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A very good discussion, IMO. It describes what appears to be a reasonable worst-case scenario, although it should be noted that 4 EPS members now show 6" or more. It touches on the lack of phasing, which is a consistent theme given the wide separation of energy and front-running northern piece.

Is he saying winter is basically over after 28th with major heat wave likely after we get through phase 3 and possible snow from 20th - 28th?

Lol. Damn autocorrect. I've written snow so many times, it apparently just figures any word starting with the letter "s" is snow. Should have been stuff.

Gift cards and scotch are in the mail for the three shadow mods.

When was the last time we had 100% snow cover for 18 straight days?

You're talking about the year the Superbowl was in the Meadowlands? Starting game time temp was 48° and 8 hours later, while some were still returning home in the early am, the snow began and the city ended up with over 8 inches. If the snow started 6-8 hours earlier it would have been the most memorable Super bowl for weather of all time.

My town, Two Harbors.

The northern stream shortwave on the 18z NAM looks a little better positioned to bring precipitation north at 48 hours.

The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi · 1h We are about to go into the wildest phase of the MJO you can have in Feb, phase 3. The Feb 5-13 1994 example of what phase 3 can do ( followed by the heat wave right after in 4/5/6) was the greatest case study this year NYC had 2 snowstorms with a total of 22 inches on the ground by the 12th, then was 62 8 days later! This year's target dates in comparison probably 20-28. That not to say 22 inches in NYC. Just to say a lot of wild weather west east centered in the lakes and northeast likely during that phase 3 time

Who knew. I never noticed it in all these years. Do we have to address you as Sir IrishRob17 now?

ICON-EPS has about 58% chance of measurable at NYC and 12% 1" liquid. That's a relatively small spread between the extreme outcomes. AIFS-EPS has only 2% chance of 1" of liquid. That continues the theme of a likely miss but small chance of a big hit. Kind of unusual at this short lead time over the past 5 years.

2014?

Baja blast, avocado vortex, and now this. This one needs to happen or your LLC is in serious jeopardy.

Still have 7" avg of glacier around the yard. This one lingered for quite a while.

Listen if that happens I will own ALLLLLLL of it and take my shots with little complaint, hahaha BUT if we are still tracking this by Wed and then it goes poof I'm just gonna sit here giving y'all side eye

A balmy 33F here, feels like mid June. Refreshing. Still have 7" avg glacier pack around. Sun angle feels nice though.

The setup for the Feb 24 window is this yea -pna but that’s about as good an Atlantic setup as we can get and later in the season is when this kind of thing can work. The cape wave merges with NS wave rotating around the TPV to form a nice 50/50 coupled with continued ridging in the southwest NAO domain! We would need timing but we get some cold air delivery behind the wave on the 20-21 and with that 50/50 developing it could hold off the SW flow for a few days creating a window of opportunity for something. With the crap pacific that’s what we’re looking for. Windows. We won’t have wall to wall cold in that look. But with the Atlantic and wpo we should get opportunities to time something up.

still time for this to trend north! i've seen this happen back in the day after a super bowl i forget the year NAM picked it up we got 8 inches in central park. Picked it up Friday, snowed monday

Operational 12Z GFS and ECMWF came a bit north with the low track, but ensembles still support a low track well south of the area Sunday night into Monday with a low chance for a light accumulating snowfall. Best chance at this time will continue to be across the NYC/NJ metro and Long Island. Right now, have no snow accumulation across the area. However, a reasonable worst case at this time would be an inch or two at the coast and less than an inch inland. Models never phase the two streams for a more amplified system. On occasion, there has been some subtle north/south adjustments. Temperatures during this time are just below normal with highs in the 30s to around 40 and lows in the upper teens inland to the 20s at the coast.

The winter of 1981-82 was legendary in many parts of the Midwest. I had just moved to the Chicago suburbs at age 7, so unfortunately I don't remember it. It's probably the benchmark winter for MSP. 3"+ of snow cover for 130 consecutive days, from 11/19 through 3/28. Dec had a -5F departure from current normals. Jan was a -14F departure, including 7 mins in the -20s. Feb had a -5F departure, and Mar -4F. Record depth 38" on Jan 23rd after back-to-back 17" snowstorms. Strangely enough, November was very mild until the 19th, then the bottom fell out and the fun began. Also, Chicago hit -26F on 1/10, 2nd coldest on record, and also hit -25F on 1/16 and -23F on 1/17. I think the -40C H85 isotherm showed up in the lower 48 that January, which is incredibly rare. INL hit -45F on 1/17, and had an average daily low temp of -23F in Jan 1982. That's unbelievable. And INL had 148 consecutive days of 1"+ snow cover, from 11/25 through 4/21. Then, 3 days later, it hit 82F on 4/24, as if to say "ok, we're done with winter now". Fun times...

Bold! I like it.

Still ~4 inch snow cover at Washington Sq Park.

I’ve given it a couple days but I do believe this Sunday storm possibility is pretty much cooked for us. The streams look to stay separate and this southern stream wave looks to shoot straight out under us. Still a possibility precip gets into the southern tier below the turnpike, as the op Euro and GFS still suggest but other guidance doesn’t get anything into PA. Some EPS support for the Euro op with measureable snow into PA while the NBM has virtually no swath of snow now.. as GEFS, Canadian ensemble and short term guidance like the NAM et al don’t get precip into PA. AI Euro an outlier showing a more substantial snowfall in the Sus Valley and warning amounts in Philly/NJ. Overall, it’s something I’d put at like 20-30% for a chance of a period of lighter snow in places like Gettysburg-York-Lancaster. Other issue in the event we get precip into southern PA could be temps. They look to top out near 40 Sunday and then likely only cool to around freezing during the timeframe of any impacts of the storm. P-type should be snow as I think the column would cool enough but I think surface temps would make any impacts (roads, non snow surfaces) minor.

Damn if I knew they served that... Can you order that delivery?

Child I just stated it. I’m in full agreement that 0-11” forecast will be confirmed