually think we're in a really good spot right now. Ridge out west is pretty far west giving us plenty of wiggle room to shift NW. And big storms almost always shift NW

Not to be an ass, but your roof must be pretty unstable. This is pure fluff for the time being.

I agree..vort is 50-100 miles east of where CMC has it most the eastern Valley loses the lift needed. The surface low off the coast only offers maybe some better moisture transport to the 850. Think we are 100% dependent on the 850...surface LP is just too far off (unless the whole setup can go negative tilt and phase together sooner)

Bc these runs tn are closed off so far south that its starts to occlude early and drift east. I still think the models tn were a step in the right direction.

Good trends, So close to something huge.

I’m kind of hoping this one misses. The piles at the end of my driveway are already shoulder high and I’m running out of room. With temps this week bitterly cold not much will melt. Starting to worry about my roof collapsing.

A ton of energy there…but why is it insane at 6 days out?

Models are still east so there's no perfect solution on display.

I have that feeling too for the same reasons you mentioned but it's close enough to keep our interest at the very least.

Can someone post the GEFS member snowmaps?

Well, the CMC is clearly on crack. But what I wouldn't give. That would be the largest snowstorm of my life, it would beat 2010

Thermonuclear detonation. What a beaut it was. Absolutely not. Any backyard that isn't mine is the enemy.