October 2026

[steve392]

6 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Dry and sunny days lead to an overperformance of high temps. Friday probably hits 80. Low 70s Halloween 

Gross!  Starting to remind me of 2024 fall minus the wildfires. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, steve392 said:

Gross!  Starting to remind me of 2024 fall minus the wildfires. 

Every even year this decade (2020, 2022, and 2024) has had record warmth in the early part of November. It looks like the trend will continue this year.

[psv88]

48 overnight

[donsutherland1]

The AIFS ensembles are particularly warm for the first week of November. The regular ECMWF ensembles are still warm (highs in the 60s), but cooler than their AI counterparts. The extended range of the NBM is also closer to the regular ECMWF ensembles. Both sets of ECMWF ensembles have high spreads (uncertainty), especially after November 3. 

However, the uncertainty concerns the magnitude of warmth, not whether it will be warmer than normal. The idea of a warmer than normal start to November has been a recurrent theme on the guidance. The most recent ECMWF weekly guidance is below.

 

[SACRUS]

58 / 40 and the great stretch continues for late October.  A touch cooler today and Wednesday then Thu - Sat should send most back to the 70s and temperatures will peak Friday with mid perhaps upper 70s.   Overall warm 11/1 and beyond and dry through the 2nd with the next chance of meaningful rain towards the 2nd as weep trough into center of the nation.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR:  81 (1963)
NYC: 82 (1963)
LGA: 79 (1963)
JFK: 78 (1963)


Lows:

EWR: 27 (1936)
NYC: 28 (1936)
LGA: 33 (1976)
JFK: 31 (1976)


Historical:

 

1764 - A "very remarkable storm of snow with high winds" produced 22 inches at Rutland in central Massachusetts. (David Ludlum)

 

1929 - A snowstorm dumped 27 inches upon Ishpeming, MI, in 24 hours to establish a state record. (David Ludlum)

1943: Coastal storm ends drought, rains on 25th - 28th DC had 3.41 inches of rain and Baltimore got 5.00 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1962 - An early season winter storm over New England blanketed northern Maine with 7 to 16 inches of snow, and southeastern New England with up to 3 inches of snow. Worcester MA received a record 4.7 inches of snow. (The Weather Channel)  The low temperature of 21 °F is the lowest temperature ever recorded in Richmond in October. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records)

1987 - Showers and thunderstorms produced locally heavy rain from Virginia to New York State. Fallen leaves made roads and sidewalks slick, and also clogged sewers. Rainfall totals of 1.55 inches at Newark NJ, 1.54 inches at Harrisburg PA, 1.27 inches at Scranton PA, and 1.22 inches at Atlantic City NJ, were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Low pressure brought snow and gale force winds to the Great Lakes Region, and snow and high winds to the north central U.S. Winds gusted to 47 mph at Lansing MI, and reached 55 mph at Pierre SD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Wintry weather invaded the northwestern U.S. A storm crossing the Central Rockies produced up to 23 inches of snow in the mountains east of Salt Lake City UT. "Indian Summer" continued in the Lower Ohio Valley and the Upper Great Lakes Region. Afternoon highs of 71 degrees at Marquette MI and 72 degrees at Sault Ste Marie MI were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1996: Thousands of homes in southern and central Texas were without power after strong storms dumped as much as a foot of rain. The Frio, Guadalupe, and Llano rivers spilled their banks, making roads impassable and stranding some motorists. The Llano crested at 30 feet -- 18 feet above flood stage -- and Llano County sheriff's deputies were evacuating homes downriver. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

2003: A strong cold front moved through the Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon, causing an outbreak of severe weather. An F0 tornado touched down in Hainesport, NJ, killing one person. This was the first tornado fatality in Burlington County, NJ history both in modern tornado records kept since 1950, and in reliable unofficial records extending back into the 1700s. The tornado cut a path 1/2 mile long and 30 yards wide. Although the tornado was F0, it is considered a significant tornado, usually F2 or greater, because of the fatality. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)


2006: An F1 tornado (waterspout) came ashore and caused significant damage on the west side of Apalachicola Florida. 

2006: An F1 tornado (waterspout) came ashore and caused significant damage on the west side of Apalachicola Florida. Marine boats sank, four homes destroyed, and part of a hospital roof collapsed. Hundreds of trees and power lines were down, but fortunately there were no serious injuries. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2007 Accord Publishing, USA)

[Stormlover74]

12 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Every even year this decade (2020, 2022, and 2024) has had record warmth in the early part of November. It looks like the trend will continue this year.

 

Not sure about record warmth yet but does look solidly above average. Which by next week is 65 to 70

[winterwx21]

I see after the late week 70s it looks like a minor cooldown for Halloween with high temps likely low-mid 60s. But a very warm week next week with 70s. In the long range the 2nd week of November looks like much cooler air that might end the growing season here. 

[bluewave]

Currently around the 15th warmest fall to date across the region. 

 

[donsutherland1]

The most recent NBM cycles have grown slightly cooler for the start of November. Nevertheless, readings remain well above average.

 

 

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

I see after the late week 70s it looks like a minor cooldown for Halloween with high temps likely low-mid 60s. But a very warm week next week with 70s. In the long range the 2nd week of November looks like much cooler air that might end the growing season here. 

It should get a lot more active. NAO/AO will be dropping, PNA rising.  Ensembles are getting a lot wetter. 

[NEG NAO]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It should get a lot more active. NAO/AO will be dropping, PNA rising.  Ensembles are getting a lot wetter. 

agreed -these snowfall totals have happened before - and we have never  experienced a SSW event or what ever else you prefer to call it  so early along with a strong El Nino - so anything is on the table IMO

[jm1220]

40 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

agreed

Congrats Philly.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be another fair day. Highs will top out in the lower 60s across much of the region. Afterward, temperatures will warm into the middle and upper 60s for the remainder of the work week. Much of the region could approach or reach 70° on Friday. Unseasonable warmth will continue into the start of November. Dry conditions will likely persist through next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.4°C for the week centered around October 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +5.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.22°C. ENSO Region 3.4 breaks the all-time record most recently set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was +12.57 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.303 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.4° (1.5° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Congrats Philly.

congrats everyone -( FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY ) !!!

[LibertyBell]

21 hours ago, steve392 said:

Gross!  Starting to remind me of 2024 fall minus the wildfires. 

Dont you people ever get tired of the endless rains? October 2024 was perfect any socalled wild fires aren't a problem here outside of August 1995. This isn't California.  And this weather is exactly what we need.

 

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It should get a lot more active. NAO/AO will be dropping, PNA rising.  Ensembles are getting a lot wetter. 

Yes temporarily. 

 

On 10/25/2026 at 9:13 PM, Keith Central PA said:

2001-2 was dry..doubt with all that southern branch moisture it would be a match

There can be a lot of southern branch moisture but it doesn't mean it will come north.  It didn't in 1965-66 and 1972-73 and it didn't in 2001-02 I envision it hitting the Carolinas and Virginia not up here thankfully. 2024 kickstarted a drier pattern similar to the earlier one.

 

 

On 10/26/2026 at 3:24 PM, MJO812 said:

72 here

Disgusting 

LOSE WEIGHT

22 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Straight up San Diego weather pattern here. Enjoying it before days and days of 50 and rain


.

Dont be so sure that will happen and if it does it will be a small blip and this pattern will return in a modified form by later December into January.

 

[psv88]

62 today. Really an incredible month 

[guinness77]

39 minutes ago, psv88 said:

62 today. Really an incredible month 

Not for people who like nice weather. 

[SI Mailman]

5 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

congrats everyone -( FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY ) !!!

 

Can we push that back about 48 hours for the GTA VI release?  

[donsutherland1]

The latest NBM remains very mild for the start of November. Uncertainty increases at the end of the run.

[psv88]

38.3 this morning 

[TriPol]

13 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

congrats everyone -( FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY ) !!!

Oh boy.... 

[jm1220]

13 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

congrats everyone -( FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY ) !!!

Ehh. Not east of the city or anywhere near a coast. 

[SACRUS]

55  / 34 the nice stretch continues on - partly sunny dry and low - mid 60s back to or near 70 Thursday and then a very warm Friday with low - mid 70s.  The weekend remains dry but drop back into the 60s Sat / Sun and then overall warm start to the nov through the 5/6th beyond there looks a bit unsettled with trough into the west and systems coming across and up to/through or west.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 84 (2023)
NYC: 83 (1919)
LGA: 82 (2023)
JFK: 81 (2023)

Lows:

EWR: 25 (1936)
NYC: 29 (1976)
LGA: 33 (1976)
JFK: 30 (1976)


Historical:

 

1846: In the spring of 1846, a group of nearly 90 emigrants left Springfield, Illinois, and headed west to California. The Donner party arrived at the Great Salt Lake and still needed to cross the Sierra Nevada Mountains late in the season. On this day, a heavy snowfall blocked the pass, thus trapping the emigrants. Only 45 of the original 89 emigrants reached California the following year.


1846: A group of inexperienced travelers was caught unaware by a major storm which dumped 5 feet of snow on Donner Pass in California. Their wagons and cattle were trapped along with them and only 45 of the 79 people in the party survived the winter. The group came to be known as the Donner Party, a part of western folklore. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1919: 87° Maximum late season record in Washington, DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records)   Record highs were up and down the East Coast including: Lynchburg, VA: 88°, Baltimore, MD: 87°, Richmond, VA: 87°, Washington, DC: 87°, Charlotte, NC: 86°, Greensboro, NC: 86°, Raleigh, NC: 86°, Savannah, GA: 86°, Norfolk, VA: 86°, Roanoke, VA: 86°, Huntington, WV: 85°, Wilmington, NC: 85°, Atlanta, GA: 84°, Wilmington, DE: 83°, New York (Central Park), NY: 83°, Hartford, CT: 81°, Boston, MA: 81°, Milton, MA: 81°, Asheville, NC: 80°, Harrisburg, PA: 79°, Worcester, MA: 76°, Avoca, PA: 75° and Williamsport, PA: 75°.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1936 - The temperature at Layton, NJ, dipped to 9 above zero to establish a state record for the month of October. (The Weather Channel)

1971 - A severe early season blizzard raged across the Plateau Region and Rocky Mountain Region. Heavy snow blocked railroads and interstate highways, and record cold accompanied the storm. Lander WY received 27 inches of snow, and the temperature at Big Piney WY plunged to 15 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum)

1973: Several inches of snow fell in the Georgia Mountains. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
 

1987 - Thunderstorms over the San Joaquin Valley of California produced three-quarters of an inch of rain in thirty minutes at Placerville, and caused numerous power outages due to lightning. Rain began to diminish in the northeastern U.S., but some flooding continued in Vermont, eastern New York and northern New Jersey. One inch rains in Vermont clogged culverts and sewers with fallen leaves, resulting in erosion of dirt roads. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Arctic cold invaded the north central U.S. Valentine, NE, dipped to 8 degrees, and Cutbank, MT, reported a morning low of one degree above zero. The temperature at Estes Park CO dipped to 15 degrees, but then soared thirty degrees in less than thirty minutes. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - A storm crossing the western U.S. produced 10 to 20 inches of snow across northern and central Wyoming, with 22 inches reported at Burgess Junction. Seven cities in the Lower Ohio Valley and the Upper Great Lakes Region reported record high temperatures for the date as readings again warmed into the 70s. Alpena MI reported a record high of 75 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1991:  2.4 inches of snow at Yakima, WA was enough to tie the record for most ever snowfall in the entire month of October.
(Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
 

[SACRUS]

Ridgey look through Day 10 Nov 5/6

 

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Ridgey look through Day 10 Nov 5/6

 

As expected then

The surface-level weather effects from a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event in the United States typically last for 2 to 6 weeks on average. [1]

While a major SSW event drastically disrupts the polar vortex high up in the stratosphere, its effects do not impact ground weather immediately. Instead, there is a 10- to 20-day time lag as the atmospheric changes ripple downward to the surface, causing the jet stream to become wavy and unstable. [1, 2, 3]

Once those effects arrive, the impacts on U.S. weather patterns include:

• Prolonged Cold Spells: Rather than a brief cold snap, the weak polar vortex patterns lock in atmospheric blocks that can extend below-average temperatures for several weeks. [1, 2]
• Increased Storminess: A wavy jet stream frequently shifts the storm track, increasing the likelihood of extreme precipitation and winter storms. [1, 2]
• Regional Variation: An SSW event does not guarantee uniform cold across the entire country. For instance, a collapsed or split polar vortex often unleashes severe cold into regions like the Northern Plains or the Midwest, while other regions like the Eastern Seaboard can occasionally experience temporary warming depending on exactly where the cold air mass migrates.
   
   
  [1, 2, 3]

 

 

The previous expectations of a back loaded winter by many might turn into a front and back loaded winter with a break in the middle in January - time will tell