Strong Nor'Easter/Hybrid Storm Late September 2026

[weathermedic]

LAG gusting to 47 mph

JFK gusting to 44 mph

As of the 10pm OKX weather roundup

[Tatamy]

A station I follow in Fire Island Pines has gusted to 62 mph in the past hour.  My station at Cherry Grove has reached 37 mph.  Things are definitely ramping up.

[wthrmn654]

Upton messaged me saying gear exposure at Montauk, the asos at the airport reporting 46 mph though. So not horribly different. 

[lee59]

67 degrees in Central Park and 55 here

[wthrmn654]

Nearly minor flooding state out here, so far forecasts are looking pretty dang close!  

[Tatamy]

11 hours ago, Rjay said:

3k shouldn't be used in this situation 

Strongly agree.

[Big Jims Videos]

Got cold out here in a hurry as the winds are now approaching 60 mph gusts. Lots of transformers lighting up, zapping noises, and light tree stuff blowing down the streets. It's pretty wild.  

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, hooralph said:

It’s hard to imagine they’re gonna sail right through this.

Sure they will. They did it to me in Sandy. Left the day before landfall. Brooklyn cruise terminal destroyed. They left us tied to a dock in Boston for days.  I rented a car at Logan and drove home

They refused to let us cancel the cruise beforehand and then created such a disaster onboard they refunded the cruise.

[the_other_guy]

36 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

LAG gusting to 47 mph

JFK gusting to 44 mph

As of the 10pm OKX weather roundup

LGA…

[GaWx]

 Power outages are highest in Suffolk as a %, but even there that’s only at 0.5%.

[hooralph]

Rain starting here in Manhattan 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Sounds safe

It gets even more interesting tomorrow is the Harvest Moon the best Full Moon of the entire year and one which often shows a rainbow halo and has the largest tides of the entire year. Tomorrow is also the date when the sunrise and sunset times are exactly 12 hours apart .

 

3 hours ago, Rjay said:

Yup. When I got towards my house the sky was deep purple and it was raining 

Aside from the monk parakeets these skies and rainbows are what I miss most about Long Island .

 

5 hours ago, Yanksfan said:

I was afraid of that as we are starting to get into the meso range. Looks like a doozy of a storm incoming. Good sign for this winter.

Yes if you like rainy noreasters . This would be rain even in the middle of winter aside from elevated areas.

 

 

9 hours ago, jbenedet said:

If not in real time it will happen in the post storm reanalysis

Like December 1994?

9 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Pretty clear on the guidance that the evolution is mid lat cyclone to STC to tropical warm core/STC.

 

Do you remember the noreaster with a hurricane like eye that backed into JFK airport with storm force winds in December 1994? We had mixed precipitation here in the Poconos with that.

11 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, Sandy Hook could reach the 9ft level or a bit higher which  would only require a 3.5 foot surge on top of the 5.5 astronomical level with the full moon tomorrow morning. A 4 foot surge coinciding with the morning height tide would get to the 9.5 foot level.

The back bays of Long Island could see an even higher surge relative to their locations. The models have a tide level in Freeport  forecast close to 8 foot mark. That would approach the Hurricane Irene tide level.
 

 

If it got to 10 feet that would be near historic. 

12 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Hopefully.  It seemed like 97-98 had more nor'easters than any other winter. 

Aside from 1993-94 and 1995-96 the 90s were full of rainy noreasters just like this one. 

13 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

might the start of a string of nor easters with the nino

Yep lots of rain.

13 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hopefully we time one up with enough cold air (despite the strong el nino).

Very difficult to get snow with this kind of track even in the middle of winter.

12 hours ago, jbenedet said:

This already has that eye type feature you only see on sub 975 mb mid latitude cyclones or true STC’s

December 1994?

18 hours ago, Tatamy said:

In scanning through the overnight model runs I am really struck by the remarkable agreement of the forthcoming wind storm about to ravage the area.  Model after model showing gusts to 40 - 60 mph from overnight Friday into Sunday.  It’s not just LI which will get the worst of it.  It includes NYC, NJ, SE NY, even into parts of eastern PA and then into southern New England.  Fully leafed trees and heavy rains look to combine with this to cause widespread power outages.

Expecting 40 plus mph winds up here.

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

Latest tide forecast gets Sandy Hook near the 10th highest tide level tomorrow and highest tide of the 2020s. 
 

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8531680

 

 

How can we rank these? I know it won't get to December 1992 levels that was a once in a lifetime noreaster.  Is there a way to do a combination ranking both including and listing duration, rainfall totals, highest wind speeds, lowest pressure and surge?

14 hours ago, jconsor said:

The NWS water level forecast for Sandy Hook may be conservative.  Consensus of the 3 main forecast models (https://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/sfas/) is for a water level peaking around 9 feet, with potential for 9.5-10 feet in the higher end scenarios.  That could easily put this event as the fourthhighest in the past 60 years.

Yes  I wasnt around for Donna but December 1992 was the worst I've ever seen here.

23 hours ago, TriPol said:

13z Sunday, it's headed west and retrograding. So odd to see a Nor'Easter do this, but then again, it's a hybrid system, not a true Nor'Easter. Think a less powerful version of Sandy/Halloween Storm '91.

I wonder why hybrid storms do this.

It's not because it's a hybrid system it all has to do with the blocking high to the north. Like with all other kinds of storms it's always the High that determines the path a storm takes.

 

 

 

[GaWx]

Due to WEATHER / WIND, there is a Traffic Management Program in effect for traffic arriving La Guardia Airport, New York, NY (LGA). This is causing some arriving flights to be delayed an average of 2 hours and 42 minutes.

[weathermedic]

Atlantic City gusting to 55 mph as per the Fox weather channel 

[oceanctyguy]

Wind gusts last 5 mins Ocean County and south NJ

[wthrmn654]

4.71 feet versus a forecast of 5 feet.  That's fairly close 

[wthrmn654]

71 mph now at Montauk 

[oceanctyguy]

9 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

71 mph now at Montauk 

Crazy shit! Overperforming and not in a good way.

[TriPol]

13 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

71 mph now at Montauk 

Definitely wind advisory criteria. LOL

[oceanctyguy]

Mt Holly upgraded all of the Jersey shore from moderate to major flooding.

[NJwx85]

Raining here. We need an observation thread.

[Snowlover11]

45 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Atlantic City gusting to 55 mph as per the Fox weather channel 

Dont know wind speed but its gusting, im in ac and the winding is whipping around my room at ocean casino im on the 48th floor. Ocean is up passed the dunes and near the boardwalk.

[Rjay]

Tide levels well below expectations on the south shore tn. Should change tomorrow. 

Here's one example:

 

[wthrmn654]

Im thinking that the storms slower then expected idk? Nws said most areas did well forecast wise with some areas falling short tonight

[wthrmn654]

Many wind reports along jersey shore in the 60s and even near 75 mph

[TJW014]

Surf City, NJ with a 74 mph gust. 

[Rjay]

11 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Im thinking that the storms slower then expected idk? Nws said most areas did well forecast wise with some areas falling short tonight

Storm is on schedule

[wthrmn654]

Latest surface  analysis pressure down to 991

[wthrmn654]

5 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Storm is on schedule

Winds seem slow to crank up on the north side, haven't even hit 40 yet 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

Winds seem slow to crank up on the north side, haven't even hit 40 yet 

ISP gusted to 48mph