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The closest examples I could find since the 50's (unless my eyes are deceiving me). 1983/84 region 1+2 stayed warm through at least early winter but was a La Nina at about -1ish status. 1986-1988 timeframe we had the double Nino event but they were about moderate to strong status before we cooled down. 1991-92 went to neutral and had a bit of a lagged 1+2, went cool neutral the following winter (92-93) and then 93-94 had a warm neutral. 1997-98 went pretty well into Nina mode but was west while Nino 1+2 remained neutral before tumbling at the end 98-99 winter. 2015-16 cooled through most regions while 1+2 warmed as we went into winter of 17/18 other areas being cool neutral. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii Some correlation to a weaker Nina state but not necessarily the only outcome. It really I think depends just how the Nino state breaks down what will determine the following year. Would be interesting to look at the wind patterns for the transitions of each of these years. Edit: Again all this assuming the 1+2 does not exactly cool down which is something we will have to watch as we head into fall.

The only bright side to growing up and spending 29 years in South Carolina... You get used to bullshit like this

Its always cool to compare stats versus memory. But it does feel like we used to do much better with convection in the 90's then we have for quite some time..and by that I mean these elongated squall lines (or usually multiple) that would be draped from like Maine into the mid-Atlantic. I remember many times during the summer watching the weather channel and following the radar on the Local on the 8's and seeing these squall lines moving from NY/PA into SNE...and more times than not they would fizzle before reaching West Hartford But I also remember several times a summer getting really loud overnight thunderstorms and evenings where the sky would just be lit up from distant thunderstorms and it seemed like the lightning would just go on for hours. It seemed like every period of high heat/humidity not only came with thunderstorms but multiple instances and the overnight stuff. 1990's were the king of the squall lines (and into the early 2000's).

Dodging the main storms like a ninja again. We picked up .18 on scraps but its been amazing to see.

Thats a bold statement this far out. I have no clue why people do this every year.

I do have many of these distinct childhood memories of being at baseball games in the early to mid 90s and seeing a wall of cumulonimbus in the distance, as the sun fades under the horizon. A harbinger of actual severe storms. And also being under actual Severe Thunderstorm watches many times during the summer. Barely see anything like that now. I'd like to see some stats to justify my childhood memories.

Will be interesting. Like you said last night too, dewpoints will spike back up this evening. Something to also watch because that may boost sfc instability a bit more or even maintain, despite losing the sun. May yield some room to keep convection sfc based and maybe a wind threat continuing into the region. I think its encouraging seeing CAMs continuing with activity tonight, though I wouldn't expect them to handle it very well.

I remember that morning really well. It was one of the biggest weather events from 2006 to 2008. The only time a rotating wall cloud came right over my location in Long Beach. So NWS issued a tornado warning for my area due to how strong the rotation was on radar. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 650 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2007 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN QUEENS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... SOUTHWESTERN NASSAU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... EASTERN KINGS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... * UNTIL 715 AM EDT... * AT 644 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR CANARSIE... OR ABOUT NEAR CROWN HEIGHTS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... JAMAICA BY 700 AM... KENNEDY AIRPORT BY 705 AM... CEDARHURST BY 710 AM... WOODMERE...VALLEY STREAM...LYNBROOK AND ATLANTIC BEACH BY 715 AM. WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW IF YOU WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

Depression in Tolland

I thought the same. Weak s/w will cause some slight cooling aloft too. I did see some models on and off show convection tonight so it’s possible.

The HRRR may be a bit too aggressive with weakening that activity tonight. One big key I think will be how organized the cluster is as it develops across PA/NJ (does it develop a cold pool to sustain on?) and what we are looking at for MUCAPE. Kind of hard to see an organized cluster weaken if MUCAPE is still pushing 2000+ J

Clipper salvation winter 2026/2027

Absolutely and that shows up well on Water Vapor images. Flow from Gulf / Cuba and east of FL / Bahamas pretty much due north. Deep moist flow. PW been running close to 2" last several days.

Awful. I looked at CoCoRaHS for Aug 1-6 and almost all of Crozet Co. is 3-5 inches while Augusta is half an inch or less. Hope your luck changes

He has become convectionly numb.

Two heavy rounds yesterday especially the first one to total 0.65”

I remember the 2007 event. Some roof damage in the Bay Ridge area. I remember the low cloud/visibility that day. I keep thinking that a photo exists of the funnel cloud over the Narrows. The photo as I remember it was looking from north looking south. The funnel cloud stood out even though it was immersed in surrounding cloud. It’s probable I have events/years mixed up. As always …. .

Hopefully WCT gets trained again, keep their streak going of 5-10" events

Hands felt like two balloons ?

Welcome to Floriduh on a summer morning, thats what it looks like on the stat sheet.

There is no rain you are receiving Distant clouds show on the horizon You've thought its coming to you for days The leaves move just waiting for the spray

I only knew bc Kev mentioned it in our group text, so sprang into action an got the gage out.

Been working for three hours. Sweatball. Going to be the worst of the year.