All Activity

Actually got more snow last night - 2"- not forecasted from a lake effect plume vs the storm of the century to our NE. You can't make this shit up!!!

Stations are fine. I have to take a look at the read up and obs

Better than Cory’s F-

How does that happen, especially for such a significant event?

If anything can be a little stronger I hope it’s the sun. This NYC bomb broke me. That was the storm of the year (or decade or even century beating 1978 if you’re Providence). Bring on spring. We got the January sleet bomb and the 2 week frozen moonscape single digit tundra. That was uber impressive and tracking that was a great ride. We can try again next year but I want to turn my outside pipes back on again and start washing my car. .

Sunday plastered the Shenandoah Valley with a very unusual snow-event. Wide variations in accumulated snowfall occurred within short distances. Similar conditions occurred in W.Va and Md./ Del. The NAM Nest 700 mb. chart illustrated a sharp trough with extreme lift turbulence over Augusta County Sunday afternoon. I received a strong inch in a heavy band while a friend a few miles away had bare ground. Luray reported a half inch while a friend a few miles away up on Tanners Ridge at 2700 ft. near Big Meadows reported at least 6 inches with high winds. When I was preparing my Newsletter early Monday I looked at local snow totals. Stuarts Draft has 3 reporting stations on the west side within a couple miles apart. One station reported 0, another reported 1 inch while #3 reported 4.5 inches! I reported 2 inches for Stuarts Draft. In question, Wintergreen reported 3 inches at 7:30 am Sunday, 6 inches at 3 pm Sunday and 15 inches at 7:30 am Monday. Is this 100% accurate?? I don't know because I didn't take the measurements. If we deny snowfall reported by the NWS because we disagree , we are hopeless. I am currently working on the last 125 years of snowfall for the Valley. I am relying on Staunton Records, Dale Enterprise Records and 60 years of personal records with occasional cross-references. Many of the people who made those records have been dead for more than 50 years. How did they measure snow? Did they use snowboards? If so, how often did they clean the snowboards? West Virginia also had as you say, 'ridiculous" reports for Sunday. Holly River State Park reported 22.5 inches with a picture of measurement on social media. 10 - 15 miles away, Webster Springs only reported 6 inches. Md/Del. also had "ridiculous" reports with 4 - 20 inches within 10-15 miles of each other at midday Monday. I'm always interested in snowfall reports but I am keenly aware that we don't live in a perfect world regarding measuring/reporting snowfall or any other factors in our lives.

Plymouth and Taunton not on list of locations where Blizzard criteria met. Guaranteed both those locations met but the stations crapped out on the reporting data.

D+ so far

@The 4 Seasons going with 21" for my spot at Lava Lake (59.5" for the season so far, and above climo). Best I could do, combining what I saw at 8am combined with some of the totals I see noted in the public info statement. Oh, and that 36mph high wind recorded at Danielson Airport (which is less than 5 miles away)... there's no way that I didn't get gusts off the lake of at least 45-50mph.

March 2-3 window still looks interesting:

This is very true. It's one thing to share thoughts with family and friends but when people's livelihoods are at stake it's an entirely different animal. So now, my forecast outlet is here. I'll be undercutting you a lot going forward, I'm quite sure of that.

Any reports of coastal damage etc. I did see wind damage to power poles on ACK and random tree stuff.

5" per NWS for here

Yeah why is no one using the Google weather model anymore?

I will "take" any snow we get, at the same time, I've now transitioned to bigger game hunting. Getting 2" of snow that is gone in 23 minutes doesn't excite me in late February and March. I'm investing in opportunities for storms that could deliver at least 6" or more. I think really it comes down to wanting to see snow on the ground for at least a day. You know, as far as sun angle goes, yesterday was exhibit A on how strong the sun is at this time of year...cloudy day, (shoot, snow was falling for a good part of it) temps in the mid 30s and yet my pack was decimated. Take the same conditions we had yesterday and move the calendar back to early January and our landscapes would have looked a lot different this morning.

Early next week still looks interesting on most models for a snow to mix scenario with a wave approaching from the center of the country.

This looks much worse than Jan 22 here, despite my complaining about being just east of the 3ft band. Gotta be at least 20"..drifts are gigantic. Unfortunately I can't measure

As @Mount Joy Snowman mentioned, most overnight models shifted south overnight for the Thursday potential light event chance, but close enough to keep an eye on. The 6z AI Euro & AI GFS are much closer for Thursday.

Google has it too. Lock it in.

I’d bet it comes close to at least threaten south of 90

Up to 2-3’ of new snows meeting a warmup and rains is never good…

A lot of models show it

Wunderground has it as well…whatever it uses

Thursday night/ Friday seems like a miss. AI is barely a graze. Still watch but wouldn’t count on it.