October 2026

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, MarcmmKU said:

It is very likely nyc will not see a freeze until December. In recent years the first <= 32 F night in central park has gotten later and later. some years it doesnt happen until mid December.

The latest first freeze for LGA which is the UHI capital was 1-4-16. NYC snuck one in on 11-24-15.

The average first freeze for LGA since then has been 11-30 and NYC 11-20.

Frost/Freeze Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2015	03-29 (2015)	27	01-04 (2016)	15	280
2001	03-28 (2001)	31	12-23 (2001)	32	269
1998	03-22 (1998)	31	12-22 (1998)	24	274
2021	04-02 (2021)	29	12-19 (2021)	31	260

 

Data for November 24, 2015 through November 24, 2015
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	MONTAUK AIRPORT	WBAN	37
NY	SETAUKET STRONG	COOP	35
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	33
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	32
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	31

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Minimum	03-01 (2020)		11-08 (2019)		226
Mean	03-25		11-30		249
Maximum	04-06 (2016)		01-04 (2016)		281
2025	03-23 (2025)	32	12-04 (2025)	25	255
2024	03-24 (2024)	32	11-30 (2024)	32	250
2023	03-30 (2023)	32	11-25 (2023)	32	239
2022	03-30 (2022)	30	11-19 (2022)	32	233
2021	04-02 (2021)	29	12-19 (2021)	31	260
2020	03-01 (2020)	26	12-08 (2020)	32	281
2019	03-13 (2019)	32	11-08 (2019)	31	239
2018	04-02 (2018)	32	11-15 (2018)	30	226
2017	03-23 (2017)	26	11-10 (2017)	27	231
2016	04-06 (2016)	32	12-09 (2016)	32	246
2015	03-29 (2015)	27	01-04 (2016)	15	280

 

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Minimum	03-01 (2020)		10-31 (2020)		218
Mean	03-28		11-20		236
Maximum	04-10 (2016)		12-09 (2016)		250
2025	04-09 (2025)	31	11-29 (2025)	32	233
2024	03-24 (2024)	31	11-30 (2024)	30	250
2023	03-30 (2023)	31	11-25 (2023)	30	239
2022	03-30 (2022)	29	11-19 (2022)	31	233
2021	04-03 (2021)	32	11-23 (2021)	32	233
2020	03-01 (2020)	25	10-31 (2020)	32	243
2019	03-18 (2019)	32	11-08 (2019)	29	234
2018	04-09 (2018)	32	11-14 (2018)	32	218
2017	03-23 (2017)	23	11-10 (2017)	25	231
2016	04-10 (2016)	31	12-09 (2016)	29	242
2015	04-01 (2015)	32	11-24 (2015)	32	236

[NEG NAO]

3 hours ago, MarcmmKU said:

It is very likely nyc will not see a freeze until December. In recent years the first <= 32 F night in central park has gotten later and later. some years it doesnt happen until mid December.

Heat Island effect - most areas away from the city will experience < 32 well before NYC

[MarcmmKU]

47 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Heat Island effect - most areas away from the city will experience < 32 well before NYC

Well yes obviously. Many places in the metro have already had a freeze. 

[MarcmmKU]

21 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

Noaa Predictions VS. Actual Results

Why do they never forecast BN in the northeast. I know it’s a bad bet most years but is this the only reason?

[donsutherland1]

The remainder of this week will see highs in the lower 60s. Friday will be briefly cooler with highs mainly in the upper 50s, but temperatures will likely return to the lower 60s for the weekend. Dry conditions are likely through the weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C. ENSO Region 3.4 ties the all-time record set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was -35.00 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.237 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 71% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.8° (0.9° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[LibertyBell]

On 10/19/2026 at 8:46 PM, donsutherland1 said:

There may have been a mild inversion, which explains the slightly warmer readings at MPO.

We had the mother of all inversions last night! The low at Mount Pocono was 47 while it was 37 at Scranton. It got down to 44 here. All the local forecasters said the higher winds kept the temperature higher in the mountains.  It was 34 at Schnecksville which is where my nursery is located, south and west of here. The high was 66 here the perfect cloudless blue sky day, I spent the entire afternoon hanging up paintings.

 

 

On 10/19/2026 at 8:44 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Interesting information. The NYBG labeled it 'Mother of Pearl.'

I have to find this beauty.

 

On 10/19/2026 at 1:41 PM, Brian5671 said:

That was during a nasty fall drought-I remember burn bans here

I remember that as the best October we have ever had. 0 rainfall! Like a perfect game lol.

 

 

 

On 10/19/2026 at 5:31 PM, NEG NAO said:

Dry Stretch ahead

The perfect weather.

 

21 hours ago, golfer67 said:

Holding strong so far, heat is staying off until my house goes below 58. Hit 58 briefly Sunday morning. I'm not a "badge of honor" guy, I'm just not looking forward to these oil prices lol.

How do you handle the cold nights? Your pipes will freeze!

 

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

You can see on days like today when the cooling influence of the offshore flow wanes we are right back to upper 60s to near 70° in spots. 
 

This is the perfect weather no one should have any complaints about this idyllic pattern.

 

13 hours ago, rclab said:

Good morning Don. Perhaps the beautiful photo you posted is not the original Chicago Peace rose, I thought of.  My mom was a rose aficionado. I planted a peace rose for her in the mid 60’s. Jackson and Perkins still sells them now as they did over 60 years ago. Thank you again Don. The photo helped me remember and I do try to ‘preserve my memories’ as always ….

 

 

 

 

. 

Wow it's very beautiful!

 

13 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Next time I'm at the NYBG, I'll check where the peace rose bush is. If I recall correctly, it's at the north side of the rose garden. The rose I photographed was near the center.

Thanks please let me know Don I'm interested in acquiring one of these for my rose garden!

 

12 hours ago, SACRUS said:

57 / 37 continue with this amazing stretch for this time of the year.  Warmer day today with max into the low 70s in the warm spots otherwise mid - upper 60s.   Mainly dry and the onshore keeps it cooler on and along the coast and warmer inland.  Thu and next Mon look like next warmer days low - mid 70s in the warmest spots otherwise 60s and clear very california like stretch.  Outside another cutoff low it looks mainly dry through the 30th.  Overall near / slightly above normal beyond there mainly by a majority of days +2 to +5 with a few at or -2.  Nie opportunity to dry things out.

 

 

 

  

This is the absolute perfect weather Tony

 

12 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 80 (2021)
NYC: 80 (1969)
LGA: 80 (2021)
JFK: 81 (1969)


Lows:

EWR: 31 (1974)
NYC: 31 (1974)
LGA: 32 (1972)
JFK: 33 (1974)

Historical:

 

1770 - An exceedingly great storm struck eastern New England causing extensive coastal damage from Massachusetts to Maine, and the highest tide in 47 years. (David Ludlum)

1770: An exceedingly great storm struck eastern New England causing extensive coastal damage from Massachusetts to Maine, and the highest tide in 47 years.

1835: 6.0 inches of snow fell at Ft. Snelling, MN. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1940: The earliest snow greater than one inch in Washington, DC, fell on October 20, 1940 with 1.4 inches and the second earliest greater than one inch was October 30, 1925 with 2.2 inches. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) (Ref. October Snows by Herb Close)

1952: Central Park in New York City had their earliest measurable snowfall with a half inch falling. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)
 

1983 - Remnants of Pacific Hurricane Tico caused extensive flooding in central and south central Oklahoma. Oklahoma City set daily rainfall records with 1.45 inch on the 19th, and 6.28 inches on the 20th. (17th-21st) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Cold arctic air invaded the Upper Midwest, and squalls in the Lake Superior snowbelt produced heavy snow in eastern Ashland County and northern Iron County of Wisconsin. Totals ranged up to 18 inches at Mellen. In the western U.S., the record high of 69 degrees at Seattle WA was their twenty-fifth of the year, their highest number of record highs for any given year. Bakersfield CA reported a record 146 days in a row with daily highs 80 degrees or above. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Unseasonably warm weather continued in the western U.S. In California, afternoon highs of 96 degrees at Redding and Red Bluff were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Forty-nine cities reported record low temperatures for the date as readings dipped into the 20s and 30s across much of the south central and southeastern U.S. Lows of 32 degrees at Lake Charles LA and 42 degrees at Lakeland FL were records for October, and Little Rock AR reported their earliest freeze of record. Snow blanketed the higher elevations of Georgia and the Carolinas. Melbourne FL dipped to 47 degrees shortly before midnight to surpass the record low established that morning. Showers and thunderstorms brought heavy rain to parts of the northeastern U.S. Autumn leaves on the ground clogged drains and ditches causing flooding. Up to 4.10 inches of rain soaked southern Vermont in three days. Flood waters washed 600 feet of railroad track, resulting in a train derailment. (The National Weather Summary)(Storm Data)

1994: 1994 The rampaging San Jacinto River (20 feet+ higher than normal) caused 8 pipelines carrying various petroleum products to rupture near Houston, TX; the river ignited in flame and smoke which shot 100s of feet into the air. More than 500 (mostly minor) burn/inhalation injuries. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

1996: New Englandwas in the middle of a four day nor'easter which dumped tremendous rainfall totals, especially over eastern sections. 19.19 inches of rain fell at Camp Ellis, ME. 13.03 inches was recorded at Newburyport, MA. Portland, ME set a new all-time 24 hour rainfall record with 13.32 inches. Other rainfall totals included 17.21 inches at Sanford, ME, 12.23 inches at Portsmouth, NH, 11.21 inches at Bedford, MA, and 7.89 inches at Boston, MA. The storm tapped moisture from Hurricane Lili, far to the southeast over the Atlantic, which contributed to the excessive rainfall. The nor'easter also produced high winds along coastal sections. A wind gust to 81 mph was recorded at Little Compton, RI. One person was killed and total damage was over $50 million dollars.(Ref. Wilson Weather History) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

Did that October 1996 storm affect us? I dont remember it.

And how much did we get in the 1940 snowfall?

 

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The latest first freeze for LGA which is the UHI capital was 1-4-16. NYC snuck one in on 11-24-15.

The average first freeze for LGA since then has been 11-30 and NYC 11-20.

Frost/Freeze Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2015	03-29 (2015)	27	01-04 (2016)	15	280
2001	03-28 (2001)	31	12-23 (2001)	32	269
1998	03-22 (1998)	31	12-22 (1998)	24	274
2021	04-02 (2021)	29	12-19 (2021)	31	260

 

Data for November 24, 2015 through November 24, 2015
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	MONTAUK AIRPORT	WBAN	37
NY	SETAUKET STRONG	COOP	35
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	33
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	32
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	31

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Minimum	03-01 (2020)		11-08 (2019)		226
Mean	03-25		11-30		249
Maximum	04-06 (2016)		01-04 (2016)		281
2025	03-23 (2025)	32	12-04 (2025)	25	255
2024	03-24 (2024)	32	11-30 (2024)	32	250
2023	03-30 (2023)	32	11-25 (2023)	32	239
2022	03-30 (2022)	30	11-19 (2022)	32	233
2021	04-02 (2021)	29	12-19 (2021)	31	260
2020	03-01 (2020)	26	12-08 (2020)	32	281
2019	03-13 (2019)	32	11-08 (2019)	31	239
2018	04-02 (2018)	32	11-15 (2018)	30	226
2017	03-23 (2017)	26	11-10 (2017)	27	231
2016	04-06 (2016)	32	12-09 (2016)	32	246
2015	03-29 (2015)	27	01-04 (2016)	15	280

 

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Minimum	03-01 (2020)		10-31 (2020)		218
Mean	03-28		11-20		236
Maximum	04-10 (2016)		12-09 (2016)		250
2025	04-09 (2025)	31	11-29 (2025)	32	233
2024	03-24 (2024)	31	11-30 (2024)	30	250
2023	03-30 (2023)	31	11-25 (2023)	30	239
2022	03-30 (2022)	29	11-19 (2022)	31	233
2021	04-03 (2021)	32	11-23 (2021)	32	233
2020	03-01 (2020)	25	10-31 (2020)	32	243
2019	03-18 (2019)	32	11-08 (2019)	29	234
2018	04-09 (2018)	32	11-14 (2018)	32	218
2017	03-23 (2017)	23	11-10 (2017)	25	231
2016	04-10 (2016)	31	12-09 (2016)	29	242
2015	04-01 (2015)	32	11-24 (2015)	32	236

LGA has a very artificial microclimate I trust their numbers even less than NYCs. 

 

On 10/19/2026 at 11:59 AM, winterwx21 said:

Of course I buy veggies at the grocery store too. But like many people I also grow a vegetable garden. You have a problem with people growing vegetable gardens? All I did was comment about being happy that we didn't get a frost yet. I didn't say anything about clouds. What a strange comment from you. 

I don't know I guess I just dont see the point of having a vegetable garden. They're not pretty to look at and they don't last that long you have to replant them every year. I used to do that years ago but no longer. They attract too many unseemly insects. The last year I had a vegetable garden was 2013. I graduated to planting ornamental trees and bushes that will exist long after I'm gone. They're also great for the environment and attract many birds and butterflies and even rabbits and deer. A male deer came here right to my windows today as I was hanging up paintings of...... what else, deer lol. He was really curious and stared right at me and even stopped chewing on the plants I have near one of my ponds to look lol. This summer I planted bee balm which is a hummingbird magnet. My dear dad planted mint here more than  30 years ago that's still alive.  There's Japanese Maples on this property that our family planted back in the early 90s. 

But if you are going to plant a vegetable garden you can't complain about it not raining. My view on that is when you plant something it's your responsibility to water it, not Mother Nature's.  Besides I happen to love watering because the water goes exactly where I want it to not places where I don't want it. And rainfall brings too many insects specifically mosquitoes which I really despise!

 

 

[forkyfork]

free libertybell 

[rclab]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

We had the mother of all inversions last night! The low at Mount Pocono was 47 while it was 37 at Scranton. It got down to 44 here. All the local forecasters said the higher winds kept the temperature higher in the mountains.  It was 34 at Schnecksville which is where my nursery is located, south and west of here. The high was 66 here the perfect cloudless blue sky day, I spent the entire afternoon hanging up paintings.

 

 

I have to find this beauty.

 

I remember that as the best October we have ever had. 0 rainfall! Like a perfect game lol.

 

 

 

The perfect weather.

 

How do you handle the cold nights? Your pipes will freeze!

 

This is the perfect weather no one should have any complaints about this idyllic pattern.

 

Wow it's very beautiful!

 

Thanks please let me know Don I'm interested in acquiring one of these for my rose garden!

 

This is the absolute perfect weather Tony

 

Did that October 1996 storm affect us? I dont remember it.

And how much did we get in the 1940 snowfall?

 

LGA has a very artificial microclimate I trust their numbers even less than NYCs. 

 

I don't know I guess I just dont see the point of having a vegetable garden. They're not pretty to look at and they don't last that long you have to replant them every year. I used to do that years ago but no longer. They attract too many unseemly insects. The last year I had a vegetable garden was 2013. I graduated to planting ornamental trees and bushes that will exist long after I'm gone. They're also great for the environment and attract many birds and butterflies and even rabbits and deer. A male deer came here right to my windows today as I was hanging up paintings of...... what else, deer lol. He was really curious and stared right at me and even stopped chewing on the plants I have near one of my ponds to look lol. This summer I planted bee balm which is a hummingbird magnet. My dear dad planted mint here more than  30 years ago that's still alive.  There's Japanese Maples on this property that our family planted back in the early 90s. 

But if you are going to plant a vegetable garden you can't complain about it not raining. My view on that is when you plant something it's your responsibility to water it, not Mother Nature's.  Besides I happen to love watering because the water goes exactly where I want it to not places where I don't want it. And rainfall brings too many insects specifically mosquitoes which I really despise!

 

 

Forky, Liberty is free …….. he found a way. As always …..

[psv88]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

We had the mother of all inversions last night! The low at Mount Pocono was 47 while it was 37 at Scranton. It got down to 44 here. All the local forecasters said the higher winds kept the temperature higher in the mountains.  It was 34 at Schnecksville which is where my nursery is located, south and west of here. The high was 66 here the perfect cloudless blue sky day, I spent the entire afternoon hanging up paintings.

 

 

I have to find this beauty.

 

I remember that as the best October we have ever had. 0 rainfall! Like a perfect game lol.

 

 

 

The perfect weather.

 

How do you handle the cold nights? Your pipes will freeze!

 

This is the perfect weather no one should have any complaints about this idyllic pattern.

 

Wow it's very beautiful!

 

Thanks please let me know Don I'm interested in acquiring one of these for my rose garden!

 

This is the absolute perfect weather Tony

 

Did that October 1996 storm affect us? I dont remember it.

And how much did we get in the 1940 snowfall?

 

LGA has a very artificial microclimate I trust their numbers even less than NYCs. 

 

I don't know I guess I just dont see the point of having a vegetable garden. They're not pretty to look at and they don't last that long you have to replant them every year. I used to do that years ago but no longer. They attract too many unseemly insects. The last year I had a vegetable garden was 2013. I graduated to planting ornamental trees and bushes that will exist long after I'm gone. They're also great for the environment and attract many birds and butterflies and even rabbits and deer. A male deer came here right to my windows today as I was hanging up paintings of...... what else, deer lol. He was really curious and stared right at me and even stopped chewing on the plants I have near one of my ponds to look lol. This summer I planted bee balm which is a hummingbird magnet. My dear dad planted mint here more than  30 years ago that's still alive.  There's Japanese Maples on this property that our family planted back in the early 90s. 

But if you are going to plant a vegetable garden you can't complain about it not raining. My view on that is when you plant something it's your responsibility to water it, not Mother Nature's.  Besides I happen to love watering because the water goes exactly where I want it to not places where I don't want it. And rainfall brings too many insects specifically mosquitoes which I really despise!

 

 

im so proud of you

[Stormlover74]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

free libertybell 

Biberty

[Boom-nado]

On 10/18/2026 at 10:24 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Beautiful pink asters. A great native fall perennial that should be used in place of non native mums.

34 at KFOK already. Forecast low of 35, likely makes it to the upper 20s in the pine barrens.


.

 

On 10/19/2026 at 6:32 AM, qg_omega said:

drought pattern re-emerging 

Yeah, in Phoenix

On 10/19/2026 at 7:52 AM, winterwarlock said:

31 this morning 

yesterday was 32

Brrrr...

On 10/19/2026 at 9:39 AM, Brian5671 said:

all the long term modeling (For what it's worth) shows a wet east coast.

Good for the emerging drought

On 10/19/2026 at 10:01 AM, rclab said:

Good morning S h. Accu weather long range, as of today, shows December 3rd. This, of course, will change numerous times in the weeks ahead,

I always trust the 40 day outlook

On 10/19/2026 at 10:57 AM, forkyfork said:

denier board

Truer words

On 10/19/2026 at 11:59 AM, winterwx21 said:

Of course I buy veggies at the grocery store too. But like many people I also grow a vegetable garden. You have a problem with people growing vegetable gardens? All I did was comment about being happy that we didn't get a frost yet. I didn't say anything about clouds. What a strange comment from you. 

Truer words

On 10/19/2026 at 12:02 PM, Michael05192016 said:

Hope we can get Halloween to be like the one that was shown in that epic 1980's Steven Spielberg movie "E.T. the Extraterrestrial". Would be nice to have mid 70's and sun for Halloween with no jackets or coats. 

Nah, more fun with overcast skies and a chill in the air.

On 10/19/2026 at 1:37 PM, STORMANLI said:

34°

Frozen Dew

Water freezes at 32 (google it)

16 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

POTENTIAL UNUSUAL POLAR VORTEX  STRETCHING/DISTRUPTION EARLY NOVEMBER

If this verifies later season stretching/disruptions become more likely and December might not be as warm overall as now expected

 

What's a DISTRUPTION?

9 hours ago, forkyfork said:

free libertybell 

No no no

7 hours ago, rclab said:

Forky, Liberty is free …….. he found a way. As always …..

Where there's a will...

6 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Biberty

This is a made up word

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

We had the mother of all inversions last night! The low at Mount Pocono was 47 while it was 37 at Scranton. It got down to 44 here. All the local forecasters said the higher winds kept the temperature higher in the mountains.  It was 34 at Schnecksville which is where my nursery is located, south and west of here. The high was 66 here the perfect cloudless blue sky day, I spent the entire afternoon hanging up paintings.

MPO had some of the warmest departures in the area due to the much higher minimums.

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
152 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026

...................................

...THE MOUNT POCONO PA CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 20 2026...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD: 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD: 1901 TO 2026


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         65   3:31 PM  75    1963  56      9       59        
  MINIMUM         44  11:59 PM  18    1972  37      7       44        
  AVERAGE         55                        46      9       52     

 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
227 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026

...................................

...THE KENNEDY NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 20 2026...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1948 TO 2026


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         71    254 PM  81    1969  63      8       68       
  MINIMUM         48    449 AM  32    1952  48      0       55       
  AVERAGE         60                        56      4       62    

[winterwarlock]

71/33 split yesterday

[rclab]

1 hour ago, Boom-nado said:

 

Yeah, in Phoenix

Brrrr...

Good for the emerging drought

I always trust the 40 day outlook

Truer words

Truer words

Nah, more fun with overcast skies and a chill in the air.

Water freezes at 32 (google it)

What's a DISTRUPTION?

No no no

Where there's a will...

This is a made up word

Good morning B-n. It’s actually a 90 day forecast which places its verification chances in the  range of the 5+1 number pick.
An interesting recreation of a, due to limitation, Liberty post. I have a feeling that Liberty may sincerely enjoy it. Stay well, as always …..

[guinness77]

10 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Biberty

6-7 

[donsutherland1]

Yesterday, the ECMWF announced, "A finer 0.1° resolution is now published alongside the existing 0.25°, for the IFS streams (the AIFS streams remain 0.25° only). It is produced from the same high-resolution (~9 km) forecast." 

So, how did the new higher-resolution map perform with regard to this morning's low temperatures in the NYC area? The 10/21 0z run did quite well with one exception.

Preliminary Lows: October 21, 2026:

Bridgeport: 49°
Islip: 50°
New York City: 50°
Newark: 48°
White Plains: 41° (off by 4°)

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, rclab said:

Good morning B-n. It’s actually a 90 day forecast which places its verification chances in the  range of the 5+1 number pick.
An interesting recreation of a, due to limitation, Liberty post. I have a feeling that Liberty may sincerely enjoy it. Stay well, as always …..

Maybe we are moving in the direction of making some small improvements on that front if the claims about this new AI corrected version of the EPS weeklies turn out to be correct. 
 

 

[donsutherland1]

As a further test of the new higher-resolution ECMWF, I pulled the data for today's high temperatures for select NYC area locations. This data is also from the 10/21 0z cycle. It will be interesting to see how things turn out.

[FPizz]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yesterday, the ECMWF announced, "A finer 0.1° resolution is now published alongside the existing 0.25°, for the IFS streams (the AIFS streams remain 0.25° only). It is produced from the same high-resolution (~9 km) forecast." 

So, how did the new higher-resolution map perform with regard to this morning's low temperatures in the NYC area? The 10/21 0z run did quite well with one exception.

Preliminary Lows: October 21, 2026:

Bridgeport: 49°
Islip: 50°
New York City: 50°
Newark: 48°
White Plains: 41° (off by 4°)

 

Really cool.  Interesting that White Plains was off by so much.  That is a huge miss for that location.

[psv88]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

As a further test of the new higher-resolution ECMWF, I pulled the data for today's high temperatures for select NYC area locations. This data is also from the 10/21 0z cycle. It will be interesting to see how things turn out.

ISP hit 59, warmer here at 63

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, FPizz said:

Really cool.  Interesting that White Plains was off by so much.  That is a huge miss for that location.

Yes. It will be interesting to see how it fares in coming days. 

[uofmiami]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. It will be interesting to see how it fares in coming days. 

I'm curious how it'll do with precipitation amounts, but we'll have to wait a bit for that.