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Greenland Air Force?

GEFS becoming pretty consistent of the overall totals and area to be affected. Looks like major jumps, have turned into wobbles at this point. I would expect minor shifts each run, with the overall footprint starting to lock in.

75% chance skirts part of our subforum s and e, 15% chance entire region missed completely, 10% chance major hit Philly and burbs. Thats the way I see it attm. Need some major changes at 12z and 18z.

Too early to write it off but trend isnt good.

If February is in fact another colder than normal month, we will be at the door of a place we haven’t been in with a La Niña winter in over 30 years (1995-1996). In order to actually tie that winter with 5 months (November-March) in a row of below normal cold, March will also have to another below normal cold month, still way too early to determine March, but February will at least be off to a very good start…..

Pretty rare to see a southwest moving upper cold core and so you have to wonder how skilled would any models be in resolving future motions of the resultant energy? My subjective guess is that they would have little or no skill, so therefore the only part of any model run we can trust at this stage is out to 96-102h, what happens after that is purely conjecture from low-skill models (all of them in this case). I believe in reality you have a 50-50 shot at a significant snowstorm in DC and BAL from this foundation. NYC is probably closer to 25%, then it's back up towards 50-50 in New England (70% Cape Cod). I think it's 80 to 90 per cent locked in that s.e. VA and some parts of NC see large snowfalls, there is not going to be an inland complicating primary with this.

Those are both 0z you posted.

That's snow depth measuring what's already on the ground that isn't melting.

This is from the CIPS website...kinda fun to peruse... https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php

Spit my soda at this

GFS basically holds at 6z. It’s either going to fail miserably and cave at some point or be right. IMO this is a SEVA/ENC special. Maybe we get a glancing blow in RIC

Baltimore County closed today, 2hr delay tomorrow

0Z CFS is good; no idea if it is ever right.

I don’t know half the people posting ITT. So many new folks. So much banter.

Yeah, with heavy snow 50 miles to the south on models that never trend north, it’s time to stop tracking. See you Monday. Gonna miss your always insightful posts.

So a 60 mile shift north and we're getting the goods. 60 miles at a lead time of 4 days is nothing. Also notice the highest snowfall has backed to the south of us (S VA) in 6z instead of remaining east in 0z.

This might actually be worth chasing. That looks like a legit blizzard. Sucks we gotta travel to NC for it lol

Yes, I believe that’s the case.

It won't. Hopefully just slight movements north with such a strong arctic high.

My forecasted low was adjusted from 4 to 2 last I checked around 9pm. It's currently -8

Really thought we’d see more of the bigger totals eventually move this way. And I am still nervous about those minimas showing up on all the models. But, snow is snow. Let’s see where it ends up

I’m not. Definitely moving the wrong direction. Need it to trend back south.

WB 6Z GEFS. Still about 50% chance for area wide event; higher SE

6z GEFS

EB 6Z GEFS compared to OZ