October 2026

[FPizz]

13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

2024 reached into the 80's the warmest Halloween on record and 2019 reached close to 80 BUT both 2012 and 2020 Halloweens were cancelled in many towns - 2012 because of power outages and damage from Sandy and 2020 because of Covid and 2012 and 2020 were both one of the coldest Halloweens on record with highs only in the 40's anyways - 2011 had measurable snow a couple days before Halloween

 

2020 had some snow flakes around on the 30th.  

[STORMANLI]

34°

Frozen Dew

[Brian5671]

45 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

2024 : 83 in EWR / New Brunswick area NJ

That was during a nasty fall drought-I remember burn bans here

[greenmtnwx]

7 hours ago, qg_omega said:

drought pattern re-emerging 

You can’t be serious lol. 

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

You can’t be serious lol. 

There's a reason why he's 5 posted...

[JerseyWx]

46 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

You can’t be serious lol. 

Doesn't rain for 3 days= drought.

[psv88]

4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

What’s your elevation? If your up on the moraine at 200’ or something it makes sense. You’re cold on CAA but do not radiate well. I was up at whiteface in the Adirondacks a couple winters ago and it was -30 in the valley but -10 at the base of the mountain 1,000’ higher.


.

Exactly 200 on top of the hill

[psv88]

4 hours ago, uofmiami said:

37.2 in Syosset & 35.7 in Muttontown this morning.  Any winds at your station with elevation?

No wind…yet two nights ago i was the coldest in the area and wind did stay up. 

[steve392]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

That was during a nasty fall drought-I remember burn bans here

Lots of fires with smoke for days. 

 

Gorgeous afternoon, 65, bright blue skies.  

[psv88]

64 and beautiful today

[NEG NAO]

Dry Stretch ahead

[NEG NAO]

Noaa Predictions VS. Actual Results

[jm1220]

24 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Noaa Predictions VS. Actual Results

I don’t even pay attention to their winter outlooks. They just put climo Nina or Nino up and use that. They shouldn’t even waste their time if they do no other research. Like we saw the last couple winters there are plenty of other factors that can override ENSO. 

[cleetussnow]

Kinda looks like 50/50.  Eyeballing it, but I don't see skill here.  I would put money they are right this year, however given the screaming signal.

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures are now moderating. Most of this week will see highs in the lower 60s. A strong storm will stay too offshore to bring rain to the region this week. Some elevated high tides are possible.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C. ENSO Region 3.4 ties the all-time record set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was -30.17 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.902 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 69% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.7° (0.8° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.8° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[donsutherland1]

12 hours ago, rclab said:

Good morning Don. Ironically the name of the rose, at least the J&P version, is Chicago Peace. When I was young it was considered one of the most beautiful ever developed. As always ….

Interesting information. The NYBG labeled it 'Mother of Pearl.'

[donsutherland1]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

The most perfect week of weather.

 

Hopefully not I'd love a repeat of 1965-66

 

31 here both mornings

 

The clear blue skies for days on end is why I love October. 

 

Dont need any more rain this month.

 

Hopefully not. And predicting 5 inches of rain in a winter month is a very bold call. It could just as easily be suppressed and we get nice clear skies like we are getting now. I would like a repeat of 1965-66.

Suppressed pattern is also possible.  Just look at this week.

 

And most importantly clear skies all week!

 

How strong was that 1749 hurricane and how much snow did we get in the 1940 storm?

31 here both mornings.

 

It's staying offshore. 

 

Onshore flow is fine as long as there are no clouds.

 

But unlike summer zero clouds with this pattern in October.

 

 

Hence warming temps. 

 

Even with 1551 ft of elevation I was only 1.5 degrees colder. And MPO stayed at 32.

 

No clouds Tony!

Yes this whole week will be like this.

 

Ugh you need to buy your veggies at the grocery store like normal people do. I'm ecstatic there won't be any clouds for the next 10 days!

MPO only got down to 32 and Scranton to 30. It was 31 here both mornings. 

Interesting that Scranton got down to 30 the night before and 34 last night while I was 31 both nights.  My sensor results were as follows:

30.9. 30.9, 31.3, 31.3

30.7, 31.3, 31.5, 32.0

Same 4 sensors in the same order both nights. The first night had a longer time below freezing it was below freezing from 12:30 am to 8:30 am that night so 8 hours. That's a hard freeze even if the low was 31.

 

NO CLOUDS EITHER.

 

Government will need to start issuing mandates in the future and insurance will need to stop covering those regions.

 

Lol it's that time of year. I'm just happy there will be no clouds this entire week!

 

There may have been a mild inversion, which explains the slightly warmer readings at MPO.

[Prue11]

32.1 for a low early this morning. Heat kicking on every couple of hours. with home heating oil approaching $6 a gallon it’d be nice to have some warmer temps this fall

[golfer67]

1 hour ago, Prue11 said:

32.1 for a low early this morning. Heat kicking on every couple of hours. with home heating oil approaching $6 a gallon it’d be nice to have some warmer temps this fall

Holding strong so far, heat is staying off until my house goes below 58. Hit 58 briefly Sunday morning. I'm not a "badge of honor" guy, I'm just not looking forward to these oil prices lol.

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, Lucy Pull said:

Yup agree on the omega look. Still think we’re prone to offshore flow and a similar look through 10 days. Have to see how long it takes to erode that. Modeling as you mention does look to push that out. We lose any semblance of negative heights northeast of Maine. 

 

 

 Ahh yes another very productive post. 

You can see on days like today when the cooling influence of the offshore flow wanes we are right back to upper 60s to near 70° in spots. 
 

[rclab]

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Interesting information. The NYBG labeled it 'Mother of Pearl.'

Good morning Don. Perhaps the beautiful photo you posted is not the original Chicago Peace rose, I thought of.  My mom was a rose aficionado. I planted a peace rose for her in the mid 60’s. Jackson and Perkins still sells them now as they did over 60 years ago. Thank you again Don. The photo helped me remember and I do try to ‘preserve my memories’ as always ….

 

 

 

 

. 

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning Don. Perhaps the beautiful photo you posted is not the original Chicago Peace rose, I thought of.  My mom was a rose aficionado. I planted a peace rose for her in the mid 60’s. Jackson and Perkins still sells them now as they did over 60 years ago. Thank you again Don. The photo helped me remember and I do try to ‘preserve my memories’ as always ….

 

 

 

 

. 

Next time I'm at the NYBG, I'll check where the peace rose bush is. If I recall correctly, it's at the north side of the rose garden. The rose I photographed was near the center.

[SACRUS]

57 / 37 continue with this amazing stretch for this time of the year.  Warmer day today with max into the low 70s in the warm spots otherwise mid - upper 60s.   Mainly dry and the onshore keeps it cooler on and along the coast and warmer inland.  Thu and next Mon look like next warmer days low - mid 70s in the warmest spots otherwise 60s and clear very california like stretch.  Outside another cutoff low it looks mainly dry through the 30th.  Overall near / slightly above normal beyond there mainly by a majority of days +2 to +5 with a few at or -2.  Nie opportunity to dry things out.

 

 

 

  

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 80 (2021)
NYC: 80 (1969)
LGA: 80 (2021)
JFK: 81 (1969)


Lows:

EWR: 31 (1974)
NYC: 31 (1974)
LGA: 32 (1972)
JFK: 33 (1974)

Historical:

 

1770 - An exceedingly great storm struck eastern New England causing extensive coastal damage from Massachusetts to Maine, and the highest tide in 47 years. (David Ludlum)

1770: An exceedingly great storm struck eastern New England causing extensive coastal damage from Massachusetts to Maine, and the highest tide in 47 years.

1835: 6.0 inches of snow fell at Ft. Snelling, MN. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1940: The earliest snow greater than one inch in Washington, DC, fell on October 20, 1940 with 1.4 inches and the second earliest greater than one inch was October 30, 1925 with 2.2 inches. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) (Ref. October Snows by Herb Close)

1952: Central Park in New York City had their earliest measurable snowfall with a half inch falling. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)
 

1983 - Remnants of Pacific Hurricane Tico caused extensive flooding in central and south central Oklahoma. Oklahoma City set daily rainfall records with 1.45 inch on the 19th, and 6.28 inches on the 20th. (17th-21st) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Cold arctic air invaded the Upper Midwest, and squalls in the Lake Superior snowbelt produced heavy snow in eastern Ashland County and northern Iron County of Wisconsin. Totals ranged up to 18 inches at Mellen. In the western U.S., the record high of 69 degrees at Seattle WA was their twenty-fifth of the year, their highest number of record highs for any given year. Bakersfield CA reported a record 146 days in a row with daily highs 80 degrees or above. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Unseasonably warm weather continued in the western U.S. In California, afternoon highs of 96 degrees at Redding and Red Bluff were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Forty-nine cities reported record low temperatures for the date as readings dipped into the 20s and 30s across much of the south central and southeastern U.S. Lows of 32 degrees at Lake Charles LA and 42 degrees at Lakeland FL were records for October, and Little Rock AR reported their earliest freeze of record. Snow blanketed the higher elevations of Georgia and the Carolinas. Melbourne FL dipped to 47 degrees shortly before midnight to surpass the record low established that morning. Showers and thunderstorms brought heavy rain to parts of the northeastern U.S. Autumn leaves on the ground clogged drains and ditches causing flooding. Up to 4.10 inches of rain soaked southern Vermont in three days. Flood waters washed 600 feet of railroad track, resulting in a train derailment. (The National Weather Summary)(Storm Data)

1994: 1994 The rampaging San Jacinto River (20 feet+ higher than normal) caused 8 pipelines carrying various petroleum products to rupture near Houston, TX; the river ignited in flame and smoke which shot 100s of feet into the air. More than 500 (mostly minor) burn/inhalation injuries. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

1996: New Englandwas in the middle of a four day nor'easter which dumped tremendous rainfall totals, especially over eastern sections. 19.19 inches of rain fell at Camp Ellis, ME. 13.03 inches was recorded at Newburyport, MA. Portland, ME set a new all-time 24 hour rainfall record with 13.32 inches. Other rainfall totals included 17.21 inches at Sanford, ME, 12.23 inches at Portsmouth, NH, 11.21 inches at Bedford, MA, and 7.89 inches at Boston, MA. The storm tapped moisture from Hurricane Lili, far to the southeast over the Atlantic, which contributed to the excessive rainfall. The nor'easter also produced high winds along coastal sections. A wind gust to 81 mph was recorded at Little Compton, RI. One person was killed and total damage was over $50 million dollars.(Ref. Wilson Weather History) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

[PhiEaglesfan712]

20 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

2024 reached into the 80's the warmest Halloween on record and 2019 reached close to 80 BUT both 2012 and 2020 Halloweens were cancelled in many towns - 2012 because of power outages and damage from Sandy and 2020 because of Covid and 2012 and 2020 were both one of the coldest Halloweens on record with highs only in the 40's anyways - 2011 had measurable snow a couple days before Halloween

 

Halloween getting cancelled in 2011 and 2012 was perfect timing for me, as I was in my final 2 years of college at Drexel and not a kid. I really despise when college students go all out for Halloween, but I feel bad for the kids that missed out on 2 Halloweens in a row.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Halloween getting cancelled in 2011 and 2012 was perfect timing for me, as I was in college and not a kid. I really despise when college students go all out for Halloween, but I feel bad for the kids that missed out on 2 Halloweens in a row.

2011 wasn't cancelled here 2020 was for covid

 

[psv88]

43.7

[Brian5671]

17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

2011 wasn't cancelled here 2020 was for covid

 

Nothing canceled here-we had it in 2020-but people did firepits at the end of driveways with a bowl of candy-no contact...seems like the firepit tradition has hung on ever since