MJO812 Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 every model shows temps near 40 Upton mentioned about this. Wet bulbing will bring the temps down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Ukie looks decent http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=048&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=060 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Upton mentioned about this. Wet bulbing will bring the temps down.good luck getting drier air to advect in with an initial fetch right off the water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 GEFS and Navgem improved. Need the low south of the area for any chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 This is a rain to snow event for the coast it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Stop taking tracks this far out so seriously. GGEM and UKMET are well south of the GFS and NAM. Ukmet: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted April 7, 2016 Author Share Posted April 7, 2016 I think it certainly starts as rain, and the only accum snow would come from the wraparound (pseudo-ccb) on the colder backside of the exiting low. Any 'overrunning' will be rain or non-accum snow. I think 1-3" is possible for NE NJ/NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Stop taking tracks this far out so seriously. GGEM and UKMET are well south of the GFS and NAM. Ukmet: Stop taking those tracks so serious... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 If the real solution is 35 miles south of what the 12z GFS is showing NYC jackpots! Someone could easily get 6 inches out of this! Sent from MAM That is basically a topomap and the mountains aren't coming 30 miles southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Stop taking those tracks so serious... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Near -40C 500 mb temps are a new record low for this time of year getting down to DCA. So hopefully we get the right track so the cold doesn't go to waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 I can see a nice grass cold surfaces type storm right to the coast if we get the right rates. Accumulating on paved surfaces would take rates 1"+ at this time of year with marginal temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 if it's going to snow April 9th is the right day for it...It has the most times an inch or more has fallen...1996 had a half inch on the 9th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Isn't this a northern stream system? Just asking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted April 7, 2016 Author Share Posted April 7, 2016 12z Euro goes south. How far south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Not that much..but enough for very little precip here on this run. Its in a good spot but no precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Still time for this to change but I'll take my chances with the GFS. Euro in my opinion is overrated ever since sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 All models show a narrow band where appreciable snow falls. So you want the trough to dig, but not too far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Euro is not really south. It's just open at H5 and in return the surface is weak and shredded and gives no snow to anyone on this forum or anyone else for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 312 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016 NYZ072-081000- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)- 312 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016 NYZ073-081000- BRONX- 312 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016 NJZ106-081000- EASTERN ESSEX- 312 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016 SATURDAY...CLOUDY. RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. SATURDAY NIGHT CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY IN THE EVENING. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Again, be wary with the Euro. This new version has had major progressive/suppression issues. It even is totally flat with the front next Tuesday over the MA and SE vs the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Gfs looks simuliar to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Surface is ugly east of the Hudson. The Poconos and Sussex county stay below 32f. Philly looks better at the surface than NYC this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 That is basically a topomap and the mountains aren't coming 30 miles southeast.thats not my point, GFS concentrated the heavier rates there. If the precip was a bit south we would have NYC jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 So what's the overall summary? At the moment,looks like snow coming or nothing? Someone I know bashing Nws so I wanna tell her what 'is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 So what's the overall summary? At the moment,looks like snow coming or nothing? Someone I know bashing Nws so I wanna tell her what 'is coming IMHO for NYC would be rain ending as some snow (light accumulations) mainly grassy areas.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 IMHO for NYC would be rain ending as some snow (light accumulations) mainly grassy areas.... Yeah IDK. I say snows,mainly gassy surfaces if it pans out,especially on long island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 3.9 inches for the city. Sent from MAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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