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okay

Just closer and with a bigger envelope.

That’s where I’m at. Cold rain to paste

This is a useful reminder that early winter storm forecasts can change quickly, especially when key factors like temperature profiles and storm track are uncertain. Paying attention to model agreement and timing helps avoid false expectations. It is always better to watch trends over several updates rather than relying on one forecast run.

Because once it locks in, it’s coming.

Hoping for 1-3” of paste.

Snoozer here. Probably going to ruin my commute tomorrow, though

Thanks Chuck. Based on this OHC anomaly chart already showing ~+0.9C, I think your idea of a fast transition is quite believable as of now. However, keep in mind that this isn’t adjusted downward for relative (as in the RONI idea) purposes:

Last 8 runs of the AI euro.

I think everyone should remember we’ve seen this coastal type prediction several times in this range this season only for them to never materialize. The end of Jan phantom storm probably the best example. Lots of caution flags

New York City remains on course for a winter season mean temperature of 32.0° or below. Much will depend on the warmup that will conclude February. The last time that happened was in 2018-2019. Some of the guidance and a number of individual ensemble members continue to suggest that the New York City area could experience a significant or major snowfall during the February 22-24 period. That's far from a done deal, despite support from the highest-ranked operational model, the ECMWF-AIFS. For now, the possible event is a low probability, high-impact scenario. The picture should become clearer later this week. To date, New York City has seen 22.3" of snow. 7.7" of additional snowfall would bring the seasonal figure to 30.0". Were that to happen, Winter 2025-2026 would be a special winter for its combination of snowfall and cold. The last five winters to see a seasonal mean temperature of 32.0° or below and 30.0" or more snowfall were 1960-1961, 1977-1978, 1993-1994, 2002-2003 and 2014-2015.

Why? it's not that infallible I'll just remind folks ... these AI versions did at D6 or 7, pimp out yesterday's missed system, too. I think there's some recency scope bias going on and these tool reps are benefiting from it. We're turning them into celebrities prematurely? Edit: I was thinking of the end January fiasco -

plenty of cold as long as we have a the right track don't overthink stuff, this storm is going to be a huge storm! and it's quite a slow mover!

Yea, Scott...Fri night is a SWFE...exactly what that is.

Historic cold and it's only getting cold. Houston houston something is going on!

Didn’t expect much when I went to bed…woke up to 1.5” of snow. Hopefully a good sign for the week ahead. Guidance still waffling some on tomorrow but are increasingly robust for Friday.

Elaborate?

That would have a crazy deform-band...someone would be having a snow-thundergasm.

Did your snow from 1/17-1/18 melt by 1/25? I still had snow on the ground before the snow/sleet

The snowpack is slowly fading away and should be gone in the next day or two with warm temps and rain. We've had two good years in a row for snowpack retention so no complaints. Still hoping to hit 100" for the season... not too far away at this point.

heh... yeah. That ukmet 00z run. Probably the fastest total tropospheric depth differential I've ever seen, certainly in that region. And it's not from a core arrival. It's cyclogenic feedback produced! It's imploding with the mid level height core just E of NJ a rate seldom seen - somewhere in the range of 30 dm in 12 hours. That's a hyperbomb

I think if the Euro AI has the right idea (big if of course) we are going to have crashing 850s and really good ratios for the CCB. Surface temps will cooperate with that storm position in February.

Extreme Airplane voice: "Just want to tell you good luck, we are all counting on you"

we’re gonna make our way back to that crawler along the New England coast and across the canal. It was there two days ago.