nw baltimore wx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I didn't know which thread to ask, but is tonight's rain to snow an after thought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I didn't know which thread to ask, but is tonight's rain to snow an after thought? It certainly hasn't gotten much air time on here... 0.1"+ QPF in a few areas could lead to more ice/sleet or an inch of snow. Something to watch for sure until the Thu/Fri system ramps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It certainly hasn't gotten much air time on here... 0.1"+ QPF in a few areas could lead to more ice/sleet or an inch of snow. Something to watch for sure until the Thu/Fri system ramps up. gfs looks warm in the bl on the maps.. havent looked at soundings. seems like it might end as some sloppy flakes but not amount to much or anything around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 ice is so lame Can make for good pictures though. If I had any skill and a decent camera, this could have been a nice shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 BL temps don't look good for tonight. Looks like temps get to 3-4C around 950mb. 850mb temps are <0C and surface temps are 0-1C, but that warm nose just above the surface would probably melt everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 gfs looks warm in the bl on the maps.. havent looked at soundings. seems like it might end as some sloppy flakes but not amount to much or anything around here? It shouldn't really stick around here from the BL temps, but some higher elevations or a few cooler spots could get some accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 gfs looks warm in the bl on the maps.. havent looked at soundings. seems like it might end as some sloppy flakes but not amount to much or anything around here? Obviously, I'm not as deft at reading the details as others, but it looks to me like cold air should be filtering in with the rain. Combined with some decent precip rates, couldn't the marginal column cool pretty quickly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Obviously, I'm not as deft at reading the details as others, but it looks to me like cold air should be filtering in with the rain. Combined with some decent precip rates, couldn't the marginal column cool pretty quickly? it could i suppose tho it looks like 850 doesnt cool to 0C or below till it's almost over. nam at 24: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_024m.gif nam sim at 24: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_ref_024m.gif gfs surface temps at 24: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_024m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This storm has turned into quite the mess. The Red Line of Metro is suspended between Twinbrook and Shady Grove, and has been for hours, due to wires hanging over the tracks. Lots of people in the outer burbs can't make it into the city.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Just got to my cabin. Over performed here and no sign of mixing. Certainly no freezing rain. perfect blue sunny sky and 28 now with 2.5" on the ground. I am counting this one as 2.75 considering the snow stopped nearly 12 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Just got to my cabin. Over performed here and no sign of mixing. Certainly no freezing rain. perfect blue sunny sky and 28 now with 2.5" on the ground. I am counting this one as 2.75 considering the snow stopped nearly 12 hours ago. I am jealous of your solar/instrument setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 One more from a few minutes ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 seems like the whole column ended up cooler than most models forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 seems like the whole column ended up cooler than most models forecast Hmmm if I recall....you were the one saying the models were too cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Still 29 here.. precip shield aimed at us still looks solid... lets hope the mountains dont totally shear it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Hmmm if I recall....you were the one saying the models were too cold yeah in the end i did say that. overall i was off a bit tho i picked up on it earlier than some just didnt get that into it down the stretch. ice doesnt excite me enough to pay that much attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This storm has turned into quite the mess. The Red Line of Metro is suspended between Twinbrook and Shady Grove, and has been for hours, due to wires hanging over the tracks. Lots of people in the outer burbs can't make it into the city.... I-70 East was closed for quite a while in Mount Airy due to an overturned truck that had been carrying embalming fluids and other chemicals, according to the Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Can make for good pictures though. If I had any skill and a decent camera, this could have been a nice shot. Nice Picture! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 seems like the whole column ended up cooler than most models forecast The whole "models struggle with CAD" thing is one weenie phrase that usually seems to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I honestly didn't follow anything leading up to last night's sleezzard, so it was a relative surprise to me in that regard. If we don't get any interesting precip this evening, I'm fairly OK with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 gfs looks warm in the bl on the maps.. havent looked at soundings. seems like it might end as some sloppy flakes but not amount to much or anything around here? It was warm in the bl yesterday too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The euro was horrible with surface temps yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The whole "models struggle with CAD" thing is one weenie phrase that usually seems to work out. yeah especially with a low on the coast. i think having all of it come overnight instead of into today probably helped too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 yeah especially with a low on the coast. i think having all of it come overnight instead of into today probably helped too. For sure, having all the rain occur at night helped out. I'm still at 32.5 here in northern calvert but 15 minutes to my south temps are 35 to 36. I looked at sounding from the NAM and they are pretty dicey for DC and points east with the next storm. A pretty deep isothermal layer right at freezing at 72hrs and a little warm layer at 66. The gfs is quite a bit colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 For sure, having all the rain occur at night helped out. I'm still at 32.5 here in northern calvert but 15 minutes to my south temps are 35 to 36. I looked at sounding from the NAM and they are pretty dicey for DC and points east with the next storm. A pretty deep isothermal layer right at freezing at 72hrs and a little warm layer at 66. The gfs is quite a bit colder. im going to hug the gfs for now.. it's been on a roll sort of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 For sure, having all the rain occur at night helped out. I'm still at 32.5 here in northern calvert but 15 minutes to my south temps are 35 to 36. I looked at sounding from the NAM and they are pretty dicey for DC and points east with the next storm. A pretty deep isothermal layer right at freezing at 72hrs and a little warm layer at 66. The gfs is quite a bit colder. Forecasting DC has just been SO EASY this winter This is why I've been in perpetual Wait And See mode over the last two months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Based on radar and surface temps now.. Id say we get frzn rain changing over to a little snow at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 it's like it never ice stormed out there now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Well... got power back. Tree cutting project my a**. Only my block was out tho, everyone else was fine from what I saw I got 1 pic...for some reason my cellphone camera isn't working anymore, so looks like this is all I will get for this storm By my best measurements, we saw around 0.4" of ice, which means folks to my north probably saw around 1/2". This pic don't really capture the extent of the ice, but these branches are weighed down 15ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Well... got power back. Tree cutting project my a**. Only my block was out tho, everyone else was fine from what I saw I got 1 pic...for some reason my cellphone camera isn't working anymore, so looks like this is all I will get for this storm By my best measurements, we saw around 0.4" of ice, which means folks to my north probably saw around 1/2". The pic don't do it justice either. looks like you got more than anyone else in the area.. congrats! btw, dont go toward the light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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