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iCyclone Chase: IRENE


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#1
HurricaneJosh

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Well... Irene is now a hurricane, and I think I'm going to go after this one. A few reasons:

* There's clearly a spectacular upper-air pattern, given that it strengthened while the center traversed mountainous Puerto Rico. This bodes well for future intensification.
* It seems to be really gaining some latitude this morning-- enough so it might not get totally thrashed by Shredderola.
* The models are pretty-much unanimous that this will hit the SE USA.
* The NHC admits in the latest Discussion that the 95 kt landfall intensity could be conservative.

On the minus side, this is one of those irritating Floyd-esque tracks, where the motion will roughly parallel the FL-to-NC curve-- meaning landfall can kind of happen anywhere, and there could be a ton of driving involved.

On the plus side, the idea of getting there a couple of days in advance and having some time to really navigate into position properly-- without it being a race against the clock-- is really appealing-- especially after my last couple of Mexican chases, which were really harsh rush jobs.

Going to bed now-- will make a firm decision in the morning.

Attached File  at201109_5day (1).gif   35.25KB   0 downloads

#2
eyewall

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Well... Irene is now a hurricane, and I think I'm going to go after this one. A few reasons:

* There's clearly a spectacular upper-air pattern, given that it strengthened while the center traversed mountainous Puerto Rico. This bodes well for future intensification.
* It seems to be really gaining some latitude this morning-- enough so it won't get totally thrashed by Shredderola.
* The models are pretty-much unanimous that this will hit the SE USA.
* The NHC admits in the latest Discussion that the 95 kt landfall intensity could be conservative.

On the minus side, this is one of those irritating Floy-esque tracks, where the motion roughly parallels the FL-to-NC curve, and landfall can kind of happen anywhere.

On the plus side, the idea of getting there a couple of days in advance and having some time to really navigate into position preoperly is really appealing-- especially after my last couple of Mexican chases, which were harsh rush jobs.

Going to bed now-- will make a firm decision in the morning.

Attached File  at201109_5day (1).gif   35.25KB   0 downloads


Perhaps I will see you out there. This one may very well come in range for me to chase as well :)

#3
HurricaneJosh

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Perhaps I will see you out there. This one may very well come in range for me to chase as well :)

I'll be sure to wave to ya. :)

#4
HurricaneJosh

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Oh, in terms of landfall points, I'm getting a SC vibe right now-- the NHC track will probably shift right-- but I also think this chase is going to involve lots of driving and lots of gas. I think it might be very hard to pinpoint the landfall location until late in the game.

That's cool-- no biggie. Like I said, anything will be easier than the last two Mexican chases I did. :D

#5
VAwxman

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Agree that starting in SC looks good for now. That way you're at a good midpoint in case you need to dash toward GA or up to NC.

#6
Ginxy

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Oh, in terms of landfall points, I'm getting a SC vibe right now-- the NHC track will probably shift right-- but I also think this chase is going to involve lots of driving and lots of gas. I think it might be very hard to pinpoint the landfall location until late in the game.

That's cool-- no biggie. Like I said, anything will be easier than the last two Mexican chases I did. :D

Awesome Josh, look forward to your posts, live from HSE.

#7
A-L-E-X

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Oh, in terms of landfall points, I'm getting a SC vibe right now-- the NHC track will probably shift right-- but I also think this chase is going to involve lots of driving and lots of gas. I think it might be very hard to pinpoint the landfall location until late in the game.

That's cool-- no biggie. Like I said, anything will be easier than the last two Mexican chases I did. :D


A Hugo track :P


There is some uniquely exotic and adventurous about chasing a "foreign" hurricane though-- you have to admit that, Josh. ;)

#8
HurricaneJosh

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Agree that starting in SC looks good for now. That way you're at a good midpoint in case you need to dash toward GA or up to NC.

Yup-- exactly.

Awesome Josh, look forward to your posts, live from HSE.

Thanks, Steve!

P.S. We finally broke the no-'cane streak with No. 9. I was starting to worry. :D

A Hugo track :P

There is some uniquely exotic and adventurous about chasing a "foreign" hurricane though-- you have to admit that, Josh. ;)

Oh there is, and I'm darn proud of those expeditions-- they're great war stories-- but I also think they took days off of my life. I don't want that kinda stress every time I chase a cyclone :D

#9
A-L-E-X

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Yup-- exactly.


Thanks, Steve!

P.S. We finally broke the no-'cane streak with No. 9. I was starting to worry. :D


Oh there is, and I'm darn proud of those expeditions-- they're great war stories-- but I also think they took days off of my life. I don't want that kinda stress every time I chase a cyclone :D


This actually brings back some memories for me; Hugo was the first major CONUS landfall that I remember :D Were you still up here back in 89? I still remember how gusty it was up here as it tracked well to our west.

#10
Srain

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That parkin' spot is calling your name, isn't it...:P

#11
phlwx

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like I said in the other threads...as long as Hispaniola doesn't do the ol' suck-n-screw I think you have a Cat 2 (maybe a 3) at landfall in South Carolina. I said Hilton Head initially as my landfall guess but I reserve the right to adjust up the coast as needed. :lol:

#12
Ellinwood

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If my work schedule works out I'll be making the trek down south (hopefully SC) Friday (or Thursday if I can get the whole day off). I imagine Jason will be down there for sure. My biggest concern right now is timing the landfall, though there should be a good chunk of time for daytime footage as the stronger winds roll through.

Good luck, and I hope to see you down there!

#13
Herb@MAWS

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Dumb luck -- Am down in OBX until next Sunday (8/28).

Come'on Irene !

Wave heights were unusually low 8/21.

#14
free_man

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What type of boat are you going to use to chase the center? :whistle: In all seriousness, this looks like a NC or OBX hit more than a SC/GA lf, if a hit at all.

#15
Plowable

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Just hit me up Josh if it's a northern SC hit from say Georgetown on North to state line. At the very least can help you navigate . PM me i'll send you my contact info , if you need anything while your out here I'll do my best to accomodate ....







Yup-- exactly.


Thanks, Steve!

P.S. We finally broke the no-'cane streak with No. 9. I was starting to worry. :D


Oh there is, and I'm darn proud of those expeditions-- they're great war stories-- but I also think they took days off of my life. I don't want that kinda stress every time I chase a cyclone :D



#16
ArtRosen

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I don't recall a hurricane ever making landfall off of the Georgia coast. Does anyone have statistics of this?

#17
PDIII

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Josh-


I will be traveling this weekend too to see this thing. If the 6Z guidance verifies and that is a BIG if, what day do you think they will be closing roads along the coastal areas? from NJ down through SC? As of now, my plans are to drive in to Ocean City, MD Thursday night. I am quite certain that this is early enough but you never know and I want to make sure I dont miss this.


Let me know what you think. Thanks for your help in advance.

#18
stormitecture

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I don't recall a hurricane ever making landfall off of the Georgia coast. Does anyone have statistics of this?

off the top of my head...I want to say they have NEVER had a hurricane make landfall...but it also might have been more like "not within 50 years" or something. Nonetheless, it is rare...very, very rare.

#19
Jeff B

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It's appears I'm chasing Irene whether I like it or not. Currently scheduled for a 4-day Disney cruise with my wife and daughter Thursday-Sunday out of Canaveral through the Bahamas. Flying to Orlando Wed AM.

Ahhh, no. No cruise insurance! Argh!!

#20
shaggy

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If some of these model runs from 06z and the euro come true I won't have to chase anywhere as it would track across eastern parts of NC.

#21
The Dude

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off the top of my head...I want to say they have NEVER had a hurricane make landfall...but it also might have been more like "not within 50 years" or something. Nonetheless, it is rare...very, very rare.


I believe that last landfall of a hurricane in Georgia was David in 1979. The last major was back in 1898.

#22
tornadotony

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I believe that last landfall of a hurricane in Georgia was David in 1979. The last major was back in 1898.


You, sir, win the TornadoTony/HurricaneJosh Semi-Useless Weather Trivia award for today.

#23
stormitecture

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I believe that last landfall of a hurricane in Georgia was David in 1979. The last major was back in 1898.

That was it...last MAJOR hurricane.

#24
Scott747

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Charleston - Morehead City

I'm pulling for Surfside Beach the South Carolina version and I would like some type of souvenir please.


:scooter:

#25
AppsRunner

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The only thing that beats a hurricane chase... a Major Hurricane chase!
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#26
stormitecture

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I'll add: From Isabel in 2003...you can FORGET trying to get to the barrier islands along the cost near Morehead City. Atlantic Beach, Emerald Isle, etc...have very, very strict police officers and will not allow access. To quote one of the officers, "I don't care....I'll put you in jail cause I feel like it and you can tell it to the judge AFTER the storm". It's on video (edited out of this clip: )

#27
Uncle Bobby

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Just so's ya know, Josh, I've already started archiving. Not every single image attm, but the "2011Irene" folder's already being occupied with subfolders, images, etc. etc.

Gonna be a long week. Or short, depending on one's POV.

#28
Queencitywx

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Promise you'll come to Columbia if you decide on Charleston? :)

#29
Ed Lizard

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I've never been there, but as far as having well developed civilization with nice homes and plam trees to bend, I think Charleston would produce excellent video.

Hoping for a daytime landfall near the NHC track...


Posted Image

#30
downeastnc

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I'll add: From Isabel in 2003...you can FORGET trying to get to the barrier islands along the cost near Morehead City. Atlantic Beach, Emerald Isle, etc...have very, very strict police officers and will not allow access. To quote one of the officers, "I don't care....I'll put you in jail cause I feel like it and you can tell it to the judge AFTER the storm". It's on video (edited out of this clip: http://www.youtube.c...h?v=j9KWiTy9RaQ)



This is the truth unless you know someone that owns property and can get in a few days beforehand getting on the south facing islands is impossible. Which sucks cause if this thing comes in ILM to MHX those islands are gonna get hammered....

#31
#NoPoles

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i think you should chase if she hits MA...and i will bring you food and logistical support!



#32
Ed Lizard

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OK, the 12Z GFS SNE thing, sure it'll probably be in ET transition by then, a sloppy storm. Might still have something like an eye. The rain will all be on the front end and mainly West of the track. But if the SNE subforum has another house party in Chatham, Josh would be the guest of honor, and it could be like an SNE/SoCal Tropiclique meetup.

#33
wxmeddler

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I'll be chasing on the MD/DE/NJ Coast if that the GFS is right and it emerges off of NC and heads north..

#34
Cory

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The biggest safety threat at landfall will be crashing your car into all the chasers.

#35
Ellinwood

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The biggest safety threat at landfall will be crashing your car into all the chasers.

This.

Even Reed Timmer and the TVN crew are going to be going after this thing... massive chaser convergence on 1000 ft. of beachfront.



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