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Yeah usually the high caliber model predictions don't happen. GFS was a borderine SECS for Sunday, but we busted low with 1-3" for most on here.

Am I looking at this right that the northern energy and baja energy are moving closer together and therefore phasing sooner leading to a more amplified solution? What makes the GFS different in this regard?

Yep plus the ratios. Nice run despite a little sloppy.

Happy to have ya! We’re a fairly level headed crew most days

This looks like a good candidate for ocean enhancement in the favored spots of EMA and SE NJ. Pretty high potential locally if we can avoid the GFS-type solution.

It's REALLY cold. .

Don't really think this gonna be Dec. 13 at least for DFW. That was almost all ice. Sent from my SM-S937U1 using Tapatalk

I'm staying with 6 to 10...maybe 12 if we're lucky.

Those ice amounts check out with the ol' school divide liquid QPF by 3. It would be devasting. MEM ice probs in Mississippi are 33%+ of a HALF inch which is quite high for Day 5. BNA has high six-inch snow probs. That's what I'd rather see. Model agreement on this promotes such bullish NWS comms.

45 degrees and rain. I knew it.

One final point. Here's the trend of the EPS

I am about 15 mins from Fulton county now. Only county in the state in a drought warning.

It's .8 this run .

31.1” here ytd Areas above 1000’ between port jervis & Middletown are def approaching 36”

4-8 would take some close to seasonal averages....

I really wouldn’t want to be someone living in northern GA, W NC, or E TN right now. The ice storm some of these models are spitting out is insane. QPF above 2” too. Devastating if correct.

Depending on the model it’s anywhere from Saturday night to Sunday afternoon

Follow that up w/ temps that barely get above freezing from Sat-Sat...and that is a big problem. Some temps almost assuredly will be low single digits or BZ for nighttime lows. Yikes.

If the storm wraps up late Sunday then I think a Monday flight might work. If you get a slow moving, fully phased monster that lasts till Monday afternoon then you might be doomed.

No model shows that right now. We still have alot of time so we shall see. Yes the gfs does

did it? Looks to be cut back quite a bit from 6z... A distinctly separate secondary low days later is what leads to some additional upside.

Not every winter with a cold smoke powder storm in Atlantic City

i didn't realize you guys were still behind

I’ll take a 8-12” storm

That looks really good to me?? More tucky tucky, more northern edge members, fewer OTS?