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Will finish August with 4.08" unless we get some more on Sunday. Not 2 shabby.

Cmc is still consistent with a south Florida hit.

Lunar eclipse turned out really well Thursday night with peak just after 11pm Central and just after Midnight Friday Eastern Time. High clouds had no impact. Figured as much two days early but work obligations prevented me from starting a thread. I laugh about how neurotic I get about even thin clouds for a TSE; but, so chill about a lunar eclipse. Perhaps I need to do more deep breaths before a solar show. Next I propose that a deep lunar eclipse* is as beautiful or even more so than a total lunar eclipse. Get an extended lunar version of the diamond ring phase. Through binoculars I observed 3 stars with the Moon. It really felt other worldly and it was gorgeous! Telescope didn't add much value other than for photography. I feel like lunar eclipses are a naked eye and binoculars event. Here are my photos. Let's share! *** Lunar eclipses are unique in that deep partial is more than good enough. Solar eclipses are all or nothing. Get into totality or forget about it! ***

Exactly right. I've been noticing the same thing for at least a month now already. I have a hunch that changes in the fall but we'll see what happens.

If you applied this statement to 90% of our seasons since 2011 it’d be accurate.

Former Dolly with a new burst of convection

It was clear enough for about 15 minutes around 11:30 last night. It was pretty cool to see... nothing like the solar in 2024

I made sure I checked a few days in advance if the GFS was calling for rain today. It wasn't. But it's looking like it could rain today with a 30% chance. Like I said before the model is absolutely garbo now

Yeah until that pesky ridge off SoithEastern Japan breaks down it shouldnt happen.Everytime you see long range models trying to show this in the long range is from troughs to fast or just not strong enough to do it to some extent and even when its gets broke down or shunted east it build back in the same parts in days

Grrr. This just ticks me off .

Here's some other notable super el nino seasons just for comparison. Shockingly 1997 and 2015 have had more activity and ACE up until this point than 2026 has so far. Though notably both did have a major hurricane with Erika in 1997 and Joaquin in 2015 in September.

EWR currently in 4th place all time wettest months of August 2026: 10.16 Rank Year August Rainfall 1 2011 18.79" 2 1955 11.84" 3 1971 10.63" 4 1942 8.46" 5 2003 8.21" 6 1990 7.71" 7 2007 7.32" 8 1978 7.30" 9 2021 7.19" 10 1974 7.17" 11 1989 7.03" 12 1959 6.94"

shouldn't be a surprise to anyone-another year without a US hit coming unless there's homebrew at some point

not looking forward to heat/humidity, but nightly storm chances from an active LLJ are very welcome

Goin to be Interesting to say the least. https://fortune.com/2026/05/12/lake-tahoe-data-center-49000-residents-power-source/

When is it going to be our turn?

Assume all will be negative north and east of HFD

Guess the good news is its not July,August otherwise a ridge is setiing in the next couple days and probably should be a fixture the next several days

What's even more interesting about how hostile this season has been is that what does develop barely lasts for more than a day. Arthur, Christobal and Dolly all lasted a single day. What does make it through the grinder can barely even last if it does form.

With not even an average hurricane season to distract us…You could theoretically walk across the ITCZ right now without even encountering a cloud

Well the structure of the pattern is a bit different this go around with the core of the ridging a bit farther north and east so this bodes well for NY into New England. There will be lots of details to iron out too. For example, there will be a weak stationary front within the region which will be the boundary between unseasonably warm/humid weather versus cooler and less humid. This will be critical because this will establish the instability gradient. Secondly, the real big question is EML advection and can we maintain an EML into the region.

Oh i could never be a politician. I’m too honest for that

1.30" total

No reason to break the summer pattern. Those two zones locked in , in May and has been relentless with each front