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Not necessarily...we had neutral after 2016 were neutralish in 16-17, nina 17-18, but then niño (albeit very weak) in 18-19

5H is sick. Man give us this late January

Guess you are throwing out the Euro again.

Haven’t been on in months…I just looked at this Monday night, so before that I knew nothing about it. Was actually nice not looking at this from 8-10 days out.

Maybe we can hit 90 on Halloween.

80 degrees in my forecast, and also for the DC area next week is forecasted by Accu Weather and Mount Holly. Might only be for a day, but we are going to warm up at least into the upper 70's middle part of next week before we cool down again.

Just awful around here with close to 30 inches of rain since 7/1.

Wow! Y’all are killin’ it in the rain gauge. I got close to an inch since midnight, but your totals are much heavier.

Euro still looks pretty good to me

It will find a way to rain on the weekend especially here on the CT Shoreline. Bridgeport has seen rain nearly every weekend going back to July. I bolded the weekend days below to show how consistent this pattern has been. Rainfall Data for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026-07-01 1.03 2026-07-02 0.00 2026-07-03 0.00 2026-07-04 0.46 2026-07-05 0.95 2026-07-06 2.85 2026-07-07 T 2026-07-08 0.00 2026-07-09 0.00 2026-07-10 0.00 2026-07-11 0.00 2026-07-12 0.00 2026-07-13 0.00 2026-07-14 0.00 2026-07-15 0.00 2026-07-16 0.00 2026-07-17 0.00 2026-07-18 1.15 2026-07-19 0.00 2026-07-20 0.00 2026-07-21 2.59 2026-07-22 0.00 2026-07-23 0.00 2026-07-24 0.00 2026-07-25 0.00 2026-07-26 0.00 2026-07-27 0.00 2026-07-28 T 2026-07-29 2.90 2026-07-30 0.40 2026-07-31 0.00 2026-08-01 0.00 2026-08-02 0.02 2026-08-03 0.97 2026-08-04 0.00 2026-08-05 T 2026-08-06 T 2026-08-07 0.33 2026-08-08 0.05 2026-08-09 0.00 2026-08-10 0.02 2026-08-11 0.00 2026-08-12 0.00 2026-08-13 0.98 2026-08-14 0.04 2026-08-15 0.00 2026-08-16 0.03 2026-08-17 0.18 2026-08-18 T 2026-08-19 0.00 2026-08-20 1.36 2026-08-21 0.00 2026-08-22 0.02 2026-08-23 2.36 2026-08-24 T 2026-08-25 0.00 2026-08-26 0.00 2026-08-27 T 2026-08-28 T 2026-08-29 0.00 2026-08-30 0.03 2026-08-31 T 2026-09-01 1.12 2026-09-02 0.09 2026-09-03 0.11 2026-09-04 0.29 2026-09-05 0.12 2026-09-06 0.01 2026-09-07 0.00 2026-09-08 0.00 2026-09-09 0.00 2026-09-10 T 2026-09-11 0.00 2026-09-12 0.00 2026-09-13 4.25 2026-09-14 0.00 2026-09-15 0.00 2026-09-16 T 2026-09-17 T 2026-09-18 0.01 2026-09-19 0.00 2026-09-20 0.43 2026-09-21 0.01

The 6z GFS is looking like it may bring the first frosts to higher elevations in the longer range - d10-15

2.26" for the event so far

The record shattering streak of temps of above 60 is ended by a day with a high of (likely) 60. What a turnaround

only 12Z (yesterday) and 0Z map posted - regardless as of now all the significant impact will be from Long Island up into eastern New England regarding precip totals - wind and coastal flooding will have a high impact along the coast all the way down through the mid Atlantic region

how do you define great ? It has less then 1 inch west of the Hudson for the most part

6z

06z EURO looked pretty great for this area

While south and west of me has been very wet, I'm now in the midst of a incredibly dry period for this time of year with no precip for a solid week at least. A 1039mb high is analyzed over QC (Quebec) currently which is nuts, just a monster ridge giving us the blue skies. A preview a things to come up there in Hudson/Northern ON/QC. It was getting far too cloudy last week so this is relief but its getting chilly.

Facebook weather hypers should all be sentenced to jail

This is why tracking a system 10 days out usually leads to disappointment. The envelop is so small for a region wide hit, it’s almost definitely not going to happen as depicted at that timeframe. I’d favor the cape for real impacts right now and tapering off NW of there

1.91” for latest event imby/Columbia thru 9am Wed. Appears to be on the lower end of reports listed here.

Can we at least save Saturday? Sunday is for church and watching football.... but Saturday is for outdoor activities.

Wouldn’t call them mid level…just some low Cu. But yeah, they’re moving pretty good.

GFS suite for the past couple of days may be locking onto the New England 5H trof too much... EPS modeling insists northward moving - deepening sfc low up against a strong surface high Quebec area. The phase diagrams for the EC glom onto a weakness off the Carolinas tomorrow and make its briefly warm core before asymmetric warm core and eventually degrading cold core system. This has been ongoing modeling for several days. So it seems to me WPC took a compromise of yesterday's modeling. Nothing yet from NHC that I can find regarding a possible subtropical storm evolution so they are seeing guidance that mutes or nullify that possibility-rely on their guidance. This will probably be my last for this on the forum. It's several days of EPS vs GEFS through the 06z/23 cycle (inclusive of AI EPS). Believe what you wish- me, Im preparing my ball club for a rainout Fri night-Sun night in nw NJ and believe a decent G wind 45 MPH-rain drenched leaves taking out power all the way back to the NJ coast this weekend-esp Sat. NWS offices are onto the coastal flooding. I dont like to be embarrassed by wrong planning (relying too heavy ily on the EPS indie of 5 days) so I recommend you continue with official NWS products as your primary guide.

I noticed that yesterday looking out the window. Had to take a second and more closer look...haven't seen clouds stream in from that direction in a while. They were hauling too