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Showing results for tags 'first advisory - cat 2 landfall mis/bama border'.
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The historically quiet Atlantic may have one final gasp before closing the door on the season, and this one is in the southwestern Gulf. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Southwestern Gulf of America: A trough of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Kelly We've all been tracking this one for a few days, and while odds have significantly increased, there's still a fair amount of uncertainty on what this one could actually become. While development looks likely with the geographically favorable genesis location of the Bay of Campeche (the concave nature of the region promotes spin) alongside warm SSTs and an upper level pattern favorable for divergence (promoting strong convection) there are issues with westerly shear if the system is not perfectly aligned with the jet coming from the west and potentially dry air. Most guidance at least at the moment is modest in intensity as it pulls the eventual system northeast into the northern Gulf coast.
