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If there was zero predictive skill prior to the 2023 entire planetary systemic bounce in temperature by a whole degree C spanning a single month in spring, how is it that humanity knows what will result if they start tinkering with seeding?

I updated one of our favorite storms of this sub-forum, and one of mine as well. Got into the meat of it in the CT band that rotated and pivoted overhead with a final of 14.4". Only 24hrs before hand we holding out hopes that the NAM & RPM were right. But last minute positive trends turned this into a major storm for 95 and a historic storm for the NY/NJ metro area. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-23-2016

I haven’t posted much this month because there hasn’t been much to post about except warmth and snowmelt. After a good winter, it’s been a very disappointing March.

A nice unexpected unadvertised spring stretch coming up Friday through Sunday

16 yesterday morning will probably be the last teens for this spring but freezes will probably extend into early May.

Seems like it's mostly the operational GFS? The Euro and CMC ( though the latter only out to 10 days) appear to be seeded by anti CC moles in the modeling division of their foreign sources. heh but the operational GFS is trying to lift the ambient polar boundary somewhat N. It's not obvious like you said. "sighs". But it's coherent enough. Shit, we're after the Equinox in a coffee break. Eventually, the Euro/CMC are going to lose to the fact the June is still coming. In other words, seasonality gives a nod to the operational GFS.

Charts just flying around the chicken coop..

7am snowdepth down to 3” Today is likely the last day of 1”+ snowcover at MSP for now. There have been 89 days of 1”+ snowcover this season. Average is 100

Low of 32 but I was lower prior to midnight. I think 30 was the true overnight low. Shaping up to be a beautiful weekend.

Could see you hips and lips shoveling a path to the chickens to this song.

Marquette had a very solid 18" pack a week ago before getting that dump, there are massive piles there for sure. Cool videos too of highway crews working on opening up the country roads.

Shoot me. Just enough to be a PITA. I’m all set with the wintry truffle butter.

Cold and cloudy for the East, warm, sunny and dry for the West, that pretty much describes this winter. Snowfall in the Rockies has been much below normal with some resorts now closing early. Brighton, Utah which I follow regularly has had 233" of snow so far while the full season average is 500". Down in the Salt Lake Valley my cousin says only 1" this winter. Could be water shortages ahead. Currently an historic heat wave is underway with temps at monthly extremes. Here in Eastern North Carolina 28F yesterday and 30F this morning, very cold for us. https://www.powder.com/news/lake-tahoe-resorts-close-heat-wave

Reversion to the March 2020s snowfall mean following all the great 2010s Marches. March Monthly 2020s Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.1 0.1 2026 T T 2025 0.0 0.0 2024 T T 2023 0.1 0.1 2022 0.4 0.4 2021 T T 2020 T T March 2010s Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 6.0 6.0 2019 10.4 10.4 2018 11.6 11.6 2017 9.7 9.7 2016 0.9 0.9 2015 18.6 18.6 2014 0.1 0.1 2013 7.3 7.3 2012 0.0 0.0 2011 1.0 1.0 2010 T T

We got 1 to 3 March 9, 2022. Its every other decade. 2030 through 2039 will likely be similar to 2010 through 2019 which was a great decade for March snow).

I found it interesting that only 4 winters since 1970 had 5 or more inches of snow for both December and March. Its usually one or the other except for extreme winters like 93/94, 95/96, 02/03 and 17/18. Even the great winter of 13/14 was a shutout in March.

US National Weather Service State College PA 3/19/2026: It's been 6 weeks. Since Groundhog Day: Harrisburg has swung from colder than normal to generally warmer than normal. There hasn't been much snow at all. What did Phil say?

Another morning, more clouds

Everyone says how bad the clouds are in the great lake region, especially the snowbelts off Ontario. I've been following and comparing it to here. We seem to be as bad or worse. I've seen about 3 sunny days since the cold ended in Feb.

Yeah, the record ridge covering the West into Central states completely overpowered the pattern with warm and dry for much of the country. So we have moved past the usual old school La Niña correlations. This is now the age of the super 500 mb ridge that is going to cancel your winter in the locations where it gets stuck stuck in place. Climatologist49 ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬ Follow A remarkable 42% of the Contiguous U.S. had record Dec-Feb 500 mb heights. 10:41 PM · Mar 8, 2026

Ski Resorts Close Early https://www.powder.com/news/lake-tahoe-resorts-close-heat-wave

Not a typical La Niña snow distribution. You’d at least expect the NW and N Rockies to do very well and better in the upper Midwest. NNE still has a ways to go but they usually do very well also in a Nina.

The lake effect zones usually do pretty well unless there is a strong El Niño.

Depends....if this burgeoning +ENSO is as strong as some guidance implies, I think it will be plenty discernible, albeit perhaps with some residual cool ENSO residue.