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Torch !!!

Textbook El Niño “Gill response” pattern showing up on the models come the end of this month going into June….

4 days of extreme heat and then we go back to low 60s with rain and clouds for 4 days straight lol at least it'll feel nice after the heat

Despite what the record says, the Orioles are actually worse than they were last year at this time. This is actually very sad baseball. On the flip side, the Nats got some great young talent that actually know how to play baseball and are having fun. I'd be excited to watch these young hitters this season.

Managed 77F here. A little bit of an over performer

Region 3.4 OISST RONI up to almost +0.6C (+0.57C) and climbing on the daily Traditional OISST ONI at +0.98C

It's literally every day. And yeah not great for the allergies either

Looks like 82 will do it for the high with the 1655 reading at CEF. Might tack on an 85 or so tomorrow.

and pollen…

That line fizzled but the outflow from it is very refreshing.

Poaching this off Spaceweather.com but I thought you ENSO geese might find this interesting... SUPER EL NIÑO, IS THE TERMINATOR TO BLAME? Headlines are buzzing with news that a super El Niño is forming in the Pacific Ocean. A solar physicist saw it coming 3 years ago. A super El Niño like this one in 1997 is now forming in the Pacific Ocean. In a 2023 paper, Robert Leamon of NASA and the University of Maryland (Baltimore County) made a striking prediction: The next El Niño would arrive in 2026. He based it on the Terminator, a magnetic event on the sun that ends one solar cycle and ignites the next. Averaging the past five solar cycles into a "standard cycle" and projecting it forward, Leamon found that El Niños follow about five years after a Terminator. The most recent termination event happened in December 2021, putting the next El Niño squarely in 2026. His model says nothing about the strength of this El Niño, but the timing is spot-on. Leamon and his colleague Scott McIntosh had previously shown that every Terminator since the 1960s coincided with a flip from El Niño to La Niña. Their work correctly predicted the onset of a triple-dip La Niña in 2020 and revealed an unexpected connection between the sun and the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation). Adapted from Fig. 5 of Leamon (2023), this chart highlights two apparently successful predictions based on the Terminator No one knows how the sun exerts control over the ENSO. Most researchers favor "top-down" models: Solar activity alters the top of Earth's atmosphere, making changes that percolate down to affect the weather we experience near Earth's surface. But the actual mechanism is unknown. At first (2021), Leamon and McIntosh thought cosmic rays were responsible. Galactic cosmic rays vary with the solar cycle, and they influence the ionization of Earth's atmosphere. But later (2023) Leamon himself weighed in against cosmic rays, noting that the timing didn't work. He currently favors a correlation with geomagnetic activity. The search for a sun-El Niño connection is as old as El Niño itself. Sir Gilbert Walker, who discovered the "Southern Oscillation" (the SO in ENSO) in the early 1900s, tried and failed to find a link to sunspots. Throughout the 20th century, other researchers likewise struggled to make the connection. The Terminator, however, is a new concept articulated by McIntosh and Leamon in a series of papers starting 10 years ago. It seems to do a good job of predicting solar cycles and may be successful with ENSO as well. It will take more than 1 or 2 successful predictions to build confidence in this model, but it's a good start. Let the El Niño begin.

Dying!

Yea, still pretty difficult to get a full day of sun here. Mostly sunny forecast yesterday and today turned into mostly cloudy conditions by late afternoon. Temps are great, though.

hahaha.... I had just provided a bit more colorful way of describing that bold key aspect there... - although you can tell the GFS' recent runs have been just ackin' to blue line us again. It's like scheming to put out a model run with Feb heights one last time

The important thing is that it’ll likely be mostly cloudy and windy.

max 75.7º

Mentally it's a happy feeling knowing summer is now ahead of us and there's no stretches of cold nonsense following this.

Big miss today. Thought it would be way warmer.

Yes please! Let's do the dews.

142.3" season total here. Got fringed by the 2/22-23 blizzard and the 1/25-26 storm underachieved locally, but generally an okay, near average snowfall winter here. Pack retention was decent though due to persistent cold with a peak depth around 36".

I was glazing some old windows on the garage. Getting the house painted next month. Glazing windows is right behind paying taxes... just saying.

Thats one way of putting it.

Great review of the forecast, Ray. Thanks for the write up. It was interesting and educational to read.

Nice but very dry, lets ramp up the humidity!

just a psychobabble guess but it 'might' have something to do with the fact that the forecast doesn't have a chance of rain changing to snow barely two f days from now. When that's the case, it kind of takes the joy out of a day like this ... curse for being weather-aware. Lot of folk don't even really look or care to look at the 'cast, they just head out - great! But if we know it's got a short window it kind of sours it a bit. Top 3 if not top 1 day here as far as I can tell. DP 42 with 79 and wind down to zephyr breezes ... not sure what else Earth can do to sponge bathe our balls and bring us deserts...