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Euro is slowly improving. Lets keep that up, and get some others onboard. We really don't need anything dramatic, just increments. I'll admit, I really thought this was toast, but it's certainly still there

Six inches…shovel it. The exercise will be beneficial. If you had a a foot…then of course blow it.

Is that Jeff in the woods pointing the gun?

Something is up with the Srefs. Next to no snow up north and precip is mainly across the MA. Check out Pivotal maps for latest 2 runs. Gotta be wrong. Here's the link to 9z total qpf off Srefs. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=qpf_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025122409&fh=87&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

That’s a nice haul. Big white Xmas for you.

Not sure what your point is. The NBM and NWS maps for yesterday were quite good, except for NYC proper, where it was slightly warmer and little accumulation occurred. I'm 25 miles SW of CPK along 95 and got 0.8" vs. a 0.5" prediction - the only reason I can think of why NYC didn't get accumulation was the heat island effect.

I wouldn't be surprised if temperatures dropped to low 20's with those dynamics! saturday morning will look and feel like north pole

It’s easy to forget how potent these events can be given the inverted flake jokes. But when a real deal norlun comes around they can dump over a good area in a short amount of time. It’s on that borderline of shovel or snowblow for me. If I snowblow I leave an inch that gets packed down and turns to ice or I bust my ass to get it near dirt level.

Yea, I declared a mea culpa on that last night....I was wrong on latter December blocking, though did get the emergence of Pacific troughing right...end result is I will be too warm for December. and maybe January. The stat warming last month was more impactful than I had theorized.

The Euro is showing this coming in as a wall of heavy snow scenario where the best spots for banding can pick up 3-6” of snow in 3-4 hours with excellent rates.

I like what Ryan said yesterday in that we would probably see a more consolidated band of heaver snow than what is shown. Aloft this kind of looks like crap. Have to fire up bufkit but some of the forecast soundings on the northern side of that precip shield look like crap...even within Fairfield County which I was thinking could have some potential for several inches. But still too much uncertainty to really have any concrete thoughts and that blocking we can't discount. Hopefully we'll get a bit more clarity with the 12z suite.

Strong PV doesn't necessarily mean "torch", either...

Dude, we need less of this in the thread. Just disagree and move on...

Agreed. I am not seeing much NW movement of the models, just movement of the heaviest snow which unfortunately is a fairly narrow band.

It would be no surprise whatsoever if the Jan SPV at 10 mb is stronger than avg as that’s been what the extended EPS has shown on most runs since Dec 3rd: Dec 3rd run: goes stronger than avg ~Jan 2nd and then gets stronger to end of run (Jan 17th): 12/23 run: goes stronger than avg on Jan 3rd and stays through end of run (Feb 6th): But a stronger than avg SPV would by no means automatically be a death sentence to a cold E US. Example: Jan of 2025 had a near record strong SPV at times.

Yes it's low to mid 20s so even if its busts by a few degrees its still 27 or 28 when the precip gets going. Concern is the mid layers and how far ne that warm air gets. The models tend to underdo that. I'll expect mixing up to 78 sw of nyc. But hopefully after at least 3 to 5

Man, take a look at these clusters from the EPS 00z run last night. Very clearly we've trended to the getting an actual block to form in the first place scenario. So here's the 5-7 day period now. All of them with the big Atlantic block, and the 3rd one just goes ape with it. Then beyond that, in the day 10-15 range. The leading scenario transitions from that, to a good old fashioned west based NAO block.

As I see it now my inkling is that the block is too far east and like most times over past few years the cold air is booted NE and outta of southeastern Pennsylvania. I think our true potential down here in southeastern Pennsylvania is 1-3” of snow then flip to sleet / freezing rain. This is kind of a repeat from yesterday just more energy and moisture to work with. It’s clear favored areas are NE Pennsylvania as far south as Doylestown points east and northeast from there. 4-7” Doylestown points NE. I would go winter weather advisories southeastern Pennsylvania western New Jersey and winter storm watches northern Montgomery County Bucks County points NE. Subject to change but best guess right now. it would take a fairly strong block to keep the torch of airmass in the central and western United States from advancing east bound.

More could fall after 7am up there I'm guessing

Based on the stationary look of things here, I'm guessing I'm done. 13"--exceeded my hopes and expectations.

This time the cold air will be in place. The other storm the cold air was coming in after the precipitation started.

Just took a core. 6.4”/0.51” final

Lol…not the same as the ocean obviously. But ya you’re on some water.

Oh, I always want to see it at 50mb...sometimes 10mb is too high up to really do much.

I'm on the water---but it's the Kennebec, not the ocean. About 15 miles up river from Popham.