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After having finally gotten back to slightly AN since late Aug (that was 1st time since way back in early May), note the recent drop and how cold it was yesterday N of 80N: 2026 having it this cold N of 80N on Sep 28th is per this site technically the coldest this early in the season in 30 years, quite notable! I say “technically” though because it only barely beat 2011, 2004, and 2000. Regardless, the most interesting comparison is to 2012-25, which were all much warmer/AN on Sep 28th: 1958-2002 mean: -11C 26: -13C 25: -7C 24: -9C 23: -8C 22: -7C 21: -8C 20: -5C 19: -5C 18: -5C 17: -8C 16: -7C 15: -8C 14: -7C 13: -9C 12: -9C 2012-25 mean: -7C So, regarding Sep 28th, 2026 is: 1. 4-8C colder than every year since 2012 2. 6C colder than the mean of 2012-2025 Yes, I’m mainly only talking in this post about a point in time and 80N+ is a small area in relation to the N hemisphere (only 1.5%). But it is a very important 1.5% due to Arctic ice. Also, that area is just coming off the coldest late May-early Aug back to 1958 by a good margin, implying the possibility that this overall cooling up there will have legs. I’ll keep following this to see if there’s cooling trend follow-through up there going ahead as this is quite interesting, especially due to its implications on Arctic ice since GW had lead to the greatest warming by a good margin in the Arctic. Is it possible that the massive warming up there is done at least for awhile? Could there be a new cycle that’s just started? @Stormchaserchuck1@bluewave@Wild Weather Monger

Since Thursday is October I'll just put this here Might take a bit to climb on Thursday but we'll definitely see lower 80's within the region. Some of the typical torch spots would have a shot for mid 80's but the warmest llvl temps may get in a bit too late. We probably see a big regional temp spike though between 2-4 PM

storm is still being blocked from moving fast enough away from us because of the strong blocking the last few days so it is weakening and spinning itself out more or less - beginning to wonder if the clouds will still be lingering tomorrow especially in the northern and eastern areas of the region - this satellite image is not encouraging - this will have an effect on high temps

Again, completely different climate on the east coast vs Great Lakes. The least days with measurable snow on record at Detroit was in 1889-90, when just 15 days recorded measurable snow. But thats still 15 days where snowfall was measured. Even Detroit and Boston, which average near identical snowfall, are completely different climates, but I know further south in NYC its more extreme. All that said, I don't see how you could ever expect a snowless winter in NYC without everything going completely wrong, especially in a wet pattern. I mean, easily rain would dominate over snow. But snowless would be an extraordinary feat.

Sums up winter pretty well here!!!

4.97"

remember when we would get cool dry air behind a noreaster

The seasonal forecast models continue to underestimate the mid-latitude 500mb ridging pattern leading to this persistent -PDO.

Looks like maybe a 1/2" of rain at most on tap today. Take whatever we can get. N WI is real dry with D3-4 conditions.

Nauset Beach on Saturday afternoon.

Next 7 days per WPC. About as wet a forecast as you will see over such a large area.

That's a blown forecast IMO. Hope the clouds thin out soon for you, we're finally getting the sun out over LI.

September 29 1876: An abnormally cool day occurs, with a high of 45 in the Twin Cities (normally the high should be 65 this time of year). For Tuesday, September 29, 2026 1927 - An outbreak of tornadoes from Oklahoma to Indiana caused 81 deaths and 25 million dollars damage. A tornado (possibly two tornadoes) cut an eight-mile long path across Saint Louis MO, to Granite City IL, killing 79 persons. The damage path at times was a mile and a quarter in width. The storm followed a similar path to tornadoes which struck in 1871, 1896, and 1959. (The Weather Channel) 1959 - A storm produced 28 inches of snow at Colorado Springs, CO. (David Ludlum) 1983 - Heavy rains began in central and eastern Arizona which culminated in the worst flood in the history of the state. Eight to ten inch rains across the area caused severe flooding in southeastern Arizona which resulted in thirteen deaths and 178 million dollars damage. President Reagan declared eight counties of Arizona to be disaster areas. (The Weather Channel) 1986 - A week of violent weather began in Oklahoma which culminated in one of the worst flooding events in the history of the state. On the first day of the week early morning thunderstorms caused more than a million dollars damage in south Oklahoma City. Thunderstorms produced 4 to 7 inches of rain from Hobart to Ponca City, and another round of thunderstorms that evening produced 7 to 10 inches of rain in north central and northeastern sections of Oklahoma. (Storm Data) 1987 - A slow moving cold front produced rain from the Great Lakes Region to the Central Gulf Coast Region. A late afternoon thunderstorm produced wind gusts to 62 mph at Buffalo NY. Warm weather continued in the western U.S. In Oregon, the afternoon high of 96 degrees at Medford was a record for the date. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - High pressure brought freezing temperatures to parts of Vermont and New York State. Burlington VT dipped to 30 degrees, and Binghamton NY reported a record low of 34 degrees. The high pressure system also brought cold weather to the Central Rocky Mountain Region. Alamosa CO reported a record low of 18 degrees, and Gunnison CO was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of just five degrees above zero. (National Weather Summary) 1989 - Seven cities reported record high temperatures for the date, as readings soared into the 80s and low 90s in the Northern Plateau and Northern Plains Region. Record highs included 91 degrees at Boise ID, and 92 degrees at Sheridan WY. The high of 100 degrees at Tucson AZ marked their 51st record high of the year, and their 92nd day of 100 degree weather. (National Weather Summary) Observances: 29 Tue National Coffee Day 29 Tue National Starbucks Day 29 Tue World Heart Day 29 Tue International Day of Awareness of Food Loss and Waste 29 Tue Veterans of Foreign Wars (VFW) Day 29 Tue National Biscotti Day 29 Tue National Goose Day 29 Tue National Silent Movie Day

still says mostly sunny here on the point and click-I'd call it variably cloudy

NWS point and click has 1.62" for me through Thursday early AM, with a bit more after that. I'd take it if it were true.... still pretty amazing to have such differences in models 24-36 hours out.

41 years ago today: https://x.com/NycStormChaser/status/2104365901864919338/video/1 From what I can remember the power outages across L.I. were extreme and long lasting. Back in the LICO days.

old fashioned and behind the times? lol ! I might me a few years older than you, but I'm fairly certain based on what you've posted on these forums over the years that you are way more "old fashioned" and way more "behind the times" my thermo is one of those alcohol filled jobbers. Mercury is extremely toxic to anything alive and leaving a mercury filled thermometer exposed in the environment is a bad idea I don't have a weather station yet, but would like to get one. If I get one, I will site the sensors where they they belong; I sure won't mount the temp sensor next to the grill on my deck like yours. Torch !

The PDO drop back is unfortunate. It’s now around where it was at this time last year, and there is still some time for the PDO to rise back up to near neutral once the marine heat wave area cools off with the season change. But I think +PDO territory is off the table, and the clock is ticking for us to even get back to neutral.

I think they changed the forecast, as of last night today was forecasted to be mostly sunny. This morning was patchy fog and then partly sunny. Current forecast is now partly sunny.

Flying under the radar is the 1997 autumn. Early freeze, well above normal snows in November and December. I remember an approximately 4” event here 11/14 which had a little staying power. 12/23 was a legit snow bomb and then about 5 days later another one that was rainy here but snowed up north I think.

Mine is only partly sunny for here.

another mostly sunny forecast yet it's mostly cloudy

Please see here (link below). This is a rain track for us as it was inland for the majority of the storm. The noreaster we just had was off shore for the majority of the event. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/dec-11-12-1992