Tropical Depression Nine

[NorthHillsWx]

This system has escalated quite a bit from what the original thinking was. Definitely some potential for a strong hurricane especially in the middle of the gulf 

[WxWatcher007]

Now that we do have a well defined center and recon data that will be incorporated into the models, we should hopefully start to see gradual consensus on the eventual track and intensity. I'm still a touch skeptical, but far less so than yesterday given how much more compact this tends to be. These BoC systems can really produce.

Just goes to show how even in an otherwise historically inactive season things can change quickly. 

[Windspeed]

This system has escalated quite a bit from what the original thinking was. Definitely some potential for a strong hurricane especially in the middle of the gulf 

Having a closed surface circulation and its approximate location should give the TC models a better handle on environmental interaction. We'll have to see if there is RI potential prior to conditions becoming less favorable. I suppose there does exist the possibility of rapid intensification occurring, leading to some panic, only for the TC to rapidly weaken prior to landfall. It is an annoying forecast in that regard and subject to big changes quickly. It's tough to approximate exactly when strong mid-level shear will impede or disrupt a core, especially if the system intensifies faster than forecast. But no TC is going to be immune to 30+ kts of shear prior to landfall. Yet, before that shear escalates, the system will have very strong ventilation. Therefore, the ceiling is high through the first 72 hours. How close does the core get to the coast prior to shear obliterating it? Not like this would be the first time we've been psyched out by a hurricane in the GOM, of course.

[cardinalland]

It’s supposed to pass right over the loop current. And the tail end of a trough is often quite favorable. There’s a lot of moving pieces but a hurricane landfall looks plausible at the moment.

[Windspeed]

It’s supposed to pass right over the loop current. And the tail end of a trough is often quite favorable. There’s a lot of moving pieces but a hurricane landfall looks plausible at the moment.

The forecast track and storm motion keeps the center over relatively deep heat content. Obviously, shallow SSTs remain quite high and untapped due to limited frontal progression and miniscule TC activity so far this season. The system will not be a slow mover, so we must depend on the timing of development and changes in atmospheric conditions: How fast does the TC intensify versus how fast favorable atmospheric conditions deteriorate to hostile? The key limiting factors up to landfall are increasing mid-level shear and potential dry air encroachment to limit or weaken landfall intensity.

[olafminesaw]

And the GFS has folded like a house of cards

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Man, it looks really good on satellite right now. It’s got that look…

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

41 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

It’s supposed to pass right over the loop current. And the tail end of a trough is often quite favorable. There’s a lot of moving pieces but a hurricane landfall looks plausible at the moment.

The forecast track and storm motion keeps the center over relatively deep heat content. Obviously, shallow SSTs remain quite high and untapped due to limited frontal progression and miniscule TC activity so far this season. The system will not be a slow mover, so we must depend on the timing of development and changes in atmospheric conditions: How fast does the TC intensify versus how fast favorable atmospheric conditions deteriorate to hostile? The key limiting factors up to landfall are increasing mid-level shear and potential dry air encroachment to limit or weaken landfall intensity.

Looks like minimal cane landfall given just a cursory glance at things...if it looks a bit more compelling tomorrow I may write it up.

[TriPol]

I think this gets up to a major before it gets closer to the coast. The gulf has so much heat in it... just jet fuel for it. And if it slows down at all? 

[Windspeed]

I think this gets up to a major before it gets closer to the coast. The gulf has so much heat in it... just jet fuel for it. And if it slows down at all? 

Right now is the slowest motion we will see. The westerly steering flow in interaction with the mid-to-upper trough will push the TC towards the east and then begin to turn it poleward. At that point, it should be gaining forward motion into landfall.

[cardinalland]

Look at all those hot towers

 

Would agree on a C1 landfall being most likely right now. Reaching C3+ over the open ocean beforehand looks very attainable.

[NorthHillsWx]

I’m not going to over analyze individual model runs but if it takes a track like the GFS shows that’s really bad for surge at the mouth of the Mississippi, bay St. Louis, biloxi bay, and possibly mobile bay. Landfall intensity is important but if this peaks maybe 6-8 hours before landfall any weakening would not affect surge potential at all. That’s a very bad track in that regard

[Floydbuster]

Even if it weakens, the intensity offshore could have huge implications on potential storm surge.

[olafminesaw]

[Windspeed]

The first runs of the HAFS suites since classification are not impressive, to say the least. The TC gets walloped around 70'ish hours out and becomes very assymetric with advected dry air doing its thing. Something to keep in mind. Is the window there for a strong hurricane? Sure. But the TC needs to come together rapidly over the next 48 hours.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Floydbuster said:

Even if it weakens, the intensity offshore could have huge implications on potential storm surge.

Yea, should be more a hydro concern than a wind issue....strikes me as a system that will be weakening well before landfall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Anyone have latest links for Tomer Burg super ensemble and TCHP maps? Been away during the CONUS tropical respite over the past couple of years and some of my links seem to no longer be valid....Tomer seems like he is moving his stuff around.

Found this one for TCHP, but don't love it.

https://cwcgom.aoml.noaa.gov/cgom/OceanViewer/index_phod.html#

This was my go-to, hasn't been updated for a couple of years.

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/goos/gliders/images/tchp_conditions_latest.png

[Windspeed]

Anyone have latest links for Tomer Burg super ensemble and TCHP maps? Been away during the CONUS tropical respite over the past couple of years and some of my links seem to no longer be valid....Tomer seems like he is moving his stuff around.
Found this one for TCHP, but don't love it.
https://cwcgom.aoml.noaa.gov/cgom/OceanViewer/index_phod.html#
This was my go-to, hasn't been updated for a couple of years.

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/goos/gliders/images/tchp_conditions_latest.png

https://isotherm.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/weba/atlantic.php for updated TCHP maps. Sadly, many of the old NCEP and CPC sites are MIA these days for oceanic and atmospheric data.

[Newman]

55 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anyone have latest links for Tomer Burg super ensemble and TCHP maps? Been away during the CONUS tropical respite over the past couple of years and some of my links seem to no longer be valid....Tomer seems like he is moving his stuff around.

Found this one for TCHP, but don't love it.

https://cwcgom.aoml.noaa.gov/cgom/OceanViewer/index_phod.html#

This was my go-to, hasn't been updated for a couple of years.

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/goos/gliders/images/tchp_conditions_latest.png

Tomer's newest tropics site

https://polarwx.com/tropical/

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Newman said:

Tomer's newest tropics site

https://polarwx.com/tropical/

Yea, I found that, but not the super ensemble plot...his data seems to be in flux as he is in the process of moving to that site.

[40/70 Benchmark]

45 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

https://isotherm.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/weba/atlantic.php for updated TCHP maps. Sadly, many of the old NCEP and CPC sites are MIA these days for oceanic and atmospheric data.

Thanks.

Yea, this admin. has killed funding for data......it's why we lost N/CAR1 and the monthly QBO tabular data is no longer updated.