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The GFS is a embarrassment to this country

I think the jack might be a bit further west at elevation. Thurmont maybe

12z Euro ensembles are a bit east but most give us some snow but no real high end potential

Eps

GFS is so bad with this kind of setup. The model isn't designed for East coast snowstorms and unfortunately it sucks at them. I'm sure it may be superior in a bunch of areas. Not this.

He is soooo annoying.

Stay in the Richmond, VA “anals” please

The GFS is now in NAM at 84 hr territory

Whelp, I’m out for tonight, good to see the other models come more towards the GFS than vice-versa tonight. Hopefully that trend continues tomorrow with a little more latitude thrown the GFS’ way

1) Knickerbocker 2) 2/23/26 3) 1899 4) PD1

For a model with an over amplified bias it’s been a huge letdown

I also lost 18 inches from 12z on the GFS should I never log back on

I think you'll score. but maybe 3-6" instead of the largest snowstorm on record at DCA that the GFS depicts.

Not really. It has been consistently a fail for us. And it makes sense at the upper levels.

The initial wave isn’t from the IVT, it’s from the interaction of the northern and southern streams. The IVT only comes into play once the low starts to head well east. It actually mostly misses us on this run and slams York/Lancaster.

He's not even looking at the GFS when it comes to climo though. It is so far out of what everything else is saying.

So euro was extremely disappointing

Do you know where you are this is thunderdome

If I had to guess I’d say the AIFS ensembles will be a little east as well, lower heights ahead of it, a little more lingering of that stupid SE Canada malarkey

An IVT working out in the metro area is as likely as the Nats winning the WS this year

Tight gradient like you read about.

I'd be thrilled to get 5 inches from this. I'm glad the bad trends of the last couple days stopped and we're headed back in the right direction tonight. A light to moderate event looks likely.

10:1. SV doesn't kuchie or update their windows 96 like graphics