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The interaction of the two storms and the ULL could lead to some nasty flooding. I don't like that models are starting to pick up on a stalled moisture feed

I'll go out on a limb and say we won't be stuck in +EPO patterns for the majority of winter 2025-2026.

At least there’s a nice breeze to go along with the low DPs.

No talk about this storm ?

If we’re going to have nice “warm” days it might as well be October(especially early October). A cold and wet October isn’t exciting to me anyway unless you’re just looking for the first flakes of snow. November on the other hand is when we need a more active pattern for severe and or winter weather.

Obviously too early to say if we'll be affected by the tropics in any way, but at least it's the first thing to track since last winter. 73F/DP 72F...disgusting!

Pourin like the old man is snorin here right now

0.87” in Syosset & 0.52” in Muttontown.

Nice surprise. We have picked up 1.17" rain since midnight.

don't know what a "PRE event" is but it sounds excellent

0.69"

You love to see it

0.46. Those 3” totals are not happening

Sep departures (thru 24) 7 EWR: +0.5 NYC: -0.4 JFK: -0.7 LGA: -1.2

what should become Imelda looks to stay along the EC (where is the key) next week and dump some serious rains

Drive from E CT to Providence was pretty bad.

0.34". Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

With a potential for a hit between Savannah and Wilmington NC it might be time for a road trip up to East Hartland, maybe it’ll be like Erin which gave us the most amazing un-South Carolina like summer weather after it passed OTS with temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s with low humidity for weeks.

Picked up 1.50” since yesterday afternoon.

With regard to the EPO, I suspect the current issue is less one about whether it can go positive or negative, but the issue of decreasing variability. In other words, there is greater stickiness for either a positive regime or negative regime during winter and that tendency has increased in recent years. More broadly, this tendency would be consistent with the growing evidence that "stuck patterns" are growing more frequent. And if one looks more closely, the stuck patterns seem to be starting to break in favor of EPO+ values. Here are ratios of the percentage of postive and negative days in January-February vs. percentage of positive and negative days in December. These are currently modest trends.

Effing gyre ftl.

A little better than last year where we went 2 months without anything at all. But yeah, can't buy a good soaking

Model trends can shift fast, especially on Signal Mountain. Afternoon storms are tricky, so I’d watch hi-res radar updates closely around midday.