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Model waffles will continue for the next couple of days before honing in on a scenario.

I wonder why the outerbanks got so little? Warm air or dry slot? I thought the 80 storm was SUPER cold?? I was only 4 and lived in Wilson...I slightly remember it.

Went out and there are tree limbs down all over. You can walk on the top of the snow without going through. Governor of Maryland put out for people to stay off the roads.

Csnavywx, Is this a Triple Phaser? To my untrained eyes it sure looks like one. If it walks like a duck, talks like a duck...

The 12z GEPS is further back w/ the surface high pressure over TX than it was at 12z. The 12z Euro is further east w/ the surface high pressure over TX than it was at 6z. That seems to be a pretty significant difference. The amount of hp over the top in New England is also important. The 12z Euro had more there than compared to 6z...and that may well have shunted the moisture to the coast.

Amen. Using a spade here to jackhammer from the top, then get underneath to lever up the ice blocks, some of which are 3" thick. There's powder underneath, so the regular snow shovel does come in handy for that. A broom takes care of the remaining pixie dust layer to ensure that anyone walking on it doesn't compress leftovers to ice. Amazingly, the asphalt and concrete surfaces are totally dry underneath all of this stuff! Definitely a multiday project for us geezers, lol.

All I look at is the ensembles and the latest European indeed shows accumulating snows back through our area....that is all that matters not any one operational run. Suspect another busy tracking week ahead! Stay warm my friends!!

12.1” here in Williamsburg Brooklyn 23.7” year to date

Major west lean on the EPS

Sure, no ill will, but jealousy for sure as this will be God knows how many times now since 2000. My gut here is congrats to Tidewater once again...

May have been two calendar days like an overnight storm? Toronto has never had a 20" calendar day storm (I have not had time to check the latest on yesterday) but it has three or four overnight 20 to 23 inch storm totals. I recall doing a study on all 8.0" two day totals for Toronto (hundreds of data points) and about half of them had a significant amount on a second consecutive day. So only about half of all snowstorms there manage to occur all within one calendar day, or mostly if we eliminate the 0.1 and 0.2 add-ons. A few storms require three calendar days to play out to their totals but I never did a census on those because in a fast-moving pattern there can easily be two separate events contained in three days of snowfall data.

12.1” storm 23.7” season

Yes. 30 inches and 4 foot drifts near Havelock, NC. Wild scene.

I like where we're at. If we see things continue to trend worse over the next 2-3 days, well then yeah this might just go OTS. Let's just hold it here and I'm fairly confident we can back this NW with favorable ticks with the ridge out west and the TPV split. There is absolutely no reason to be cliff jumping, I mean a lot of y'all just got double digit snows yesterday. We just saw very favorable shifts on the GFS suite, Canadian suite, and ICON. Lean on the ensembles for the next 2-3 days.

Interesting GYX discussion. Calling for 3 to 6 through this evening with a period of heavy snow later today in this evening in my zones. Apparently, even though the radar looks like it’s ending there is more energy still to come through and act on the leftover lift and moisture.

I know this is 06z and I haven't seen the 12z EURO yet... but holy cow.

Again, at least it is something to track. And, if our friends in the Tidewater get buried, I hold no ill will as this is the Richmond Metro and Hampton Roads subforum, not just RVA. But, if this comes to fruition like it is and they get buried, including Newport News, ldub cannot complain for two years about lack of snow.

Aside from the fact that a 0.9" difference is literally just run to run noise, you're misusing the models. Euro and GFS aren't built to nowcast day-of events.

Why u say that? It has multiple model support and ensembles support

If you do not mind, was this west of the 6z eps.

Well that settles it

Pretty similar at 500mb to this gem

If a storm thread gets started before Thursday, I swear I will hunt you down!! Both landlord and my son were here. We're dug out. I have a flat tire AND a broken windshield washer thingy --on the driver's side of course! Son has the piece needed but he's in the tractor and the part is in his truck. I might be stuck home another day! Temps are going to dip this evening. It's frigid out there. @ 25F but sun feels nice.