Strong Nor'Easter/Hybrid Storm Late September 2026

[Rmine1]

9 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

Nobody should want more rain now

SW Suffolk could use some. Things have dried out considerably since the last rain event. Wind is not helping 

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It’s not warm core and anyone that says it is is just hyping. Warm core cyclones don’t behave like this. 

This from the 0Z Euro suite per pro met@vortex95shows a 70-80% chance for tropical development! How do you explain this?

[TriPol]

33 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Don S. in the main September thread is also downplaying this event and I agree with him especially for areas west of Long Island - Long Island and southern/eastern New England remain the regions where heavy flooding rains are more likely. Along the coast down to the Delmarva -coastal flooding -beach erosion -high waves and high winds are the main concern. Upton and Mt. Holly are doing the right thing by down playing it at this time also IMO. 

I don't see Don downplaying it at all. He's said uncertainty exists. That was 12 hours ago. I think if the 12z suites all come in where they've been overnight, the uncertainty will disappear. NOAA hugging the GFS is new to me, but we'll see what they do. I think by 1 PM today, they'll hoist Gale and HWW for Long Island, not just the coastal waters. I think they'll also start flood watches beginning tomorrow at 8 pm for the area as well.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

This from the 0Z Euro suite per pro met@vortex95shows a 70-80% chance for tropical development! How do you explain this?

This will have a subtropical core. So a hybrid system. For coordination and awareness purposes this should probably get a name like they sometimes do with subtropical storms.

 

 

 

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This will have a subtropical core. So a hybrid system. For coordination and awareness purposes this should probably get a name like they sometimes do with subtropical storms.

 

 

 

 Then the NHC should be adding it to its TWOs since those address the chance for both T and ST development. Adding it to its TWOs has been suggested by both JB and @vortex95

[Tatamy]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This will have a subtropical core. So a hybrid system. For coordination and awareness purposes this should probably get a name like they sometimes do with subtropical storms.

 

 

 

If they name it the next name is Gonzalo

[donsutherland1]

19 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I don't see Don downplaying it at all. He's said uncertainty exists. That was 12 hours ago. I think if the 12z suites all come in where they've been overnight, the uncertainty will disappear. NOAA hugging the GFS is new to me, but we'll see what they do. I think by 1 PM today, they'll hoist Gale and HWW for Long Island, not just the coastal waters. I think they'll also start flood watches beginning tomorrow at 8 pm for the area as well.

IMO, the probability of a more significant impact in the NYC area has increased overnight. The uncertainty is lessening.

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

IMO, the probability of a more significant impact in the NYC area has increased overnight. The uncertainty is lessening.

It's going to be a Nor'Easter. We'll get a few inches of rain we don't need right now. Trees will fall. Roads will flood. We'll live! Then, next week, we'll be in the 70s. I'm semi-looking forward to that before it starts getting to sweater weather.

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, TriPol said:

It's going to be a Nor'Easter. We'll get a few inches of rain we don't need right now. Trees will fall. Roads will flood. We'll live! Then, next week, we'll be in the 70s. I'm semi-looking forward to that before it starts getting to sweater weather.

You should break down the areas that will get a few inches - the areas that will get a few showers only and the areas that will get more than a few inches Some areas to the east will have trees falling with significant flooding this is not a uniform event there will be a wide range of outcomes. 

[Brian5671]

13 minutes ago, TriPol said:

It's going to be a Nor'Easter. We'll get a few inches of rain we don't need right now. Trees will fall. Roads will flood. We'll live! Then, next week, we'll be in the 70s. I'm semi-looking forward to that before it starts getting to sweater weather.

I think the impacts at some of the beaches will be pretty bad-days of onshore flow pushing water in before the main event and full moon Saturday to boot.

[Neblizzard]

12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

You should break down the areas that will get a few inches - the areas that will get a few showers only and the areas that will get more than a few inches Some areas to the east will have trees falling with significant flooding this is not a uniform event there will be a wide range of outcomes. 

Should know more after the 12z suite. 

[mob1]

While the HRRR is notoriously too amped and NW at this range, it's too far off of what the 0Z Euro had (though it's far tamer in its latest run) and if other models come in that tucked to the coast I could see this being a more significant wind event than what's currently expected. 

 

[TriPol]

22 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

You should break down the areas that will get a few inches - the areas that will get a few showers only and the areas that will get more than a few inches Some areas to the east will have trees falling with significant flooding this is not a uniform event there will be a wide range of outcomes. 

I "should?" I don't work for the NWS. I'm just someone who has obsessively watched every model run for the past few days. Trying to distract myself from work.