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Still looks like a nice upslope event with possibly a Lake Michigan connection

Regardless of how the potential snow event pans out on the 16th, some legit cold is going to drop into CONUS, east of the Rockies through southeast. Many places east of Missouri River will remain cold throuhh end of month and throuhh beginning of February according to models and the CPC. Inherently; that should lead to increased chances for wintry weather, especially for those in the south and central US where winter has been absent. If these trends continue, it can be a real winter redeemer for much of the US (except from the Rockies to west coast where it seems destined that winter will not arrive this season)

Gfs folded. Threat is done

Gfs folded. Threat is done

Has that really been the case lately?

GFS looks like the Euro now for the first wave.

The gfs should be retired

It's a nothing burger. Peace out, y'all. I'll wait until tomorrow evening but I think this one might be dead.

Ok, let's see if we can conjure up this cape storm

Yeah the GFS shifted towards model consensus unfortunately.

Gonna head over to the LR thread and track this Cape storm.

Just kinda looks like that southern feature runs too far out ahead of the northern stream energy. Maybe the coastal can develop quick enough to throw some moisture overhead as the main ull swings thru.

I look forward to Carvers and others input here honestly. .

If the Euro Ai doesn’t show a snowstorm under 144 hours, it ain’t happening. One of my new life rules. .

The critical shortwave on the 0z GFS is slightly further east this run. Crossing WI instead of MN. That's probably not good.

trof aint digging at all

Ya a cut off low over Michigan probably ain’t good.

Yeah I’d lean in the camp where most of the models are. GFS has been on an island the entire time. Not sure how it impacts the wave behind it but I think if this continues to trend deamplified then the following wave would follow suit

I'm going to just be quiet from here on out unless there's anything good to say. I have nothing now.

Well we’re off to a bad start then

Waiting for the rest to update, intrigued so far. .

Nothing standing out so far 0z vs 18z

Wut?

Did I ever tell anyone that in my mind's eye, I picture Chuck as Napolean Dynamite?

finally a touchdown lol