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Maybe that inverted trough wont be as bad in future runs

What map are you referring to?

The Euro has done what we wanted. Still tracking

Players still on the table….check euro bias of holding back the energy some…check high pressure in a good spot…check blocking established…..check moisture feed….check 3 days to go before we have a clue on specific types and/or guesstimate amounts….check Winter chaos incoming

Can someone post maps???

Yeah the euro gets N stream involved but not as deeply as some of the other solutions. It’s not quite as slow. It’s still enough for a solid SNE hit but it left some on the table. But it’s more than enough to work with at D5-6

That'll work. Only 4-5 days to go.

Yup, not a clean phase. It trended towards the GFS with regards to handling the SW energy.

Canadian ens a hair drier on the northern side but not really south. Mean is still 9” on the M/D line. DC actually increased to 13”.

Still looking good with the Euro.

Today's models are trending towards a slower ejection of the Baja trough. This is looking like a Friday through Sunday storm for much of the state. Maybe not as intense of precip rates but looking at potentially 48 hours of frozen precip.

The Euro is about a foot in the city more south. Onto happy hr

I can't find anything operational for the Clankers (AIGFS, etc...), but here's RMSE (x) versus isobaric surface (y) for some of the major diagnostic modeling systems at forecast hour 120 (day 5), for the northern hemisphere, and for the past 31 days: The smaller the RMSE value, the better the results... So, if I had to rank them as an aggregate of all isobaric surfaces, it'd go; 1) ECMWF 2) UKMET~=CMC [pretty close] 3) GFS 4) JMA 5) FNMOC 6) CFS. Let's remember weenies, this is for one forecast hour, for the northern hemisphere, and for the past 31 days. Accuracy changes when you adjust any of those parameters. That said, dabble with that if you'd like > https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/prod/atmos/grid2obs/hgt/ - it takes a while for the website to load on Chrome, unfortunately.

The Euro is still a monster. And maybe the worst winter storm ever here, especially if you include the near 3/4th inch of ice it gives the Southern Valley.

We’ll take it. Different than 00z, more like Canadian and Ukie.

Yeah it was a sloppy phase and we still get a foot.

Thanks for everyone chiming in. I think I’ll just go with the 12z GFS clown map instead.

Any other system I'd cash out now, but given what we have seen the past few days on the models I don't want the ice cutting into our precious totals!

You can tell people are wound up. The GFS came south so some worried about suppression. Now the Euro is warmer so we’re worried about missing to the North (with more mixing). Gonna be a wild few days. What’s the timing looking like now anyway? Still Saturday-Sunday?

Euro looks fantastic with the front end thump which is the "easy" part for us typically which is great to see. I don't get expect the details of the phasing/potential coastal influence to be figured out til about Friday morning.

Not a major system but wouldn’t matter given how cold the airmass is. We could see a foot even with .75 QPF.

-2 this morning, but felt almost mild with the calm winds compared to yesterday's 35mph winds.