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Dew Point falling, spirits rising.

He was about 2 miles from like 2.5”. I’d say I was right. He also seems to run a little low on the rain front, but seems to get a little excited and perhaps angles the ruler a bit too much during winter.

39F at the top of the Gondola at 11am. 55F in the valley. It feels like real fall today.

It was far too dewey last night, NW flow put a stop to that. Winds increasing and leaves falling at my locale.

While disappointed by the loss to the Eagles, that game gave me the vibe of JD5's first game against the Bucs, I knew they were going to lose, but hoped the signs were there that the team could compete. Last year being a complete wash, I think this game, particularly the second half, could be a harbinger of some better days this year. I think there is real shot to emerge 2-2 or 3-1 out of the first quarter.

That’s a stunning storm east of Hawaii. Great grab, could fit the entire big island in the eye

Little back door front tomorrow will be quite nice for NC peeps but SC and Ga will have to wait

Absolutely gorgeous out right now with a cool breeze. Not a cloud in sight.

it was much better than I had expected. The call on the 2pt conversion was asinine though. WTF was that.

Rain just started here. Temps will be stuck in the upper 50s most of the day. Looks like a quality fall soaker, we need it.

My kids will be in their late 70s, I’ll be 109

Good to hear! When I left for work this morning I was stunned at how humid it still was. Dewpoint was 62, now it's down to 53.

Definitely a fall-like feel. Winds blowing in the upper 20s.

Been 12 for me. I know NWS Blacksburg is having a basic class on the 17th at VT. Bit too far to go to. When I took what was then a 'refresher' back in 2014 at the local community college they even let me give a small spill/push for CoCoRaHS at the end to the other folks there.

I and others have been posting what the model trend has been for later this autumn for the various Nino regions (clearly downward), but am not suggesting anyone “trust” what the CFSv2 (or any model for that matter) shows since model progs sometimes verify poorly. Regardless of model imperfections though, a good portion of this and other forecasting discussion threads typically centers around the trends of model output even though the output isn’t typically “trusted”. Models are very useful tools even though they’re not at all crystal balls and thus can bust badly. I’ve found over the many years that I’ve been following them that model prog trends are quite worthy of discussion since they often give good hints on what’s actually liable to occur down the road regardless of their imperfections. A good example of another current forecasting thread that follows model trends is this one in the Mid-Atlantic forum that I and some others here also post in and which I recommend others check out:

DP 54F....that's all you need to know.

It’s been 13 for me hahaha

Yeah missed FG and extra point shouldn’t have happened. But given how awful they looked last year, take the small win to only lose by 2!

Meh, looks like Fall arrives next week. Gotta enjoy this weather while we have it.

To verify sure, there’s no requirement in how one gets there. It’s more about trusting the prognosis to begin with. Say it’s 100 in Atlanta. A model says starting tomorrow, we will see the forecast high drop 5 degrees every day for the next 6 days. So in a few days it’ll only get to 80 in Atlanta. It’s now tomorrow, and the high didn’t drop 5 degrees. It’s 99. Continue on to the next day, it’s 100 again. Why should I trust what the model is saying 3 weeks out when it’s making such a massive forecast error 2-5 days out?

Today’s weekly relative update (which has been NOAA’s official way of measuring these for quite awhile now) for last week cooled in Nino 1+2 from +3.9 to +3.7 and in Nino 4 from +0.1 to -0.1. Meanwhile, Nino 3 warmed from +2.7 to +2.8 while Nino 3.4 warmed from +1.8 to +2.0: 02SEP2026 3.9 2.7 1.8 0.1 09SEP2026 3.7 2.8 2.0 -0.1 This is the comparable week in 1997: 10SEP1997 3.8 2.6 1.8 0.5 This tells me that 2026 remains more E based than 1997 and was thus for another week the most E based on record for this time of year.

yes there is