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Anyway, skies have cleared and the temperature has dropped 5F the past hour. Currently 37 at 5 o'clock.

This bowling ball looks intriguing.

@ravensrule

HH GFS souther for next Friday

Yup, synoptic storms usually don't produce for me. I'm averaging about 51" over the last 8 seasons (2022-2024 really pulled that average down), and I would guess that >90% of my snow is NWF. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

It's kinda interesting watching the migration of the west pacific warm pool since October. Now biased more to the east. That thing starts becoming more and more of a favorable feature, and less of a detrimental one, the closer you can move it towards the dateline. It doesn't even need to reach the dateline. Just have more separation between it and 120E than usual. With the ongoing wwb, and future ones seemingly slated throughout the month ahead in the Pacific near the dateline. This probably continues to evolve. It's a curious little aspect of how things are playing out. One can't help but wonder if the evolution throughout the month ahead with this feature holds any clues for later in the winter (or not ).

18Z GFS coming in weak and south for the 12th.

Maggie Valleys average is 8 to 10 inches a year. I've surpassed for the last 6 years and already well on the way to surpass the average again this winter. We need a big synoptic storm Region wide to calm the Mountain envy!

Yeah man it does. We get the majority of our seasonal average with upslope snow. Look at @Buckethead annual snowfall. I mean he's high in elevation but he can average like 70 plus and get a foot during a good flow snow event. He'll he probably just about matches Roan mountain. We don't need synoptic along the border bro. We just need great forcing, cold air, and the right wind direction to cash in. I've actually seen where we get a synoptic storm but then we get more flow snow than we do synoptic snow. Flow snow is our bread and butter.

It was a dumb post.

He probably should have mentioned the lower Mid Atlantic lol.

NW flow really saving yall

I had over 30 inches in Haywood county last year and Steve is very close to that.

Pipe-busting cold ahead

Honestly I couldn't give two shits about Boone, Asheville, or any other place. I know and several know our local climate and snowfall. Sure some years have sucked and some have been near or above average. It really comes down to the local climate and local snowfall. It's can be very localized but that's weather. You Honestly live in a shitty place for snow. You need a synoptic storm to get yours and we just haven't had that recently. You do no good in flow snow either. Most of the time you are out looking in.

Look at my chart of Boone. So you're telling me you have seen more snow than Boone during that time period? I think we all get caught up in 2 or 3 inch events when the long term average is still much higher than what we have been getting recently. What is your average in Maggie Valley? I'm guessing closer to 30 inches long term.

Still like 150 miles away lol

Crazy. And as mentioned it destroys vehicles. Could be. I don't fully remember how bad the impacts were, but it's silly and wasteful.

There is a noticeable and significant uptick in juice w/ the 18z short range models w/ regards to Sunday night. The GFS continues w/ its outlier look in NE TN, but the 18z(edit) NAM has the same deformation band. Almost all short range models now have increased backing over Virginia and/or North Carolina. Can it get west of the Apps??? I don't know about that.

18z GFS shifts north with possible Monday snow.

Totally agree with you. It all started with every event after November 2018. I never remember it before that and vividly remember it after that! 100%

Lol this is the truth! The Valley cashes in on synoptic storms but when the freaking low rides the coast like last year it's crap. Us mountain communities are way different from even Buncombe, Hendersonville, and out away from the border.

Snippet from Mount Holly AFD- While technically outside the current forecast period, it should be noted that an arctic outbreak with well below normal temperatures looks to be on the horizon beginning next weekend. A few consecutive days of temperatures on the order of 10-20 degrees below normal are possible.

I hear ya and don’t necessarily disagree. But they aren’t invasive (aggressive) and don’t spread their seed far so a single tree isn’t really hurting the ecosystem much. If I could only plant a couple of trees it would be native ones, but if I had a large enough property and more room for trees than I knew what to do with I’d possibly plant one. They’re fairly useless for wildlife though.