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  2. HRRR only goes out to 7PM Wednesday night but has a little snow. Both the NAM3K and HRRR did well with the last system. Nam3k is a little wintry mix but mostly north of wake
  3. Even a few 1" refreshers would have gone a long way during this period. This winter has clearly been better than the last several, but the two sleet events have tainted the vibe in NJ relative to areas east (NYC/LI) and north (LHV).
  4. Toledo was 30.25 degrees from Jan 1-16, and 11.3 degrees for Jan 17-31. The average temperature was 21.1 degrees which was 6.4 degrees below normal. Fort Wayne was just 4.2 degrees below normal. (That's kind of because Toledo's climatology is oddly too warm...) The large Greenland blocking toward the beginning of the month was correlated with some warmer temperatures here (as discussed.) Then, the really cold air came in when the ridge developed in/near Alaska. (my loop of 500mb anomalies) https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Jan_2026_500mb_loop.html
  5. That was an epic cold spell. I lived in Virginia Beach and we dropped to -4. It was the coldest ever recorded there. Record still holds I believe.
  6. I refuse to get invested til Euro shows something real. Doesn't have to be the right placement just something real which all of the other models had for this past weekend.
  7. Newark had a high of -1 on January 10, 1859.
  8. The major indices on 1/31/26, the day of the majority of the storm, were near ideal overall: - strong +PNA: +1.4 - strong -AO: -2.9 - weak -NAO: -0.5 - moderate -EPO: -1,0 - moderate -WPO: -0.7 - MJO: moderate phase 7 (I had thought it would be phase 8)
  9. Sublimation of snow is the process where snow changes directly from a solid to a gas without first melting into water. This can occur under certain conditions, such as when the air is dry and sunny, allowing snow to disappear without turning into liquid water.
  10. Maybe we get a decent snow after the weekend rug pull
  11. This little warmer reprieve will make the weekend cold sting that much harder. Have to see if models moderate it but could be the coldest weather of the season.
  12. 0z Nam just dropped 6 inches this thing has legs... Lol
  13. Nam is outside its range but really good run. We shall see
  14. 12 in Tamaqua, but 7 at work when I was handing the truck over to my night shift partner.
  15. If we could get a few legit cold days before and after this event, it would make this winter a solid B if not A-.
  16. I could have got some killer shots from the bridges this morning, but old Yardstick is absolutely terrified of bridges and heights beyond a neurotypical's understanding.. I tried my best but fear and the resulting low blood pressure wouldn't let me walk out on the bridges more than a couple feet before my Visovasal sinscope would attempt to knock me out cold.
  17. NAM super amped, pretty legit storm NE NC and SE VA
  18. Gotta love the new weeklies after the couple days of moderation right back into BN but this time with AN precip. Looks like the gulf opens up with some SWFE.
  19. Alright kid if you're gonna share Beethoven then you HAVE to listen to Beethoven too--it is a requirement
  20. I think it's weak sauce. Temperatures are sketchy and there's probably about a 15% chance that low pressure really gets going enough to do anything.
  21. I just looked through the archives including Winter 1994-95 and had a great trip down memory lane. Thanks so much for all the detail and time you put into these. Incredible job.
  22. Just enough to miss us for the clipper and the coastal! Epic
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