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A beautiful evening. 58 and feels warmer.

I thought maybe you guys in Chicago would be talking about this storm an hour and a half ago

53F at 6pm This weekend looks great...

Despite being cool.. deep spring on the vegetation moves along. Oak leaves continue slowly opening. About 2 weeks early

i will never plant a tomato before mother's day

Hello, winter in Mammoth Lakes: https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/the-village

Thanks so much for replying to me with these recs! Will check em out. Apologies for the late response.

Was following along on some live feeds overnight with some of the orchards usings helicopters and burn barrels. What year was it recently where everyone lost a bunch of apples? 2016 maybe?

Bluewave has posted graphs of a linear warming trend in Nino 4, 1950-present. It's much more of a straight line than other ENSO regions.

Of course we'll get it in May and June.

What’s the deal with all this extreme warmth in Nino 4 during recent El Niños? When you think of the classic strong/super Nino you always think of Nino 4 not being too warm or maybe even below normal. Nino 4 is up to +1 already according to Cyclonicwx.

These winds are a joke

I think models are overdoing it -- you want the SOI to be lower, but it never got strong in 2023 so it may still be a lagging indicator, which it has been for the last 3 years.

Indeed, the CFSv2 gets Nino 3 to just above +3.0 in Nov and Dec for non-relative anomalies:

Today’s EWs continue to look good overall (certainly much better than how it’s been in the SE for most weeks in recent months) during the two weeks 4/27-5/10: 4/27-5/3: 5/4-10:

With 5 of the next 8 days in outlooks, I was hoping chaser drama on X would cease, and people would concentrate on the forecast. Silly me! What was I thinking? We shall refer to Monday as Monday or whatever day outlook it is (as time passes) and omit the date which shall not be named. Same for that year. Possible another day crops up next week too. That still doesn't make it that year. It makes it spring in the South!

Op Euro still not enthused

Ever notice this? There are fewer tornadoes in Missouri. Each of the available tornado-climatology maps on the SPC violent tornadoes research page show that this is generally true. Any time the SPC puts a 10% or greater tornado outlook for Missouri, I'm thinking, "there probably won't be a big tornado in Missouri."

Ha…that was the old WCI formula.

@ineedsnow^

line trying to back build just in time for some garden variety

Congrats

It would suck because its early May, but for those worried about dry grounds and "drought" conditions, one way to fix that is a good ole coastal. A good widespread 1-3" of rain for a day wouldn't be a terrible thing