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It appears that Yellow Medicine County, MN (Population 11,404) is poised for a top 10 warm October.

GEFS look cool heading into mid-November.

The BoM has been overshooting every near month forecast by a significant margin (0.4+) since April with it averaging 0.5 too high! Oct is joining the club: Here was the forecast for Oct as of just 2 weeks ago, which had Oct way up at +3.5: Look how far down the Oct 24th MTD is: only +2.8. So, full Oct is likely going to end up at no warmer than +3.0, which would make its Oct forecast verify 0.5+ too warm and thus continue the trend that started with April: This tells me that Nov will have a good chance to end up verifying ~0.5 too warm or at ~+3.2 vs its forecast of +3.7. Either that or Dec will very likely end up as the peak. So, if BoA monthlies were to peak at, say, +3.3, then the NOAA monthlies would likely come in cooler and peak at ~+3.0 and the trimonthlies would likely peak at ~+2.8, which is where I am currently (not much change from before).

In other non-SPV news...maybe lol CFS weekilies...getting into DEC so at least interesting to look. DEC 1-11, 500mb Also notice NAO & AO take the initial dips & looks like another possible early DEC. Just stuff to yawn & watch.

Maybe some of them are. I am not sure what you're referring to. I don't follow the METS much but mostly the science nerds. The event itself interests me regardless of outcomes. It is pretty rare. And no one knows how it may or may not affect DEC much, but its certainly not beyond the realm of possibilities that it can. I just think it's wrong to be dogmatic either way. One can speak in probabilities & that's fine but 100% no one knows.

Really depends on cloud cover and rain but otherwise temps are[emoji383] .

The ensembles are a dream for folks who want to see a long, mild fall. I’m a happy camper. .

A certain local PA MET just messaged me on X and said the number that stunned him most in the study was the flip from only 19% of counties showing any statistical warming in PA with raw data to once we include the NCEI adjustments....to seeing the impressive jump to an overwhelming 95% of all counties. To quote him "things that make you go hmmm!"

I’m not saying we won’t get a trough out of it, but I have a big problem with how this it hyped.

High of 71 here today...the air quality taking a dive into "yellow" under the pressure dome. Almost looks like wildfire smoke out there. Fire danger something to watch as well.

Just curious what is state of the El Niño? Is still waining?

I smell what you did there.

Congrats Philly.

SSWs would be more exciting if we knew displaced polar air was headed our way, but we don't, at least not yet. The cold and snow might just as easily wind up elsewhere.

Makes sense because it's also been too far west, along with everything else...just less so. I'm just saying, it may very well have been best, but it's not perfect.

because the warm pool is further east

it’s totally Clickbait aimed to get weenies into subscriptions. Look at how they’re trying to categorize this. They portrayed this like it’s going to lead to some crazy epic winter wx In November.

My latest call as of Latter September was peak RONI between 3 and 3.2 and 3.4 to 3.6 for ONI during NDJ. One final assessment next week.

Got a Hot Chocolate 15K run in Chicago this Sunday. May need to ask for it iced instead haha, didn't think it'd still be this warm

Maybe the EURO is doing better than the guidance continuously underestimating El Niño, but it looks like it's been overshooting to me.

When I posted this, it may of seemed flippant, but I was serious. I will be quite the mix.