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The summer of 1991 only had a weak El Niño in progress as opposed the the strongest on record this summer.

Ive never been able to figure out why some people are bothered by people who post long range forecasts. All of those forecasts should be taken with an iceberg type grain of salt. I cant recall the last time Ive read or watched one of those types of forecasts Some of the people are laughing all the way to the bank because of people clicking on or watching their long range forecasts. At the end of the day the vast majority of them are going to do what generates the most page/video hits. For the most part they arent concerned about their forecast being right. They are focused on making money by using headlines to drive people to their sites That is how the game is played. At the end of the day there are more important things to be concerned with.

Very hard to buy the GFS when ensembles across the board go the opposite direction.

Supertyphoon Dolphin, almost the same as last night, 130kt as per JTWC

….. and colon? ….. As always …….

Supposed to go to Assateague Sun-Wed. Looking iffy at best after Sunday.

Hot off the press from another source posting the 8/1/26 Cansips run of Nino SST anomalies. It is continuing the CanSIPS run trend of moving the strongest warm SST anomalies further and further east at the ~Nov peak. That’s not surprising because I’ve been suspecting a Modoki bias for it based on the past few years of analyzing it as I’ve posted a number of times here before. The April-June 1st runs had the warmest anomalies near the Dateline/straight Modoki (W based) in the peak month of Nov. Then the July 1st had warmest anomalies in Nov further E near 160W, more of a cross between central based and Modoki. The new Cansips run’s Nov peak shows the warmest anomalies centered near 130W, which would be centered in E Nino 3.4/Nino 3 making it pretty E based. Though this run is not as E based as 1997-8, stay tuned to future runs because the E trend of the strongest anomalies on Cansips from run to run may very well not be done due to this suspected Modoki bias. I can’t post it because the file size is much too large for me to have room in my account. But when it comes out on TT and WxBell, those will be smaller files and thus postable.

I don't disagree there could be something weak, but GFS looks wild.

Keep Friday's sunny. We tan.

thank you!

happy to be skipped here

A real summer day today for a change! No rain and warm but not hot

Low of 67. Monthly stats: Highest temp: 98 Lowest temp: 66 Rainfall: 7.76"

It’s unreal how I’m getting skipped over. Unreal.

Jeezuz, storms just keep popping up north of Brattleboro and sliding right down the valley. Pouring again.

Yeah, the real connection is with global temperatures. A huge trough over the North Pacific is necessarily Winter disaster for the east coast.

Got my gutters all emptied out this morning, let them dry for patching later today Took the wife to urgent care up in Noho, come home to 0.35" in the bucket. Looks like more coming down the valley. maybe I'll try again tomorrow

Any prospects for meaningful rain in Droughtville?

Some assume theres some linear connection with the strength of nino and how warm it will be and simply ignore everything else.

Shocker lol.

*defend the system at all costs* lol I find it's a good topic to discuss here. They are just making people aware of a thunderstorm. It's less about severe intensity these days. We rarely get a severe storm compared to the Midwest though anyway. Not sure why there's near an equal number of warnings issued west to east.

Looks about right

Yes.