538 replies to this topic

[Snowstorms]

snowstormcanuck, on 22 February 2012 - 05:48 PM, said:

Snowstorms, I heard back from climate services today re: Feb 11

Thats great. Atleast they realize the error and can fix it quickly. Even then, I still think 2.2cm is quite low. I think it should be corrected to 2" atleast as every other station got 2" atleast.

If thats the case, then the month will be closing in on 6" thus far. Overall the total maybe around 16" then. Then only 4" more to the record low lol.

Thanks for telling.

[Alek]

holy crap 18z GFS for Indiana

[gosaints]

Alek, on 22 February 2012 - 07:59 PM, said:

holy crap 18z GFS for Indiana

I am at the point that I just want to see a bomb this winter. I dont care where (of course my yard would be the best) I just want to watch one come to fruition on the models, radar, and satellite.

[Alek]

gosaints, on 22 February 2012 - 08:04 PM, said:

I am at the point that I just want to see a bomb this winter. I dont care where (of course my yard would be the best) I just want to watch one come to fruition on the models, radar, and satellite.

agree, i really like this period for a beast

[gosaints]

Alek, on 22 February 2012 - 08:05 PM, said:

agree, i really like this period for a beast

Also would be interesting to see how the models handle a real storm.

[Hoosier]

Alek, on 22 February 2012 - 07:59 PM, said:

holy crap 18z GFS for Indiana

I wasn't gonna look but you're forcing me.

[Chicago Storm]

getting pea size graupel here.

[Geos]

Some showers have been in the area in the last hour. I see Racine, WI is reporting -SN.

[BowMeHunter]

stars out here.

[Thundersnow12]

Alek, on 22 February 2012 - 08:05 PM, said:

agree, i really like this period for a beast

As does Skilling. Not so much a monster but really liking this pattern we are in/heading into.

[Angrysummons]

Thundersnow12, on 22 February 2012 - 08:34 PM, said:

As does Skilling. Not so much a monster but really liking this pattern we are in/heading into.

Yeah, just like mid-January and into February.

[andyhb]

NWS out of Memphis already mentioning next week's potential system:

Quote

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE FORECAST
MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAD A HARD TIME FINDING ANY GUIDANCE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES I AGREED WITH NEXT WEEK...SO STARTED WITH THE
GFS...BUT IN GENERAL RAISED READINGS 4-12 DEGREES. IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES LOOK A BIT COOL...BUT NOT ON THE MAGNITUDE
OF TDS. STARTING TO SEE THE MAKINGS OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
MIDWEEK. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH
WOULD ALLOW MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DAYS TO REBOUND. A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS
MISSOURI...PLACING THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH IN THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL A TON OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND LOTS OF TIME FOR THINGS TO
CHANGE...BUT CERTAINLY WORTH KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON.

Some kind of active pattern on the 00z GFS...

00z CMC/GGEM going nuts with the SLP next week:
 glb00_168.gif   59.96K   0 downloads

[Thundersnow12]

Geez the 0z GFS has two major snowstorms between D6-10, with the second being in March.

[Chicago Storm]

Wednesday, February 22nd:
Hi: 44F
Lo: 31F
Overall Sky Conditions: Mostly Cloudy
Max Wind Gust: 11MPH
Rainfall: 0.03"
Snowfall: 0.1"

[Stebo48858]

Thundersnow12, on 23 February 2012 - 02:22 AM, said:

Geez the 0z GFS has two major snowstorms between D6-10, with the second being in March.

00z Euro does too, time to make up ground?

[andyhb]

Here's the aforementioned CMC at 156 and 168 hrs:
 wf156.gif   127.91K   0 downloads
 wf168.gif   126.02K   0 downloads

Unsurprisingly, Day 4-8 mentions the potential:

Quote

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 AM CST THU FEB 23 2012

VALID 261200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...

THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONVERGED TO SIMILAR SOLUTIONS
THROUGH DAY 6 REGARDING SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION. HOWEVER..THEY
HAVE NOT DEMONSTRATED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...AND ENSEMBLE
SPREADS INCREASE CONSIDERABLY BEYOND DAY 5. CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER
PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND MODERATELY AMPLIFIED AS A SERIES
OF WAVES TRAVERSE THE COUNTRY.

SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LOW INTO DAY 4 WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN. GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT MAY
INCREASE FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY BY TUESDAY
/DAY 6/ THEN OH VALLEY AND SERN STATES WEDNESDAY AS RICHER GULF
MOISTURE ADVECTS NWD AHEAD OF A SRN STREAM WAVE. IF MODELS BEGIN TO
SHOW BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY A RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE
INTRODUCED IN LATER UPDATES.

[roardog]

It snowed enough to completely cover the ground last night. I would guess probably an inch by looking outside. Interesting.

[weatherpsycho]

roardog, on 23 February 2012 - 05:20 AM, said:

It snowed enough to completely cover the ground last night. I would guess probably an inch by looking outside. Interesting.

I just looked out side here and it is a bit white here too in northern Oakland. Where did that come from? I wasn't expecting anything last night.

[michsnowfreak]

Just a trace here, so for once we didnt have to add any nickels to the season total which will melt by afternoon. It goes without saying that all eyes are on tonight. Biggest storm of the year so far 4.9" imby, 2nd biggest a tie twice at 2.5".

[DAFF]

Winter has begun !!! Might be only 1-2 weeks long but action packed. GFS got me drewling.

[gosaints]

DAFF, on 23 February 2012 - 07:42 AM, said:

Winter has begun !!! Might be only 1-2 weeks long but action packed. GFS got me drewling.

Check out the differences between the 0Z and 6Z GFS in the medium and long range. You will LOL.

[daddylonglegs]

Saints=

Why does everything that look good for around here end up being a complete failure? We may go through this "active" period with nothing.

Did u see the 6z? Almost no precip now for LSE... Just amazing how crappy the GFS (and others at times) have handled all of this.

[gosaints]

daddylonglegs, on 23 February 2012 - 08:23 AM, said:

Saints=

Why does everything that look good for around here end up being a complete failure? We may go through this "active" period with nothing.

Did u see the 6z? Almost no precip now for LSE... Just amazing how crappy the GFS (and others at times) have handled all of this.

I would throw the 6z out, but it does follow the seasonal trend that we have seen so many times. It takes next weeks system south and week. The Euro really dumps on us though.

[daddylonglegs]

I didn't see the Euro, but you have to think the trend will continue until it doesn't... The south trend has been in place all winter it seems.

I know one thing. You can't buy ANY model run anymore then about 48hrs right now...

[daddylonglegs]

More proof that long range forecasting is about as accurate as flipping a coin or pulling something out of your cornhole...

[gosaints]

Wow at those maps. I think Rochester is gonna break their record for their warmest ever. Where is La Crosse gonna finish?

[daddylonglegs]

Looks like its #4 here... I would assume Rochester is probably even higher up.

[gosaints]

They were #2 last I saw and only .4 degrees F behind #1.

[hm8]

The January map is the stuff of nightmares...

[gosaints]

hm8, on 23 February 2012 - 10:49 AM, said:

The January map is the stuff of nightmares...

All 3 maps are pretty much carbon copies of eachother for the whole state of minnesota.

[gosaints]

GFS looking less and less impressive by the run for the system early next week.

[Stebo48858]

gosaints, on 23 February 2012 - 11:25 AM, said:

GFS looking less and less impressive by the run for the system early next week.

Yeah it is getting kicked out of the way by the bigger system after it around Tuesday/Wednesday. Oh and the Gulf will be open for business for that system.

[weatherpsycho]

Stebo48858, on 23 February 2012 - 12:33 PM, said:

Yeah it is getting kicked out of the way by the bigger system after it around Tuesday/Wednesday. Oh and the Gulf will be open for business for that system.

That Tues/Wed system looks interesting. I know the models will flop around a lot but it sure could be a big MW/GL storm with the Gulf open.

[gosaints]

weatherpsycho, on 23 February 2012 - 12:38 PM, said:

That Tues/Wed system looks interesting. I know the models will flop around a lot but it sure could be a big MW/GL storm with the Gulf open.

GGEM is amped, moist, and wet.

[Hoosier]

weatherpsycho, on 23 February 2012 - 12:38 PM, said:

That Tues/Wed system looks interesting.  I know the models will flop around a lot but it sure could be a big MW/GL storm with the Gulf open.

That first wave is looking like a table setter for the next one. Moisture return looks to slowly get underway into the deep South and that pool of moisture would be readily available for the next event, at least as currently modeled.