All Activity

Folks, I recommend that snowman and others not look at the Euro Weeklies today. I’d instead go outside and enjoy the fantastic Canadian air! And Happy New Year! May 2026 be dominated by more Canadian air! Keep in mind that the EW are essentially the extended 0Z EPS. The 12Z EPS trended better with the western ridge and that won’t be reflected on the EW.

It’s been 9 years since I seen over a 7” storm. I’ll take snow all the time over once and a blue moon lol. Also it doesn’t snow there in the summer

Edited that about to fall not autumn

This (the bolded part) I was at a trucking job orientation and while I was there we got a 2 ft snowstorm. It was cool, but nowhere near as enjoyable as it would have been in my own town and my own home and property.

I actually think I would hate it if it kept snowing 100% of the time. Part of the joy is the rarity and the chase. Different strokes

HRRR has some junk before midnight, NAM nasomuch.

Snow is snow. If it’s rippin 3”+ per hour I wouldn’t be bored haha

It’s a very deep SGZ so that helps even in light snow. Still think 3-4” is a heavy lift but if you have very good snow growth, then you can fluff your way to 3” on like 0.13” of liquid. I just hate using ratios to try and get there…because I’ve seen good soundings before but if the lift ends up too weak or not organized, you don’t realize the potential.

Definitely gonna do the lake effect chase in the coming years but it’s “fake effect” snow too, imo. Honestly think it would get boring to live there.

That’s fine. The accumulation of road salt will be enough. Also wouldn’t be the first time we’ve been a relative min recently

I was there once and chased in the 90s. Insanity!

My pre-season idea was for big +TNH to take over second half of January following a mid-month reflection event...this is also a great wave 2 precursor pattern for my forecast PV split in February.

It doesn't matter, people enjoy the 4-6 hour rush. There's nothing like snow in our backyards. We wouldn't treasure it the way we do if we averaged 180" a year, it's all a part of the mentality. Having to drive 8 hours for it and then back after is definitely the worst part. The chases are awesome for sure, but that's why a chase like DCL on MLK a few years ago for 20+" 2 hrs from home is epic but easier.

Been watching it regularly also. That band just seemed to jump to the north. Looks like you can see the dark clouds from that band on the 1st cam feed. I've caught many salmon around that bridge. Cool little town especially if you like fishing/hunting.

I know what OPS is, but anything newer, I have no idea. At one time, it would all have been in my brain.

I actually prefer this look to a massive almost stationary anomalous block... Massive blocks are often associated with suppression issues? Most big dog events are within -/+ NAO transitions, anyways. All in all, I'm good playing tag with offshore ridge.

True dat. The January Thaw is not a myth.

Hopefully we actually get the EPO poleward like that. If so, it’s a decently cold look but also not suppressed…to support your analysis of it being a more storm-friendly pattern here. It is a bit riskier with the SE ridge lurking, but we have been through enough of these patterns to know that sometimes you need to play with fire to get the goods.

Ya but it doesn’t last for hours on end

Eh...depends...worked out okay in January 2022 and January-February 2015.

yeah, it really has been like that recently... i can think of multiple times in the last few years. when you're cold, you're cold

Yeah but the tropical forcing since fall has been more or less into the MC/WP with Rossby and Kelvin waves none the less a standing wave just as well.Its one reason why you see East Asia keep troughs in East Asia continous

Every time the EURO has a shitty evolution, it's right...never fails. It's seemingly only ever wrong when it's desirsble.

It looks like the Detroit general area is getting into more accumulating snow now

Here's what they're talking about..the HREF does have ens mean >1" per hour for east CT into RI and SE MA. seems really aggressive to me but if snow growth is good i could see 0.5-1/hr for a time i dunno about much more than that. I think Kevins area down to ginx is good for 1-2" total and probably NW CT hills with upsloping and possible squall line after that. Still think C-2 is the best call r/n for CT especially considering hit or miss squalls after midnight. Areas in E CT prob closer to 2 and i could def see far SW CT struggling to get more than flurries to a coating. I didn't break out BUFKIT for this one but i agree with them the snow growth looks good in the DGZ for CT. 18Z Nams are pretty wet with .1-.25QPF for most of CT