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February 2015 had exceptional warmth in the western third of the CONUS.

Seems like it's warmer than I expected today. Starting to get little puddles of water. Guess this will make refreeze a problem though.

18z NAM looks better then 12z

It's impressive, especially when one considers that the cool anomalies over the Atlantic bring down the areal average. My guess is that near record/record warmth could be possible in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies.

D.C. (Union Station - 33') NW Arlington (358') 12/05: 1.5" 1.5" 12/14: 0.4" 1" 1/25: 8" (SN/IP) 8.5" (SN/IP) TOTAL: 9.9" 11"

We enjoyed watching it fall and rapidly pull up. I did not enjoy shoveling my driveway and patio rooftop that had 2 feet pulled up from the drifting with a flat blade shovel.

you cant trust models this far out they change day to day..

Hit 32F

HRRR has more utility than the SREFs but agree with the sentiment. Just wanted to kick off the 18z cycle with a decent run!

very juiced, not concerned about the placement, could def see a move north 00z

Yeah both VDay 2016 and Feb 4 2023 hit -9 at PVD which is the lowest in my lifetime and it's not even close. Jan 16 2004 hit -6 that's the next lowest. I would like to see a really potent cold wave with -15 to -20 at PVD but the odds of that happening don't seem especially good. I think we are more likely to get a 110-115F heat wave than break 1934 all time record low.

Nope. Not falling for it again.

@ADB83 shared it on here about an hour ago. I dont know how to pull up the snowfall map

Feels like summeh out there. Mid 30s

I am not sure why you are surprised. It has happened to us many, many times in the past and many times this winter.

I thought it always came north? I said that in a goofy voice lol! Lol!!

in 2 days the pattern for Mid Feb went amazing to heinous. How does that happen so quickly? Is it that sudden? there are no step backs?

At 3pm my temperature at home was 32.8, making it the first time above freezing since January 23rd.

@donsutherland1, what do you think of this projection? When I see a week-long, ensemble average showing an areal anomaly of +3.66F over that big of an area - keep in mind, it's not averaging just the CONUS, but that entire map inset - that looks significant to me. Like possible record-breaking warmth in places.

Where are you viewing Weathernext?

West Chesterfield/Magnolia Green area got hit hard on December 9 or whatever that Monday was. 5 inches here. Didn't even have a flake Saturday afternoon and evening. Edit-Dec 8

Some light at the end of the tunnel, especially for our western friends.

Looks like we get a relaxation next week and wait to see how this polar vortex disruption affects us. I hope we stay snow covered until May... Polar vortex to lock brutal cold over eastern US for most of February Brutal midwinter cold is settling in across the eastern United States, and forecasters say it is not leaving quickly. A disrupted polar vortex is expected to keep Arctic air locked over the region through much of February, turning what is already a harsh stretch into a prolonged test of infrastructure, energy systems, and basic winter preparedness. Instead of a quick cold snap, the pattern shaping up points to repeated waves of frigid air, severe wind chills, and frequent storms tracking along the boundary between deep cold and milder air to the south. I see a setup that blends complex atmospheric science with very down-to-earth consequences, from higher heating bills to dangerous commutes and stressed power grids. At the heart of this pattern is a weakening and splitting of the Polar Vortex high above the Arctic, a process that specialists link to sudden stratospheric warming. High in the atmosphere, a rare burst of warmth is disrupting the typically tight ring of westerly winds that circles the pole, a structure that High Arctic winds Typically keep the coldest air bottled up. When that ring weakens or breaks, lobes of frigid air can spill south into midlatitudes, opening the door for the kind of persistent cold now aimed at the eastern United States. Meteorologist By Andrej Flis has described how New model guidance points to a Polar Vortex split and collapse in midmonth, following a Strato event that is already underway. That breakdown is expected to send major ripples through the jet stream, favoring blocking patterns that keep cold air parked over North America and Europe well into late winter and early spring, a scenario detailed in Polar Vortex research. Closer to the surface, the practical takeaway is simple: Additional cold surges through February are likely, and the odds of Much below normal temperatures across the eastern United States are high. Long-range outlooks highlight a corridor from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and New England where the freezer will stay open, a trend underscored by guidance that points to Additional surges of Arctic air. For residents from Atlanta to Boston, that means fewer thaws and more days when high temperatures struggle to climb out of the teens or 20s. Forecasters are also watching how this entrenched cold will interact with storm systems tracking along the jet stream. A much larger storm that expert Pastelok has flagged for just before midmonth could tap into Gulf and Atlantic moisture while running into entrenched cold, a combination that often produces heavy snow, ice, and strong winds. That potential high-impact system is already being scrutinized in February outlooks, which emphasize that the stormy start to the month may only intensify as the Polar pattern matures. Forecasts suggest that the polar pattern will not flip quickly. The polar vortex will keep the frigid pattern locked over the eastern US through much of the month, with cold air repeatedly reloading behind passing storms instead of retreating north. Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski has described how this setup effectively leaves the freezer door ajar, allowing frigid air to escape southward again and again, a dynamic laid out in Alex Sosnowski analyses. Parallel guidance from dedicated winter pattern outlooks reinforces that the Polar configuration favors sustained cold rather than a quick thaw. Even as the stratospheric event evolves, surface impacts will unfold in waves, not all at once. While the surface impacts usually lag the initial stratospheric warming by a week or more, the breakdown now underway has already been flagged in Typically delayed discussions of the event. Additional seasonal outlooks stress that Much below normal temperatures should persist across the eastern United States into early spring, with Additional cold surges through February reinforcing the chill, a message repeated in Additional outlooks. For now, the science points in one direction: the polar vortex is faltering aloft, and the eastern United States is squarely in the path of the cold that follows.

Evap cooling

31F @ 3pm/Sunny...hanging tight.